
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was apparently caught unawares by Sen. Joe Lieberman's latest assault on health care reform, and that's left Democratic leadership scrambling to figure out how to cobble together a bill that can get 60 votes on the Senate floor, without creating a tremendous head ache down the line when the House and Senate meet to tie their bills together.
Assuming that Lieberman can't be persuaded to back down from his threat to filibuster the bill unless all public option compromises are stripped from it, here are the options before the Democrats:
1). Scotch the Medicare buy-in and instead court Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who would support a triggered public option. That would still lose Lieberman's vote, but preserve the barest hope for a public option in the future, and create a path to 60. Snowe, though, has said she's unlikely to support any bill unless Democrats slow things down, and don't hold votes until January.
2). Strip the bill of the public option with an opt out, but don't replace it with any public alternatives: no Medicare buy-in, no triggers. This would be a huge near-term defeat for progressives, and one they'd be very reluctant to take lying down. In fact, it's unlikely that they'd swallow it unless they were promised that the public option (or something like it) would be added down the line via the 51-vote budget reconciliation process. Since the bill's main reforms don't take effect for years, the public option (or a Medicare buy-in) could be adopted separately, though that would touch off yet another heated political fight in the months ahead.
3). Call Lieberman's bluff. It would be a daring move, but Reid could dare Lieberman to cast the deciding vote against reform. There'd obviously have to be a back-up plan, though, and in this case, the only clear option would be to revitalize the budget reconciliation process, and pass a different bill that would only need 51 votes. That would be a hard slog--leadership has all but foreclosed on the idea. But it's just about the only point of leverage leadership has over Lieberman--that his threats won't be effective--and unless he can be convinced by other means, Democrats may not have much choice.
The fact that, for the time being, staffers across the party seem to be returning to a consistent theme--that Lieberman once supported the policy he's now threatening to filibuster--suggests they hope to change his mind by shaming him publicly. But if that effort fails, the menu of options before the Democrats isn't particularly appetizing.
The Decider
December 14, 2009 12:22 PM
If anyone wants to pay a little consulting fee to me I can get you some really interesting info. on enhanced interrogatory techniques.
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Indie Pro
December 14, 2009 12:26 PM
Harry Reid was apparently caught unawares by Sen. Joe Lieberman's...
wow. just. wow.
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CT Voter
December 14, 2009 12:40 PM in reply to Indie Pro
Precisely.
If Reid truly was caught unawares, it sounds as if Joe has double-crossed the Dem leadership. How else could you explain it?
Unless, of course, Reid wasn't all that unaware that this was going to happen. In which case, it's the same old business as usual crap.
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hunter
December 14, 2009 1:43 PM in reply to CT Voter
Well, I think it's pretty clear that Joe has double-crossed leadership. The surprising part to me is that Reid was apparently the last political watcher in America to notice.
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kash79
December 14, 2009 12:28 PM
Reid can turn gold into dust, this was just a health care bill. The moment the spotlight was on the Senate, the lights were off for the HC bill.
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Walter Mitty
December 14, 2009 12:30 PM
Lieberman is a republican, well actually he's out for himself. He's pissed that he was primaried from the left and is out for revenge. He knows he will not be re-elected in 2012 so he's out to get his pound of progressive flesh now.
Why was Lieberman primaried if he was talking medicare buy-in and public option? Because of his war support?
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CT Voter
December 14, 2009 12:38 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Lamont was outspoken in his opposition to the Iraq war.
That was THE issue during the primary.
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rj
December 16, 2009 1:24 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
Dead thread, but in case you're looking: Lieberman wasn't the only Dem who supported the war (though the most hardline), but he was pretty much the only Dem to make a career of turning up at every available tv camera (especially those in Fox studios) to consistently criticize his party and sanctimoniously bemoan their unwillingness to be bipartisan. (Yes, he opposed filibusters then -- not only a charter member of the nuclear-option-facilitating gang of 14, but voting for cloture on bills he'd then vote against, arguing that the majority deserved an up-or-down vote. Yes, that's right.) He constantly chastised "my party" for its supposedly unreasonable resistance to working with the so-reasonable GOP, routinely characterized mainstream Dem positions as "far left" and, by playing on the media's bipartisanship fetish, singlehandedly did incalculable damage to Dems' ability to stand against the Bush administration in the media and in Congress.
This latest act is of a piece with his history -- a sanctimonious, preening, ego-driven little man who loves to pose as (to quote Atrios) "the last honest man" and position himself for maximum attention and influence, irrespective of the actual policy involved, as the latest 180 on the Medicare buy-in proves. (Oh, and eaten up with the need for vengeance against the party that, before it rejected him in 2006, had the temerity not to embrace him as their presidential candidate in 2004.) Principles? They're best represented by what he chose to call his independent "party" -- Connecticut for Lieberman. Screw the constituents; it's all about Joe.
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George C
December 14, 2009 12:48 PM
I think splitting the bill makes sense: 1) an insurance reform bill, which the R's say they don't oppose and which should pass handily; and 2) a bill to address the twin problems of expanding coverage and affordability. The latter should be subject to reconciliation and that's the way they should go.
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Steaming Pile
December 14, 2009 1:12 PM in reply to George C
Unless, of course, they actually had to vote on it, in which case, they're unanimous in their opposition.
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cube3u
December 14, 2009 12:56 PM
The Senate doesn't grasp that having a 60-person majority and not being able to pass a bill will not be understood by voters of all party persuasions. Dems will have to jettison the fillibuster rule from 60 to 55; the rule can even be temporary for this bill. Shrug. Risky, but it's better than the bloodbath that 2010 will be for the Dems if healthcare isn't passed.
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Skybolt
December 14, 2009 12:58 PM
They should have been working towards reconciliation the entire time. Any bill they pass with no Republican support will be a better bill and will make the Republicans less relevant.
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JohnMcCSF
December 14, 2009 1:03 PM
First move - break his teeth
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Steaming Pile
December 14, 2009 1:09 PM
Snowe, though, has said she's unlikely to support any bill unless Democrats slow things down, and don't hold votes until January, thus giving the Teabagger thugs another several news cycles over the holidays.
/you're welcome.
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JohnW1141
December 14, 2009 1:19 PM
Lieberman is a publicity hound, and that's his Achille's heel.
Remember during the Bush years when Bush would come out on the veranda of the White House for some two minute announcement? There was Lieberman, appearing like Forrest Gump, just behind Bush. I always wondered how he pulled this off. Did he have some kind of deal with Bush for these kind of photo ops?
But it wasn't only with Bush, I remember any number of times there he was just behind the speaker at a press conference.
The key to Lieberman is in ignoring him, keep him from the spotlight. You can't keep him off TV, but how many times can he appear on Meet the Press?
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Ann Arbor
December 14, 2009 1:58 PM in reply to JohnW1141
52 times a year (53 when there's an extra Sunday).
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arias
December 14, 2009 1:26 PM
So Joe's willing to be a backbencher for the next 3 years? Or does he think Dems won't have the balls to strip him of his chairs?
I remember Reid holding a vote of confidence for Joe to keep his chairs at the start of this session after he had actively campaigned against Obama. There was reason NOT to strip him at the time in hopes he would play nice, which he has until now.
But I wonder if Reid realizes that 'threatening' to strip him of his chairs must be done BEFORE the vote for vital legislation comes up, and must be done early and often in the most menacing of means in order for there to be a chance that Joe might actually think it might happen. Stripping him after the HCR vote really does absolutely nothing.
There's got to be a way to blackball his wife from her HCR lobbying positions where she's bringing home big time bread.
Hm. Channeling LBJ. How would he get it done? I have a feeling that if Lyndon was handling the behind the scenes on this, the ends would justify the means.
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Schmed
December 14, 2009 1:49 PM in reply to arias
Hm. Channeling LBJ. How would he get it done?
At this point, your analogy breaks down. LBJ ≠ Obama.
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Darrius
December 14, 2009 1:41 PM
Nuclear Option
The filibuster should be completely done away with. A rule that allows the minority to overcome the wishes of he majority is undemocratic anyway.
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jsdc007
December 14, 2009 1:42 PM
All this sudden talk about running up budget deficits, bankrupting Medicare, etc., by the Republicans (and Joe Lieberman) is nothing but political grandstanding and part of a strategy to undercut the Obama presidency. All the Republicans including Snowe, Collins, Kyl, Hatch voted for the unfunded $1.2 trillion 2003 Prescription Drug Expansion bill that created Medicare Part D without batting an eyelid. Hell, the Bush White House even prevented the CBO from submitting an accurate cost estimate prior to passage of the bill. Now this bill comes along, its a funded mandate to the tune of $800+ billion, its a mix of private-public elements, and they're suddenly acting like fiscal hawks? The whole thing is a glaring exercise in hypocrisy, and yet the press (WaPo, NYT) are doing nothing to expose these newly self-annointed faux fiscal hawks.
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Ann Arbor
December 14, 2009 1:59 PM
Can we get Joe alone in a room with Rahm?
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The Decider
December 14, 2009 2:25 PM
Joe always wanted to be the decider, even if it was on little things.
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govewood
December 14, 2009 3:53 PM
Joe is-in the final analysis-with the Republicans on HCR. The absurdist, schizoid behavior is really a comical attempt to appear loyal to the Democratic Caucus in the Senate, but, at the end of the day, he wants the President to suffer or appear to suffer a defeat on Health Care. The Congressional Democrats are just "collateral" damage.
After all, a weakened President Obama is a President Obama whose heft vis-a-vis Netanyahu, and forcing Israeli policy away from blatant West Bank annexation, and a unilateral attack on Iranian nuclear sites is "reform" more to his liking. For Joe and his "constituents" outside the state of Connecticut-shall we say-not having a President McCain has "existential" consequences that trump a lot of things, certainly health care reform. Thus, there will "always" be something wrong with the bill.
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jah627
December 14, 2009 4:53 PM
If they fail to break this vicious cycle -- progressive announcement followed by hapless retreat -- the Democrats are going to be in serious trouble in 2010. These are politicians -- surely they are aware of the quicksand on which they are standing. The Dems need a clear-cut victory, and if they fail to achieve one, they will lose the Congress and later, the Presidency.
It is not enough to pass a generic health care bill. Congress must demonstrate that it can impact ordinary Americans, and if the bill that they eventually pass cannot be seen to have done that by early next year, we'll be back to Rethuglican rule by January 2011.
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