
The public option is dead. Its successors are dead. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) told Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) as much yesterday afternoon. And yet still, there's lingering uncertainty about whether a). the votes are there to pass a health care bill, or, relatedly, b). the bill can pass by Christmas. Here's what would have to happen in the next 9 days to get that done.
Align the liberals and centrists
Reid's first order of business is to make sure that there are 60 votes committed to pulling this bill past a filibuster (actually, several filibusters, but we'll get to that). On the left flank of his party are three particularly disappointed Democrats: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Roland Burris (D-IL), and Russ Feingold (D-WI).
Sanders has described the direction this legislation has taken as "disturbing." Feingold told The Hill last night, "I certainly think a stronger bill would be better in every respect, better policy...but there are obviously some good things in the bill." Burris has said he will can't support a bill that does not achieve "the goals of a public option," leaving him substantial wiggle room.
Even assuming all three decide to vote with the Democrats on procedural matters, on the other side of the party, pro-life Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) announced, "I'm not on the bill," before a meeting at the White House yesterday. He's still holding out to see what abortion language Reid ultimately decides to adopt in his "manager's amendment" to replace the abortion language in the current bill. Reid is working on that language with Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), and we should know soon what Nelson will do.
If Reid loses a single one of these members, he'll need Snowe. And she's not ready yet.
Push through the final stretch
There's a saying in politics that goes something like: When you don't have the votes, talk. When you do have the votes, vote. Assuming Reid gets the votes, he'll vote. And vote. And vote. And vote. Reid will have to hold a veritable vote marathon to wrap up work on this bill--a process that could take nearly a week in and of itself. That's why he wants to start Friday.
Because Democrats don't expect Republicans to roll over and let the bill pass quickly, even after Reid rounds up his votes, he will have to file for cloture on three items--a manager's amendment, the substitute amendment, and the underlying bill--simultaneously. For a primer on what each of these items is, see here. Republicans will likely filibuster all of them. It will take a full day for each of those cloture motions to "ripen" during which not much will happen.
After that, Reid will hold a cloture vote on the manager's amendment. If 60 members vote yes, the Senate waits up to 30 hours before holding an up or down vote on the manager's amendment. This process will repeat itself two more times--one for the substitute, and one for the underlying bill. If the Republicans don't agree to cede back some time, that could potentially eat up 90 hours. And only then can Reid finally hold an up or down vote on "health care reform."
In other words, Democrats were serious. They're willing to work right up to Christmas to pass this bill.
Walter Mitty
December 16, 2009 9:54 AM
You know Reid will not work right up to Christmas. That was a sternly worded letter he likes writing because it makes him feel tough.
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Walter Mitty
December 16, 2009 9:55 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
Lieberscum will say "Harry I want to be home for Christmas, so either we vote after Christmas and I'll vote with the Dems (while crossing his fingers behind his back) or you keep us here to Christmas and I'll vote to filibuster it forever.
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dswx
December 16, 2009 9:58 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
Of course Lieberman probably would do that, even though he is a conservative Jew and does not even celebrate Christmas! After all, it is all about his ego.
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wyt
December 16, 2009 11:35 AM in reply to dswx
Of course he doesn't celebrate the birth of the false prophet. Why would the real prophet do that?
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Steaming Pile
December 16, 2009 12:17 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
That's sort of what Olympia Snowe wants - to push the vote into 2010, which is an election year, and give the teabaggers one more shot at pro-HCR senators, who can't do as much about people being bussed in from out of town as a member of the House of Representatives. Call it the Christmas from Hell.
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PorkBelly
December 16, 2009 9:58 AM
Ooh, great.
The dedication of the Senate to work up until Christmas to pass a hunk of crap.
Puke.
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Matt Jones
December 16, 2009 10:09 AM
Well, they've got to get it done before Christmas. The only real question is, how do you wrap 30 million Americans and billions in subsides to give them to the insurers? Congress is pretty good at packaging the shit sandwich the rest of us get, but the insurer's gift is trickier...
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Indie Pro
December 16, 2009 10:23 AM in reply to Matt Jones
maybe they could ask everyone to email the pin numbers to their bank accounts straight to the insurance companies, and that way a few more conservative votes can be won.
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wbgonne
December 16, 2009 1:38 PM in reply to Indie Pro
I think a trillion dollar check would be easier. Lower administrative costs, too. Win-win.
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ru4862
December 16, 2009 10:12 AM
Yeah, passing reform won't be easy. Give Lieberrman some time he'll find something wrong about the bill, again. Democratic leadership from the President to Harry Reid on down has been utter FAILURE.
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Indie Pro
December 16, 2009 10:22 AM
I take it Reid is running out of things to give up to win more conservative votes.
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Indie Pro
December 16, 2009 11:37 AM in reply to Indie Pro
rut roh:
Two of the country's largest labor groups, the SEIU and the AFL-CIO, are each holding emergency executive meetings today to discuss whether they should support the latest round of health care compromises made by Senate Democrats.
Let's hope they do the right thing, and fight for their memebers, and the people. Lord knows the Senate doesn't care about them!
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Indie Pro
December 16, 2009 11:40 AM in reply to Indie Pro
oh, and this statement from them, spot on:
"If the White House is going to cave to a Senator who spent the entire election campaigning with McCain and calling Obama a traitor how are we supposed to have any leverage over anyone?
"If Lieberman -- who has done so many horrible things directly to Obama -- can get away with this on Obama's signature issue it makes it infinitely harder for us to pressure senators, on issues in the future, because there is no fear of retribution or coercion from the White House. They only pressure progressives, not anyone in the middle."
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jward
December 16, 2009 10:33 AM
Just in from Nate Silver: why progressives are batshit crazy to oppose the health care bill:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/why-progressives-are-batshit-crazy-to.html
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Steve LaBonne
December 16, 2009 11:00 AM in reply to jward
Nate Silver knows about two things: baseball and statistics. On anything else, you may as well cite the opinion of the first person you encounter on the street. And one of the first few comments to that post does a nice job of eviscerating him:
"Sorry, Nate, but your entire rebuttal proceeds from a false premise - namely, the premise that health insurance, purchased from a private, for-profit insurance company, is the same thing as health care.
It's not, for the simple reason that the insurance companies will happily take people's premium money for as long as they are healthy, and then deny their claims as soon as they get sick. The Senate bill (as well as the House bill, for that matter) does absolutely nothing to prevent this.
Also, as if that wasn't enough, rescission will continue. Read the bill - it says no rescission except in the case of fraud. So the insurance company will just claim fraud and you will have to go to court to fight that, which will take years to resolve. And all the while you'll be going without health care.
So no, it's not crazy to oppose this bill. It's crazy to support it."
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jsdc007
December 16, 2009 11:37 AM in reply to Steve LaBonne
Pray tell, why does Snowe need more time? Did she need more time when she cast her vote in typical knee-jerk "GOP moderate" manner for the unfunded $1.2 trillion 2003 Medicare Modernization Act? Hell no. At the end of the day, this woman is just another prima donna who will capitulate to the basest motives of her party.
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hychka
December 16, 2009 11:15 AM
Who cares??!! We are done here....the base has left the building.
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Virginia
December 16, 2009 11:19 AM
So are you arguing that insurance companies should be forced to pay fraudulent claims?
Yes there will still be battles over what constitutes fraud, but I think the legislation will still cut recisions down dramatically, and the increased medicaid provisions will help those who may become caught in the vice.
Perfect health reform was never in the cards. I see too many progressives now on the verge of letting the perfect drive out the very good.
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Steve LaBonne
December 16, 2009 11:26 AM in reply to Virginia
And a pony!
Rescission of policies should be allowed ONLY for failure to pay premiums. Period, full stop. Every time the insurance companies rescind a policy now, they claim fraud (did you think they were just doing it without having a cover story?), so this bill would change absolutely nothing. It'll still be your lawyer against their army of lawyers, and good luck with that.
God, the apologists for this piece of crap are naive.
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rbeats
December 16, 2009 12:19 PM in reply to Steve LaBonne
I agree I read that comment and thought this must be written by Karen Ignagni, or a very naive person.
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Indie Pro
December 16, 2009 11:27 AM in reply to Virginia
I think the legislation will still cut recisions down dramatically,
The senate bill does nothing to change the way the law is not enforced. And the law exists now, without a mandate.
and the increased medicaid provisions will help those who may become caught in the vice.
this does not require a mandate either.
The good does not have to include an extreme giveaway to the insurance industry
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matt in so dak
December 16, 2009 1:04 PM in reply to Indie Pro
and the increased medicaid provisions will help those who may become caught in the vice
My father is a 62 year old man, laid off from his job. Heart condition prevents him from working. No health insurance. He cannot qualify for Medicaid because he makes $1100 per month from Social Security. That's all of his income and he still doesn't qualify. Applied, reject. But hey, he did get $16 per month in food stamps. He can't even get health insurance for a week for $1100.
So, his plan? ER medicine. Also known as the public option.
Anyone but Obama 2012
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runfastandwin
December 16, 2009 2:51 PM in reply to matt in so dak
So you are saying you would rather have Joe Theplumber president than Obama? How about Opie the employee of the month at Pautucket Patriot Brewery? I know, let's get Rush Limbaugh, he'd be much better than Obama.
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Schmed
December 16, 2009 2:04 PM in reply to Virginia
Yes, Virgina, there is a Santa Claus....
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ottis
December 16, 2009 11:30 AM
My sources tell me that Humana has told McConnell that they will accept Lieberman's HCR. So I believe Ried's problem may be about over.
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Steve LaBonne
December 16, 2009 11:38 AM in reply to ottis
Well, of course they will. They got rid of everything they don't like and what remains is a big fat Christmas present for them.
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Tonymil
December 16, 2009 11:37 AM
It's time to dump this bill, bypass filibuster and go back to the public option via budget reconciliation:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/12/16/815160/-THE-BIG-LIE-About-Healthcare-Reform
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Powkat
December 16, 2009 12:00 PM in reply to Tonymil
Heck, go back to single payer, if you're doing reconciliation.
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richard f
December 16, 2009 2:00 PM in reply to Powkat
There isn't ten votes in the Senate for single payer (which will be proved when they vote on the Sanders amendment). And there are not 51 votes for a health care reconciliation bill. Harry Byrd, the father of the reconciliation rules, has said that health care does not qualify for reconciliation; even Russ Feingold opposes passing health care through reconciliation.
The many comments here condeming anyone who supports this bill as a sell-out (Feingold, Franken, etc) convinces me that that the left is simply incapable of governing and would rather see the Becks, Limbaughs, etc in power than actually accomplish something worthwhile. (I remember the 1966 California gubernatorial election when the left wore buttons saying "I'd rather see Ronald Reagan elected that vote for Pat Brown" - that worked out well (sarcasm intended)
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willia451
December 16, 2009 11:41 AM
Move On had a rally yesterday in front of the White House to "demand" a PO. Only 50 or so folks showed up.
Nobody in the base cares anymore. We busted our butts to get these people elected, and the very people that voted for them are going to be the ones to be taxed and fined. With no more choice than we had before. No more competition than we had before. No cost controls. No public plan to choose. No drug re-importation to reduce drug costs. I could go on and on and on.
Joe Lieberman just distributed this vid of himself to the nation and specifically to Progressives:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SK6gbhuEXQ
King Kong, indeed. And who can say otherwise at this point?
As far as I'm concerned, if it dies, it dies.
I'm certainly not going out of my way for it anymore.
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CranialRectalLoopback
December 16, 2009 11:50 AM
Reid stands in Reid's path.
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madmatt
December 16, 2009 11:55 AM
Awww insurance industry up my ass for xmas...thanks you worthless hacks...might as well of voted for rethugs, at least I would of known I was getting screwed.
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rbeats
December 16, 2009 12:12 PM
A mandate with penalty of a fine from the IRS, no competition, with a loophole on per-years payments for health care services but no life time limit?
Kill this bill.
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synchronicity
December 16, 2009 12:16 PM
Remove the unprecedented federal mandate to purchase health insurance from the health insurance/care reform bill until such time as we can actually get a public choice.
Without a public choice of some kind the mandate amounts to a huge bonus to insurers. This is too much like what we have experienced with the banks and Wall Street...financially rewarding abuse.
Get the reforms and improvements you can get without the mandate.
We should not have to 'give' anything to stop abuse. Our government has a right and responsibility to protect us from abuse and corrupt practices, we shouldn't have to pay extortion money to get abuses to stop.
The mandate is only acceptable if we are given a real public choice. Since it appears that we can't achieve that today, save the implementation of a mandate for another day when we can.
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ohyeathatsright
December 16, 2009 12:24 PM
This is my first time saying this: Kill the bill.
Feels good.
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Scott in PacNW
December 16, 2009 12:33 PM
Yes, I'm sure the GOP will sign on. Their concerns of budget busting will miraculously disappear. This may be the 'bi-partsan' bill Obama's been searchinig for.
I feel all warm and fuzzy.
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VictorLH
December 16, 2009 1:22 PM
One can only hope Burris and Feingold stand tough on this. Sanders probably will.
I saw Klobucher and Shaheen last night cheerleading this piece of shit bill.
Anyone know if Franken has sold out to?
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xargaw
December 16, 2009 1:25 PM
I read Josh's piece this morning about not being here to walk people back from the edge when disappointments are profound and I understand that, but disappointments come in different forms. The GOP tells people up front through the policies they proffer that they are going to be shafted. It's just that their base to too dumb to realize that GOP policies shaft them. They buy the pitch that is so beautifully and deceptively packaged and they don't connect the dots. But the Democrats actually compaign on doing the right thing for all the right, fair and humane reasons and then they turn around and betray their voters. That is a harder disappointment to accept. When you campaign on public competition in the healthcare market, negotiating the price of drugs and re-importation and then turn around and kill all those things you basically promised, you loose all credibility with your voters. When you give insurers and PHARMA all they want at the expense of the voters, you loose the voters. When the voters see self interest trump public interest and people suffer and die as a result, they see evil and they are rightfully walking away from these Democrats. We have our donations, our support and our vote. That has value. Let them see how far corporate cash carries them on election day when their voters don't show up. We can primary them or not vote for them, either way they must be flushed out. Most of us won't walk away from politics, but if we don't punish those that sought our votes and then betrayed our trust, we will never see the progress we seek for all.
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VictorLH
December 16, 2009 1:50 PM in reply to xargaw
Primary them! Don't walk away from the only party that does have representatives who do do the right thing.
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wbgonne
December 16, 2009 1:49 PM
I continue to say that the problem is fundamentally that Obama and the Democrats don't have the courage of their convictions and, because of that, they are still playing on the Republicans' field. Either the Dems believe that the government has a role in providing health care or they don't. Say it. Over and over. Explain it. Over and over. And guess who must be the one doing those things? The guy with the bully pulpit. Instead, he sat on his ass like a spectator while Joe Lieberman dismantled health care reform and, quite possibly, the Democratic Party as well. No doubt, however, we'll see that presidential muscle now -- threatening labor, ostracizing Howard Dean, insisting on party discipline only now that the legislation has been crippled. Frankly, it is sickening.
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Darrius
December 16, 2009 1:49 PM
I say again,.......KILLING THIS BILL WOULD BE THE DUMBEST THING DEMOCRATS COULD POSSIBLY DO!!!
Killing this bill is going to destroy the Democrats in Congress and the White House. Moreover IT WILL MAKE THIS BILL POLITICAL POISON FOR EVERY FUTURE PRESIDENT. If the left kills this bill and thus destroys Obama for trying and failing, then no President will ever try HCR again. Furthermore they will pay less attention to the left anyway because they get hysterical and betray you if you fail. You can't punish people for trying to help you and expect them to keep helping you.
This "kill the bill" idea is, poor Republican, I-have-no-job-but-need-a-tax-cut-stupid, vote against my own best interest stupid.
The fact is that the left does not have the political power to overcome the 60-vote cloture requirement to pass a bill in the Senate. Our anger should be directed at the Senate rules that require 60 votes to pass a bill.
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wbgonne
December 16, 2009 2:06 PM in reply to Darrius
A bit hysterical, no?
If the current bill doesn't pass the health care system will continue to creak and groan until it grinds to a halt, probably in 5 or 10 years. Since Obama lacks the political will, I fear that may be the only way to actually reform the health care system. Band-aids won't help. No Health Insurance Company Left Behind doesn't help. Do nothing and let the system collapse. Then maybe people will do something real to fix it.
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Schmed
December 16, 2009 2:13 PM in reply to Darrius
Killing this bill is going to destroy the Democrats in Congress and the White House.
Good. With the imminent collapse of the GOP that everyone has been forcasting this year and the Democrats committing political suicide with this HCIR bill, the field will be wide open for parties that actually represent the people and will get the people's work done.
Laissez rouler les bons temps.
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hychka
December 16, 2009 1:51 PM
I'm thinking Toronto.
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Jackster
December 16, 2009 2:17 PM
Despite the in fighting and obstructionist "king of the hill" being played by the DINO's and Lieb's, The full brunt must fall on the backs of the republicans. They have LIED at levels rarely seen. No one especially the MSM have even attempted to bring a fare, honest discussion. They would rather report on the T-baggers screaming unsubstantiated, (Beck inspired) rants into what ever camera that shows up. So what have we got now? A horrible health bill that does nothing but fatten up the insurance companies that caused the whole mess. The problem is that with a miss-informed public, the most humane act we could commit in modern times has been busted by the Republicans and lobbyists. My fear is that if this bill fails it won't be a taint on the Republicans regardless of the facts. More will die, more will go broke and even more won't give a flying fuck!
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ilovebacon
December 16, 2009 3:56 PM
Howard Dean is a blowhard. No wonder Obama didn't give him a post. Dean's a nutjob.
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Paul Burke - Author Journey Home
December 17, 2009 12:06 PM
Health Care is Crippling the Country - Where are the Republicans?
Okay now that the Republicans won't play and big pharma and big insurance have Joe Lieberman all wrapped up who is going to break the monopoly and price fixing that is crushing the middle class and destroying our economy and Country?
Since the middle class and small business (99% of the Country) isn't getting any help from the Republicans - not one - we need to strip the mandates out that require everyone to have insurance and that provide an economic windfall to the 1% of the Country Republicans and Joe Lieberman answer to.
If we aren't going to get competition for big pharma and we can't buy cheaper drugs from overseas (so much for free trade) and we can't buy into medicare (no public option) how are we to create competition and incentives for the private insurers to lower their cost?
Small businesses just got informed by blue cross their rates are going up 37% this year. There is no incentive for a monopoly to lower costs. The collusion in pricing needs to be investigated and the anti-trust exemption needs to be terminated - with prejudice. The insurance companies have a gun to our head and the republicans are loading the barrel with glee.
The fact remains that In 2007, before the current economic downturn, an American family filed for bankruptcy in the aftermath of illness every 90 seconds; three-quarters of them were insured. Over 60% of all bankruptcies in the United States in 2007 were driven by medical incidents. The share of bankruptcies attributable to medical problems rose by 50% between 2001 and 2007. Most victims are middle class, well educated and had health insurance - (The American Journal of Medicine).
If they don't fix how much it costs the middle class and keep squeezing us to pay their CEO's 20 million dollars a year they are going to break the country. The money needs to stay in the hands of the middle class so they can support the broader economy not just a few CEO's. The insurance companies can't be allowed to skim 40% off the top for salaries and profit. Their manufactured monopoly has to be broken up by the Government. It's called governing. It's the SEC's job to do this and Congresses job to legislate the rule of law when monopolies are crushing the overall economy. It's bad for our National security on top of everything else. For all their preaching of free markets the Republicans are elected to eliminate competition and consolidate power for their big business and fiscal allies in the corporate world.
How stupid are our representatives? Spare me the republican talking points they have offered nothing and are only playing politics to win power in their little world of politicking. Meanwhile the Country is crumbling. 1% of the population is doing well. That eventually will lead to civil war. And there are plenty of guns out there.
The republicans hope health care reform and this President fail because they govern for 1% of the country and 1% alone. How can there not be one republican who doesn't understand the cost of health care is weakening our Country? The republicans can't do what's right for the country because they are scared the corrupt who they take their money from can lead the ignorant against them in any election and win because they control the media.
As it has been for a long time the Republican party worrying about their own seat in Congress have sold out to the highest bidder and have proudly become a wholly owned subsidiary of Corporate America. They do "NOT" represent the middle class. Direct your anger at them.
Paul Burke
Author-Journey Home
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