After weeks of waiting and wondering, leaders in both chambers of Congress have announced their intentions with respect to the public option. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is rounding up the votes for a bill with a government insurance plan that will negotiate rates with providers. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is standing behind something similar--with the addition of a clause allowing states to opt out--and is trying to keep his caucus together in the face of unanimous Republican opposition. But what about the rest of reform?
Right now, it's impossible to compare what the Senate is trying to do with what the House is trying to do because Reid hasn't unveiled his bill yet. But though there will surely be some major differences, both proposals will contain some of the same underlying architecture.
The basic theme of health care reform is that insurance would be mandatory, subsidized and regulated. As is the case today, for the first many years after enactment, most people in the country would be insured by their employers--in fact, large and medium-sized businesses would be required to provide insurance for their employees. Uninsured people would either be roped into existing entitlement programs like Medicaid, or required to buy regulated insurance--typically through an "exchange," which, comprised of hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of customers, would theoretically have the bargaining power needed to keep premiums down.
For being handed a captive market, insurers would be faced with a new playing field: they'd be required to sell insurance to all comers, without using prior health conditions or gender as the basis for price discrimination. Though premiums would still vary based on things like age and geography, no two people of the same age in the same area would face the same serious price differentials they often see today. And both the House and the Senate would end the practice of "rescission"--canceling peoples' policies or denying payment once they get sick.
Of course, poor and middle class people would still be on the hook for thousands of dollars a year worth of premiums, so the government would offer tax credits to people below a certain income to help them buy insurance--the lower your income, the greater your subsidy.
Though we can't say for certain how the House and Senate plans will be at odds with one another, some of the key differences are likely to be a). the generosity of the subsidies, b). the way the subsidies and entitlement expansions are paid for, c). the stringency of the mandates, and d). the degree to which private insurers are regulated.
The House bill would give tax credits on a sliding scale to individuals and families living at or below 400 percent of the poverty line. If Reid hews to the bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee, the Senate would cap the subsidies at 300 percent of poverty. The House would expand Medicaid to cover everybody living under 150 percent of the poverty line. Reid's bill would likely limit that expansion to 133 percent.
All these newly covered people will be benefiting from federal money, and that has to be raised from somewhere. Both chambers plan to extract billions (though in different ways and at different levels) from the health care industry, and from inefficiencies in Medicare. But to make up for the remaining billions, the House would impose a surtax on high-income earners. It's unclear what the Senate will do, but the plan that passed the Finance Committee would impose an excise tax on high-end, employer provided insurance policies. This is controversial--unions don't like it because the incidence of the tax could make all benefits more expensive, and industry doesn't like it because it's a tax on them. But by, in essence, taxing health care benefits, people would begin eschewing deluxe insurance policies in exchange for more modest policies and higher salaries. Likewise, as the cost of health care rises, more and more plans would be hit by the tax, raising more revenue over time and "bending the curve" of health care expenditures downward. In other words, wonks like it, but it's extremely difficult politically.
The House's employer and individual mandates would likely be stronger than the Senate's. This would have the dual effect of a). raising more money for subsidies within the exchange, and b). covering more people.
Similarly, the House's bill would make it harder for insurers to exploit loopholes in the new system. Its exchange would be nationwide, giving individuals in all states, big and small, equally impressive bargaining power with insurers. Insurers would be required to provide a fairly robust minimum benefit package, and those insurers that cover mostly healthy people would have to pitch in to help those insurers covering sicker-than-average consumers. And insurers would not be able to charge the elderly wildly more than the young. Though these details in the Senate bill are still being worked out, if they mimic the Finance Committee's language, the exchanges will be state-based, resulting in diminished bargaining power--particularly for small states--and in regulations, imposed by states themselves, that could be significantly less stringent than the House's federal standards would require. These, along with the subsidy provisions, are among the principle reasons reformers prefer the House bill.

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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 1:39 PM
there is still work to do:
The CBO also says a family of four with income of $78,000 in 2016 will on average pay $8,800 in premiums and co-payments of $5,000 a year — 18 percent of the family's income. For lower income people, with an income of $66,000, the total would be 15 percent of its income in 2016
The budget office did not say how insurance costs under the bill compared with the costs if Congress did nothing. The agency has previously estimated that premiums alone for families buying coverage on their own would average $11,000 in 2016. And that coverage is somewhat less extensive than what would be required by the House bill. [so there are many positives for the House bill over the possible Senate version.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/health/policy/03health.html?_r=1&ref=politics
the "evergreening" provisions in the House bill is a big giveaway to Pharma. It should be taken out.
the coverge of prayer treatments is wrong-headed and weird.
it'll be intereseting to watch this all play out. I'm glad TPM is here.
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josephcast
November 4, 2009 1:56 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Everyone watch the subsidies! They are very likely to be inadequate for our struggling middle class, which is struggling even more so these days:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=2922
"Consider an illustrative family of three in which the father earns $35,000 from a small retailer and the mother earns $11,000 as a part-time sales clerk. Neither receives health care through his or her employer. The couple has a daughter in elementary school. The couple has avoided accruing credit card debt but has no life insurance or retirement savings. After paying basic expenses,[4] this family has about $650 a month to cover costs for clothes, car repairs and maintenance, various other household expenses, restaurant meals, and any hobbies or activities — as well as the family’s health care expenses. Under the Finance Committee bill, this family could pay $360 — 55 percent of the remaining monthly amount — to cover the cost of premiums. In comparison, under the Senate HELP bill, this family would pay $214, or 33 percent of its remaining monthly budget, for premiums. Under the House bill, the family would pay monthly premiums of about $305, or 47 percent of its remaining monthly income.
Given the high amounts that moderate-income people like the family described above would have to pay for coverage under the Finance bill, a substantial number of these people might decide they would be better off remaining uninsured. As noted, people with incomes between 220 and 400 percent of the poverty line, who would be eligible for premium credits to help pay for coverage but be required to pay more than 8 percent of income in premium costs, would be exempt from the penalty if they declined to purchase coverage."
Not good enough.
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HP2
November 4, 2009 2:11 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Based on your calculations 18% of $78,000 would be $14040. I assume that would be after tax dollars. So if the after tax income is $65,000(just an assumption) the take home would be down to a mere $51000.00.
The insurance would cost almost $1200.00 per month and that is if there is no preexisting condition in the family. I assume preexisting condition would result in higher premiums. Right now a family of four can get insurance well under $1200.00 monthly premium and in some cases even with a preexisting condition premiums are lower.
So the small business owners, independent contractors, and other self-employed with reasonable income would still be screwed under the new plan.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 2:28 PM in reply to HP2
Just for the sake of clarity, those are not my calculations, but the CBO. No worries. Just being clear.
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Kyle H
November 5, 2009 2:03 PM in reply to HP2
$1200 premium + co-pay per month.
Which, for a family of four, that's about right. $700-$800 for the insurance, $400-$500 for the co-pay.
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Mad Marie
November 4, 2009 2:31 PM in reply to Indie Pro
'the coverge of prayer treatments is wrong-headed and weird.'
Yeah. It's weird being Muslim too. Oh, and black. I bet it was weird when some people didn't want to go to war in the 40's. How about those American Indians. And those suffragettes, they were darn right unfeminine.
I could go on. But for those of us who don't believe in medical treatment, who consider it to be dangerous and harmful, it's not a laughing matter. We are going to be forced to pay exorbitant fees for something we don't want and don't use, simply because the majority of Americans are dismissive of anything else.
This whole health care debate has been a real eye-opener in terms of minority rights. They don't really exist, do they?
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lousgirl84
November 4, 2009 2:35 PM in reply to Mad Marie
No they don't!!!!!
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 2:42 PM in reply to Mad Marie
what a weird response. Minority rights?
how odd to charge for prayer, and then to demand insurance pay for it. Hardly minority rights.
It also offers a window for other non-scientific, or medically proven groups to seek the same.
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Mad Marie
November 4, 2009 2:56 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Thank you. You just proved my point.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 3:00 PM in reply to Mad Marie
sincerely, what point is that? If you have a problem with the mandate, more power to you.
If you wanted to seek an exemption from the mandate based on religion, I'm all for that.
Demanding insurance pay for an unproven, unscientific method is silly. I'm sure many new agers, rattlesnake handlers etc would love the same, but they shouldn't get it.
As a minorty you should seek exemption from the mandate based on Religion. That is justice.
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Mad Marie
November 4, 2009 4:04 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Sorry, but you don't have the facts right.
First, the option being considered doesn't demand anything. It asks that the insurers 'consider' covering it.
Second, many of them have been doing just that for decades, w/o any 'demands' being made on them.
Now, those who only accept the destructive and dangerous route of medicine are demanding that they stop.
As I said, you've proved my point.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 5:13 PM in reply to Mad Marie
mince words and cry minority rights all you want, this is about conferring status and medical legitimacy on a practices that is outside science.
if your concern was truly about:
We are going to be forced to pay exorbitant fees for something we don't want and don't use
you'd seek an expemption from the mandate. But instead you are looking to the govt to legitimize a faith based practice.
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onecrappyusername
November 4, 2009 5:44 PM in reply to Mad Marie
You have the right to seek redress through the justice system or political action. You have the right to leave the country.
You do not have a right to ignore your civil responsibilities. They are the price for participating in a democratic society.
You are a beneficiary of medicine through the reduction of diseases such as smallpox and polio. You have friends and most likely family whose lives have been saved or will be saved by medicine.
You are not a victim.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 2:56 PM in reply to Indie Pro
tht should be "medically unproven"
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rbeats
November 4, 2009 3:18 PM in reply to Mad Marie
As an Atheist I find your comment absolutely laughable.
I suppose then that I should feel OK to pay for "faith healers" the very same people who stood around that 11 year old girl who died, instead of taking her to a doctor.
Guess what, those barbaric thugs asked for full payment from their parents after their kid died.
I for one will not be forced pay for a glorification of barbarism.
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Mad Marie
November 4, 2009 3:56 PM in reply to rbeats
You won't be. I will.
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jimbomoron
November 4, 2009 2:48 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Absolutely. I've been trying to say this for months, yet everyone chooses to overlook this, and focus on the public option, as if the public option encapsulates grandness of Democratic aspirations the last 60 years.
The truth is this bill is going to have to be revisited because of the subsidies and the minimum actuarial value. A $2/pack tax on cigarettes, according to the Commonwealth Fund, will raise $322 billion over 10 years. A $0.05 tax on a 12-oz. can of beer will raise $62 billion over 10 years. Maybe that can't be done this year because you don't want to offend certain congressional delegations, but that can be done next year or in two years.
It's a lot easier to paint a room in a house than to rework its foundation. The same is true of this bill. This bill is more about establishing a good foundation than anything else. The community rating, minimum benefits package, and the Exchange, for example, would probably never be ruled in order by the reconcilliation process. But in future years a $322 billion tax increase on cigarettes and a $62 billion tax on alcohol used to pay for $385 billion more of subsidies could be ruled in order by the reconcilliation process because it reduces the deficit by the requisite amount.
So we may get far less than we want, but if this bill fails, history will judge us as failing to confront the greatest moral challenge of our time. So let's pass this bill, for the worst we can say if we pass this bill is that we have bent the moral arc of the universe a little bit more towards justice.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 2:52 PM in reply to jimbomoron
So we may get far less than we want, but if this bill fails, history will judge us as failing to confront the greatest moral challenge of our time. So let's pass this bill, for the worst we can say if we pass this bill is that we have bent the moral arc of the universe a little bit more towards justice.
when there is an actual bill, out of conference, and we see what it actually is, that is the time for deciding what is the best thing to do. That is, if we are afforded the opportunity to read and digest the bill before it is enacted, being as many are like you and just want something, anything passed. I'm not one of those people.
If a room is sinking due to the foundation, painting the walls is folly.
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jimbomoron
November 4, 2009 3:07 PM in reply to Indie Pro
I have higher standards than passing anything. I think there has to be a foundation, and the House bill certainly has that. Sure, I'd like the subsidies and the minimum benefits package to be much, much more generous, but it's much easier to build off of something than nothing. I think the House bill has a sufficient foundation to be passed.
My sense -- and I'm putting the cart before the horse, here -- is that the House should get its insurance rating rules, its minimum benefits package, its individual mandate penalty, its pay-or-play provisions, and its Exchange with its regulations on the Exchange. The Senate should get the MedPAC provision and some form of reducing the tax subsidy for employer-provided health insurance (i.e., treating employer-provided health benefits above some level as taxable income).
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 3:11 PM in reply to jimbomoron
We'll have to see how it plays out. I'd say at this point, we don't know whether the PO in the Senate will be opt out, opt in, or whether it'll survive at all.
Reid has kept his bill close to his chest.
There is still a ways to go.
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jimbomoron
November 4, 2009 3:26 PM in reply to Indie Pro
As you know, I'm not big one way or another on the public option. I don't believe the grandness of Democratic aspirations over the last 60 years boils down to the inclusion or exclusion of the public option. That would be small. I think what Democrats have been fighting for the last 60 years is to prevent every American from having large medical expenses for basic services, and to shield them from its consequences (i.e., bankruptcy, death). I see the public option as having a marginal role at best in what Democrats have aspired for the last 60 years. To me, the most important provisions are the affordability provisions (what percentage of a person's income is someone going to have to spend on health care) and the provisions preventing insurers from continuing to compete on risk selection rather than on price and quality, which is what this legislation is designed to do. That's contained in the community rating, the individual mandate, the minimum benefits package, the subsidies, the Exchange, and the employer mandate. So I'm going to be concentrating on the big picture -- not who is winning the pundits' political debate in Washington.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 3:36 PM in reply to jimbomoron
in all honesty, I don't believe the grandness of Democratic aspirations over the last 60 years boils down this HCR.
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jimbomoron
November 4, 2009 4:09 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Well, sure. Democrats have aspired over the last 60 years to use the common good in order to perfect the union into a fairer and more just society. That's been the grandness of the party's aspirations the last 60 years. Universal health insurance is such an example that embodies Democratic dreams over the last 60 years. The House bill, while not perfect by any means, should bring the smell of roses to any fellow Democrat.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 5:14 PM in reply to jimbomoron
60 years ago, it was the dream of insurance companies to force people to buy their profucts, not the democrats, though maybe I'm wrong.
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hollywood
November 8, 2009 2:56 AM in reply to jimbomoron
The more perfect union is absolutely the goal of the Democratic Party. Yes the last 3 generations of Democrats have fought and won for inclusion and fairness that we now almost take for granted. Just look at them, a gorgeous rich tapestry of humanity gathered over two centuries across North America.
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Andreams
November 4, 2009 8:06 PM in reply to jimbomoron
Can we please start taxing something besides cigarettes? I realize they're unhealthy but so are items with sugar, alchohol in any form, and a lot of other things.
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Tanjaoui
November 4, 2009 8:24 PM in reply to Andreams
Yes, they should make it broadly based. All in.
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hollywood
November 8, 2009 2:45 AM in reply to Tanjaoui
Yes yes yes! They should follow up this healthcare bill with taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar. It would be so god damned smart to use these taxes to pay for more comprehensive healthcare for average Americans. Pennies of tax on negative substances put to use in preventative and early detection medicine would give fat, sick, broke Americans a chance at becoming a much healthier happier more productive nation. An excellent investment. Win win win.
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Acharn
November 5, 2009 1:27 AM in reply to jimbomoron
I hear you, and I almost agree with you. The thing is, you are right that this bill, if passed, will create the foundation. If we pass a bill with a weakened public option that enriches the insurance companies but doesn't provide real competition, it's NOT going to be easy to change. In fact, the insurance companies will fight as hard as they are this year to prevent a change. If the public option in the final bill in the House doesn't provide for a substantial number of customers in the public option, if people are too restricted from taking the public option, if the public option is prohibited from negotiating with providers or drug companies, then we have got to bite the bullet and get our representatives to vote AGAINST it. As hard, as heartbreaking, as that would be, if we let a bad foundation get laid down it will be another 60 years before that can be undone.
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Chris
November 4, 2009 3:26 PM in reply to Indie Pro
I agree Indie. Glad to see TPM here too.
You know paying for something that you never use really does suck. There's this "weird" thing in the South, where they used to enslave black people and only until recently were they given full equality, that provides them really cheap electricity entirely owned by the government. I personally don't benefit from this government owned entity but I hear it's really nice. It's definitely something that I pay for and never ever use.
Indie, glad to see you around.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 3:41 PM in reply to Chris
thank you, and back atcha.
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erica
November 4, 2009 6:11 PM in reply to Indie Pro
We've indexed the house bill at
www.healthcarebillindex.com
Senate bill will be available online as soon as it becomes available in the correct format.
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lousgirl84
November 4, 2009 2:15 PM
"Though we can't say for certain how the House and Senate plans will be at odds with one another, some of the key differences are likely to be a). the generosity of the subsidies, b). the way the subsidies and entitlement expansions are paid for, c). the stringency of the mandates, and d). the degree to which private insurers are regulated."
More speculation. Yawnnnn
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jimbomoron
November 4, 2009 2:36 PM
Good work, Brian. Want to compare your diary to my diary analyzing the contents of the House bill?
I did my own analysis a few days ago.
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Brian Beutler
November 4, 2009 3:46 PM in reply to jimbomoron
Sure!
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Brian Beutler
November 4, 2009 3:47 PM in reply to jimbomoron
Sure!
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xargaw
November 4, 2009 5:39 PM
What we have is healthcare by committee, never a good idea. Everyone in the effort has turf to protect and it turns out, it is always at the expense of the consumer. If we had medicare for all, you would have younger people that don't use a lot of healthcare in the system which would act as a cost control for everyone. It is would be cheaper. We already know how to administer it and people love it. Sadly, there is no big lobby for the idea because there is no big payoff for the greedly, only a great program for all Americans. The current debate is a crime and embarrassment to the people in this country.
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rwc
November 4, 2009 6:37 PM in reply to xargaw
sadly, true, about a lot of things, not just health care.
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sborsher
November 4, 2009 6:27 PM
I wasn't aware that the public had any options; at least no legal ones. I'm just waiting to see the fully tricked out version of the bill. Every time a bill (or portion thereof) comes back to life, some politician gets his slice of ham inserted. The bigger the bill, the fatter the pig.
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artgurrl
November 4, 2009 11:11 PM
This health care "debate" is a sham. What we need is Medicare for all. Employer and Individual mandates are nothing more than more profits for the already bloated health insurance industry that keeps ripping us all off. We have a system in place already and all we have to do is take off the age limit of 'over 65' off the already existing Medicare bill. End of debate!
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Bruce Webb
November 4, 2009 11:51 PM
If Medicare was actually financed by premiums the debate might be over. But it isn't, premiums pay for roughly half of Parts B and D or about a quarter of Medicare overall. The other half of B and D is paid by General Fund transfer while Part A is paid for by a tax on current workers.
So it is not as simple as "open Medicare to all", you need to have some financing in place. And HR676 is quite vague on this. The bill identifies three sources of funding but has no percentages or dollar figures attached. For good reason, because once those numbers come out I predict the debate will just be starting.
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hoppycalif2
November 5, 2009 1:10 AM in reply to Bruce Webb
It's too hard. We can't do it. This is the no-can-do nation. We can send a trillion dollars to the Wall Street corporations that brought us a huge recession, but we can't find one tenth of that money to help 100% of the citizens of the country. It is just too hard. We can't do it.
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josephcast
November 5, 2009 2:26 AM in reply to hoppycalif2
Actually, that's close to $13 trillion we've spent on Wall St.
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MT from CC
November 5, 2009 1:55 AM
Bruce - We are not talking about Medicare. We are talking about Medicare for All. One reason Medicare is going broke is that the pool consists only of the most medical needy, the elderly. Open the system to all -- mandate participation for all -- pay the premium equivalents into the system, and we will achieve a much wider, lower risk ppol that allows for savings over the long haul while putting an end to abusive practices like excessive claim denial, coverae denial for pre-existing conditions, post-sickness cancellation for unrelated non-disclosure, etc. And put us somewhere in the league of all of the other modern civilized nations. The losers -- health insurance companies day one, big pharma over the long haul, for profit medical conglomerates, greedy doctors, teabaggers (for forcing healthcare down their pseudo-libertarian throats so that everybody can be covered. The winners -- everybody else.
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Stephanie Hunter
November 6, 2009 9:09 PM
And how does the public option work? Very well actually...http://cli.gs/23yYaM/
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exjournalist
November 8, 2009 3:13 AM
Well, I don't know WHAT to think right now, but I just wanted to commend Brian on a well-written piece that bottom-lined the whole thing for this time-starved sideliner. Harder than it looks, folks.
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