
A new Rasmussen poll has Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) trailing all four Republican candidates in her 2010 re-election fight.
State Sen. Kim Hendren leads Lincoln by 46%-39%; State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker is ahead by 47%-41%; businessman Curtis Coleman is ahead by 44%-40%; and businessman Tom Cox leads Lincoln by 43%-40%.
The pollster's analysis says that the state's opposition to the health care bill -- particularly the intense opposition -- is a factor: "Against all four Republicans, she leads by wide margins among those who favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. The senator even leads by a wide margin among those who Somewhat Oppose the legislation. But among those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan, Lincoln trails every potential Republican challenger by more than 50 percentage points."
jolly ranchero
December 3, 2009 9:27 AM
And in nearly every survey I've seen, Southern states including Arkansas have the highest rates of poverty, diabetes, obesity, teenage pregnancy, and a host of other medical needs that scream out for better health care and insurance. And yet they vote against their own well-being every single time. Anti-Darwinian.
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 9:33 AM in reply to jolly ranchero
The number of working-class and poor uninsured wingnuts in Arkansas is truly staggering. Most of it stems from irrational fears about Obama (you know, the Kenyan "Muslin" socialist Hitler). The whole state is a textbook case of the Southern Strategy, among other things.
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lousgirl84
December 3, 2009 1:06 PM in reply to jenesq
Maybe its good they don't have health care.....i'm just sayin
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holyhandgrenaid
December 3, 2009 9:47 AM in reply to jolly ranchero
Actually that would be about as Darwinian move as they could make... opposing a measure that could improve their own health.
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mamiller
December 3, 2009 10:17 AM in reply to holyhandgrenaid
Bravo!
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lyleleander
December 3, 2009 10:53 AM in reply to jolly ranchero
But in their defense, when they think about opposing the health bill, they don't think about poor white people like themselves benefitting from it, they think of poor minorities benefitting... and that's what drives their insane hatred of it.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 3, 2009 11:11 AM in reply to lyleleander
I'm not really sure that's so much a defense as an indictment.
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zachrogers
December 7, 2009 8:21 PM in reply to jolly ranchero
this medicare bill will break everybody else, the government has failed to successfully run any other program (social security, medicare, medicaid, welfare, cash for clunkers, corporate bailouts, economic bailouts, airline regulation, housing tax credits, jobs summits, global warming initiatives) what on gods green earth possesses you to think that they can effectively manage one-fifth of the economy?!?!?!?!
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 9:29 AM
Hmm, Blanche, maybe you should worry more about rallying your base of pro-public-option supporters than winning back the wingnuts who probably would not have voted for you anyway (but who will, I'm sure, happily enroll in a public option plan without batting one eyelash over the hypocrisy). Or, in the alternative, perhaps you could do the right thing and not worry about its impact on your re-election chances...although I know that's apparently too much to ask.
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mophan
December 3, 2009 10:00 AM in reply to jenesq
That is exactly what I wanted to say, and that is exactly what she needs to do. She needs to make sure her base is fired up and ready to go vote on election day. If she doesn't bring home the bacon, they're just gonna stay home and not vote. Of course, she'll have a nice cushy job in the insurance industry waiting for her if she looses.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 3, 2009 11:16 AM in reply to mophan
You're both falling into the Hamsher fallacy, the most common form of magical thinking on the left. There simply aren't enough people in Arkansas who'd fall into your definition of "the base" to make a fart's worth of difference to her chances next year, even if there was 100% turnout among them. Trying to simply wish desired states of facts into existance is the other side's forte.
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Mr.E.
December 3, 2009 11:33 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Admittedly, I don't know current Arkansas demographics, but your argument that an incumbent can't get elected seems to contain a false premise.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 3, 2009 11:41 AM in reply to Mr.E.
See my comment below. The problem is that now her constituients know her.
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Darrius
December 3, 2009 1:27 PM in reply to Mr.E.
I live in Arkansas. There are enough Democrats to elect Blanche Lincoln if they turn out for her. Every statewide office that really matters is currently held by a Democrat now. Blanche Lincoln has a few problems. The biggest of which is......
THE PRESIDENT IS BLACK. Being black gives him reverse coattails in Arkansas. That is Lincoln's biggest problem by leaps and bounds. Blacks and whites fight over everything in Arkansas no matter how small, no matter obvious, no matter how good it may be for both groups.
Because Obama is black a large portion of whites, not all but a majority, will oppose anything he wants, no matter how much it helps them. If he offered to give all Arkansans magic wands that let them do magic like Harry Potter, they are opposed to that because they want staffs like Gandalf from Lord of the Rings.
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 3:11 PM in reply to Darrius
I agree completely. There is a reason that Arkansas was the only state to vote LESS Democratic in 2008 than in 2004, and that reason is the color of the President's skin. I have longstanding ties in that state that have been severed due to people whom I thought to be nice, reasonable individuals simply going off their rocker over Barack Obama. (It's such a segregated state that there was, up to that point, no way to fully appreciate how incredibly racist the "normal people" in that state are until the 2008 election, although anyone who followed the tribulations of Razorback coach Nolan Richardson had some inkling.)
The thing is, though, that there are some Dems who will not support Lincoln if she bags on health care reform, and their votes were more strongly Dem than any of the "swing voters'" votes would have been. Her loss is cemented if she loses the sure votes like that.
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 3:13 PM in reply to jenesq
By "normal people," I mean the non-KKK types. And yes, I have come across some open KKK types there.
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sunnysteve
December 3, 2009 9:31 AM
I think Lincoln's problem is her lack of commitment and leadership on the health care issues, just as one example. She is going to lose the votes of the deeply conservative in any case, and they are strongly motivated to actually vote. Liberals and, especially, moderates are less motivated, in part because there have not been strong, articulated arguments made for the issues they care about. She needs to win by a larger margin among these voters, and she has to get them to vote.
Democrats will take some losses, for sure. The wishy washy Democrats will be most vulnerable.
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ETSpoon
December 3, 2009 9:36 AM
So let me wrap my head around this: Senator Blanche Lincoln trails all her potential Republican opponents in the aggregate poll results because 50% plus of those strongly opposed to any health care legislation would vote for any Republican.
O.K., what can we deduce from this?
First, Senator Lincoln's intransigence on health care insurance reform legislation may truly reflected that she fully understood her constituents' attitudes.
Second, the average Arkansan is truly stupider than we sophisticates in the upper Midwest, Northeast and West Coast even though possible.
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clonecone
December 3, 2009 9:38 AM
It's time for Bill Clinton to return to government. He'd keep the seat in Democratic hands and he being an ex-president gives him a boost in seniority.
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 9:48 AM in reply to clonecone
Don't bet on it. The crazy is much stronger with today's Beck-fed wingnuts.
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mostman
December 3, 2009 9:48 AM
Lincoln opposes bill. Constituents oppose bill. Constituents oppose Lincoln. Something doesn't work here.
Are these people too stupid to realize that she opposes the bill? Do they see the (D) and just hate her by default?
I can't stand Lincoln because I think she is a coward, but polls like this honestly make me feel bad for her. Its lose lose.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 3, 2009 11:40 AM in reply to mostman
The only way to deal with the situation she's in is to play it "feisty." It's the act that Snowe and Collins use to stay in office despite representing people who are much more liberal than they are. It's like, here's how I'm voting and I'm doing it because of my deeply held convictions (real or simulated) and you people are free to toss me out if it becomes obnoxious to you. In the end, people remember the display of "character" (real or simulated) and forget the particular issue where they parted company.
Nelson plays a varient of this scam, except in his case its the "standing up to my own party" variation.
Lincoln doesn't manage either varient. Instead, she's exactly the kind of Blue Dog who's doomed because she comes across as a cowering, spineless weakling who has been frightened into venal pandering to her constituients and it makes people think, "why should we have a gutless, character-free faux Republican who we know is voting against her own conscience to pander to us when we can have a real one?"
She's simply hosed. On one hand, it's way too late for her to fake "feisty" after five years of very public cringing cowardice. On the other, she can't vote her way out of trouble by acting Republican because it will be seen as just more evidence of her lack of character and the attack ads are going to be just as vicious regardless of how she votes.
At this point, it's like Shepherd Book said: "if you can't do something smart, do something right." Unfortunately, I have seen no evidence that she has sufficient brains to see and accept her prediciment or sufficient character to grasp the lesson.
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Mr.E.
December 3, 2009 12:07 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Your points are well-reasoned. She may just be toast. So she either continues to keep her head down, and then follow the private money trail after her loss (or drop out of the race entirely) or go for it, and hope a Hail Mary generates enough enthusiasm to squeak by.
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jenesq
December 3, 2009 3:14 PM in reply to Mr.E.
Or, she could simply do what's right and live with the consequences.
LOLOLOLOL, yeah, sure!
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admiralmpj
December 3, 2009 2:23 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Was that an actual Firefly quote I saw?
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 3, 2009 9:39 PM in reply to admiralmpj
"Serenity," actually. But I'm sure you knew that. The cancellation of "Firefly" is one more thing on the long list of reasons I hate Newscorp.
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Mr.E.
December 3, 2009 11:55 AM in reply to mostman
But it's not clear that it's lose-lose. First, the article doesn't specify who was polled; registered voter, likely voters, eligible voters, only older people with land lines but no younger voters with only cell phones. Second, only half of the lose-lose is a given. Among those who will actually vote, if the conservatives really already have 50% +1 voters that won't change, she will lose. The support for Hoffman over actually electing an R, the attacks on Crist, and the Rs pushing for a purity test all indicate that 'tis not the season for compromise among conservative voters. So I agree with the other writers that her running to the right offers no real hope of picking up more votes. Her choices are to go all in with the Ds or go with her current Hoover / ostrich in the sand approach, which clearly isn't working. Half-hearted support, voting for cloture but against the bill is unlikely to gain her any support at the polls from anybody. So, if she changes course, she may be able to pull out a win, and if she can't win in any case, she could still do right for the people of her state. If she supports health care and it passes, it will not take long for people to see that they are either better for it, or at least no worse. A loss in the next election doesn't mean she can't come back later, as the political winds of demographics continue to shift, even in Arkansas.
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lapdogs
December 3, 2009 9:53 AM
Hey Blanche, if you're going to ACT like a Republican, then the voters might just as well elect a REAL Republican!
Serves you right for not acting and voting like a Democrat.
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chimpale
December 3, 2009 10:16 AM in reply to lapdogs
She's trying to mix in with the Republicans, hoping that the voters get confused and accidentally vote for her.
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Barry Ragin
December 3, 2009 9:54 AM
Democrats have sure done a great job of selling health care reform this time around, haven't they? It's like even they don't think it's a good idea any more.
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pmb50
December 3, 2009 10:04 AM
you wont be missed. You have no principles and no reason for any democrats to vote for you
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mans_best_friend
December 3, 2009 10:10 AM
I have a penny in my pocket that has more value than a poll almost a year from the election. Also, it's Rasmussen...adjust by 4 points.
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agio
December 3, 2009 10:45 AM
Why do I have a feeling Lincoln knows her loss in 2010 is inevitable, and is playing not to get re-elected, but to get a fat lobbying job with AHIP afterward?
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