Most of the commentary about last night's elections has centered around Republican pickups in the New Jersey and Virginia statehouses. But what's gone largely unnoticed is that the two congressional seats up for grabs last night both went to Democrats, and that will have immediate ramifications for health care reform.
The NY-23 seat abdicated by Republican John McHugh (who resigned to become Secretary of the Army) went to Democrat Bill Owens--the first Democrat to hold the seat in over a century. And the CA-10 seat abdicated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher (who resigned to become Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs) went to Democrat John Garamendi.
That creates some simple arithmetic. Yesterday, Democrats had 256 voting members in the House. By week's end, they'll have 258. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford to lose no more than 38 Democratic votes on a landmark health care reform bill. Next week, after Owens and Garamendi are sworn in, she can lose up to 40. For legislation this historic and far-reaching, she'll need every vote she can get--and both seem likely to support reform.
Garamendi is a liberal, and though Owens now represents a GOP-leaning district, here's what he said about the bill at a debate last week with Doug Hoffman and Dede Scozzafava: "I think moving towards this legislation is very appropriate. I think the type or the form of the public option included in this bill is reasonable. It is not one that allows people to move to the government option if they already have health insurance overage. So it's not going to control a significant segment of the population."
So while last night's election results are being cast widely as a victory for Republicans, in a very real, and immediate sense, they were a victory for Democratic leaders in the House, who will soon enjoy a bit more breathing room.

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geofu54
November 4, 2009 10:13 AM
I can't wait to see the two new governors opt out, as they promised. Yeah, let them do so, and then let's hear what people in VA and NJ think about the governors' decision to opt out.
For that to happen... let's get this damn thing to pass!
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neesy08
November 4, 2009 10:34 AM in reply to geofu54
i agree. the thing is i don't know if on a state level if their state legislatures are controlled by dems or by repubs. if they are ontrolled by Dems, then a GOP governor may have a problem.
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Nebton
November 4, 2009 10:58 AM in reply to neesy08
The VA state legislature is very much controlled by the Republicans. This was already true, and they strengthened their control yesterday. (A bright note in the statewide races was our district, where the Democrat, David Toscano, won with 78.5% of the vote. Also, not surprisingly, Charlottesville itself remained completely Democratic.)
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ched
November 4, 2009 3:10 PM in reply to neesy08
The NJ Assembly retained a comfortable Democratic majority, losing, I believe, one seat to a Republican yesterday. This was actually kind of surprising, given the mass arrest of NJ politicians on corruption charges earlier this year.
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Darrius
November 4, 2009 11:53 AM in reply to geofu54
They will never opt out of the public option, no matter what party controls their state legislatures.
Haven't you figured it out yet, this Republican/Conservative about small government and fiscal responsibility is Bull$***. They don't believe in it at all, and they never follow it when they get into office. They are the ones who create deficits and debt. They just talk that game because their constituents can't process information to separate Republicans rhetoric from their behavior.
So they will take the money or the public option and run. Then they will shout about how the Democrats are creating big government.
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geofu54
November 4, 2009 12:01 PM in reply to Darrius
Of course that's bullshit. And that's why I'm saying that. Putting the red governors on the spot (and make the public option effectively national as a result), that's the whole point.
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Mr Barky
November 4, 2009 10:28 AM
This is excellent news for John McCain.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 10:43 AM
another liberal in the house, WooWoooo
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Schmed- ley
November 4, 2009 10:48 AM in reply to Indie Pro
....and another conservaDem. Owens ain't going that far down the liberal path if he wants to keep that seat from the reddest district in blue NY.
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Indie Pro
November 4, 2009 11:16 AM in reply to Schmed- ley
I guess it depends on how he spends his time. If he is interested in progressive and liberal ideas, he should promote them, locally. Talk to people and business leaders. Outline where "conservatives" have given the country with deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy, free trade. Connect that to the bailouts, stagnant wages, and loss of jobs moved over seas. Talk about the decline in the standard of living, and the vanishing middle class. 3 decades of conservative leadership and what does that get us.
I guess it depends on his courage, and willingness for change.
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jward
November 4, 2009 10:54 AM
"Owens isn't liberal enough"--Big Tent=Win. Little Tent=Lose.
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Miles
November 4, 2009 11:32 AM in reply to jward
Well, running Kucinich as a primary challenger to Owens won't help matters. If Owens votes with the GOP every time, then this election will have meant... absolutely nothing.
He says he'll vote for HCR, though, which is huge. I don't see how the press could've let anybody hedge on that, since he'll have to vote MONDAY, but our press sucks.
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Andreams
November 4, 2009 2:46 PM in reply to jward
Amen! I keep telling myself that our big tent is good every time my blue scum votes the wrong way. At least he votes with the dems 67& of the time and that's better than a repus.
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chimpale
November 4, 2009 11:01 AM
The cuckoo wing of the GOP flexed its mighty muscle in NY23. All the bigs came out, either to flaunt their cuckoo creds (Palin) or to gain some (Pawlenty).
What do you suppose they learned from the result? I'm guessing that their post mortem is going to be a lot of "Not conservative enough!"
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Darrius
November 4, 2009 11:58 AM
That's what I'm talkin' bout. Damn this pimp game about the GOP winning the Governor's mansion in Virginia, or beating the Goldman Sach guy in New Jersey, that doesn't affect me either way. But adding a two congressmen, one of whom was taken from the GOP helps me because it make the house just a tad more Democratic.
How many votes short was the "robust" public option?
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CT Voter
November 4, 2009 11:59 AM
Thanks, Brian. I hadn't thought about these implications.
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Dorn76
November 4, 2009 1:48 PM
Another couple votes is helpful, indeed.
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Johnathan Brooks
November 7, 2009 9:35 AM
Has anyone else read the stories about Assemblyman Stan Statham being appointed lieutenant governor to replace Garamendi?
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