Is The SEIU Protecting Blanche Lincoln?

If Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is trying to hide the fact that he's seriously considering a primary run against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), he's not doing a great job of it. Halter's name has been bandied about as a potential challenger for Lincoln for several weeks now. Just last week, as Greg Sargent reported, Halter discussed a bid with progressive bloggers and union leaders in DC. Halter himself has kept quiet about the race on the record. But, lately it appears Lincoln supporters aren't prepared to wait for him to announce his intentions. They're already on the attack.

The battle so far suggests a nasty primary that could split labor and divide the progressives from the state and national Democratic political establishment.

This week, an SEIU-backed group launched a large TV ad campaign attacking potential GOP senate nominee Gilbert Baker, which Arkansas political observers say was a message from the union to Halter that he should stay out of the race. At the same time, the state Democratic Party launched its own ad campaign to say "thank you" to Lincoln for her cloture vote to allow debate on a health care reform bill.

The SEIU move is not a huge surprise. Insiders on the progressive end of things have long complained about the union's refusal to embrace fully their plan to primary Lincoln, preferring instead, progressives say, to pressure her into casting cloture votes on legislation like health care and card check. (After voting for cloture, Lincoln would be free to vote no on the bills, allowing her to run to the right in a difficult reelection bid next year).

National Journal's Reid Wilson sets the stage for the SEIU ads. He reports, "SEIU has been a big Lincoln backer over the years, and labor strategists would love to avoid what could be an ugly primary that puts a Senate seat at even more risk."

SEIU officials suggested to TPMDC last week that the ads were also aimed at pressuring Lincoln -- showing her that the union can flex its financial muscles either for her or against her whenever it wants. Either way, it suggests the focus for the union is on Lincoln -- not on recruiting a more ideologically pure opponent to face her, as progressives would hope.

The state party ad is not necessarily aimed at Halter, either. But it suggests that the Democratic establishment is prepared to wait for Lincoln to vote on key bills before deciding what to do next. And that's not what Halter supporters want to hear.

As for Halter, he's reaching out to unions at the national level. But Arkansas AFL-CIO state fed President Alan Hughes tells TPMDC his group hasn't made a decision about what to do in the primary. He said his members will wait until their March convention to make an endorsement -- though they could meet earlier if it looks like their endorsement is needed sooner. Hughes wouldn't comment on the SEIU ads, saying he hadn't seen them. But he said if he had the money, he'd be running ads against Gilbert "or any of the Republicans in this race" right now, too.

"Labor's keeping its powder dry," Hughes said. "We're waiting until March to decide where to aim our musket fire."

Hughes said there was no "line in the sand" drawn by his group on Lincoln. Some members say EFCA is the most important vote, others say health care reform and still others say it's Lincoln's decision whether to support excise taxes on health care plans included in the Senate Democratic proposal that will make the difference, Hughes said.

"She changes [her positions] by the night -- by the hour," Hughes said. "It's hard to predict where she'll come out."

An Arkansas AFL-CIO source said the Halter hasn't met with them yet. Recent reports say that Halter has met with national union leaders, but local officials in AR told TPMDC he didn't go through them to get those meetings.

Halter may run, but then again, Lincoln may still cast the cloture votes that mean groups like SEIU will stand by the incumbent Democrat. That would mean the national progressives supporting Halter -- who poured money and resources into Arkansas to defeat a Democratic senator they see as a barrier to progressive change -- are facing a tough fight against the Democratic party's political and financial establishment.