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Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Vulnerable In 2010, Only Narrowly Ahead Of Unknown Dems
Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)
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A new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) finds first-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr in a vulnerable position headed into 2010, with narrow leads over three unknown Democratic challengers.
Burr leads former state Senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham by 45%-36%; he leads attorney Kenneth Lewis by 43%-37%; and he leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 42%-37%. Against a generic Democrat, he has a statistically insignificant edge of only 42%-41%. The margin of error is ±4%.
Burr's approval rating is 35%, with 37% disapproval. As we've noted before, Burr's problem is not that he's unpopular -- it's that he hasn't made much of an impression at all with the voters, and his fate will rest heavily on the nature of the overall political cycle.
For all three Democrats, anywhere from 69%-81% of North Carolina voters don't have an opinion of them. And in the case of Kenneth Lewis, PPP's Tom Jensen speculates that respondents might have him confused with the very unpopular Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis. Jensen writes: "Lewis may need to invest down the road in some direct mail or Charlotte tv time to make sure voters in the area know he's not that Ken Lewis!"
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Progressive Party
December 16, 2009 12:00 PM
If there is a fired up base of dems, this seat would be taken away from the GOP. Low voter turnout, this seat goes to re-elect Burr. DSCC you have some problems here in NC and with few dollars being contributed, good luck as you will need a ton of luck to turn this seat. DSCC hope you get the message!
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 16, 2009 12:36 PM in reply to Progressive Party
It'd be a mighty sweet pickup, though, wouldn't it? Especially with this hard right DeMintist turn he's taken since we booted Libby.
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Overreach THIS!
December 16, 2009 12:19 PM
How did Burr so fail to make an impression as to who he even his? Seriously? The Senate would seem to be a pretty good springboard to make a splash, you know?
I mean, what if you went to a party in North Carolina somewhere, and people were introducing themselves around. A young woman is mid-management in zinc bushings! That's great, you intone, how is the zinc bushings market?! Another fellow is in agribusiness. Fascinating! (It is all North Carolina (you have always wondered), or does the market reach further out or even potentially overseas -- lots to talk about!)
Convo now turns to you -- what do you do? "Me, well, I in government. Actually, I am the junior United States Senator from North Carolina."
It may seem a bit gauche, but your two interlocutors might now offer you their cards, no?
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Walter Mitty
December 16, 2009 12:34 PM
Cal Cunningham is the candidate recruited by the DSCC - I wonder if they'll now try and clear he deck for him. I think he could use a primary to get his name out though.
NC and NH could both be Dem pick-ups (with Hodes in NH) if the economy turned around enough. It's also why the Dems need to get HCR passed to be able to point to that as an accomplishment.
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AJM
December 16, 2009 2:34 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
And the polling data for HCR in NC indicates what?
Looks like this might be a good place to try and elect a 60th actual Democrat but it is unlikely that HCR will be a factor there in 2010. Where people are doubtful minds wont change until an actual impact is seen.
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Walter Mitty
December 16, 2009 12:36 PM
2010 isn't anti-Democrat, it's anti-Incumbent. The GOP was smart as hell to retire Voinovich, Bunning, Bond, Martinez and Gregg - Dems would have been strong favorites in four of those fave races if the incumbent was running. Now the GOP could hold all five.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 16, 2009 12:38 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
This isn't Britain. Parties don't retire Senators. Senators decide to retire.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 16, 2009 12:38 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Well, okay, they totally retired Bunning's crazy old ass.
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CT Voter
December 16, 2009 12:49 PM
Burr's probably going to shout out at the President during the State of the Union address. That'll fix his image problem. And it's cheap to do, to boot.
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