Poll: GOP Favored To Hold Kentucky Senate Seat

A new survey of Kentucky by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republicans the early advantage to hold on to this state's open GOP-held Senate seat in 2010, with both GOP candidates Rand Paul and Trey Grayson leading the two Democrats.

Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), leads state Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo by identical margins of 42%-36%. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, leads Conway by 40%-33% and Mongiardo by 44%-35%. The margin of error is ±2.8%.

A PPP survey released yesterday gave Paul a 44%-25% lead over Grayson in the Republican primary, and Conway a 37%-33% edge over Mongiardo for the Democratic nomination.

PPP's Tom Jensen notes that the candidates are still largely unknown, with 38% having no opinion of Mongiardo, 51% with no opinion of Paul, 63% with no opinion of Conway, and 64% with no opinion of Grayson. "The dynamics of the race could change a lot as the eventual nominees become better known and voters in the state react favorably to them or not," Jensen writes. "For now though in a Republican state in what's shaping up to be a Republican year the Republicans are favored to hold this seat."