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Poll: Huckabee Still The Strongest Republican Against Obama, In A Dead Heat
President Obama and Former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
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The new national survey from Public Policy Polling (D) finds President Obama with leads of various margins over potential Republican challengers -- with Mike Huckabee as the strongest one for now.
Obama is in a dead heat with Huckabee, with 46% to Huck's 45%. Obama leads Sarah Palin by 50%-44%, has a stronger lead of 48%-35% over Tim Pawlenty -- likely because of Pawlenty's lower name recognition -- and is ahead of Mitt Romney by 47%-42%. The margin of error is ±2.8%.
From the pollster's analysis: "There is no evidence that Huckabee's been hurt by the bad publicity stemming from the murders committed in Washington last month by an inmate whose sentence Huckabee had commuted. His favorability rating of 35/35 is basically unchanged from 36/37 a month ago."
That could very well be true for now, with only high-information voters knowing about the case. But give Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin some money for attack ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and they might be able to change that.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 10, 2009 11:06 AM
Jesus, will somebody please just give these guys some paying work so they'll stop with the polling of meaningless bullshit for headlines?
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Richardxx
December 10, 2009 11:38 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
More than likely these polls are being funded by wealthy conservative oligarchs who want to know which way to bet in the next election. Who should they buy now while the buying is cheap?
Then the polling company releases the results of the poll as sort of a public service, although actually it is advertising for their polling services.
With those dynamics, hiring the potential candidates wouldn't help in any way. When horses withdraw from the horse race or dogs from the dog race, the owners of the race track just find replacements for the punters to bet on. It would be the same for the Republican nomination for President.
Sorry Steve. You'll just have to quit reading the political news - can you stand the withdrawal symptoms? I couldn't.
Oh, and when do we get pictures of Huckabee that have shown how much weight he has put back on?
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ilovebacon
December 10, 2009 11:58 AM in reply to Richardxx
"Then the polling company releases the results of the poll as sort of a public service, although actually it is advertising for their polling services."
Exactly!
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 10, 2009 2:25 PM in reply to Richardxx
No one has to pay for it. PPP is a Democratic polling firm based here in NC. They do robopolling, which means they can cook one of these things up and fire it off for about the cost of a grande mocha. They're a decent firm when they're attending to business and they do a much better job with methodological transparency and (free) cross tabs than most other pollsters.
But they're not even a little bit shy about running a poll for no other reason than to grab blog headlines and increase top of mind awareness among the consultantocracy they're hoping will think of them when election season runs around.
Same reason Gallup and Rasmussen run their dailies. No one's paying them for those.
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ilovebacon
December 10, 2009 11:45 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
And would TPM STOP publishing headline grabbing polls by shitty pollsters like PPP and Rasmussen? This is f-ing irrelevant. Back in 2005 wasn't it Giuliani destroying Hillary in '08? This is NOT news!
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Indie Pro
December 10, 2009 11:12 AM
But give Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin some money for attack ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and they might be able to change that.
word
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brewmn61
December 10, 2009 11:44 AM in reply to Indie Pro
God knows Obama wouldn't use it in the general. Sometime, the sleazy, bare-knuckled campaign style of the Republicans is a blessing. Namely, when they're running against other Republicans.
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Indie Pro
December 10, 2009 11:50 AM in reply to brewmn61
it's my most favorite time to watch a republican campaign!
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Stone
December 10, 2009 11:32 AM
10% 18-29 year olds? What's the point of this poll, Obama won't run for president in 2010, when this LVM might be accurate.
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kalimuzo
December 10, 2009 11:37 AM
This is some sick sport among the political writers. This has never happened where a president is being polled every single day. He has 3 more years before he has to worry about an election give it a rest. You have never picked a winner this far out. A year before the 92 election the argument was that Bush was so popular no democrat wanted to run against him, no one thought Hillary could lose the primary, Guilliani was the front runner, no one had heard of Goerge W till 2 years into Clintons presidency. The point is you can not predict the future this far out and that is why in the past polling was not done till close to the elections. All these polsters need to get a job.
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BeeClone
December 10, 2009 12:51 PM in reply to kalimuzo
But it pays so well so why not have a never ending election.
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roxsteady
December 10, 2009 11:44 AM
Exactly, because this Liberal is not voting for some fat, sweaty, ignorant preacher who disguises himself as a reasonable choice to Liberals and Progressives. Like that phony ass Joe Scarborough, we're on to you guys and aren't buying it. They're still members of a party of cross burners and womb chasers and would never get my vote!
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ru4862
December 10, 2009 11:45 AM
JESEUS! The election was settled in November 2008. Can we please stop it with these meaningless polls? seriously.
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roxsteady
December 10, 2009 11:47 AM
Besides, that party still doesn't understand the concept of Separation of Church and State. They seem to think it's just some lunacy made up by Liberals. I don't want anyone sitting in the Whitehouse who would subject they're decisions to what "god" tells them to do.
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ilovebacon
December 10, 2009 11:59 AM
Huckster has put on pounds. And the radioactive baggage from releasing two child-rapist, women-murderer, cop-killer thugs truly destroys any political future for him. I do think that the left has over-estimated Huckabee's appeal. We think that he is what middle America wants (Kos said his great appeal is that he "doesn't sound insane." Really???)
I don't know who it will be, but I suspect it will be someone deemed electable, a la Romney, Gingrich, or Giuliani. This, in turn, will cause a revolt on the peasant right, likely fueling a third party candidacy--Teabagger Party, anyone? Sarah, Beck, Dobbs?
I also would like to say that I have tirelessly perused the field of all probably GOP candidates, as well as unsuspected potential candidates, and have come to the strong conclusion that the GOP has nobody who can beat Obama in '12. Not even close.
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Darrius
December 10, 2009 1:02 PM in reply to ilovebacon
None of the guys is electable. Romney and Huckabee would be electable if they were Democrats but they are Republicans. If you haven't notices Republicans have gotten more racist and more nativist since Obama became President. There is no way that the Republican party will nominate someone who released not one but TWO criminals who went on to to commit murder, especially since one these criminals was a Black man who went on to kill police officers.
As bad as Republican primary voters will view Huck's pardon history, they are even less likely to nominate a Mormon.
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Kali Star
December 10, 2009 12:01 PM
It's embarrassing to see posters demonize the polls rather than deal with the politics. Were these polls a good showing for Obama, there would be quite a different response. "Head in the sand" won't make political reality go away.
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Stone
December 10, 2009 12:10 PM in reply to Kali Star
You might have a point if his next election were next week. But it's not, so you don't.
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Kali Star
December 10, 2009 12:37 PM in reply to Stone
If you don't think that Obams is losing support among the base that elected him, you aren't dealing with a political reality. That is the point.
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jenesq
December 10, 2009 1:04 PM in reply to Kali Star
And those people would vote for Huckabee?
Yes, I know that Obama is losing the support of the instant-gratification types who apparently never actually bothered to look into Obama's platform and instead voted for a uber-progressive fairytale, but I'm sure not going to blame Obama if those same immature whiners pull a "Nader 2000" and turn this country over to some wingnut.
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Stone
December 10, 2009 1:34 PM in reply to Kali Star
That's not what the poll cited here says. Only 3% of liberal Democrats disapprove of Obama in this poll.
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jenesq
December 10, 2009 12:12 PM in reply to Kali Star
But these polls aren't "reality." They're hypotheticals...hypotheticals that may sound good on paper, but won't stand up in the real world. If we put stock in these types of polls, Rudy 9/11 ought to be President right now, having defeated Hillary Clinton for the job.
So what can we learn from these polls? Absolutely nothing, save for the obvious fact that it's a damn sight harder to be popular when you are actually governing and making difficult choices than it is to be popular when you are a professional celebu-candidate. But when push comes to shove, the Huckabee craziness--genial though it may be--is going to fail, because people like centrists and always have.
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Dorn76
December 10, 2009 12:21 PM in reply to Kali Star
The politics of this poll don't matter yet.
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Viva!America!
December 10, 2009 12:26 PM in reply to Kali Star
If the polls were a good showing for Obama, they would not have been made public. Obama doing well? Yawn!
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TaraV
December 10, 2009 1:03 PM
How many people really even know who this guy is?? Lest the public forget:
"[Some of my opponents] do not want to change the Constitution, but I believe it's a lot easier to change the constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God, and that's what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards," Huckabee said, referring to the need for a constitutional human life amendment and an amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman.
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ru4862
December 10, 2009 1:15 PM
Barack Obama is doing everything to make sure he will be re-elected in 2012. Honestly, Huckabee is no match for Obama, because the guy the poses the biggest threat to Obama is now his Chinese Ambassador.
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Powkat
December 10, 2009 2:22 PM
The disaster of the Shrub wasn't enough? Now the idiots want Huckabee. I swear the average IQ in this country must be way under 100 by now.
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