The NY-23 special election saw an amazing political phenomenon, with the right wing taking down a moderate Republican, as grassroots conservatives mobilize against a traditionally more cautious party establishment. So what are some other races out there?
We're not talking about any old crowded Republican primary -- for example, the fields right now in New Hampshire and Nevada are still taking shape -- though of course those races could potentially become Hoffmanized down the road. We're talking about races in which a push from the right can upset the balance of a race, pushing out an establishment-favored candidate due to insufficient conservatism.
Florida: Crist vs. Rubio
The Club For Growth, which heavily backed Hoffman, has made the Florida Senate race a new priority, endorsing the more conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio over moderate Gov. Charlie Crist, who had supported the stimulus and campaigned for it alongside President Obama. (Interestingly enough, Crist now says he didn't endorse the stimulus, but was simply working to get the best possible deal for Florida. The Rubio camp and his backers, as you can imagine, aren't taking that for an answer.)
Utah: Incumbent GOP Sen. Bennett, And Potential Challenger TBD
Another race on the horizon, Club For Growth executive director David Keating told us, is the Republican race against GOP Sen. Robert Bennett. The Utah GOP nominations can actually be determined at the convention itself -- if a candidate gets over 60% of the state delegate vote then there is no primary at all, whether it would involve a challenger or even an incumbent being shut out -- and this convention and possible primary could be a heated race.
"He sponsored health care legislation that would greatly expand the role and scope of the federal government," said Keating. "Last time I looked, he voted for every single appropriations bill that implemented the Obama budget. So on fiscal issues, he's been pretty much a disaster."
There had previously been a challenger in the person of state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff. However, Shurtleff dropped out last week, because of a family health crisis involving his daughter. "We never met with him [Shurtleff], so I can't say whether we ever formed any opinion about him," said Keating. "But I'm confident that by the time this develops as a race, there'll be several good candidates to choose from."
California: Fiorina Vs. DeVore
The California Senate primary could be a big race, between former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and state Rep. Chuck DeVore. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has endorsed DeVore, while Fiorina has the establishment backing of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Minority Whip Jon Kyl, and 2008 presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- but she also has another big conservative name on board, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK).
Cao Off The Hook?
Interestingly, we found out that Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA), the only Republican to vote for the House Democrats' health care bill, may be immune to the threat of a primary challenge. His district is so Democratic, and he himself faces a tough time getting re-elected, that it would be difficult for a right-wing challenger to gain any money that could be spent elsewhere.
Ohio: Ganley Courting Tea Parties Against Portman
In Ohio, former Rep. Rob Portman is the Republican favorite for this open GOP-held seat, but he faces a challenge from auto dealer Tom Ganley, who in turn is openly courting the Tea Party vote. Polls still put Portman ahead -- though with very high undecideds so let's wait and see whether anything comes of it.
Mission Already Accomplished In PennsylvaniaThe Pennsylvania Republican primary was going to be a big race, of course, with former Rep. Pat Toomey running against moderate Sen. Arlen Specter -- who then switched to the Democrats this past April, and now faces a Democratic primary challenge from Rep. Joe Sestak. If anything, this GOP-primary-that-wasn't was a huge warning shot about things to come, and quite possibly the Democratic primary could end up sending the same message.
Pre-Emptive Tea Partying?
There are some key dogs that haven't barked, too, in the form of previously-moderate Republicans now behaving in a much more right-wing fashion, essentially preempting any threat from the right. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) is running for President Obama's former Senate seat, and has changed his position on carbon emission, and voted against the health care bill. He's even been seeking Sarah Palin's endorsement, after he'd previously badmouthed her during the 2008 election.
Another example is former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT), who is running in a crowded primary field to take on Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd. Simmons used to be much more moderate -- he had a strong pro-choice record during his time in Congress, for example -- but he now speaks at Tea Parties and even inserted a tea bag into his pocket Constitution!
The Maybes: Primary Campaigns Yet To Develop
There are other contested GOP primaries In, Nevada, New Hampshire and Connecticut. In Nevada, former state GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden is facing former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian. In New Hampshire, former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte faces businessmen Jim Bender and William Binnie, and 1996 GOP gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne. In Connecticut, it's a five-way race: Former Rep. Rob Simmons, former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, stockbroker and financial pundit Peter Schiff, former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. No right/middle divides have truly emerged yet in these races. But who knows, a lot can happen as the candidates set out to define themselves -- and each other.

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Mr.E.
November 9, 2009 6:04 PM
Is there a safe place to watch a circular firing squad?
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jpaese
November 9, 2009 7:14 PM in reply to Mr.E.
From above! LOL
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matyra
November 9, 2009 7:14 PM
Pa:
I think that there's a distinction between the eschewing the opportunism Specter's switch espouses and the GOP purge. Specter thought that he'd be welcomed, but it doesn't work that way.Reply | Flag Abuse
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Ward Report
November 9, 2009 8:57 PM in reply to matyra
Specter's entrance into the Democratic party might have gone a little better for him had he not been a giant jackass at the time he switched arrogantly insulting the Democrats every time someone stuck a mic in his face and being stripped of his seniority as a result. Just sayin'
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mmanion
November 9, 2009 7:20 PM
Where is the pushback from the moderate arm of the party? Aren't these the guys, after all, with the deep pockets? Can the pandering go on indefinitely, with the RNC (inexplicably) accepting CFG interference in party business, ala NY 23? Michael Steele appears willing to sell out indefinitely, but it's hard to believe that wealthy and powerful party moderates will put up with being treated like this much longer. Sheesh, Huckabee is starting to look like the voice of reason on the right.
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geofu54
November 9, 2009 8:27 PM in reply to mmanion
They are an endagered spicies.
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JNagarya
November 10, 2009 9:49 AM in reply to geofu54
It has a moderate arm? You mean the neo-Nazis who wear civilian clothes?
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sheerahkahn
November 9, 2009 9:05 PM in reply to mmanion
We left.
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Bravo_Kilo
November 9, 2009 9:19 PM in reply to sheerahkahn
Indeed.
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JNagarya
November 10, 2009 9:51 AM in reply to sheerahkahn
Conundrum:
The left left that which has always been so far to the right that it has never had a left.
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SS247
November 9, 2009 7:54 PM
Teabagged the Constitution? That's treason!
Despite the fact that the conservative wing of the GOP is completely backwards (to put it lightly), I have to commend them for at least sticking to their guns. They're sticking to their ideology as opposed to selling out to get elected (although they think this is how they will get elected). I wish the liberal democrats (and the President) would stick to they're beliefs sometimes instead of selling out.
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commie atheist
November 9, 2009 8:16 PM
I don't think I'll ever get tired of looking at that pinwheel-eyed, yellow-toothed sapsucker.
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Ward Report
November 9, 2009 9:00 PM
Is there a Democrat in Florida who can seriously compete for the seat? I have no idea but have the sense that Crist popularity has scared off serious challengers in which case conservatives have nothing to lose challenging Crist.
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SkippyFlipjack
November 9, 2009 9:04 PM
Did they retouch that photo of doug hoffmann? he looks awful, with the yellow teeth and red face. not flattering.
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elle a
November 9, 2009 9:21 PM
is there no other picture of that hoffman guy?
pardon me, but he looks such a dumb fuck in this one, its just cruel and unusual punishment...for tpm readers to keep coming across this picture unawares.
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AJM
November 10, 2009 8:03 AM in reply to elle a
TPM has a penchant for using unflattering photographs. Research has shown that voters and juries respond more favorably to the better looking. This is an irrational basis on which to judge who will make the best policy decisions.
That said, I once thought the picture was so bad that I should complain. Fortunately, I stopped in time and did not inadvertently make a fool of myself -- in that particular case, the photo turned out to be the idiot's campaign photo!
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RobbyLove
November 9, 2009 9:41 PM
Hoffman...He smiles and I can't believe it's not butter.
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terje
November 9, 2009 9:58 PM
This post seems focused on the Senate, but there are plenty of options in House and Gubernatorial races as well. Some other potentially big right wing primaries next year:
Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) is facing several serious challengers for re-nomination. Inglis is quite conservative, but he has shown signs of sanity and rejected much of the extreme Republican rhetoric of the tea-baggers (denouncing Joe Wilson's "You Lie" shout-out, criticizing Beck and other extreme broadcasters, talked honestly about global warming, etc). Inglis faces a divided field, but with a run-off requirement, is in serious danger of losing renomination.
In the Delaware Senate race, right wing talk show commentator Christine O'Donnell (who was the GOP nominee against Biden in 2008) has not backed down in the primary against relatively moderate Republican Representative Mike Castle. I'd argue that this is a sleeper race if the right wing really decides to keep moderates who could win general elections from winning nominations.
In the race for the open NH-2 House seat (Paul Hodes - D is running for Senate) the Republican establishment would prefer to see former US Rep Charlie Bass come back to win another term. But he is going to face a fiercely contested nomination, with Jennifer Horn (radio talk show host, right wing activist, and 2008 Republican nominee) perhaps best positioned to come at him from the tea-bag side.
And let's not forget some other possible Senate primaries. John McCain already faces a wing-nut opponent in Minuteman Chris Simcox, but former US Rep is said to be seriously considering jumping in -- if he does, he could give McCain a serious challenge from the hard right. In Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson could be primaried by wing Rep Paul Broun. And in Iowa, the far right is looking for an opponent for Senator Chuck Grassley -- 2008 Senate nominee Bill Salier seems interested in the race.
There is doubtless a longer watch list across the country.
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SilvestriWoman
November 9, 2009 10:02 PM
Kirk's move could really backfire. His North Shore district may be fiscally conservative but the antithesis of teabagger country. Lots of old money, highly cultured/educated. About as much like Wasilla as Westhampton...
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PhadScad
November 10, 2009 1:07 AM
How about some pre-emptive Dem ads tying the GOP to the tea party movement. something like: "Look who the GOP brought out to prevent millions of ordinary Americans from getting access to quality health care (pictures of loony tea baggers, photos of Dachau, Obama as Hitler in the background, interspersed with GOP leaders talking at the rally with mean angry faces). Is this your America?" A campaign now to tie the GOP and teabaggers together in one scary crazy bundle would be a great investment in the future.
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OldPort
November 10, 2009 1:15 AM
Hoffmanized..... As a longstanding Republican party officer at various levels in my county, I am familiar with the wars between the "good old boys" and idealogical conservatives in this state. I tend to line up with the conservatives. Our primaries require Republican affiliation to vote on the Republican ballot. Most Republicans I know are Republican because that's the best chance for conservative policies. They get pretty frosted when the only choice between two candidates is the party label. Just as soon stay home. It's hard to run on the "less government" bus when what passes for electoral intelligence is some awareness of the latest pork our boy brought home. To successfully nationalize the congressional race as per Contract with America gives conservatives a chance to win. A strong conservative platform, articulated to connect clearly with the voters, in a nationalized race, will win. As to NY 23, Hoffman got "dede'd."
She was picked by party bosses and was by no means "moderate." That race didn't offer a choice until Hoffman stepped up, and if Dede had told Republicans to support Hoffman, he probably would have won. As it was, she took her ball and went home. In any case, he outpolled her almost from the day he entered. Republicans "trick-or-treating" as Democrats Lite is a formula for a perpetual minority status.
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sommers
November 10, 2009 3:25 AM
The main problem here is.......the tea party folks are not "far right", as in "right wing Republican". Phad, (above) wants to do an AD campaign to tie the tea party people to the GOP, in an attempt to make them all look crazy. Zero issues there, just break them with phoney AD's. Just as long as we win. Like a football game.
Kleefeld also seems to be assigning the tea party folks as "right wing". They are not right wing, they are Paleo-conservatives. You know...Constitution...unless maybe the country has veered so far left that, that document no longer is part of the program.
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JNagarya
November 10, 2009 9:59 AM in reply to sommers
Teabaggers wouldn't recognize the Constitution if God introduced them to it.
Stop the stupidity: teabaggers have nothing to offer political discourse but that of being yet another far-right stupidity-front for America-hating vitriol.
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rbe1
November 10, 2009 10:01 AM in reply to sommers
I'm unable to see much of a connection between the visuals I saw at their so-called Washington rally or their behavior toward people within the capital building with whom they disagree or toward the people they seem to hate in general, on the one side, and either the words or the spirit of the Constitution or the Bill of Rights, for that matter, on the other.
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ivy22
November 10, 2009 8:37 AM
The GOP today is the new soylent green.
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AZskeptic
November 10, 2009 8:59 AM
You all need to spend a bit more time in the hinterlands...unfortunatley I live here. From what I can tell, the teabaggers around here consider brushing their teeth to be a suspiciously modern and possibly socialist activity. Just like that other communist notion that obesity is not a good thing.
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rbe1
November 10, 2009 9:16 AM
Tasks for dems: get rid of this misogynistic idiot Ben Nelson. And throw Max Baucus to the wolves for good measure. It's time for the democrats to think about a little housecleaning, some deadwood needs to be moved out.
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mgardener
November 10, 2009 10:03 AM
This is the time for Democrats to be pro active.
We are afraid to match the republicans, dirty tricks for dirty tricks.
I don't want us to stoop to their level, but we need to connect the dots an get our message out there.
I'm sick of the Democrats just reacting to whatever the republicans say.
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