
Senate Majority Leader is already facing an uphill climb as he attempts force health care reform through an irascible Senate in Washington. But a new poll shows that fight could be nothing compared to what he faces back home in Nevada. In a new Mason-Dixon poll of Nevada voters out today, Reid has just a 38% approval rating -- and is losing in a hypothetical matchup with both of the leading contenders for the Republican nomination.
It's not news that Reid is facing a tough reelection battle. But the new poll today shows he's made very little progress in regaining the trust of his constituents after weeks of trying.
The August Mason-Dixon poll, out in August, showed him with a 37% approval rating. In response to numbers like that, Reid launched what the Las Vegas Reivew-Journal called a "promotional bombardment" featuring TV ads and other outreach. That effort appears to have not done the job.
JohnW1141
December 4, 2009 10:07 AM
Reid brought this on himself, he should have grown a spine long ago.
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izzatxeaux
December 4, 2009 10:16 AM
reassuring to see Nevadans differentiate 'trying' from 'doing'
friends in Vegas say jobs are the priority, but real healthcare reform would go some distance in moving these numbers
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ilovebacon
December 4, 2009 10:17 AM
True. However, poll numbers 11 months out--especially for Congress--are notoriously unreliable. Most incumbents poll low early on, then close the gap. If he passes HCR, he will likely win re-election; if not, he will lose.
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hewhohasnoname
December 4, 2009 10:31 AM in reply to ilovebacon
I think you make an excellent point. There's no substantive campaigning going on yet. When there is, it's more likely that these polls will converge.
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Jeff From Vegas
December 4, 2009 10:18 AM
If people want to have the attitude that we can dispense of Harry so easily, that is their right. Who will you replace him with? There is a small radio station about 400 miles north that plays a bit of progressive radio. Otherwise you would think we do not exist.
Harry's biggest game-breaker is the public option. If he cannot bring it safely to a positive conclusion, I see no one -- other than paid political operatives -- working for his re-election. If he marshals the vote to bring health insurance to the Martians out in Area 51. He'll have something to run on. His six shooter is empty right now. He's got nothing to run on.
Mitch McConnell is making him look like an ass almost daily. If Harry wins the Super Bowl (A viable public option), he will retain his seat. Otherwise he is toast.
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EastWest
December 4, 2009 10:26 AM in reply to Jeff From Vegas
You've gotta play to win. Harry slithered off the field months ago.
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ilovebacon
December 4, 2009 10:20 AM
If he passes ANYTHING, he will get a big boost. He will spin it.
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izzatxeaux
December 4, 2009 10:34 AM in reply to ilovebacon
yes. initially.
but his most influential constituency is Labor (Culinary Workers)and they are not going to be satisfied with any of the Frankenstein Options currently being advocated by the holdouts.
it remains to be seen if he can get away with an "I included the PO but the Blue Dogs ate my homework" excuse. maybe, combined with a real EFCA passing,(mid spring at the earliest) but what are the chances of that with this crowd ?
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Icon
December 4, 2009 10:22 AM
Reid was going to be one of the biggest political casualties of health care reform no matter what happened. Nate Silver was able to show fairly recently that being in the spotlight on HCR has caused the approval ratings of several Senators to tank.
The person's actual opinion on HCR doesn't matter that much; what matters is whether they're in the spotlight about it and playing dealmaker. Reid, as the majority leader, has to be the #1 dealmaker because it's his job. It's unfortunate, but there's not much he can do except be on the defensive in NV.
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socraticgadfly
December 4, 2009 1:04 PM in reply to Icon
the deal is, then, getting HCR passed quickly enough to get it out of the way politically.
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jonibgud
December 4, 2009 10:25 AM
Just to echo the comments above: My guess is Reid is doomed if he moves to the right in an effort to boost his standing among voters. He doesn't need a few center-rightists to secure victory in 2010, he needs HIS BASE to get excited and turn out. Only by getting MOVING LEFT does he achieve this. But will he do it, or will he drink Karl Rove's Kool-Aid and move right? I'm not saying anything new -- but how come Dems in trouble always reflexively move right?
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EastWest
December 4, 2009 10:29 AM in reply to jonibgud
"...how come Dems in trouble always reflexively move right?"
Cowardice.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 4, 2009 12:12 PM in reply to jonibgud
Seems to me he's moved left in the last several months.
Now Blanche Lincoln, on the other hand . . .
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runfastandwin
December 4, 2009 12:22 PM in reply to jonibgud
Exactly, it does not matter how far to the right he goes, those voters will not support him anyway. Anyway as long as he muscles through HCR which he seems to be doing, and continually reminds everyone that Cheney and Bush are republicans, he should be ok. In fact I am going to go out on a limb and say he will be re-elected.
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dick c
December 4, 2009 10:32 AM
Wouldn't it be more in the Democratic Party's interest to have a majority leader from a solidly blue state rather than one like Nevada? I'm always thinking he's caving on issues before they get to a vote because of his voters at home.
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Dr Lemming
December 4, 2009 10:38 AM in reply to dick c
That's the key question here. The Democrats made a crucial mistake in choosing for their leader someone from a swing state who has always been vulnerable. Now Reid's fortunes will be spun as reflecting general support for the Democrats.
Alas, it may be too late to switch leaders (even if the Dems were so inclined). We may need to go down with the ship.
The Democrats have made so many tactical mistakes in the Senate. You can tell that they have been out of power for too long.
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arias
December 6, 2009 5:27 AM in reply to Dr Lemming
FYI, When Reid first assumed his senate leadership position after the fall of Daschle he was considered quite safe, and it was described that Nevadans "loved" him.
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FlownOver
December 4, 2009 10:39 AM
What does it profit a man to retain his seat and lose his own soul?
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UglyMoe
December 4, 2009 10:47 AM
This is great news, since democrats need to stop making excuses for the cook when he puts a warm turd on the table.
The healthcare bill now being cooked up is not progress on the road to universal coverage. It is a victory of bribery over Justice.
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benjoya
December 4, 2009 10:54 AM
more likely that give 'em hello harry is defeated for his seat than the dems replace him in the leadership, no matter his lamesness. so while a lost seat is bad, if it gives us majority leader durbin it wouldn't be as much of a loss. (that said, reid is an improvement on daschle, barely.)
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conniptionfit
December 4, 2009 11:03 AM
So, two questions here.Is there a Dem primary in NV? (if so, who?)
And who would we like to see as the new Majority Leader? I could see Dodd and Shumer making a play for the leadership. Maybe even DiFi I think all are too weaselly to make good progressive leaders. Who else? Feingold? I'd love to see Sanders, but He's probably not technically eligible because he's a registered Independent. Frankin is too new. Heaven help us if they give it to one of the Blue Bitches. What do you all think?
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Jeff From Vegas
December 4, 2009 11:12 AM in reply to conniptionfit
Here's the timeline:
Important 2010 Candidate Dates
January 4, 2010 First Day for Candidate Filing for Judicial Candidates (Excluding Municipal Judge)
January 15, 2010 Annual Campaign and Expense Report Due
Statement of Financial Disclosure Due (Elected and Appointed Officials)
January 15, 2010 Last Day for Candidate Filing for Judicial Candidates (Excluding Municipal Judge)
March 1, 2010 First day for candidate filing for non-judicial candidates
March 12, 2010 Last day for candidate filing for non-judicial candidates
March 22, 2010 Candidate Statement of Financial Disclosure Due
March 23, 2010 Last Day to Withdraw Candidacy (non-judicial candidates)
May 8, 2010 Last Day to Register to Vote (by Mail) for Primary Election
May 18, 2010 Last Day to Register to Vote (in Person) for Primary Election
May 22, 2010 Early Voting for Primary Election Begins
June 1, 2010 Campaign and Expense Report 1 Due
Mail Ballot Request Deadline for Primary Election (must be received)
June 4, 2010 Last Day of Early Voting for Primary Election
June 8, 2010 Primary Election
Harry may need to pull an LBJ and step aside. There are no dems other than Harry Reid's son (Rory) with any kind of name recognition. Harry's best chance is Jon Ensign being forced to resign at a time that forces us to elect 2 Senators at once.
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conniptionfit
December 4, 2009 11:19 AM in reply to Jeff From Vegas
Thank you for your very thorough reply... I wouldn't bet too much on Ensign finding the humility (humiliation) to resign. Surely there must be more than one well-known and well-liked Democrat in NV? So, Jeff from Vegas, what are YOU doing about the search? poke. poke.
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Jeff From Vegas
December 4, 2009 2:59 PM in reply to conniptionfit
I'm lookin for a leader like Neil Young was a few years ago. While doing that I am puttin the fire to everyones feet I can.
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izzatxeaux
December 4, 2009 12:11 PM in reply to Jeff From Vegas
thanks - very handy to have that. there is some talk among the inside baseball types that a primary opponent could come from Culinary Worker ranks, but I've heard nothing out of NV itself - but seeing those dates still puts it within the realm of possibility
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Walter Mitty
December 4, 2009 11:13 AM in reply to conniptionfit
Dodd is probably going to lose as well. Schumer or Durbin more than likely. Probably Schumer because Durbin is from Illinois.
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benjoya
December 4, 2009 11:17 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
you may be right, but durbin is currently whip, which makes him a contender off the bat. IMO, he'd be better than schumer. so would dodd, but he might lose his seat as well.
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runfastandwin
December 4, 2009 1:22 PM in reply to conniptionfit
I think Schumer's the guy that could do the most for liberals. But again I don't think Reid is going anywhere.
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Walter Mitty
December 4, 2009 11:09 AM
Reid might get more support if he promised to step down as leader. I think a lot of folks think the party will be stronger with him out of leadership and if that means he has to lose his seat to a Republican then so be it.
Reid is falling into the Deeds trap. He takes the progressives for granted and then tries to peel off moderate Republicans. However to appeal to those moderate Republicans he alienates all of his progressive support and gains few, if any Republican support.
But lets not kid ourselves here. The GOP will sabotage it's challenger if it actually looks like they could pull off the win because Reid is the gift that keeps on giving to the GOP.
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Norm
December 4, 2009 11:13 AM
Folks, he's not up re-election in 09 but in 10. If he's poling this way 9 months from now, okay but let's see how he's poling in the fall of 10 after he wins the Democratic Primary.
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conniptionfit
December 4, 2009 11:21 AM in reply to Norm
But a girl can dream, can't she?
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benjoya
December 4, 2009 11:18 AM
duh, which you just pointed out. sorry for the doddering.
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sbv
December 4, 2009 11:26 AM
reid, like deeds in virginia, will be held accountable not for doing too much, but rather for doing too little. if he can get a true health care reform bill with a true public option passed, along with a another jobs bill passed, he will be the winner regardless of how much flak the gop will send his way!
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decisivemoment
December 4, 2009 11:43 AM
So he's alienating his base, which isn't going to turn up to vote. The Republicans will simply win through voting in the same numbers as they always do, because half the Democrats are MIA. And then the ConservaDems will announce that this is conclusive proof that the Democrats aren't conservative enough. Stage 23 of American politics turning into Groundhog Day.
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neesy08
December 4, 2009 12:04 PM
it's way too early to be looking at these polls. i think reid's approval rating will rise after the hcr bill is passed. also, i think the jobless numbers will continue to fall, which will also help.
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jward
December 4, 2009 12:22 PM
The Mason-Dixon poll skews right and this poll is from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which is Reid's arch-enemy. Do a little googling on Reid and the Review-Journal--in fact Politico has a recent article. Believe nothing the Review-Journal says about Reid (the fairer paper is the L. V. Sun).
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Jeff From Vegas
December 4, 2009 3:06 PM in reply to jward
The Las Vegas Review-Journal is to the right of the KKK. It does however stick a very moderate paper (The Las Vegas Sun) inside it every day, so we get an 8 page (usually)little newspaper that is more balanced.
Inside the Las Vegas Sun, Harry still needs a bath once in a while, but he gets respect once in a while.
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Pierce R. Butler
December 5, 2009 12:43 PM
That Mason-Dixon poll sounds like the best news the Democratic Party has had since November.
My impression is that the Senate Dems chose Harry R to run their show because they wanted a weak leader, somebody who would give them a set of long leashes to run in their own chosen directions. This was back in Karl Rove's glory days, after all, when DC "wisdom" had it that they would remain in the minority forever and ever - so what did it matter?
Then, when Repub screwups gave them the majority, the Dems were stuck with a loser, because (a) an internal shake-up would upset all their other power-holders, and (b) they're wimps, without any goals for the nation beyond their own re-elections. So they end up with the sort of horse trader who could ride into town with a prime herd of thoroughbreds, and at sunset be seen walking out of town barefoot.
Lyndon Johnson must be spinning at a supersonic velocity.
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sommers
December 5, 2009 8:52 PM
Please Utube, Harry Reid / taxes are voluntary, an agonizing 4 minutes of illness.
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