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Tomorrow Could Be A Really Big Day For Health Care--Here's Why

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Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been trading options and numbers with the CBO for weeks now, and they're reportedly nearly done. A final analysis on a complete package could be available as early as tomorrow. If that happens, it will be yet another big day for Senate Democrats as they struggle to reach consensus over landmark health care reform legislation.

Once it's unveiled, and the bill meets daylight, it will be crunch time for conservative Democrats--most notably Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln--who have been withholding their commitment to supply the bill much-needed procedural votes until they've had a chance to see it and hear from CBO.

Reid has been working hand in glove with CBO, so it would be a major surprise if the bill he unveils isn't projected to require $900 billion in new spending or less, and doesn't lower the deficit in both the near or long term. Meeting those guidelines has become a sine qua non of reform.

The Associated Press reported today that Reid is considering a small increase in the Medicare payroll tax for income over $250,000--either a sign that he's scaling back the controversial excise tax on small businesses, or that the bill has become somewhat more expensive in the merging process, and he needs more revenue, or both.

Reid has insisted for weeks that the bill will include a public option (with an opt-out clause for states), despite pressure from some in his own caucus to strip it out, and it's expected to remain in the bill, though Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) has been working on a version of the triggered public option, suggesting he isn't confident Reid will have the 60-votes to either move the bill to the floor for debate, or bring it to an up or down vote.


Comments (38) | Join the Conversation!

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November 12, 2009 6:25 PM   

I'm a lot less concerned with Nelson, Landrieu and Lincoln than I am with that prick Lieberman.

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November 12, 2009 11:13 PM    in reply to mans_best_friend

Yes! I have the same revulsion to Liebermouse...the others are non-entities.

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CJ

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November 12, 2009 6:47 PM   

One word: reconciliation.

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November 12, 2009 9:11 PM    in reply to CJ

If the intransigent senators remain intransigent, Reid will have to. Reconciliation will require having to sit through a few hundred objections by the GOP, but if they can push through mark-up of the bill, they can last through this.

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November 12, 2009 10:28 PM    in reply to Ethan

Heh, I think we could sit through weeks of complaining if it would end in viable health care reform.

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November 13, 2009 3:19 AM    in reply to matyra

Agreed.

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November 12, 2009 6:48 PM   

How about a small tax on war profiteers, Harry? If we weren't fighting all these free wars, you'd have plenty of money for healthcare.

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November 12, 2009 6:50 PM   

I don't see how they can do it without reconciliation.

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November 12, 2009 7:29 PM    in reply to timba

Lieberman, Nelson, Bayh, Landrieu, Lincoln, Conrad all seem to be against the PO to varying degrees. So assume all would be against using the reconciliation route, do you really believe there is not another five senators would would be against using such an end-around measure? Pryor, Warner, Webb, McCaskill, Baucus...

Not to mention even if you have 50 votes plus Biden, the Republicans would make a HUGE stink, the bill would have to be cut up into many pieces many of which the GOP would flilbuster and stretch the reform out for months and months.

I just don't believe reconciliation is a reasonable or realistic option.

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November 12, 2009 9:44 PM    in reply to Walter Mitty

The other problem with reconcilliation is that the spending authorization has to be renewed after five years. If the Republicans regain control of congress by that point....

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November 12, 2009 7:36 PM   

The PO will be stripped out and Olympia's trigger inserted in its place on an amendment vote. That's been the plan since day 1. Reid knew he had to include it, politically (to save his own sorry arse), but also knew it would not survive. That's why Lieberman is the least of his problems. He's part of the solution.

I'm not going to complain as long as it's in the final bill after reconciliation. It better be! Or I'm launching a latte protest!

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November 12, 2009 11:17 PM    in reply to syncro

I'm missing something. In what way does this scenario make Liebermouse part of the solution?

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November 13, 2009 7:33 AM    in reply to syncro

If its in the bill as a trigger, it might as well not be in the bill at all. The trigger will never get pulled. Its just a way for the Democrats to try and fool people into thinking they "did" HCR.

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November 12, 2009 7:41 PM   

Shouldn't the title read "Tomorrow could be a really big day for PRIVATE health care"?

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November 12, 2009 7:50 PM   

Here's a possibility, don't know how likely though.
Step 1, the "final" bill that gets through the meat grinder does these things:
1) Prohibits exclusions for pre-existing conditions.
2) Prohibits exclusions for yearly or lifetime expenses.
3) Individual mandates.
4) Subsidies for (some) who can't afford coverage.
5) Some method, probably inadequate, to provide coverage for those who don't get it through their work.
6) Not much else, i.e. no effective public option or cost containment.

Progressives vote for it because they know what step 2 is.
Blue dogs vote for it because it allows them to continue their cognitive dissonance of claiming opposition to a robust public option to "save money and prevent increased debt."

And Lieberman, Snowe or some retiring R votes for it, because it doesn't have a public option.

So, we get universal health care out of step one, that is too expensive and going to get worse.

Then, to address costs and only costs, which is a budget matter, a second bill is introduced next year, with robust public option, medicare for all, Wyden plan, or something else that really, truly undermines the private insurance/PHRMa/fee for services, rather than fee for results status quo gets introduced as step 2. And THAT is of course, exactly what reconciliation is designed for!

Sigh.

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rwc

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November 12, 2009 8:28 PM    in reply to Mr.E.

I love your plan

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November 12, 2009 9:44 PM    in reply to Mr.E.

I think you are right.

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November 12, 2009 10:46 PM    in reply to Mr.E.

You fail to mention how you are going to get the robust public option next year when we couldn't get it this year?

Are you assuming that there will be an influx of Progressives in the senate? Or do you think conservative dems are too nervous about 2010 mid-terms?

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November 13, 2009 1:12 AM    in reply to Viva!America!

When the HCR debate started, even Rs were saying that they agreed with 80% of the plan. That's the part that is step 1. That part can overcome a senate filibuster. If a public option is introduced by itself, solely as a cost-saving measure, it can be attached to a budget and cannot be filibustered, so it only needs 50 +1, making Nelson, Landrieu, Lieberman and seven other Ds irrelevant.

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November 13, 2009 7:39 AM    in reply to Mr.E.

Your plan presumes Obama or Reid even want a public option. If you judge their actions rather than their words, its hard to see hoew you reach that conclusion.

They want a feather in their cap. "Look! We passed HCR reform!" They're counting on most people being ignorant enough about what they actually passed to believe they really did something good.

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November 13, 2009 8:58 AM    in reply to cawleybo

B fucking S!!!!!

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November 12, 2009 7:55 PM   

Question: How feasible would it be for interested states to create their own quasi-national, opt-in, possibly robust, public plan should the feds fail to do so?

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November 12, 2009 9:28 PM    in reply to Kevin Sutton

Extremely feasible. We already have it in VT. Any state resident, any age - only requirement is that you don't have insurance available at work - apply, send premium, your covered. Catamount Healthplan- statewide operated by BCBS of VT but fully sponsored and directed by the state of VT.

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November 12, 2009 9:45 PM    in reply to unknowncitizen

How expensive are premiums? And why doesn't the state administer it itself, instead of using BCBS?

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November 12, 2009 10:06 PM    in reply to El Puerco

For a single person making: Catamount Health Will Cost*:
$1,359-$1,586/month $60/mo
$1,586-$1,812/month $65/mo
$1,812-$2,039/month $110/mo
$2,039-$2,265/month $135/mo
$2,265-$2,492/month $160/mo
$2,492-$2,718/month $185/mo
Over $2,718/month $393/mo
Two-person plan $786.22
Family plan $1,100.79
Single-parent plan $746.90 (MVP only)


I don't know why the state has insurance companies administer it, and I just noticed on the price page that MVP offers the plan as well (apparently, insurance companies are actualy interested in competing for administering PUBLIC health insurance!) Oh, and the plan looks very favorable benefitswise $250 annual deductible, 80/20 until $75) out of pocket, totally free preventive visits. Wish my plan which requires a compulsory $6.50/hr employer contribution was that good.

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November 13, 2009 7:41 AM    in reply to unknowncitizen

Excuse me. All plans in VT participate in Catamount. Not just BCBS.

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November 13, 2009 1:17 AM    in reply to Kevin Sutton

For states like Vt., Hawaii or Mass, it is feasible, but still a battle. Individual states can be good at experimenting with various reform approaches, but are not big enough on their own to bring down costs overall, except maybe NY, CA Texas, and it is unlikely any of them could approve a single payer plan.

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November 12, 2009 8:02 PM   

The bill doesn't lower the deficit in the near or long term. I though we were concerned about raising the deficit not lowering it.

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November 13, 2009 2:00 PM    in reply to ottis

And you actually believe that the shit sandwich and the table now will lower the deficit???

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November 12, 2009 9:48 PM   

Why don't more states try to implement health care reform - including single payer - on their own? The Canadian single payer system began as a provincial plan in Saskatchewan. It gradually spread to other provinces, and only became federally mandated in 1970, 40 years after the original plan. Even today, each province administers and provides most of the funding for their own single payer system.

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November 12, 2009 10:25 PM    in reply to El Puerco

Yeah, by the way, since VT has already almost acheived the affordability for all goal (we don't have a way to get those who refuse to buy it onto a plan though) we are deep into the struggle for a statewide single payor plan. What would help is an amendment like one from Dennis Kucinich (that didn't make it in) that would recognize individual states rights to adopt single payor on there own. We got the same ex union ball rolling, sometimes you gotta say wtf right?

http://www.workerscenter.org/node/156

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November 12, 2009 10:55 PM   

I am sick sick sick of this crap. Lieberdick and a lot of his buddies have been on the job for years, some for decades and have not done one iota about this and now they try to stop this now because its too expensive/too much/too soxialeesteec/too whatever. Hey, jerks, if y'all had done something about it even a decade ago we would not be in this situation. When do these pigs get their insurance pulled?

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November 12, 2009 11:12 PM   

Here's an idea: Suppose the choices are made on the basis of what's best for the citizen's (aka 'taxpayers', aka 'voters'). Then, we'd have a strong (aka 'robust') public option, pharmaceutical prices negotiated, money (aka 'funding') for health care providers and not insurers. How about the media, politicians and the White House (just any one of them) take a leadership position aligned with the citizen's best interests. I bet they'd get public support. Hey, it's just an idea.

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November 13, 2009 1:27 AM   

One more thought. Any program strong enough to bend the cost curve must be widely available. An opt-out is not the end of the world because it is most likely that few, if any, state politicians who would be willing to immolate their political careers to prevent their voters to have the OPTION of a public plan that could save them money. Rhetoric aside, few would be foolish enough to take away something that voters in neighboring states had. Remember medicare was originally opt-out and no one did.

On the other hand, to opt in takes political will, which means risk, which means it won't happen in many states, ironically the same states with the poorest, least insured and unhealthiest people. Similarly, triggers are a fancy way of saying it ain't never gonna happen. Historically lots of bills have included triggers, and those triggers never seem to get pulled. The only way changes happen automatically is when the changes are automatic, or like the Bush tax cuts, had a built in expiration date.

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November 13, 2009 7:30 AM   

Every time the Right screams about potential taxes as this bill makes its way along, let's please remind them who robbed the treasury in the first place.

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November 13, 2009 2:10 PM    in reply to Verified

You should be screaming too. The tax man doesn't give a rats ass if your a Pub or a Crat.

On another note... does it really not bother anybody that if you don't buy into this that you will go to jail? That's really ok?

Do you really want to expand the power of Govt to tell you what you have to purchase?

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November 13, 2009 8:57 AM   

This is off topic, but why isn't TPM covering this story?

http://rawstory.com/2009/11/sestak-coburn-shameful/

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November 13, 2009 9:38 AM    in reply to lousgirl84

I agree. This should be covered by TPM and msm but it seems everyone but Rachel Maddow is ignoring it. I'm also afraid this could happen to health care reform.

What I don't understand is how, if there are 60 votes, one person could hold up the veteran's bill? Surely there are 60 votes for that out there.

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