TPMDC

Coming Up In 2010: All About The Deficit

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House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

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Once a health care bill is finalized, the White House and Congressional Democrats will be swiftly transitioning to cutting the deficit.

Top aides on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue say 2010 will be the year of fiscal responsibility, even if President Obama has to battle with progressive Democrats to make cuts they won't like.

"Next year the focus will be jobs and fiscal responsibility," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told TPMDC in a briefing with two reporters Thursday.

Hoyer (D-MD) said one reason Democrats are having a tough time one year before the Congressional midterm elections is that voters are concerned about the nation's fiscal health, and they also want to see the unemployment rate shrink.

He said he knows there may seem to be disconnect with those two things in short term, but in long term they make sense.

"The American public are right, we have to do both," Hoyer said.

Deficit reduction over the long term will be the White House's primary focus next year, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said at the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council conference last month it will be a "key component" of the president's State of the Union address.

"It is foremost on his mind and the mind of the economic team," Emanuel said.

Office of Management and Budget spokesman Ken Baer told TPMDC it will be a top priority.

"As part of the FY2011 Budget process we are exploring a range of options to put the country back on a fiscally sustainable path," Baer said.

Meanwhile, the Republicans are pressuring Obama and Democratic leadership on spending, asking the president to veto the omnibus bill because it contains earmarks (notably from members of both parties) that he said he didn't want porking up spending measures.

The GOP also has introduced the "Control America's Purse-strings to Deliver a Better Tomorrow (CAP the DEBT) Act" and will attempt to force a vote on shutting down the Troubled Assets Relief Program and use the funds for debt reduction.

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December 11, 2009 10:14 AM   

Don't most economist agree that you don't take austerity measures during tough economic times? I thought the Gov't was supposed to be the spender of last resort. If the Gov't isn't spending, and private sector isn't spending, how the heck are we going to get our of this?

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December 11, 2009 10:40 AM    in reply to Dorn76

That's the beauty of the American people. They completely forget history. They forgot how we got here (tax cuts and massive spending), and how we need to get out of it (more massive spending (FDR). It will interesting how Conservatives sell this and if they are able to succeed. Because if they do, and they follow their "prescription" for America, it will not end well. Looks like a good time to stock up on canned goods, rice, and pasta. They don't spoil. At least I know I won't starve.

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December 11, 2009 11:34 AM    in reply to Nicnack74

Because if they do, and they follow their "prescription" for America, it will not end well.

Particularly for Obama and the Democrats. This is their watch now.

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December 11, 2009 11:53 AM    in reply to Nicnack74

They forgot how we got here (tax cuts and massive spending), and how we need to get out of it (more massive spending (FDR). It will interesting how Conservatives sell this and if they are able to succeed.

They will sell their message as the one that advocated CUTTING spending. Their belief is that tax cuts and less regulation will magically inspire large corporations and rich people to create jobs and otherwise spend money, and that this will somehow trickle down to everybody else. In their mind, the problem with GWB was that he wasn't conservative enough on fiscal policy.

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December 11, 2009 4:33 PM    in reply to Nicnack74

It's not conservatives pushing this, it's Democrats.

Yet another bad idea from McCain that we all rejected, now part of the Obama administration: Economy looks bad? Cut government spending. Unemployed beaurocrats to add to the unemployed private sector is just the boost this economy needs?

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December 11, 2009 10:40 AM    in reply to Dorn76

Exactly. The three big issues in 2010 will be jobs, jobs and jobs. You don't create jobs by cutting the deficit. And you won't win the mid-terms by adopting Hooveresque economic policy.

WTF is the matter with these people?

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December 11, 2009 4:34 PM    in reply to Moose49

Maybe they never got around to replacing Bush's economic advisors.

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December 11, 2009 12:08 PM    in reply to Dorn76

Well the New Deal helped a bunch, but the thing that really got us out of the Great Depression was our involvement in WWII.

It is hard comparing our economy today to 1932 because there are factors working on it that were not present in 1932.

One big thing is we made shit and exported that shit, now we make obscure financial instruments that we trade so we can maintain our status as super power without an all out global conflict.

But the end game is either we default on these payments in a decade or an all out global war to settle the debts.

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December 11, 2009 12:19 PM    in reply to rbeats

The quickest way to balance the budget will be to help stimulate a real recovery.

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December 11, 2009 9:05 PM    in reply to Dorn76

we don't get out of it. the one thing business doesn't like is not being certain of what will happen next. we have healthcare, cap and trade, and other issues that business, large and small, are uncertain about. once congress makes it's mind up and laws are passed on these matters, business will start to move again.some will fail, some will grow. these issues [healthcare, cap and trade etc...] are real costs to business. they will act in a positive manner once they know what the costs are. they can handle it because they will then know what the REAL costs [to them] are. then, and not before, will you see growth. my prediction; chrysler fails, GE grows with the green technology, if they can shed GE CAPITAL, a real loser. depending on what congress does pass, healthcare can be a boom or a bust. see, its all uncertain now, every one is in check.

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December 11, 2009 10:19 AM   

If the Gov't isn't spending, and private sector isn't spending, how the heck are we going to get our of this?

Character. And willpower.

This will deliver both Houses to the GOP. All the deficit-hawkishness in the world isn't enough to pull GOP votes over, and for every independent impressed by this Kabuki, a progressive Democrat stays home.

Party like it's 1937.....

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December 11, 2009 11:35 AM    in reply to Davis_X_Machina

Party like it's 1937

Prelude to the Last World War?

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December 11, 2009 12:31 PM    in reply to Davis_X_Machina

I disagree. I think that the one legitimate issue that Republicans have is that the Federal Government has a spending problem. All they have to do is get people to forget that it's in large part due to their policies and implementation, which based on history, isn't that hard.

Obama likes to think long-term and think of how they are framing this, as a focus on long-term debt. One of the first things that Obama did was to correct the budget in terms of "supplemental" spending and other accounting tricks of the Bush administration. If he hadn't done that, he would have had to stay within Bush's stated deficit range including all that spending and it would have been impossible to fund the wars without it. Going forward, he merely has to present spending proposals that are below Bush's horribly wasteful budgets and he can claim to be a deficit hawk. Health Care reform is not adding to the debt and if he is able to control military spending through better auditing and less of a footprint overseas starting in 2011, he might be able to slash total outlays by 10%. Considering that tax revenues are at a low right now, that picture should improve going into 2011 based on the full measure of the first stimulus bill being enacted. When you consider that we should be able to use some of the TARP funds for actual, direct-to-small-business aid (job creation/savings is part of the reason for TARP) and that we will likely finish some form of Financial Reform in 2010, we'll start to see more private-sector investment, which is when we'll really start to see some recovery.

Granted, my glass half full assessment requires a lot of things to go right, but based on what I've seen, the timing on a lot of this stuff is not accidental. This would be a Rovian move, to attack them where they are potentially strong, and nullify their greatest asset. If he can show that he is getting things done, while immediately being able to say that he is not increasing the year to year budget. He will also be able to claim that he is lowering the long-term debt in time for 2010. If Dems can hold serve or at least maintain their majority in the Senate going into 2011, Obama should still have plenty of wind at his back. Employment figures should be better and we'll be seeing the fruits of investments that began early this year is renewable/cleam energy technologies. I think if things pan out anything like this, American voters would be happy to have more of the same.

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December 11, 2009 10:35 AM   

Now let's get this clear. Hoyer says "Next year the focus will be jobs and fiscal responsibility," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told TPMDC in a briefing Thursday"

But TPM says "2010:All about the deficit" Now I don't know about you, but something doesn't correlate.

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December 11, 2009 10:37 AM   

No more party politics. This is ridiculous. Let the Democrats follow this path and we'll see what Congress looks like a year from now. They don't get it. I think the tea-partiers have one thing right: It's time to remove the incumbent politicians.

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December 11, 2009 10:46 AM   

I think they're talking about our long-term fiscal deficit (entitlements, defense budgets, etc), not the short-term one which is needed to counteract low demand.

You guys might be right about this influencing progressives to stay home in 2010 (I personally don't understand this, since HCR will be the biggest progressive reform in a generation, and it's likely that Energy Reform will happen too). But for 2012, this puts the President in a better position to keep moderates in his camp.

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December 11, 2009 10:50 AM    in reply to MJAN

since HCR will be the biggest progressive reform in a generation

hilarious. A morsel is a morsel, even when it is the biggest meal in weeks to someone starving

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December 11, 2009 4:44 PM    in reply to MJAN

Great, first threaten Medicare by using it to fund insurance reform, then threaten Social Security. Do dems not want a single person over 65 to vote for them in 2010? Or maybe cut foodstamps for the unemployed? I can't think of a single entitlement cut that would go over well right now.

Maybe the entitlement cuts will be like the Senate insurance reform; won't take effect until Obama is out of office in 2012.

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December 11, 2009 10:48 AM   

To be more clear: the government needs to invest in the welfare of its people. If the Dems fall into this trap of worrying about fiscal conservatism when they need to spend money to bolster the economy, they will be hurt in 2010. After all, neither our previous president nor the Congress during most of his administration was fiscally conservative.

As a progressive, there's no point voting for Democrats who act like Republicans.

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December 11, 2009 10:50 AM   

...since HCR will be the biggest progressive reform in a generation,

In any passable-through-an-actually-existing-Congress form, it's despised by progressives. Jane Hamsher and the FireDogLake crew are planning to primary anyone who votes for it -- a position also held, strangely enough, by the Club for Growth.

I think that HCR even in the attenuated form presently before Congress will pull enough independents to offset the single-payer-or-I-stay-home vote.

Deficit reduction, not so much.

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December 11, 2009 11:21 AM    in reply to Davis_X_Machina

Yet Jane and most notably Markos were all about "elect a Democrat, any Democrat" in order to crash the gates. Now that we have a full to bursting tent of Dems who seem more proto-Perot or Rockefeller Republicans, they are pitching a fit with the predictable results.

The problem is the correct demands of progressives is meeting the wall of US government. The 50 state solution is the first stage. The next stages involve convincing the public long term that progressive solutions are the best for the nation. But, it appears that the NetRootz want to have their demands met regardless of situational reality because the NetRootz did so much to help elect the current government. The base needs to think in terms of a longer game, but we are all going to lose if we insist on purity now when the water of government is still muddy with Reaganism.

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December 11, 2009 4:46 PM    in reply to Davis_X_Machina

I don't. I think mandatory purchase will make young people into Republicans.

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December 11, 2009 10:50 AM   

What about Don't Ask Don't tell, Employee Free Choice Act, Energy and Education policies and programs and return the Senate to Majority Rule! Not mention about getting Obama Team in place with some judges appointed and war crimes investigations! Hell, Congress has to reform the banks, credit card companies and audit the FED!

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December 11, 2009 11:13 AM    in reply to Progressive Party

How about getting the voting machines fixed so that our elections are not? Can we add that to your list please?

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December 11, 2009 10:58 AM   

Deficits don't matter...rethugs ran it up, they can bring it down when the get elected...hopefully next year since the dems screwed us all anyway...at least with rethugs you know they are going to fuck ya over...its always a surprise with the dems.

No money no votes!

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December 11, 2009 12:35 PM    in reply to madmatt

senseless advice

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December 11, 2009 10:58 AM   

Steny Hoyer's #1 priority in everything he says is Steny Hoyer. He has done this sort of thing before, make bold assertions about what "Democrats" will do that are little more than his own wishlists. So, big grain of salt here.

I don't doubt that the Administration will push in this direction, though. It's not "even if we have to pick fights with progressives." That is the main desire, and "deficits" the strawman excuse for the fights. Picking fights with the left makes Obama look good - at least, that's what the White House people seem to think. In the funhouse mirror world of DC it's probably true. They don't strictly care if Democrats lose the House and/or the Senate. This is the Clinton playbook. I think they'll discover, though, that we're in a different game.

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December 11, 2009 10:58 AM   

Holy shit, this is stupid.

1937 all over again.

The GOP/MSM drumbeat about "deficits" in the midst of a horrible recession, (and after years of profligate spendin under Bush), and people are going to buy this bullshit????

"I think they're talking about our long-term fiscal deficit (entitlements, defense budgets, etc), not the short-term one which is needed to counteract low demand."

Problem is that that's not what the MSM assclowns are talking about. That's too much of a distinction for the brainless idiots at CNN et al to make.

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December 11, 2009 1:59 PM    in reply to AnswerFrog

The recession is over. Haven't you heard?

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December 11, 2009 11:15 AM   

They can start by zeroing out all of the obsolete Cold-War weapons programs that continued after the Evil Empire fell.

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December 11, 2009 11:37 AM    in reply to jeffgee

Why is it that we only focus on "Cold-War weapons programs"? What about Cold-War military bases? Cold-War troop levels?

R&D and Procurement are only $219 billion of our total $850-900 billion in defense-related spending. Most of our defense budget goes towards equipping, transporting, sheltering, supplying, and retiring our million+ active military personnel. Things like submarines and fighter jets are wasteful, but aren't everything.

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December 11, 2009 11:24 AM   

Hmm. You know. I haven't read the latest, greatest HC bill, but I recall a curious phenomenon after the Feds raised the cigarette tax by $1. Several months before the tax became active, the tobacco companies raised their prices by exactly $1. Funny. It was the same amount as the tax. So, for months, the tobacco industry gained a $1 profit per pack. Not bad. That's 20% gift on top of normal profit.

Wierd. It's like the whole deal had been worked out in some back room.. It's almost exactly like what is happening right with health care. The only difference is that the insurance companies will collect the inflated premiums for several years.

By 2013, the public will have been cleaned out and the people will cry with joy to know that their premiums will rise only slightly under our ever-loving and caring govt.

Do you see how this works? Imagine vultures dividing up your flesh. Back room deals are back room deals for a reason.

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December 11, 2009 11:48 AM   

who would have thought it would be the democrats to gut the social security program

obama worse then bush ,has signed on for a one term presidency to use his skills and abilities to steal the SS trust fund for wall street.

nothing will prevent it as the truth of what obama is has been exposed...

the best shill corporate america has ever had.

this country is being split into the wealthy and everyone else.
10 years from now personal freedoms and individual rights will make north korea of today look like paradise.


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December 11, 2009 1:15 PM    in reply to JadeZ

Can you explain why the corporations you accuse the President of schilling for are so afraid a bill might actually pass? Remember the US Chamber, the GOP and the Club for Growth are right there with you on this....

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December 11, 2009 2:14 PM    in reply to JadeZ

Uh...You're dreaming, yeah? Dick Cheney isn't in the White House...Nor are the Republicans. Check your calendar.

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December 11, 2009 12:07 PM   

"Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Steny, Rahm, the President and the rest of the Blue Dog Democrats should look back to 1937 when FDR took bad advice and worried about deficits in the middle of the Depression. We need MORE government spending RIGHT NOW, because businesses are not opening their wallets to spend.

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December 11, 2009 12:09 PM   

Would someone please dig up the video of Darth Cheney on MTP saying "Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter" with that creepy smile on his face? Please? And remind the republics that they had many chances to deal with deficit reduction while they were in power but they didn't. So STFU. Now.

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December 11, 2009 12:16 PM    in reply to TheOtherWA

No. We the people will not STFU.

However, you are encouraged to keep telling us to do so. It's having a very positive effect on the population.

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December 11, 2009 12:18 PM    in reply to Silence

It funny how concerned republics are about deficits-when Democrats are in office. Wait, no it's not, it's pathetic.

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December 11, 2009 12:26 PM    in reply to TheOtherWA

This is a little different than the deficits of the past. Don't ya think? I guess not.


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December 11, 2009 1:17 PM    in reply to Silence

Yeah, Bush doubled the debt during a time of prosperity and now Obama has to spend to clean up his mess.

So no, it's not even close to the same thing.

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December 11, 2009 5:14 PM    in reply to TheOtherWA

Republican concern about deficits when Democrats are in power is much like their concern for earmarks when Democrats are in power. But Democrats are so stupid. Democrats cut earmarks to about half what they were when Republicans controlled congress, but they don't think it's worth mentioning.

Dems also don't understand how important it is to name bills properly. So we have the dry HR3600 or some such when trying to good things for ordinary people while Republicans increase polution and call it the "Clear Skies Initiative", restrict freedom with the "PATRIOT Act", and cut down old growth forrests with "Healthy Forrests". George Lakoff keeps trying to show them how framing works, but they are just too damn dumb.

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December 11, 2009 2:18 PM    in reply to Silence

We the people? You and your tiny minority? This is a democracy...The Majority rules. The Majority is "We the People." Get over the fact that you lost and stop lying to yourself. You can make all the noise you want, inflate your egos and toss each other off all you want, BUT YOU LOST. Accept it and move on.

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December 11, 2009 3:20 PM    in reply to Kuyleh

Lost? Hardly. In fact, your generous and caring govt just forwarded another check to me. Your govt pays me for doing absolutely nothing with my vacation property. That's right. Your money, coming to me....a rich guy..for doing nothing, nadda. Does it get any sweeter?

I feel sorry for the American people. I hope they rise up against this BS and take back what is rightfully theirs.

In the meantime, I happily accept the spoils that come with "losing".

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December 11, 2009 4:18 PM    in reply to Silence

Umm...Ok. Congratulations, I guess. I'm not sure what that has to do with what we were talking about, but...Hey. It gave you an opportunity to show what a hypocrite you are not once, but twice. First you don't say anything of value yet still act like you won, and then you brag about being something you claim to hate.

So something was still accomplished here.

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December 11, 2009 4:20 PM    in reply to Silence

Oh, and for the record...It's your government too, until you leave the country and renounce your citizenship. You don't look like a hardass for saying stuff like that, it just shows how immature you are. So stop trying, or leave and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

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December 11, 2009 5:00 PM    in reply to Kuyleh

I thought it was your govt. I lost, remember?

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December 11, 2009 9:57 PM    in reply to Silence

Are you nitpicking because you have nothing to say? Or could you really not follow the train of the conversation?

Last time I checked, the Republicans weren't a separate government in this country. They were just trying to be. Your side lost.

Following me now?

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December 11, 2009 12:25 PM   

I had a strong feeling this was going to be the thread where so-called progressives joined hands with our resident Republitrolls to proclaim that the sky is falling and our once noble President is the one breaking it apart and dropping it down on all of our heads. It appears that my suspicions were correct. So I'm not going to bother pointing out that this is POLITICS, and a big part of politics is about THE MESSAGE. I won't mention that the public, the voting, working, struggling, PUBLIC is actually legitimately concerned about 10+ percent unemployment, and that heading into an election year, the governing party message SHOULD be JOBS, JOBS, JOBS... If any of you think the GOP isn't going to make the economy and the unemployment rate in particular Millstone #1, you're dreaming. This strategy has two advantages: First, it provides a platform to emphasize accomplishments and positive developments that occured during Obama's first year. Second, it emphasizes that Democrats are actually in touch with people's concerns and actively engaged in addressing them (rather than just being "the Party of NO").

Somebody has to make an effort to ensure that the economy recovers. That's
governance. It helps if people aligned with that plan also make an effort to communicate with voters that their concerns are being met and things are moving in the right direction. That's politics. If you don't like the fact that the message will be all about jobs and fiscal responsibility, rather than bitching about it, tell us: What do you think the message should be? And what do you think the agenda that the message is promoting should be? What would you do and how would you convey it to the voters?

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December 11, 2009 1:12 PM    in reply to ondioline

Exactly - I wonder how long it will be before some of those "so-called Progressives" posting around here start demanding to see Obama's birth certificate?

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December 11, 2009 1:19 PM    in reply to ondioline

It's been happening for the past couple days, but not one of the disgruntled seems to be able to explain why they are on the side of the GOP and the US Chamber on this one.

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December 11, 2009 5:37 PM    in reply to ondioline

I want Dems to stay in power, but they have such a tin ear when it comes to selling the public on what they are doing. It's a tough sell to say we're both deficit hawks and bailing out the economy Bush left for us. It can be done, but Democrats don't have even the concept of the message control it takes. The Public option was supposed to save over $100 billion; but I suspect most voters still think it was wasteful government soending. Why is that? Stupid Democrats who will not hone their message to make the dollars saved or jobs created the first thing mentioned in every contact with the public.

Or maybe it is because Obama is a closet Republican, so rather than push how much money the public option will save, he's trying to avoid losing an insignificant number of insurance company jobs.

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December 11, 2009 1:03 PM   

Okay, enough with all the cynicism bluster that's been going on around here. It is a simple fact of political life that Democrats/liberals/progressives actually try to govern, while Republicans/conservatives try to blow up government in the name of the people. I don't agree with everything that President Obama has said and done, but I think he's better than anyone else right now. I put it to all of you who have lambasted the man here and elsewhere on the Web: he has only been president for approximately 11 MONTHS, not a few years. Remember that before either the conservatives or liberals attack him as a "failed president." As for Congress, there are 535 of them-it makes herding cats seem like a dream for Hoyer. Believe it or not, a good many members do know what's going on in their districts and in the country, and are trying to find effective ways to help. (I go to college in a relatively hard-hit part of Wisconsin.) Still others seem to think that they echo the wishes of the people by blocking anything that comes their way. Politics is a dirty, messy, compromise-prone activity, but the current leadership has the ability to try and pass some sound recovery policies. Sure, jobs may be at the core of Hoyer's comment, but as long as that's backed up by adequate federal muscle in the short term, it will pay off in the long term.

Finally, I have to say it here-PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE!! The New Deal didn't help overnight! We Americans seem to have fallen into a dangerous trap of believing that either a policy/idea has to work within four months or it's a bad idea. This is a patently dangerous line of thinking. Macroeconomics takes more than four months to change. This does not mean that I'm insensitive to the problems of the unemployed in this country, because I want them back to work just as much as anyone. I'm saying that now is the time when we, as a country, need to say goodbye to the drunken, heady days of the 1980s-to-mid 2000s boom, realize that we are truly a post-industrial society, and begin acting as such. Until that day, I fear that we will enter a dangerous decline of decadence and rot in our thinking.

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December 11, 2009 1:11 PM    in reply to Old-Style Progressive

The new deal never worked. A war and complete worldwide devastation is what pulled us out of the depression.

We were the last country standing. Always a good place to be.

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gdb

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December 11, 2009 1:38 PM    in reply to Silence

Silence, you are full of it. The New Deal worked just like Keynes said it would. took US unemployment from 24% to 12% from 1933-1936. Then FDR decided to balance the budget and terminate most programs--- and just like Keynes predicted, unemployment went back up.

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December 11, 2009 1:58 PM    in reply to gdb

Yeah. Pray tell. What wealth will this "new deal" create?

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December 11, 2009 5:48 PM    in reply to Silence

None, because the New Deal held the course for 3 years, Obama is switching to deficit hawk in less than one. When people are depending on the social safety net, he's going to try to save money by putting holes in it. But at least the DLC and the blue dogs will be happy, and that's all that really matters to Obama.

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December 12, 2009 6:04 PM    in reply to gdb

you are gilding the lily a bit. you left out the 79% top tax rate.which of course stunted growth. without that tax rate the depression would have ended much sooner. the wealthy families of america, just like now, caused the depression. this includes joe kennedy, du pont, carnegie, most of the kennedy money was made illegally, selling whiskey during prohibition. of course, he paid no taxes on this. bad karma

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December 12, 2009 2:11 AM   

We're fucked.

John

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June 6, 2010 9:35 AM   

who would have thought it would be the democrats to gut the social security program

obama worse then bush ,has signed on for a one term presidency to use his skills and abilities to steal the SS trust fund for wall street.

nothing will prevent it as the truth of what obama is has been exposed...

the best shill corporate america has ever had.

this country is being split into the wealthy and everyone else.
10 years from now personal freedoms and individual rights will make north korea of today look like paradise.

m65 kamagra

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