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Is It Game Over If The Senate Passes Health Care Reform? No.

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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

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The Senate is still on track--barely--to pass a health care bill by Christmas. To pull that off, Democrats will need to speed through the next week without hitting any unexpected bumps in the road. And Republicans love to throw bumps into the road.

But this health care fight has made it abundantly clear: there's never any rest for the weary. Even if Harry Reid does everything right, he'll likely wake up the following Monday at the helm of a new project, and a new, short timeline. He'll have to reach agreement with the House of Representatives on a final health care bill that doesn't lose him a single vote.

Two key questions will determine whether that happens: 1). Will the final bill that emerges have moved too far to the left for the likes of conservative Democrats in the Senate? And 2). Will the lag time between passage of the Senate bill, and a vote on that final bill shake loose any Democrats, nervous about the ramifications of voting for a controversial, and increasingly unpopular package of reforms.

Though they can't be amended, conference reports can be filibustered. And the conservative Democrats in the Senate are so entrenched in their positions that Reid can't take their continued support for granted. Some of them are even demanding that certain provisions--most notably the public option--don't come back to life when Reid and other Senate health care principals sit down with their counterparts in the House.

The House hasn't seen the legislation the Senate will be voting on. Reid hasn't shared the expected final language with them.

"There are a whole lot of questions," said Rep. Chris van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the DCCC. "They are still trying to figure it out on the Senate side.

"We then will be in dialogue with the Senate," he added. "In the House we believe our bill is a strong bill. This is a long way from over we don't have a final product yet."

But legislators, and sources in both the House and Senate, say discussions have been ongoing behind the scenes for some time, at least on the issues that are more set in stone.

"People have been talking about that for a long time," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).

So negotiators will have a head start, and the hope is to be ready to go with the bill by the time Congress returns from its belated recess.

But time will be of the essence. Democrats are already hoping the momentum behind this bill outweighs the nervousness vulnerable members feel about voting for the legislation, and a three week break could change the stakes.

On the Senate side, aides and members have had little time to focus on anything other than passing the bill. But on both sides of the Hill, aides are confident that if the Senate passes its bill next week, health care reform will be locked in. We'll be on scene for every major development.

Comments (101) | Join the Conversation!

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December 17, 2009 11:29 AM   

Other than a bunch of unhappy health insurance companies, what's the downside of of killing this bill?

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December 17, 2009 11:39 AM    in reply to DanielFBoone

Plenty of downsides.

It will be pretty politically destructive for the Democrats if their signature issue goes down in flames. Voters rarely reward failure, and both the Senate Dems and the WH passed up the opportunity to frame this as a prime example of Republican obstructionism.

On a policy level the status quo will continue. (I'm not necessarily saying the Senate bill will improve the status quo, for me the jury is still out on that.)

We will have to wait another 10-20 years for HCR to come up in Congress again.

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December 17, 2009 11:51 AM    in reply to agio

both the Senate Dems and the WH passed up the opportunity to frame this as a prime example of Republican obstructionism.

Opportunity missed there. Otherwise, there might have been outrage over yesterday's stunt.

I don't know if this bill will change the status quo. I do know, however, that if it fails, nothing else will get done, and Democrats will be out of power in January 2011, and less than nothing will get done at that point.

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December 17, 2009 12:13 PM    in reply to CT Voter

20 years if far too soon for anyone to attempt health care again.

If this bill goes down it is going to take the Democrats with it, and that will be the second time it has happened. That will make it toxic for future Presidents and even more toxic for future Congresses.

You "kill the bill" people need to quit your emotional pouting and realize that passing this bill is necessary first step to future change. Rome wasn't built in a day, and Medicare wasn't built in one bill.

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December 17, 2009 12:16 PM    in reply to Darrius

It will be the eighth time it failed, we tried for this in 1935, 1944, 1949, 1964, 1965, 1973, 1994. second time in the row it tore apart a Democratic majority.

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December 17, 2009 12:20 PM    in reply to Darrius

PLATITUDE ALERT!

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am4

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December 17, 2009 12:34 PM    in reply to Darrius

Referring to the opponents as "you people" and saying they're "emotionally pouting" is a great way to win them over.

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December 17, 2009 1:14 PM    in reply to am4

I am aware that the language is tough, but the fact is they need tough love. Sugar-coating the truth isn't what they or we need now. They want the same end that I do. I need them thinking with their brain, not their heart. They need to be thinking with their brain, not with their heart. What they are advocating will suicide all the work that they, themselves have done in the past two (2) elections. If they want to achieve their own goal they need this bill to pass, if only so that Dems can be the ones to change it before it takes effect. They need to control their emotions enough to let that happen.

They are not taking a logical position. It is not reasonable to hurt yourself further because you didn't get all of what you want. So I tell them the truth. Any Democrat making a "kill this bill" call is making it out of emotional hurt and frustration.

Why are they saying this, because they don't want to compromise, they want their way, but they are not yet strong enough to get it. So they want to take their ball and go home instead of improving their game so that they win next time.

What would happen if they get their way, if they killed this bill??? Next year they'll mad because no one is doing anything about health care, when their own lack of toughness is what stop the progress on that issue.

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December 17, 2009 1:05 PM    in reply to Darrius

Wrong. Check out Kos' "20 Answers" in response. We are on an unsustainable course; the President got that much right. But it doesn't have to be Liebercare. There are better ways to get this done sooner. People who tell you otherwise are being fatalistic.

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December 17, 2009 12:14 PM    in reply to CT Voter

The Democrats are out of power NOW. If the GOP regain the reigns and we get another term of stagnating stasis, perhaps enough Americans will become uncomfortable enough to see the evil wrought by a one-and-a-half party system. Perhaps then we'll see a real populist movement that solidifies into a meaningful third party (or more)and the two current corporate lapdog whore parties will stop taking democracy for granted. Perhaps we'll get back to what political activism meant before corporations were granted the power to subvert the system to their ends.

Or perhaps nothing will change: more people will suffer, but not enough to create a political groundswell. Corporations will continue to buy politicians (including presidents) and manipulate the political structure to maintain economic and social control. Mediocrity will become a virtue and people will be thankful for their meaningless jobs as long as they can feed their kids McDonalds and watch football and American Idol on their jumbotrons.

I guess it all depends on how many real Americans are numb to the pain of their neighbors and don't feel the temperature of the water in the pot rising....

[Civilization] is only three meals removed from savagery.
- Niven / Pournelle

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December 17, 2009 12:29 PM    in reply to Schmed

There are a lot of perhaps in that scenario.

If the bill is killed, Democrats are toast, and healthcare will remain radioactive for decades. We can hope some third party develops, but I think that's highly unlikely. (Well, a viable third party is unlikely).

As vile as Democrats appear to be, they're still far better than what passes for Republicans these days. And while I'd prefer to vote for something, rather than voting for the lesser of two evils, that's what we have right now.

And what about the 30 million people who will now have access to some sort of insurance? Should we just say "Wait for awhile. Something better will come." I don't think so.

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December 17, 2009 2:48 PM    in reply to CT Voter

And while I'd prefer to vote for something, rather than voting for the lesser of two evils, that's what we have right now.

What we have right now is the evil of two lessers. Neither of these parties stands for anything other than getting re-elected to keep the corporate gravy train rolling.

And what about the 30 million people who will now have access to some sort of insurance? Should we just say "Wait for awhile. Something better will come." I don't think so.

Isn't that what everyone is saying NOW? It's either a) kill the bill and start over and get it right; or b) push through this shit sandwich of a bill and then fix it sometime down the road when the Dems have a better [super]majority. Either way, "wait awhile...." is the far distant land on which we hope to arrive.

At least under scenario A, the insurance robber barons don't get quite the bonanza they're being promised with the current senate giveaway and the uninsureds may actually benefit some weeks or months after the passage of true health care reform (NOT aka health care insurance reform) instead of in 2014 or 2015 or whatever the effective date really is.

Get it right, right now. Is that too much to ask (yes, that's a rhetorical question to which I already know the answer)?

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December 17, 2009 12:39 PM    in reply to Schmed

"The Democrats are out of power NOW. If the GOP regain the reigns and we get another term of stagnating stasis, perhaps enough Americans will become uncomfortable enough to see the evil wrought by a one-and-a-half party system. "

Totally true and well said, Schmedley.

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rj

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December 19, 2009 4:05 AM    in reply to justicia

Actually, Schmedley sounds a lot like Nader voters I knew in 2000; that worked out well...Remember that most Democrats would vote for a better bill; what we need is, yes, more and better Democrats. The bare supermajority we have today (which includes the quisling prick Lieberman) pales next to what FDR and LBJ had to work with, and even they had to start with more limited versions of Social Security and Medicare. But those limited foundations have been built up over the years. It's called progress. And Krugman and other progressive wonks think that can happen with this legislation too -- unless we let a teabagger-fortified GOP come back to power because we've destroyed ourselves. In which case the reform we can look forward to will be Medicare "privatization." No thanks; please direct your completely understandable anger and frustration productively, for all our sakes.

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December 17, 2009 12:47 PM    in reply to Schmed

"The Democrats are out of power NOW. If the GOP regain the reigns and we get another term of stagnating stasis, perhaps enough Americans will become uncomfortable enough to see the evil wrought by a one-and-a-half party system. "

Totally true and well said, Schmedley.

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December 17, 2009 11:59 AM    in reply to agio

So let me get this straight regarding your "plenty of downsides" analysis.

-If it doesn't pass the "status quo" will continue.
On the other hand...
-If it does pass, the status quo will "not necessarily" continue.

Wow. Brilliant.

(Relax...I'm not going to touch the ridiculous "10-20 year wait" and "Dems will lose seats" Blue Dog talking points.")

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December 17, 2009 12:19 PM    in reply to Johnny2Bad

Well thanks for shooting the messenger in your righteous fury.

I didn't advocate passing the bill, at this point. I even explicitly stated that I don't know if, on a policy level, it will improve healthcare for Americans. Because I don't pretend to be psychic, or an expert on health macroeconomics.

I simply pointed out the rather obvious fact that, if it doesn't pass there will be a price to pay at the ballot box. That conclusion is based, above all, on history.

If it does pass in it's current form, there will also be downsides, and I have no doubt some Democrats will be so pissed they will take their ball and go home.

Like all complicated things, it is not a question of one way being obviously right and the other being obviously wrong. There are costs and benefits to either side, and it's up to grownups to figure out what the best way forward is.

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December 17, 2009 1:23 PM    in reply to agio

If it does pass, there will also be a price to pay at the ballot box. Most people will remember that you gutted Medicare and made some spend a huge amount on insurance. The 4 or 5 year delay will keep them guessing what horrors are to come rather than deal with the changes now. Republicans will treat us to stories of people forced to sell their homes because they can't afford to spend 17% of their income on insurance. Only some in the 15% uninsured who can finally buy insurance will know what good you did. A grateful fraction of 15% will not out vote the angry faction.

It's not that there is no good in the crumbs that remain of health care reform, its that there is not enough there to sell it politically. People will say "You spent a trillion dollars and made us all buy insurance -- for this?".

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December 17, 2009 2:07 PM    in reply to condew

I don't disagree with that, really. The original question was "What are the downsides of not passing this bill." That was the question I was trying to answer, not "Should we pass this bill?" To which my answer is, in all honesty, I don't know.

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December 17, 2009 12:08 PM    in reply to agio

Another ridiculous assertion that passing a bill that is already highly unpopular will help the Democrats. I almost want this terrible bill to pass because it will be political suicide for the Democratic Party.

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December 17, 2009 12:12 PM    in reply to masanf

For the reading-impaired I never said passing will definitely help. Just that not passing it will definitely hurt.

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December 17, 2009 12:13 PM    in reply to masanf

oh, your fellow GOP wingnuts definitely want this bill to pass. They would love nothing more than mandated purchase of for-profit insurance with no real regs or cost controls.

they'll just dishonestly claim that they're against it in order to win elections.

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December 17, 2009 12:33 PM    in reply to masanf

Well I am saying it.

Darrius says, "Passing this bill will definitely help Democrats."

There are only two options,
1. Pass this bill
2. Don't pass this bill.

There are no other possibilities.

1. Pass this bill -> Political opinion = The Democrats can negotiate pass all the many different positions of the factions in their BIG TENT party, tackle very big issues and govern. = Helps Democrats.

2. Don't pass the bill -> Political opinion = Democrats can not govern it is a waste of time to elect them.

Don't pass the bill = The left are sore losers who will betray and punish Democratic lawmakers if they attempt healthcare, therefore Democratic lawmakers should avoid health care reform like the plague.
Don't pass the bill = Hurts Democrats
Don't pass the bill = Hurts people who want to reform health care.

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December 17, 2009 1:00 PM    in reply to Darrius

Here is what you're missing: non-Presidential election years tend to be more base-focused, as the politically disinterested, who tend to be more independents, aren't motivated to come out. And if the base is unhappy with the bill, then passing it could actually hurt the Dems in 2010 more than not passing it, as the base may be dissaffected and won't turn out.

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December 17, 2009 1:06 PM    in reply to Darrius

I think you're putting the "betrayal" tag on the wrong people. If your wife cheats on you and you leave, you're the betrayed and not the betrayer.

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December 17, 2009 4:35 PM    in reply to condew

Its more like,...

If an intruder puts a gun to your wife's head and says, "give me your wallet or I'll shoot," and you say, "shoot her," then you betrayed her.

or maybe

Your wife works hard all day to cook you dinner, and you get home and say, "this food sucks, I'm getting take out," then you betrayed her. Plus you wasted her time, effort, and money.

Nobody betrayed us here. Nobody, except for Joe Lieberman that is.

Not every Democrat in the Senate is on the left. But every single Democratic senator has his own personal veto. Moderate dems put their own political agendas and political futures on the line to get a health care bill. Yet, because the Democratic caucus has 4 or 5 Conservative Democrats each with their own veto, 'kill this bill' people want to betray all the good dems who put their careers on the line.

That is betrayal.

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December 17, 2009 12:08 PM    in reply to agio

so one group of WH-enabled corporate whores is replaced with another in the majority?
You're seriously telling me that I'm supposed to be concerned about that? Oh right, we have a "D" on our jerseys, so we're the "good guys".

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December 17, 2009 12:30 PM    in reply to human

Seems to me that you've come to the conclusion that our government is irreparably broken. Which is your right and may, indeed, be true. But it leads me to ask, why are you even bothering to follow this process at all?

If I were convinced that American politics was nothing but a shell game to determine which "WH enabled corporate whores" sit in the capitol, I think I would just stop following politics altogether because it is a pointless exercise in frustration.

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December 17, 2009 1:28 PM    in reply to agio

Why I'm personally bothering to follow this current debate (because not only do I not have insurance...I don't believe in insurance, don't buy into the traditional medical model, am not at all "hooked" into the ol' "disease" concept, etc. Translate: Have little to no interest in the specifics of the issue)...however...
We are in the midst of a huge paradigm shift. Bigger than anything we've seen come along in a long while. And the way we "govern" ourselves...well, this kind of debacle (you use the term "broken") sure is getting folks to wonder about whether or not it's time for a change.
That excites me. Gives me surges of energy. Because I see people "waking up" to other possibilities. Other ways of seeing, not only the world, but ourselves. And doing things differently...waaaaay differently...as a result.
For the record: I choose not to define anything via the fear meme. (Part of the old paradigm.) So am not frightened if this particular bill passes or doesn't pass. And am not spending a whit of time trying to figure out who'll end up on top, who'll be demoted..again, very old concepts of "power." But no question, change is in the air. And it's not coming from Obama. It's coming...from us. (Yippee!)
I thank you for your ideas, and for the thoughtfulness expressed in your posts. (Oh, and love your photo...brings a smile to my face, giggle to my heart.)

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December 17, 2009 2:19 PM    in reply to Barbyrah

After reading your first paragraph it was impossible for me to take what you wrote seriously. "Don't believe in insurance?" Don't "buy into" medicine? Don't believe in "disease"? What kind of gibberish is this?

Rejecting medical science is no different than rejecting climate science, physical cosmology, or evolutionary biology. If you reject basic scientific facts, and basic economic realities, then I don't care what you think about health care or revolution or anything else.

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December 17, 2009 1:12 PM    in reply to human

Actually, most of the "D's" are good guys, but a few are bastards and a few are wimps.

All of the "R's" are bad guys, betraying our system by voteing "no" purely as a political gimmick. I won'rt even except those like Snow who like to pretend they are listening. The Republicans would all rather see the United States fail than see Democrats succeed.

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December 17, 2009 11:45 AM    in reply to DanielFBoone

I don't know what the substantive down side is.

The political down side is that the scum of the earth will use an Obama failure with a 60-ish vote majority on his pet project to show that he cannot accomplish anything and that Glenn Beck should be President. They will use that to try to take back the House in 2010, for example. And the Dems will not get another shot like this at substantive reform for many years.

Again is this really substantive reform? Some say yes, but I honestly don't know.

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December 17, 2009 12:01 PM    in reply to Overreach THIS!

That is a substantive downside. Politics is power.

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December 17, 2009 12:39 PM    in reply to Darrius

That is EXACTLY the attitude that has landed Democrats in this predicament. Just win. Doesn't matter what you do or say. Just win because it's all about the power (i.e., money). For professional politicans that may be true. Unfortunately, the constituents -- us -- see things very differently. People want results from the people who get the power.

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December 17, 2009 1:13 PM    in reply to wbgonne

Ditto. Americans don't care who's in power. They want results. Single payer would've done the trick. A strong public option might have helped. What we have now? No way. Neither Reid's existing bill nor the House bill are any good. The 'Secret' bill that the Senate's working on now? I don't see how it's going to get better. "We'll work it all out in conference"? Yeah, suuuuuuuure.

They pass this monument to corporate entitlement, war appropriations...then they can go after 'deficit reduction'. That would mean like...the subsidies that are in this bill to make it affordable!

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December 17, 2009 1:42 PM    in reply to Tanjaoui

I also sense people...want integrity. And heart. (Little question, people's hearts have gone wanting a very long time in this current system. Yet I encounter near cravings for authentic "connection" from others, including those within the political arena.)
Translate: I don't think this is just about "results." Or even about Obama or Reid or Lieberman or anybody else.
This is about us.
Regards to everyone.

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December 17, 2009 2:26 PM    in reply to wbgonne

Okay. It's probably comforting to the opposition, of course, that no one seems to expect anything constructive from them. Just send Sarah out or W., to tsk-tsk about they don't approve of whatever and that's more than enough for so many.

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December 17, 2009 12:06 PM    in reply to DanielFBoone

Every time we've failed to pass a bill, the issue has has been radioactive for a minimum of a decade and the legislation on the next go around is weaker than it was last time. Five times that's happened now.

The idea/fantasy/reality denial mechanism that we can ditch this one and come back next year, or next Congress or in 2014 with single payer or something stronger flies in the face of this history.

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December 17, 2009 12:15 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

History is being made as we speak. Things change. It appears there is not yet the political will to reform health care. So we will wait until there is. (It would help if our president mustered some political will of his own. Just to set an example.) Say the bill goes down, do you think the health care system will improve? No, it will move closer to collapse. And it won't take long. Within 5 years, I'd say. Then maybe we can really fix it. That is better than some half-assed measure that will further entrench the insurance companies and postpone what must be done. If this bill DOES pass it WILL be a generation before meaningful reform comes b/c we will be waiting for it to kick in for 10 years. Then we'll start tweaking it. Before you know, 20 years have gone by and we're stuck with the same dreadful system only now people will be mandated to buy insurance. Why bother?

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December 17, 2009 1:03 PM    in reply to wbgonne

The bill will insure people who don't have insurance now. Without this bill, many of those people will die and many more will be in medical bankruptcy before things get bad enough (if they ever do) to create the leverage for "real" reform some of you were demanding.

That's the simple hard truth of where we are now.

Those, like you, who prefer the "let the system collapse" option because it's the only way to get reform that's reformy enough, and sufficiently punitive of the evil insurance companies, seem to respond to these harsh facts by a) denying that the policies will be worth anything to anyone who gets them and/or b) accuse those who point out these facts of bringing in appeals to emotion. And, possibly, c) attack the motives and/or intelligence of the person who points out the facts.

If you've got anything other than those three, I'd be interested to hear them.

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December 17, 2009 1:11 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Hey, is that a pony you're riding?

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December 17, 2009 1:21 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

I'll take (a) as a reasonable objection to this legislation. It's rotten insurance that, as it stands, has no out of pocket caps and will drive anyone with serious medical needs into bankruptcy. I'd just as soon bypass paying premiums to private, for profit industry and go straight on Medicaid after going broke paying health care providers (rather than going broke paying health care middlemen - insurers - 30 cents on the dollar forever).

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December 17, 2009 1:34 PM    in reply to Tanjaoui

As best I can tell, this criticism started at FDL. When I read the clauses they link to in support of that position, and I can't for the life of me follow their reasoning.

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December 17, 2009 1:31 PM    in reply to wbgonne

Most of this bill won't kick in for 5 years. So I guess we'll see the collapse of which you speak eather way.

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December 17, 2009 12:18 PM    in reply to DanielFBoone

Unhappy? Are you kidding me?

If this bill fails, those insurance company stocks will absolutely skyrocket.

Just because they're relieved it isn't worse (i.e. it doesn't include a public option) doesn't mean they prefer it over the status quo.

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December 17, 2009 12:19 PM    in reply to DanielFBoone

more important than any other reason NOT to oppose this bill when it finds it's final form,is to be forced to wage this $150,000,000 battle of the media blitzes once again just to get a healthcare reform package on the table in the first place.

Notice how those people in the opinion polls who have been moved to distraction by the industrial-strength anti-reform ads all seem to parrot the very words of the ads? Theyare afraid reform will make their costs rise?

THOSE COSTS ARE GOING UP, AND THOSE PREMIUMS, REGARDLESS OF THE BILL WE GET PASSED! EVEN IF THE BILL DOESN'T PASS, THOSE PREMIUMS ARE GOING UP!

They aren't stupid, just greedy, they know the end of their HMO gravy train is nearing, and regardless of the outcome of this bill, they WILL raise rates and deny services in a desperate, clawing attempt to rake in as much easy money as they can before our lawmakers are forced to turn on their former favorite campaign benefactors due to public pressure (those ungrateful bastards.)

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mcc

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December 17, 2009 12:32 PM    in reply to DanielFBoone

What the "progressives" around here were saying a week ago was that the downside of killing the bill is that 44,000 people die each year from insurance where we could have done something. Lieberman was being directly accused of murder because he was trying to kill the bill.

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December 17, 2009 11:37 AM   

And the conservative Democrats in the Senate are so entrenched in their positions that Reid can't take their continued support for granted. Some of them are even demanding that certain provisions--most notably the public option--don't come back to life when Reid and other Senate health care principals sit down with their counterparts in the House.

The public option is what the debate has ALWAYS been about.If the White House didn't realize this it is stupid.

Democrats are already hoping the momentum behind this bill outweighs the nervousness vulnerable members feel about voting for the legislation

I think there's a typo in there. When you wrote "momentum" didn't you really mean "Joe-mentum"? Because that's all this bill has behind it right about now.

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December 17, 2009 11:53 AM    in reply to wbgonne

But even the House bill's public option is pretty pathetic.

I think the bill can be made to work. Ted Kennedy would be working to improve it right now, not to kill it.

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December 17, 2009 12:00 PM    in reply to CommunityOrganizer

even the House bill's public option is pretty pathetic

True. But it is something to build on. Fixing the public plan is far different -- i.e., easier -- from introducing the public plan.

Ted Kennedy would be working to improve it right now, not to kill it.

I'll respond as I did when you said this in another thread: Please don't disinter Sen Kennedy and drag him out to defend this feckless White House. Kennedy was A FIGHTER!!!!

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December 17, 2009 12:28 PM    in reply to wbgonne

Kennedy was a master of compromise, the art of the possible. What he was best at was passing legislation, moving a step closer to his goals.

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December 17, 2009 12:35 PM    in reply to Dorn76

Kennedy fought like hell before he settled for what he could achieve. Big BIG difference though the Any-Bill-Will-Do die-hards seem blind to it.

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December 17, 2009 12:03 PM    in reply to CommunityOrganizer

"I think the bill can be made to work."

Really? Do tell.

(You have 8 days to get it done....Ready, Go.)

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December 17, 2009 11:48 AM   

Someone (basically you, Mr. President) has to explain that without the public option, and without the Medicare buy-in.. where is the pressure for bending the cost curve going to come from?

Otherwise you're spending $900 billion to give poor people subsidy money to turn over to the Insurance Company middlemen. (As opposed to actual healthcare providers). The Health Insurance 'oligarhy' will just continue to find loopholes around any legislation you can write, even assuming the best intentions of lawmakers.

Of course I suppose if someone explained how the current Senate bill actually worked for taxpayers benefit, that would only give Lieberman something new to demand be removed.

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December 17, 2009 12:07 PM    in reply to Bull Schmitt

Exactly right. And completely absent from all discussion because the Dems don't even have the guts to defend their own core beliefs. It's like they are ashamed to say that the government should have a role in American health care.

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December 17, 2009 12:21 PM    in reply to Bull Schmitt

The CBO answered your question when it analyzed the Senate Finance bill, which it determined lower the cost curve (and it didn't include a public option). You know more than they do?

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December 17, 2009 12:35 PM    in reply to Bull Schmitt

As Reilly points out the public option, as found in the HELP and House bills, is not designed to bend the cost curve and is projected to cost more than a private plan. I suppose one could be generous and assume you were referring to the medicare-linked public option, the one that failed to pass either house of Congress.

But come on. Medicare buy-in? You're not even trying. You think the "cost curve" will be bent by a program at best only available to those 55 and up? How?

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December 17, 2009 12:37 PM    in reply to Bull Schmitt

The problem in the nutshell is that the logic of the cost control mechanisms still in the bill fly in the face of the ideological beliefs, economic assumptions and near pathological distrust and hatred of the insurance companies. Like, for example, the mandate, which moves healthy people into the premium pool where their premiums can subsidize those of the older and sicker people, and the ten percent profit cap.

However, even though they're real and they'll work (strictly my opinion, which I'm acknowledging, so chill with the attacks, okay?), explaining them to the people who are already mad will only make them madder and more derisive. There's no way out of that box for them.

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December 17, 2009 12:40 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

PLATITUDE ALERT!

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December 17, 2009 1:12 PM    in reply to wbgonne

You keep saying that. I don' think that word means what you think it means.

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December 17, 2009 1:34 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Oh, I'm pretty sure it does.

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December 17, 2009 1:25 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

I have read that the 10% profit cap was negotiated away.

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December 17, 2009 11:49 AM   

Your headline is as big a lie as this bill's billing.

This is not reform.

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December 17, 2009 12:05 PM   

"But time will be of the essence. Democrats are already hoping the momentum behind this bill outweighs the nervousness vulnerable members feel about voting for the legislation..."

The momentum behind this bill? This is a parody, right?

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December 17, 2009 12:06 PM   

The fact that the headline at the top of the page reads "IF the Senate passes the bill..." (emphasis mine) demonstrates that there is no momentum here. Hell, Reid still doesn't have sixty votes.

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December 17, 2009 12:17 PM    in reply to masanf

hey moron, you don't need to bother with your trolling today, most of us oppose the Senate bill too. Go beg for attention elsewhere, I'm sorry your parents neglected you.

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December 17, 2009 12:16 PM   

Why no discussion of the "ping pong" option -- sending the identical Senate bill to the House for passage, unaltered, and then to the President's desk? Thus skipping conference committee and any further cloture votes (and, accordingly, any further potential for defection or additional demands from the fragile 60-vote majority).

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December 17, 2009 12:22 PM    in reply to Cool Blue Reason

Hoyer ruled that out yesterday. The House wants to have input into the bill, as they should.

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December 17, 2009 12:44 PM    in reply to lifeofreilly

Hoyer needs to rule it back in. Every Democratic Senator has a veto. The Senate bill will be too delicate to change. Harry Reid is a master politician to be seriously talking about passing next week.

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December 17, 2009 12:23 PM    in reply to Cool Blue Reason

uh, because most people know the Senate bill is a pile of crap and they're not gonna swallow it whole? Just a guess.
Obama will have to wait for a few principled congressmen to try and salvage it before he has his precious signing ceremony. Although it's probably not worth the trouble at this point.

Dr. Dean is right, the only way they're gonna get real healthcare reform is through reconciliation and circumventing the corporate whores who want to obstruct majority rule and the will of their constituents.

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December 17, 2009 12:34 PM    in reply to Cool Blue Reason

Why bother to have a House of Representatives at all? This 'ping pong' business is fearmongering by Senate ConservaDems, plain and simple. Any changes to our version, and we shoot this puppy... I mean, kill this bill. No wonder Pelosi is demanding the Senate go first on any future controversial legislation.

There was a time when I thought that the White House was advising Reid not to include a public option in the Senate Bill so that at least 60 Senators would have their votes on the record when the P.O. was conferenced into the final bill. (In retrospect, that position's looking a little 11-dimensional chessy to me.)

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mcc

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December 17, 2009 12:45 PM    in reply to Cool Blue Reason

Several House members including at one point Pelosi have indicated they are not comfortable with sacrificing their right to conference. And why not? It would basically mean the House surrendering its say in the bill.

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December 17, 2009 12:23 PM   

I am going to be optimistic and think that the polling people on the White House staff are still as smart as they were during the primaries and the election campaign. That said, the polling people should realize that the Obama's popularity will suffer whether or not this health care (ex-)reform bill is passed. I believe that polling drop will be more catastrophic if the bill fails, and even if it passes Obama will still be perceived as not being able to get a good bill passed.

I do wish that the White House staff would not insult the intelligence of those who most strongly sacrificed to back Obama in the primaries and the election. What we have now is no longer Health Care Reform, but it is the Health Insurance Company Overhead Protection Act of 2009.

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December 17, 2009 12:36 PM    in reply to BronxInTN

I think Obama is smart enough to know that during a process as delicate as this the less he says the better.

A real question, for me and perhaps others who are disappointed with some of Obama's decisions thus far but not yet ready to jump onto the "Obama is a corporofascist pretending to be a slightly left-of-center pragmatist" bandwagon, is what he will do after the bill is passed. Will he continue to sell this compromised bill as the best thing since chewable vitamins, or will he summon the honesty to say, "This bill is a first step, not a last step, toward meaningful health reform. If we want to see more change we need to change the makeup of Congress."

The answer to that question, I think, will go a long way toward determining Obama's future legacy.

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December 17, 2009 12:46 PM    in reply to agio

Obama is smart enough to know that during a process as delicate as this the less he says the better.

Yes, that brilliant strategy has worked so well. Have the most rhetorically gifted president in decades sit out the most important policy debate of his administration. Sheer genius.

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December 17, 2009 1:33 PM    in reply to wbgonne

woof. but you're right.

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December 17, 2009 2:29 PM    in reply to wbgonne

You are misreading my statement, understandably since it was somewhat vague (though I thought the following 'graph made it clearer).

I was saying that if the President came out right now and publicly criticized this bill or the process that is going into making it, it would doubtless make some in his party (myself included) feel better for a while, but it would undercut whatever leverage Reid has left. After all, who is going to take a monumental political risk to pass a bill if the President himself doesn't support it.

I completely agree that the President *should* have been more involved in this process with the Senate (though doubtless there has been a lot of involvement behind the scences, for better or for worse) but using his bully pulpit with the public to goad Senators, perhaps the least accountable to the public elected officials in the U.S., into "behaving" would not, IMHO, have gotten results.

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December 17, 2009 3:28 PM    in reply to agio

using his bully pulpit with the public to goad Senators, perhaps the least accountable to the public elected officials in the U.S., into "behaving" would not, IMHO, have gotten results.

I think you are wrong about that. More importantly, you don't know unless you try.

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December 17, 2009 2:56 PM    in reply to wbgonne

You can't forget that GOPers, by reflex, will automatically reject anything the President says. So, if he had jumped into this, it would be a guarantee that the GOP (and the chickenhawk conservaDems) would've started screaming.

Thus, Reid would have never even gotten to this messed up point of the debate, because the bill would've never passed the first (!) cloture (!) vote.

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mcc

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December 17, 2009 12:51 PM    in reply to BronxInTN

The White House did say Obama was willing to be a one term president if that was what it took to get health care reform passed.

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December 17, 2009 12:24 PM   

Let's say that in conference the Public Option is put back into the bill (as well as other measures), against the wishes of some senators. Can the resulting bill exiting conference then be passed by reconciliation?

Shorter - can reconciliation still be used?

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December 17, 2009 12:36 PM    in reply to JohnPurdue

From what I understand, no. Conference bills CAN be filibustered.

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December 17, 2009 12:27 PM   

There's something about this entire process that has baffled me from the start.

Why did the Democrats insist on calling this Health Care Reform, when it's really INSURANCE REFORM? They allowed themselves to get sucked into moronic discussions of rationing health care when we were really talking about making it possible for more people to afford it. How much crazier would the crazies have sounded this past summer if they were screaming FOR protecting their insurance agent instead of their doctor?

So I ask, is this another example of Democratic ineptitude? Even Republicans are smart enough use "Healthy Forests" when they pass a bill calling for clear-cutting. Can Democrats really be that tone deaf?

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December 17, 2009 2:34 PM    in reply to georgecs

Poor messaging strategy does seem to be a hallmark of the Democratic party. At least we've got better web designers...

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December 17, 2009 12:28 PM   

"Plenty of downsides.

It will be pretty politically destructive for the Democrats if their signature issue goes down in flames. Voters rarely reward failure, and both the Senate Dems and the WH passed up the opportunity to frame this as a prime example of Republican obstructionism."

The truth here is that the "downsides," especially the political ones (such as the one cited above), are built in no matter what the Dems do. It's exactly like Olberman opined last evening—the right wing will call this a disaster, a government takeover, NO MATTER WHAT THE FINAL BILL LOOKS LIKE.

Better to be bold and force filibusters than to concede defeat on the policy AND the politics.

And, no, it's not too late for anything. The bill needs to go to conference and come back as a better bill than the current version the Senate is offering. Get some kind of mechanism for public insurance and, importantly, economic upside in Americans hands right away (subsidies, one-time tax breaks, whatever). As a far-fetched example: You think if the Government picked up the tab on everyone's health insurance for one year there would be any meaningful public opposition to this bill? Hell no. We did it for Wall Street; Now, we're doing it for Main Street. Then Reid says, Hey, folks, this is how the system works. The President addresses to the nation, clarifies the stakes of reform, and cites clearly the obstructionism that has been going on. And, importantly, also says, Hey, this is how our system of Government works. There's a House and a Senate. We now have a fully vetted piece of good legislation, with good ideas from both chambers. This bill demands an up or down vote.

Then if it can't get through—you got the political fodder on the obstructionists and the procedural gymnastics of reconciliation.

This idea that a bill, any bill, is good and a kind of downpaymnet on reform is ludicrous. The political pain of this kind of bill guarantees that Congress will not come back to this year after year for so-called tweaks. Get more of it right this time or do nothing. No, it won't take 10-20 years to get after it again, because in the meantime the system will deteriorate much, much more. The grassroots for real reform will only get stronger and politicians who sit on their hands will get kicked to the curb. This is an economic truth not a glance in the political crystal ball.

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December 17, 2009 7:06 PM    in reply to jcfinsf

I really like your assesment; better to be bold than beg.

And Democrats really, really need to learn how to frame the issue and the process.

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December 17, 2009 12:35 PM   

It's no wonder that legitimate health care reform isn't going to pass. People actually believe the garbage that people like Chuck Norris say...

http://progressnotcongress.org/?p=3412

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December 17, 2009 1:20 PM    in reply to atticus1104

“What if Mother Mary had Obamacare?“

We would have all been saved 33 years earlier?

(I keed,I keed, but when dealing with knuckle dragging grunts its fun to poke fun of their full-of-holes world view)

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December 17, 2009 12:35 PM   

If the current health care bill does not pass, I will place a big bet on President Obama's dropping the health care issue like a hot potato and not returning to advocate wholesale health care reform during his time as president. He will think he has been badly burned on this issue by the left and right of the Democratic party and he will only hurt himself by continuing to push the issue. Therefore, there will be no attempt at using reconciliation or anything like that. Rather, he will change his focus to jobs and concentrate on smaller initiatives like Bill Clinton after 1994. I bet he will also begin developing a plan to deal with the increasing likelihood of a Republican-run Congress in 2011-12 and seeking reelection in that environment. If health care does not pass, Obama will see the writing on the wall and know he needs to get ready for dealing with the Republicans and fighting their policies. He may well conclude that it is not possible for him to get big initiatives through the present Congress, which will quite possibly change parties in 2010. He will also be privately be very angry at the Democrats in Congress who oppose his health care bill and start thinking that his reelection in
2012 is separate from what happens to the congressional Democrats in 2010.

All of this should not surprise progressives because throughout US history when presidents get badly burned on an issue, they drop it and move on to other issues and begin to focus more on positioning themselves for reelection.

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December 17, 2009 12:49 PM    in reply to David Dunham

Of course he will! That's what he should do. If you burn your hand on a hot stove, you don't put your hand back on the stove.

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December 17, 2009 7:14 PM    in reply to David Dunham

Obama has been acting like a loser from the beginning; I always thought that is why he is so craven about begging for Republican votes and being "bipartisan"; he's planning for the time after he's destroyed his base. It's kind of a self-fulfilling proficy; because he burned his base and did not go all out to get the best bill possible, he probably will spend the rest of his presidency with an uncooperative Senate or worse.

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December 17, 2009 12:42 PM   

I gotta say, if all I was watching was MSNBC and FOX and listening the radio, I would have thought for sure the bill was dead.

But I'm proud to see as a Democrat, that these Dems are doing anything to have some kind of Bill. And it will happen.

Sure it may be a slight advantage to the insurance companies now, but as long as something gets passed, in the yrs ahead, the law can and will be improved. I think its a good day to be a Democrat actually.

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December 17, 2009 1:10 PM    in reply to BossDrop

"but as long as something gets passed, in the yrs ahead, the law can and will be improved."

Yeah, just like Medicare was passed 40 years ago deliberately in a way to possibly be able to be expanded to everyone. How's that worked out so far?

I'm much more pessimistic - I think that once this is passed they'll brush their hands off and say "well, we've taken care of the health care problem" and make it MORE likely that it will be a longer time before anything like the PO or expanding Medicare is considered again.

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December 17, 2009 1:11 PM    in reply to BossDrop

"...these Dems are doing anything to have some kind of Bill."
Kindly comment: Perhaps this is why their poll numbers are low...and dropping.
Regards.

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December 17, 2009 1:09 PM   

Proud day to be a democrat? What a laugh!

From: http://www.counterpunch.org/lindorff12172009.html


Doctors will get richer under this "reform." Insurance companies will get vastly richer under this "reform". Pharmaceutical companies will get richer under this "reform". But there will still be millions of people left with no access to health care. There will still be tens of millions of people who will get substandard or even pathetically trashy health care. And the cost of medical care, both for individuals and for society as a whole, already the highest in the world, will continue to soar. To make matters worse, taxes will also go up dramatically, by at least $100 billion a year.

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December 17, 2009 3:33 PM    in reply to T Groan

Oh, so now taxes are an issue. Amazing how those on the left were allright with higher taxes and a mandate a week ago before the public option was dropped, as if forcing people to buy insurance from the government is somehow less onerous than forcing people to buy insurance from a private company.

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December 17, 2009 7:19 PM    in reply to masanf

Of course losing the Public option makes a difference; with the Public option it was worth the price, without the Public option it is just a way to boost insurance company profits while destroying Democrats as the party of mandates for generations to come.

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December 17, 2009 1:31 PM   

Read dailykos' "20 Answers" for why we shouldn't pass this bill based on what we do know of it.

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December 17, 2009 3:32 PM   

Amazing how quickly this article became outdated, given the news of Nelson's no on cloture and his statements indicating the Christmas dead line is arbitrary and ridiculous.

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December 17, 2009 5:32 PM   

How can any true progressive Democrat call this current bill other than a sham? How can you consider; negotiating from universal/single payer to public option to medicare buy in to mandating persons to buy a product that is known to be inadequate for consumers with few legal protections and on top of that still have to buy overpriced drugs, a success for Americans?

This is exactly how the average democratic voter will view this and this is what the elected Democratic leadership is failing to realize who support this bill and who say in so many words “…it’s a start and at least something”. To the average democratic voter this looked like the negotiating skills of an 18 year old trying to buy his/her first car. No wonder it was easy for Bush to scam Democrats into the Iraq war. Voter apathy is the quickest way to lose a majority. Those who believed that some real change was going to happen will not come out in 2010 and possibly not even for 2012.

Progressives should begin to put these leaders to task if the Democrats cannot stand by their ideals.

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December 17, 2009 5:47 PM   

"I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat." -Will Rogers.

To the Blue Dog Democrats and to those in opposition to real health care reform, what are you afraid of?

Throughout the history of the Democratic party(Progressives) in the 20th century it has fallen to you to be the enactors of real societal change. From the introduction of the 19th amendment to the creation of social security, G.I. Bill, civil rights act, voting rights act, and medicare, these are all pieces of legislation that the American citizenry living today cannot truly fathom of the time of not having them. These items reinforce the reciprocity of government and its people, creating a “more perfect union”.

Today, citizens may fight for their nation and come home knowing that they can afford to continue their education. Today, citizens after spending their entire adult working lives paying into the government system that if their retirement funds suddenly evaporate in some Wall street Ponzi scheme there will still be some form of income provided by social security. Today, because of medicare, an elderly citizen can at least get the health care they need. Today, we as a nation can finally say that opportunity is truly available to all and every citizen has the right to effectuate their government regardless of sex or race.

The time has come again for Democrats (Progressives) to be the steadying hand to the invisible hand. It is neither mere accident nor divine providence that the legislative items mentioned above; all came about after a long uninterrupted term of conservative hegemony. It is the realignment of democratic principles with economic and social realities. History has taught us that those who heed the cry “socialism” in these times of change in our nation are regarded as persons with limited foresight by the generations to come. Those that were against the voting rights of 1965 could not imagine a day like November 4th 2008.

So the time has fallen unto us to establish once and for all, a citizen’s right to health care- a human right; if it were not a human right, than man should be considered no more than a pack of rapacious narcissistic jackals motivated by the hunger for profit. Capitalism does not stipulate that government can not be an equal player in the market place. Is it not competition that drives capitalism and innovation? Citizens have more choice in shipping companies to include the United States Post Office, than they have in how to pay for health care. How is that big insurance will not be able to stay competitive if they are truly providing a better service to the people than government?

Democrats(Progessives) be moved by your conscience and ideals, not by your ego and benefactors.

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