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Poll: 'Tea Party' Beats Republican Party In Popularity Contest
Protesters at the 9/12 Tea Party March on Washington
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A new Rasmussen poll suggests that the Tea Party movement is far and away more popular than the Republican Party it seeks to influence -- so much so that if it were a full-fledged political party, it would overtake the GOP on the generic Congressional ballot.
The question was phrased as follows: "Okay, suppose the Tea Party Movement organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district, or the Tea Party candidate from your district?"
The results: Democratic 36%, Tea Party 23%, Republican 18%.
The pollster's analysis makes clear that for multiple reasons an actual political party would be unlikely to stay viable -- but the potential exists for the Tea Party crowd to gain traction within the existing institutions, such as taking over the GOP. "In practical terms, it is unlikely that a true third-party option would perform as well as the polling data indicates," the analysis says. "The rules of the election process -- written by Republicans and Democrats -- provide substantial advantages for the two established major parties. The more conventional route in the United States is for a potential third-party force to overtake one of the existing parties."
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converse
December 7, 2009 9:23 AM
Must remember, this is "Rasmussen's World" (like "Wayne's World" only right about 10K), where there's always more Reps than Dems, and now more TBs than Reps, because, real or not, "that's the way 'ol Ras likes it".
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 7, 2009 9:34 AM in reply to converse
Yeah, but among the righties, they've probably got the ratio of
Teabaggers to old school Republicans about right. The important thing going forward is convincing the old school guys that it's better to stay home or vote for the Democrat than to let the lunatics take over Congress. That's a hard sell given how prone Republicans have always been to engage denial rather than acknowledge the danger of their party's extremists.
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CityGuy
December 7, 2009 9:51 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Agree. My money would be on the TB movement taking over the GOP. Hell, with Palin, Rushbo, et al it already has, for all practical purposes. The "old line" Rupubs are out of power and out of ideas.
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cwnidog
December 7, 2009 1:00 PM in reply to CityGuy
I'd quibble a bit here. I think that many of the "old line Repubs" have become what we call "Blue Dog" or "DLC" Democrats. And as such they actually have a great deal of power, remember that old "Goldwater Girl" Hillary?.
But I'm 100% with you on the "out of ideas" part.
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converse
December 7, 2009 2:09 PM in reply to cwnidog
If you think that robo-call polls that consistently lean to the right of nearly all other national polls constitutes "best pollster", then feel free to delude yourself with Ras' musings.
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markg8
December 7, 2009 10:13 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
We've been trying to figure out why pro-choice, pro-stem cell Judy Biggert (R)-IL-13) voted for the Stupak amendment and has been going far beyond her usual Republican weirdness, citing and linking to baldfaced lies by Charles Krauthammer and the WSJ op-ed page in her weekly emails to constituents.
She usually draws an anti-choice opponent in the primary who takes about a third of the vote but not this time. So I guess her polling must be telling her the same thing Rasmussen says. She'll do her best to shore up the teabagger base, maybe go to the middle for the summer to try to mollify indies and spend the fall claiming she's the only thing that stands between armed census workers showing up on our doorsteps to collect for Obama. Somebody tell me again how that's supposed to result in Republican wins?
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Icon
December 7, 2009 12:23 PM in reply to converse
In terms of sampling methodology, Rasmussen is arguably the best pollster of all.
Applying statistics, it's impossible to ever be 100% sure about something, but Rasmussen's methods allow for one of the closest approximations of the truth among pollsters.
The fact that you don't like the numbers they generate is another matter entirely.
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twirling fartknocker
December 7, 2009 1:44 PM in reply to Icon
sorry, but like 'em or not, I just don't buy that the right has a 5-point advantage over Dems across the nation. something is funky there
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converse
December 7, 2009 2:10 PM in reply to Icon
See above.
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nanorich
December 7, 2009 5:40 PM in reply to Icon
In the polling industry, Rasmussen is considered down market, if not polling group situated to do market research for Republican candidates, and little else.
Their samples are small. They randomization formulas are questionable....and having actually been called for this poll, I was embarrassed at how poorly skewed the questions were. It would have been considered a push poll by a legitimate polling operation. They over sample Republicans without bothering to weight their over samples. They are laughed at by professional pollsters.
I just have to laugh at your ridiculous assertion regarding their methodology.
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Icon
December 10, 2009 3:33 PM in reply to nanorich
Uh, do you actually know anything about their methodology?
Their sample sizes are considerably larger than most other pollsters, and they have the generally-liberal endorsement from Nate Silver.
You seem to be talking out of your ass because you don't like their numbers.
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nanorich
December 11, 2009 10:08 PM in reply to Icon
My exhusband worked for 27 years at the Los Angeles Times Poll. (which was one of the most respected polling organizations in America until the Tribune pulled the plug on it.)
I know a little bit about polling, especially methodology, especially about sample size and margin for error.
As I was actually polled by this particular poll, I was kind of stunned at how unprofessional this poll was. The questions beyond bordered on push polling. It was embarrassing.
I don't care what Nate Silver says, the margin for error and sample size above 1000 pretty much stays in the +-3% range MOE(because above that you get into diminishing returns.)
Now tell me about all your polling experience.
And why Rassmussen generally always over sample Republicans and does bother to do the proper weighting and why that is aces with you?
And the next time you accuse someone of talking out their ass, you might wanna work harder.
In my message there were real hints that I actually knew what I was talking about.
And Nate was talking about tracking polls....which I won't bother to explain to you....
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Cy Guy
December 7, 2009 9:58 AM
Please! Please! Please!
...
"The pollster's analysis makes clear that for multiple reasons an actual political party would be unlikely to stay viable"
Meaning the Tea Party, or the Republican Party?
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Catsy
December 7, 2009 10:54 AM in reply to Cy Guy
Yes.
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JEP07
December 7, 2009 11:22 AM in reply to Catsy
LOL!
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Matt Jones
December 7, 2009 4:13 PM in reply to Cy Guy
Of course a Teabagger party would have problems - the only thing they agree on is that all government (and especially the pols) is bad. Hard for a candidate to justify why he should be put in charge of something that he doesn't believe in. It'd be like running an atheist for Pope.
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Jaycal
December 7, 2009 7:54 PM in reply to Matt Jones
And the issue with your last line is?
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Mr.E.
December 7, 2009 9:27 PM in reply to Matt Jones
Really, I'm pretty sure that was one of Reagan's primary planks.
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nanorich
December 7, 2009 10:00 AM
I actually was called on this poll....and the questions were almost overt push poll question. I had to work very hard to answer like I cared. (it is a Robopoll.)
You will note there are NO internals nor MOE results contained in this story. You have to pay to look at their crappy methodology.
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Michael A
December 7, 2009 11:59 AM in reply to nanorich
Typical ratsmussen bullsh*t. Real numbers probably 41% to 46% dem, 25% teaparty, 5% repuke, the rest "undecided", because they don't care, which is a shame.
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nanorich
December 7, 2009 12:09 PM in reply to Michael A
Still the margin for error might have been interesting.
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Indie Pro
December 7, 2009 10:01 AM
I bet a stiff slap in the face could be the GOP in a popularity contest.
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CityGuy
December 7, 2009 10:21 AM in reply to Indie Pro
And prove more enjoyable as well!
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Number6
December 7, 2009 3:45 PM in reply to Indie Pro
"To our winning candidate, Saint Sarah "The Quitter" Palin, the Republican National Committee most proudly extends...a BOOT TO THE HEAD!"
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jenesq
December 7, 2009 10:05 AM
If NY-23 is the baseline outcome for this kind of phenomenon, may I use the trite phrase "bring it on." If a staunchly-Republican-for-150-years district can go Dem because of a Tea Party spoiler candidate, I'm all for it.
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Moose49
December 7, 2009 10:22 AM
I don't know. I think if you added "teabagging" to the poll, that might have come out number one.
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storm
December 7, 2009 10:24 AM
i think a push should be made for instant runoff. maybe this would be enough to get support from the right?
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Knothead Jake
December 7, 2009 10:29 AM
As far as I'm concerned, I think the more racist,homophobic, xenophobic, birther, deather, climate change denying, hillbillies get the media's attention the better. It looks bad. Bad for them. Just because they aren't embarrassed doesn't mean the rest of the GOP isn't. I mean first off look how they dress. Look at the shape of their hydrocephalus heads. The poor vocabulary, the poor spelling. They're a trainwreck that keeps on Wrecking and Rollin. Wreckin and Rolling that has a ring to it. All cockroaches should see the light of day.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
December 7, 2009 10:52 AM in reply to Knothead Jake
Unfortunately, the MSM is covering for them. That's why why George Will is still the voice of conservatism on ABC's Sunday round table (though praise them for adding Krugman) and why we can't go a single effing Sunday without an appearance by McCain or Graham. McCain and Graham fill up time that would otherwise have to be given to people like DeMint who are the real voice of the party today. Putting on good old familiar President McLiebergraham assues gramma and grampa that the GOP is still just as sensible as ever.
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JEP07
December 7, 2009 11:25 AM in reply to Knothead Jake
"Just because they aren't embarrassed doesn't mean the rest of the GOP isn't."
good point...
It is something like a family member running naked through the neighborhood.
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JEP07
December 7, 2009 11:18 AM
The Dead Moose Party is on the rise!
And woe to every sensible Republican who questions their confused agenda.
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JEP07
December 7, 2009 11:22 AM in reply to JEP07
If anyone has yet seen a copy of the Dead Moose Party manifesto, or their litmus test, could you post it here?
Or do they have the kind of unity that might produce such documents?
So far, the 'baggers can't seem to find their real roots, let alone a unified platform. If anyone has seen a litmus test list or a statement of agreed policy, please post it for us.
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bluesplashy
December 7, 2009 11:42 AM in reply to JEP07
I would love to see the platform of the Teabaggers Party also. My nephew was up here telling me that they dislike the Republicans as much as they do Democrats and they also hate any wars. I was like huh?
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pl3bian
December 7, 2009 12:46 PM in reply to bluesplashy
Your nephew met some Libertarians, which are basically rightwingers who smoke pot.
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RHERSH12
December 7, 2009 11:19 AM
There are still moderate Republicans like a lot of our parents, who believe in limited government, fiscal sanity and freedom from interference from Washington. The people who stayed home in 11/2008 because Obama didn't scare them and McCain didn't inspire. If you watch the MSM you'd be unaware that these people still make up the majority of the GOP. They're just not active and photogenic enough.
The best thing that could happen for the Dems is for the TeaBirthers to gain significant numbers and fracture the GOP, making the right lose tight general election races. It's a shame for the moderating influence of centrist Repubs to be diluted, as it has always had an important role, but hey, they let these crazies out of the cage.
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JEP07
December 7, 2009 11:30 AM in reply to RHERSH12
"these people still make up the majority of the GOP."
That may be optimistic these days, isn't this poll evidence that the sensible Republicans are quickly losing their majority status in their own party?
And I do agree, there are a lot of good old fashioned fiscal conservative Republicans, but they aren't attending the 'bagger "conventions."
And it was Rove's cobbled-together "permanent majority" chimera that started all of this. Now those disparate "parts" he married up to create the Bush debacle are divorcing.
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bluestatedon
December 7, 2009 12:42 PM
If the Teabagger Party wants to run candidates against the GOP and Dem candidates, I'll happily contribute money to them. A strong Teabagger Party means certain doom for the GOP, and nothing could be more richly deserved. I look forward to a Palin/Beck Teabagger duo in 2012 as much for the hilarity that would ensue as the damage it would wreak on the Rethuglicans.
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Number6
December 7, 2009 1:08 PM
Maybe we wouldn't have any health care, public education, libraries, or roads...but think what it would do for the price of tea!
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Silence
December 7, 2009 4:11 PM
Still can't figure those TEA part patriots out, huh? Read the constitution. That should shed some light on the subject.
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CityGuy
December 7, 2009 9:09 PM in reply to Silence
You mean the sections where it deals with free and fair election of the president and Congress? And further empowers them to pass, and sign into laws, bills governing our nation? That part? And remember, if a law is truly unconstitutional, the Supreme Court is there to strike it down.
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Silence
December 8, 2009 7:05 AM in reply to CityGuy
Try this one.
Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.
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Knothead Jake
December 7, 2009 4:47 PM
There are many factors that the Teascrotums beat the "normal?" GOP.
1-Unique head shape and sheer size.
2-Limited gene pool. Ain't that raht Inbred Fred". "That's a big Rogee,Unkee Daddy.
3.Toothlessness
4.Cluelessness
5.unique odor
6.Racist intensity
7.Sheer stupidity
8.Allegiance to morons (Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity, Malkin, Coulter)
9.Climate change denial
10.Homophobia
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traitorjoe
December 7, 2009 7:41 PM
So if they file official status as a party for 2010 we'll have 3 icons - The Donkey, The Elephant, and the Horse's Ass.
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Jaycal
December 7, 2009 7:57 PM in reply to traitorjoe
Or a picture of Miss Polly Prissy Pants, a la Southpark. She loves her a Tea Party!
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sully18
December 7, 2009 10:02 PM
My great uncle,Arthur Watson Sparks, was an American Impressionist in the early 1900s.He painted a beautiful landscape called "The Tea Party." It is a peaceful and luscious painting of an outdoor tea
party in the mid-afternoon.I am the current owner.
I certainly wish that these Neanderthals would use another name for themselves.Not only do they dishonor the Boston Tea party,but also my uncle`s work.
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Silence
December 8, 2009 7:14 AM in reply to sully18
They dishonor a peaceful and luscious painting of an outdoor tea?
Well, that's the last straw. These scoundrels must be stopped.
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RectoNoVerso
December 8, 2009 8:46 AM
Ok it's funny but ... generic Congressional ballot polls are meaningless.
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