Stabenow Says Nelson Abortion Amendment Unlikely To Pass

There is an important point that the pro-choice groups are missing with respect to passing health care reform. If the fight over abortion language results in the Democrats in the Senate not getting the 60 votes needed to pass a health care bill, the chances of the Democrats losing Congress in 2010 will be greater because the public will blame the Democrats for getting nothing done. In addition, failing to pass health care reform will hurt Obama's standing as president and make him more likely to lose to a Republican in 2012. Obama in 2012 may not have the benefit of having a rapidly recovering eceonomy as Bill Clinton did in 1996.

With respect to the abortion issue, the consequences of having a Republican Congress elected in 2010 and a Republican president elected in 2012 would be that the new president would very likely get to appoint to the Supreme Court a replacement for Ginsberg, Stevens or Breyer (I hear they will not retire simply to let Obama replace them), and the Court would then have a 5-4 majority that would proceed quickly to overrule Roe v. Wade the first chance they get. If Roe is overturned, the old anti-abortion laws still on the books in a clear majority of states around the country would come back into effect, and abortion would be illegal immediately in most states in the US. And once Roe is overruled, the odds are it's never coming back because it is a controversial decision that is not clearly grounded in the specific language of the Constitution. In addition, the Republican president and Congress might well pass a federal law to outlaw abortion, and a more anti-abortion Supreme Court might uphold it.

I think we are in fact very unlikely in the end to get either Snowe's and Collins' support for the health care reform bill and they will support a fillibuster. The Republican Senate leadership will get their votes by promising them important committee chair positions if the Republicans retake the Senate in 2010, which the defeat of health care reform will make more likely. Republicans always do what is in their self interest, and Snowe's and Collins' self interest is to become big players in a Republican Senate majority starting in 2011.

President Obama said eloquently, It is time for change. History shows lofty words of the Constitution, its Amendments and the Supreme Court are all right to say, but one must remember that sometimes they bear no fruit. Abortion may be legal but it is still wrong. When laws permitted slavery, they were wrong. When laws permitted child labor, they were wrong. When laws permitted a lack of suffrage to women, they were wrong. When laws allowed domestic violence they were wrong. Each of those wrongs had to be addressed through strong and forceful means. I, for one, will not stand aside and allow the laws of this land to run rampant over the rights of innocent unborn people. When Hilter used power to kill innocent Jewish and Slavic people, it was wrong. Abortion is wrong. American people do not want to fund abortion as part of healthcare. It is time to put personal preferences and voting histories aside and vote to adopt the Nelson-Hatch language as part of healthcare reform. Michigan needs leadership. Michigan needs change.