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GOP Faces Electoral Risks In Running On Health Care Repeal
Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics
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With the GOP getting closer and closer to a 2010 campaign pledging to repeal the health care bill, what are some of the political pitfalls -- or potential benefits? We asked University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, and he told us that the GOP could face risks because of the popular individual components of the bill.
"There are very popular parts of the health care bill, i.e., the insurance reforms. If the GOP doesn't exempt those from repeal, they'll be making a major error. Overwhelming majorities of voters want to stop insurance companies from cutting off insurance just when it is needed the most," Sabato said.
On the other hand: "There are also unpopular parts of the bill, potentially including new fees and taxes (depending on what is actually adopted). Politically, it could be popular for the Republicans to focus on repealing them or cutting them back. Of course, without the money, there can't be a restructuring of health care."
Sabato also made clear that the real problem is one of political credibility. If Obama is still president, then his veto pen should probably be enough to stop any repeal efforts even if the GOP took both houses of Congress.
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Walter Mitty
December 28, 2009 6:57 PM
Shhhh! Let them run on this before telling them how bad an idea it is. Of course the GOP has been ginning up fear in seniors, who unlike many new obama voters of 2008 will vote in the mid-terms - so this is likely their long term strategy.
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shooter242
December 29, 2009 9:33 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
Why in the world are you folks assuming a healthcare bill is going to pass at all? Nobody knows what the final version will look like, and whatever the House adds from their version will kill it in the Senate.
Republicans won't have to run on repeal, it won't pass in the first place.
Keep up the good work.
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Silence
December 28, 2009 8:15 PM
The big Dem tax hikes will kick in with absolutely no benefit for 4 years. Just a guess, but that alone should be enough to bring forth the required voter gag reflex.
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Maritza
December 29, 2009 12:18 AM in reply to Silence
Actually the taxes won't affect any more than 3% of the population.
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vamonticello
December 28, 2009 8:45 PM
1st of all, Republicans have NO plan. Running a strictly NEGATIVE campaign will FAIL. Democrats will run on IMPROVING the healthcare system, Republicans will run on DESTROYING the healthcare system. Dems will win in a landslide. Classic case of HOPE versus FEAR. Cutting waste from the system is a good thing. 30 more MILLION americans with healthcare is a GOOD thing. CAmpaign slogan for democrats "VOTE REPUBLICAN, LOSE YOUR HEALTHCARE!"
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USgreentech
December 28, 2009 9:18 PM
I doubt they could win in the first place with the misbehavior they have exhibited.
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Zephyrus
December 28, 2009 10:14 PM
I'm generally pretty bullish about Republican chances in 2010, even in indigo blue states.
All bets are off, though, if they are stupid enough to run on the platform of "repealing" healthcare reform. At least they should put the effort into thinking of a positive phrasing--I dunno, healthcare reform reform. Even that, though, would be a plain loser.
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Maritza
December 29, 2009 12:16 AM
In order for health care reform to work you can't just repeal the bad parts and keep the good parts. For example, just keeping the insurance reforms withough increasing the number of people into the system of 30 million means that EVERYONE who has insurance will have HIGHER premiums to cover the insurance reforms.
Thus premiums will remain "low" despite getting rid of lifetime caps, annual caps, getting rid of pre-existing conditions, equal pay for women and men simply because health care reform adds 30 million people many of which are young and healthy thus balance the insurance reforms.
Thus mandates and insurance reforms go hand in hand.
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oblio
December 29, 2009 1:29 AM
I really think the GOP might actually lose seats in 2010, with the political path they seem to be rooting for.
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Beetlejuice
December 29, 2009 4:04 AM
As it now stands, I would like nothing more than to see this bill in its current form die. But that doesn't mean I throw my support republicans. That means I don't like all the republican gothcas and oh-fucks they crammed into the bill abusing Obama's demand to the Democrats to be bipartisan. Cut out the republican cr@p in the bill and put the blue dogs on a short leash with a choker collar and the bill will be more representative of what the public wants and I'll support it.
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