House Republicans

Hensarling Stays On Official GOP Script In Weekly Address And Steers Clear Of Mentioning Social Security (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | February 6, 2010, 6:00AM

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)

A few days ago Rep. Jeb Hensarling was defending a Republican budget plan that offered stark cuts to Social Security and Medicare to end the deficit, but this morning leadership offered him up as the GOP poster boy for a far less specific spending blueprint.

"Serious fiscal responsibility requires more than just tinkering around the margins," Hensarling (R-TX) said in the Republican weekly address.

"Republicans have proposed adopting strict budget caps that limit federal spending on an annual basis and are enforceable by the President," he said. "These caps were a critical plank in the fiscally-responsible budget alternative Republicans proposed last year and yet they are noticeably absent from the President's budget."

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Budget

Pelosi Slams GOP For Reviving Call To Privatize Social Security, Medicare

Brian Beutler | February 5, 2010, 6:22PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Add Congress' most powerful Democrat to the list of very senior members who are whipping Republicans for having a long-term plan to privatize and slash entitlements.

"Anybody who wants to see the difference between Democrats and Republicans need only look at their budgets," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at the DNC today. "The Republican budget provides tax breaks for the wealthy, it ends Medicare as we know it, and privatizes Social Security. Here they go again. Rehashing the same failed Bush policies."

She's referring to the far-reaching roadmap, introduced recently by the House Republicans' top budget guy--Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)--for addressing the country's long-term fiscal challenges...

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Scott Lee Cohen

Illinois Dems Quinn, Durbin, Giannoulias (And More): Cohen Should Withdraw

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 6:18PM

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) and Scott Lee Cohen (D), candidate for Lt. Governor

More and more Democrats in Illinois have been calling upon Scott Lee Cohen, the Dem nominee for lieutenant governor, to drop out of the race in the wake of news coverage of past steroid use, allegations of domestic violence, and other scandals. Gov. Pat Quinn's own position has now become even firmer that Cohen should leave the race, his spokesperson tells TPM.

"The governor has made it very clear that he thinks it is best for the party, and more important for the state of Illinois, for Mr. Cohen to step aside," said Quinn spokesperson Elizabeth Austin.

Yesterday, Quinn strongly suggested that Cohen should withdraw from the race, but had also left some slight leeway for Cohen to explain his side of the story. Since then, further details had emerged from Cohen's divorce files, including alleged attempted sexual assault, repeated infidelity, and other damaging information. Cohen gave an interview last night on local television, which apparently did not help his case.

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IL-GOV

IL-GOV Republican Primary Still Not Over, Dillard Not Conceding

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 5:33PM

IL-Gov Republican candidates Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady

The Republican nomination for governor of Illinois is still up in the air, with one of the GOP candidates announcing today that he isn't conceding the race.

"With over 750-thousand votes cast, this is a .0005 of a percent difference. So, in a race this close, it's important that every vote count," said state Sen. Kirk Dillard, who currently trails state Sen. Bill Brady by a very thin margin. Brady and Dillard each have 20% of the vote, in a field of seven candidates. Brady's current lead over over Dillard is just 420 votes.

Dillard said that there are almost 5,000 provisional ballots that haven't been counted, 1,000 uncounted absentee ballots, and up to 5,000 absentee ballots that could still be in the mail. "I wish we could resolve this today," Dillard said. "But the reality is that it takes time for election authorities to do their job and for these votes to be counted."

Blanket holds

Dems Slam Shelby Blanket Hold: 'There Are Empty Chairs At The Pentagon' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 4:43PM

The Democratic National Committee has pulled together a new Web ad going after Sen. Richard Shelby's blanket hold on President Obama's nominees, saying that Republicans are holding national security hostage.

Top DNC operatives tell TPMDC they are considering some television ad concepts and want to really press the point that Republicans should pay the price for holding up nominees in the Defense Department and Homeland Security.

"We are going to make sure they pay it," the operative said.

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Grover Norquist

Grover Norquist's Group Totally (Hearts) Ryan's Social Security-Slashing Budget

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 3:58PM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform

A real split is developing between fiscal conservative groups and Congressional Republicans as Rep. Paul Ryan's budget "roadmap" gets more attention.

GOP leaders in the House have said again and again that even though Ryan is their chief budget writer and he'll be the one to offer their alternative spending plan this spring, what he produced showing massive Social Security and Medicare cuts is not their official plan.

But we keep talking to conservatives who are asking in earnest, Why not?

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Budget

Begala: Democrats Should Make The GOP Vote On Their Own Budget Proposals

Rachel Slajda | February 5, 2010, 3:48PM

Former advisor to President Bill Clinton Paul Begala

Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-WI) "roadmap" budget plan -- which calls for balancing the budget in 50 years by effectively privatizing Social Security and Medicare -- could become an excellent political tool for the Democrats, says former Clinton adviser Paul Begala.

Begala, in an interview today with TPM, said Democrats should force the GOP to bring their ideas into the public eye.

"Why don't we put Mr. Ryan's budget up to a vote?" he said. "Make them vote on it."

Democrats, he argued, should stop calling Republicans the "party of no."

"They have ideas, and lots of them. And their ideas ruin the country," Begala said.

What the Democrats have to do, he said, is make the 2010 elections a choice between Democratic and Republican ideas, instead of a referendum on just the Dems. (A point Chuck Todd made earlier this week.) The way to do it, he said, is to highlight those GOP ideas.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 3:47PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner.

• CBS, Face The Nation: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

• CNN, State Of The Union: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

• Fox News Sunday: Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Deputy National Security Adviser John Brennan, former Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Polls

Poll: A Third Of Americans Feel Favorably About Tea Parties, Even More Are Undecided

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 3:43PM

A crowd gathers at a tea party

A new CNN poll measures American opinion on the Tea Party movement, finding that the answer for now is...well, mostly undecided.

The poll of American adults found that 33% had a favorable opinion of the Tea Parties, compared to 26% unfavorable. Republicans responded favorably by a ratio of three to one, while Democrats felt unfavorably by two to one. Independents were fairly close to the top-lines, at 35% favorable and 24% unfavorable. The real leader, however, was the undecided vote, broken down in two categories: 24% who never heard of it, and 16% who have no opinion.

"The Tea Party movement is a blank slate to many Americans, which is not surprising for a political movement that is only about a year old," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Not surprisingly, opinion breaks along partisan and ideological lines."

Scott Lee Cohen

Durbin: Cohen Should Quit As Illinois Lt. Gov. Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 2:25PM

Scott Lee Cohen, IL Candidate for Lt. Gov and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) has called upon Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in his home state of Illinois, to withdraw from the race.

Cohen has faced controversy since he narrowly won a six-way primary on Tuesday, over allegations involving alleged attempted sexual assault of his then-wife, past domestic violence against a girlfriend, steroid use, and being behind on child support payments. Cohen has admitted to steroid use. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who is now the party's nominee for U.S. Senate, has already called for Cohen to drop out.

"He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he's about to go through," Durbin said in an interview with WBBM-AM radio, the local CBS affiliate. "I'm afraid the disclosures so far really disqualify him."

Richard Shelby

White House Uses Official Blog To Lash Out At Shelby

Rachel Slajda | February 5, 2010, 2:07PM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and President Obama

The administration today used the official White House blog to lash out at Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who, as we reported today, has put a hold on President Obama's nominations in order to get two big projects done in his home state.

"This is just the latest example of this kind opposition for opposition's sake that the President talked about earlier this week," wrote White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer. "This strategy of obstruction is preventing qualified people from doing their jobs on behalf of the American people and it's preventing real work from getting done in Washington."

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Scott Lee Cohen

Former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III: If Cohen Were My Running Mate, I Would Go Independent

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 2:02PM

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL), Former Sen. Aldai Stevenson III (D-IL), and IL Lt. Gov. candidate Scott Lee Cohen (D)

Former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III (D-IL), who ran for governor as an independent in 1986 after he was saddled with an unacceptable running mate for lieutenant governor in the primaries, just told TPMDC that if he were in the situation that Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) is today, with controversial candidate for lieutenant governor Scott Lee Cohen, he would do the same thing -- quit the Democratic ticket, and run as an independent.

"Well, you know I've been asked that over and over again, and I just don't want to be presumptuous by advising the governor what to do," said Stevenson, when asked if Quinn should run as an independent. "I'm saying what I did. I could not run in good conscience with someone unqualified as my running mate for lieutenant governor, so I resigned and ran as an independent."

When asked if he would personally run as an independent rather than run alongside Cohen, Stevenson answered: "Absolutely. No question about it."

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GOP Shadow Budget

Dems To Force GOP Vote On Anti-Social Security Privatization Resolution

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 2:02PM

House Education Chairman George Miller (D-CA), Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Democratic Caucus Chairman John B. Larson (D-CT), House Appropriations Chairman David R. Obey (D-WI), DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) (obscured),and Rep. Charles B. Rangel (D-NY)

House Democrats are going to force their Republican colleagues to vote on a resolution opposing the privatization of Social Security. The move shows Democrats are putting their full political muscle into painting the Republicans as enemies of Social Security and using the chief GOP budget writer Rep. Paul Ryan's plan to cut benefits as evidence.

Rep. John Larson (D-CT) and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-CA) this afternoon introduced the resolution which "expresses the will of House Democrats to preserve Social Security and reaffirms our commitment to working in a bipartisan way to make common sense adjustments to strengthen the program for generations to come."

It's the sort of tough political vote that Democrats have rarely pushed Republicans on since winning back control of Congress in 2006, and similar to resolutions the GOP constantly forced the Democrats to take positions on when they were in power.

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Harry Reid

Dems Decry Shelby's Senate Hostage-Taking--But Did They Do The Same?

Brian Beutler | February 5, 2010, 1:49PM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and President Obama

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) has decided to place a hold on all pending executive branch nominees, and that has all of Washington asking: Who does such a thing?

A Senate leadership aide even says: "I am not aware of that ever happening."

But it has happened. And perhaps the most recent perpetrator was none other than Harry Reid, before he became Senate Majority Leader.

"Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., is increasing pressure to have one of his aides confirmed to a top post at the federal agency that will decide the Yucca Mountain Project," reads a June 2004 article in the Las Vegas Review Journal.

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Virginia Republican Party

Virginia GOP: Tell Cap-And-Trade Dems How Much 'Global Warming' You Get This Weekend! (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 12:53PM

The Virginia Republican Party is out with a whopper Web video today mocking the incoming massive snowstorm as "global warming."

Showing images of cars stuck in giant snow banks, ominous weather reports and a ruler showing more than a foot of the white fluffy stuff, the Virginia GOP attempts to exploit the storm for political gain.

The ad, called "12 inches of Global Warming" is specifically targeting Reps. Rick Boucher (D-VA) and Tom Perriello (D-VA) in advance of the fall midterm elections.

Boucher and Perriello "think global warming is a serious problem for Virginia" the ad claims, "so serious" they voted to "kill jobs" by backing the House cap-and-trade bill this summer.

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American Action Network

Holtz-Eakin: New Right-Wing Think Tank Staffing Up, Looking For Office Space

Justin Elliott | February 5, 2010, 12:20PM

Former McCain campaign advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin

A leader of the American Action Network says the Republican "think-and-do-tank" launching this month hopes to have a physical space in Washington very soon, and is working on fundraising and staffing up.

That's according to Doug Holtz-Eakin, the former CBO director and McCain campaign adviser who will lead the policy shop of American Action Network.

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GOP Shadow Budget

Leadership Avoids Ryan Budget As Political Minefield, But Key GOPers Say Go For It!

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 11:40AM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Republican leadership for days has been backing away from Rep. Paul Ryan's "Roadmap" budget - which slashes Social Security and Medicare to end the deficit - but key GOP groups say it's both bold and brave.

"It's commendable and very true to his conservative beliefs," former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin told TPMDC in an interview.

"I think it's fabulous, it's a great template for everyone that's not just relying on smoke and mirrors," said Holtz-Eakin, who was an adviser to Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.

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Mitch McConnell

McConnell's Office Questions Shelby Story, Then Kicks 'Hold' Questions Back To Him

Christina Bellantoni | February 5, 2010, 11:25AM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).

Given all the accusations of Senate Republican obstructionism, we checked in with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell about Sen. Richard Shelby's blanket holds on President Obama's nominees.

A McConnell spokesman at first questioned the legitimacy of the Shelby story, asking if the Alabama senator had confirmed the holds.

When told about Shelby's statement detailing why he's holding the nominees, the spokesman then declined to comment.

"Sen. Shelby's office will comment on his holds," the spokesman said.

The White House is not amused.

Richard Shelby

Shelby's Office Confirms Holds, Lashes Out At Obama

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 5, 2010, 11:25AM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Sen. Richard Shelby's (R-AL) office has confirmed to TPMDC the reports that Shelby has placed a hold on President Obama's nominees over a pair of government programs set to be based in Alabama. He did not confirm that Shelby has taken the rare step of blocking all of Obama's nominees, as was reported yesterday.

"Sen. Shelby has placed holds on several pending nominees due to unaddressed national security concerns," Shelby spokesperson Jonathan Graffeo said in a statement. "Among his concerns" are the progress on multi-billion dollar defense contract that would see planes built in Mobile, AL and Obama's decision to scrap a $45 million FBI improvised explosive device lab Shelby secured an earmark for in 2008.

Graffeo lashed out at Obama's decision to cancel the lab, which he says "impedes" the ability of the military and intelligence agencies in their efforts to fight terrorism.

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Barack Obama

Obama: Congress Might Drop The Ball On Health Care--But Either Way, Let's Shelve It For Several Weeks

Brian Beutler | February 5, 2010, 10:55AM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), President Obama, and Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

At a DNC fundraiser last night, President Obama had an interesting exchange with a Democratic organizer about health care reform, wherein he appeared to suggest that Congress could drop the ball and fail to pass a bill--and that voters should judge them harshly if they do.

"[I]t may be that -- you know, if Congress decides -- if Congress decides we're not going to do it, even after all the facts are laid out, all the options are clear, then the American people can make a judgment as to whether this Congress has done the right thing for them or not," Obama said.

Curious, because in the same appearance, Obama came closer than he's yet come to laying out a process and a timeline for getting the bill done (I'll give you a hint, not for several weeks).

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Richard Shelby

Gibbs: Shelby Holds Are 'Silliness'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 5, 2010, 10:46AM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs called out Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) this morning over his rare blanket hold on all of President Obama's nominees in the Senate. Reports from this morning's press gaggle are coming in, and they show a White House that is flabbergasted by Shelby today.

From DailyCaller White House reporter Jon Ward's Twitter feed from inside the gaggle:

"Gibbs on Shelby holds: "I fear there won't [b]e a greater example of silliness throughout the entire year of 2010."

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Scott Lee Cohen

Illinois Dem Senate Nominee Giannoulias Calls On Lt. Gov. Candidate Scott Lee Cohen To Withdraw

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 10:41AM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D) and IL Lt. Gov. candidate Scott Lee Cohen (D)

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate this year, has called upon Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, to withdraw from the race.

Cohen has faced controversy since he narrowly won a six-way primary on Tuesday, over allegations involving past domestic violence, steroid use and being behind on child support payments. Cohen has admitted to steroid use.

"These revelations are deeply disturbing and there is no place in society let alone public office for this type of behavior," Giannoulias said in a statement.

Scott Lee Cohen

Scott Lee Cohen: 'I Don't Believe That I'm An Embarrassment To The Ticket' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | February 5, 2010, 10:28AM

IL candidate for Lt. Gov. Scott Lee Cohen (D)

Scott Lee Cohen, the embattled Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Illinois, appeared for an interview Thursday on Chicago Tonight, seeking to answer questions about allegations of domestic violence, drug abuse and other damaging issues.

Cohen has faced significant controversy -- including a call from Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn to potentially quit the race -- since he narrowly won a six-way Democratic primary on Tuesday. In 2005, he was arrested for allegedly threatening his girlfriend at the time by putting a knife to her throat and throwing her against a wall. The case was dropped after the woman, who had previously been arrested for prostitution and later pleaded guilty, failed to show up to court. In addition, his wife said in his divorce case that he abused steroids and attempted to sexually assault her. Cohen has admitted to past steroid use.

"You know, all this happened at a rough time in my life, and you know, I understand it looks bad," said Cohen, who was accompanied in the interview by his ex-wife Debra York-Cohen. "And that's why I tried so hard to put it out, the day I announced I was running. I have answered every question that was asked me by the media, in a full, complete, and honest way. Again, I tried so hard to put this out the day I announced so it wouldn't come to this. Nobody wanted to listen."

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Richard Shelby

Behind The Shelby Holds: He Thinks Obama's White House Is Biased Against Alabama

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 5, 2010, 10:28AM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and President Obama

We already told you about the extraordinary "blanket hold" Sen. Richard Shelby has reportedly placed on all of President Obama's nominations to the Senate yesterday. Shelby's D.C. office hasn't returned our phone calls and emails looking for comment, yet, but digging around on the web a bit this morning, we found a nugget that could provide some insight into what's going on. According to Shelby, the Obama administration is biased against Alabama.

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Blanche Lincoln

Extreme Makeover! Facing Daunting Electoral Odds, Lincoln Swerves Right

Brian Beutler | February 5, 2010, 10:23AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) hasn't been what some might call a "model Democrat" this Congress. Behind every vote she casts and word she utters in public is a simple--and for her terrifying--political reality. Up for reelection in an extremely unfriendly electoral climate, and deeply unpopular among her constituents, Lincoln has been guarding her right flank for a year, putting her at odds with the bulk of her colleagues on issue after issue, and requiring considerable arm-twisting (and concessions) from leadership to win her support for major initiatives, including health care reform back in December.

But in just the past few weeks, Lincoln's MO has changed. When health care reform was the issue driving national politics, and Democrats were in "must do" mode, Lincoln laid low. Almost comically so--dodging reporters via privileged exits, and through the Capitol's labyrinthine hallways. Now, with Washington preparing for what could be a watershed mid-term election in November, Lincoln has found her voice...and it's an increasingly conservative one!

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Richard Shelby

Report: Shelby Blocks All Obama Nominations In The Senate Over AL Earmarks

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 4, 2010, 9:19PM

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) has put an extraordinary "blanket hold" on at least 70 nominations President Obama has sent to the Senate, according to multiple reports this evening. The hold means no nominations can move forward unless Senate Democrats can secure a 60-member cloture vote to break it, or until Shelby lifts the hold.

"While holds are frequent," CongressDaily's Dan Friedman and Megan Scully report (sub. req.), "Senate aides said a blanket hold represents a far more aggressive use of the power than is normal." The magazine reported aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid were the source of the news about Shelby's blanket hold.

The Mobile Press-Register picked up the story early this afternoon. The paper confirmed Reid's account of the hold, and reported that a Shelby spokesperson "did not immediately respond to phone and e-mail messages seeking confirmation of the senator's action or his reason for doing so."

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Scott Lee Cohen

Illinois Dem Lt. Gov. Nominee: 'I Have No Intention Of Stepping Down'

Eric Kleefeld | February 4, 2010, 6:23PM

IL candidate for Lt. Gov. Scott Lee Cohen (D)

Scott Lee Cohen, a businessman who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor of Illinois in Tuesday's primary, is insisting that he will not drop out of the race. Cohen has come under fire for allegations of domestic violence, involving a 2005 arrest for allegedly holding a knife to a then-girlfriend's throat.

"I have no intention of stepping down or stepping aside," Cohen said in a statement. "When the facts come to light, after my ex-wife and ex-girlfriend speak, the people of Illinois can decide, and I will listen to them directly. I am asking my ex-wife and ex-girlfriend to come forward and to talk with the media.

"There are questions, and I will provide all answers honestly and openly. I only ask for time to do the interviews. 2005 was a difficult time in my life. I was going through a divorce, and I started running with a fast group. I was in a tumultuous relationship with the woman I was dating. We had a fight, but I never touched her. She called the police, however, she never came to court, and the charges were dismissed. I realized this relationship was not healthy, I ended it, and we parted amicably."

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Scott Brown

Scott Brown Sworn In As 41st GOP Senator

Rachel Slajda | February 4, 2010, 5:47PM

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) was sworn into the U.S. Senate this afternoon by Vice President Biden.

Brown becomes the 41st Republican in the Senate, ending the Democrats' filibuster-proof supermajority.

He was sworn in earlier than expected after sending a letter to the Massachusetts governor yesterday demanding the election be certified right away. The results were certified this morning.

At a press conference after the swearing-in, Brown told reporters he looks forward to working with the Democrats, but he did not specify which issues he wanted to work with them on.

He also denied rumors today that he rushed his move to Washington in order to block the confirmation of Craig Becker, a former union lawyer, to the National Labor Relations Board.

"I haven't spoken to the leadership since the last time I was here," he said.

CA-SEN

Fiorina Camp: Expect Ads Even More Shocking Than Demon Sheep

Rachel Slajda | February 4, 2010, 5:28PM

A still from Fiorina's "FCINO" web video.

You loved Demon Sheep. So did the Carly Fiorina campaign -- it says today that, due the overwhelming success of yesterday's web ad, the voting public can expect even more gems from its web video department.

The world "can expect to see equally if not more shocking web-based ads or videos," a Fiorina spokeswoman tells the Daily Beast's Benjy Sarlin. (Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, is running for Senate from California.)

"It's been touted as the most genius ad ever all the way down to the worst, but no matter what, people are talking about it and it generates views," said the spokeswoman, Julie Soderlund, saying the video has been a "great success."

If you haven't seen the video, watch:

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NY-SEN

Conservatives Hope Larry Kudlow Will Take On Schumer In NY

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 4, 2010, 5:19PM

Larry Kudlow

If you listen carefully, you can hear it: the a low rumble of excitement at Republican gatherings and executive suites across New York. A growing number of conservatives say that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) is vulnerable this year, and they know the man that can beat him -- CNBC host and supply-side economics uebermensch Larry Kudlow.

Kudlow has expressed some interest in mounting a bid. One of the men who's urging him to run, self-proclaimed "Wall St. guy" and Kudlow friend John Lakian, told me today that Kudlow is at "the 70 or 80 or 90% tipping point" toward throwing his hat in the ring. According to Lakian, one of the men behind the Draft Kudlow movement on Facebook and the web, the time is right for a man with Kudlow's extensive Wall St. connections to make a run for office.

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Budget

Dem Leadership Rips 'Republican Plan' To Privatize, Slash Medicare, Social Security

Brian Beutler | February 4, 2010, 4:58PM

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

You thought Republicans were going to be able to wiggle away from their historic support for privatizing Medicare and Social Security? Think again.

Leading Democrats aren't letting the GOP put much distance between themselves and a new, long-term budget proposal written by their top budget guy, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

"That's their budget plan," Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)--chair of the House Democrats' reelection committee--told me in a brief interview. "He's the ranking Republican member on the Budget Committee. That is their so-called roadmap. And it's a roadmap right into the economic ditch that we got ourselves to begin with.... Put it this way. For seniors on Medicare, it's a dead end."

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Pat Quinn

Quinn: Lt. Gov. Candidate Cohen Should Consider Withdrawing

Eric Kleefeld | February 4, 2010, 3:13PM

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) and Scott Lee Cohen (D), candidate for Lt. Governor

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) has now declared that the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, businessman Scott Lee Cohen, should consider withdrawing from the race in the wake of publicity surrounding a 2005 arrest for domestic violence.

Cohen allegedly threatened his girlfriend at the time by putting a knife to her throat and throwing her against a wall. The case was dropped after the woman, who had previously been arrested for prostitution and later pleaded guilty, failed to show up to court.

"I do believe that the person who's had these matters brought up about himself should at least have a chance to talk about them to the public, but if his explanations are unsatisfactory, and so far they have been, then he has to do the appropriate thing," said Quinn. He added: "Our country and our state are bigger than ourselves. The Democratic Party is bigger than me or any other candidate. If there are matters that are raised about your conduct that disqualify you from running in a proper way for an election in the fall, then the only appropriate thing is to step aside. And I think that's what we're looking at here."

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Harry Reid

Reid To Obama On Nominees: Little Help Here, Buddy?

Brian Beutler | February 4, 2010, 2:06PM

President Barack Obama talks with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Oval Office.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had a hard enough time getting President Obama's executive nominees confirmed before Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) won his special election. Now, with Democrats' supermajority erased, and Republicans happy to filibuster just about everything, Reid has a message for the White House: If I can't work with these people, you can get it done, too.

Speaking on the Senate floor today, Reid outlined a way Obama can get his nominees situated, even if Republicans oppose them unanimously.

"There isn't enough time in the world--Senate world at least--to move cloture on every one of these. We have spent all week--all this week--on two people," Reid said.

"I have been someone...who has tried hard not to do--have the President do recess appointments. But what alternative do we have?" Reid asked rhetorically.

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2010 elections

Obama To Campaign For Sen. Bennet In CO This Month

Christina Bellantoni | February 4, 2010, 1:43PM

President Obama and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

Sen. Michael Bennet's campaign will get a presidential boost later this month, with a visit from President Obama on tap for Feb. 18.

Bennet (D-CO) is facing a tough primary challenge and the seat is a top target for Republicans. He was appointed to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, who stepped down to become Obama's Secretary of the Interior.

Craig Hughes, Bennet's campaign manager, sent supporters an email today announcing the Obama visit as a "special day."

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Budget

Boehner Distances Republicans From Ryan Budget...But He Can't Name A Single Objection

Brian Beutler and Christina Bellantoni | February 4, 2010, 1:36PM

Reps. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and John Boehner (R-OH)

House Republicans are at pains to point out that a far-reaching budget roadmap unveiled by their top budget guy, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), isn't their budget, but when asked today at a press conference what about Ryan's budget he disagreed with, Minority Leader John Boehner couldn't name anything.

"Off the top of my head, I couldn't tell you," Boehner said.

Despite the apparent lack of substantive disagreement, though, Boehner wants to keep the Ryan plan from sticking to the GOP.

"Paul Ryan, who's the ranking member on our budget committee, has done an awful lot of work in putting together his roadmap," Boehner said. "But it's his. And I know the Democrats are trying to say that it's the Republican leadership. But they know that's not the case."

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IL-GOV

Hynes Concedes IL-GOV Dem Primary To Quinn

Eric Kleefeld | February 4, 2010, 11:44AM

IL Comptroller Dan Hynes (D) and IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D)

Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes, who was in a photo-finish Democratic gubernatorial primary against incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, has now conceded the race to Quinn, officially clearing the way for Quinn to fight the general election against the Republican nominee -- a matter that is itself yet to be determined since both parties' primaries yielded close results.

The winner was not immediately clear on election night. Quinn declared victory with a lead of about 7,000 votes, though Hynes did not yet concede. The most up to date results have Quinn winning by 8,090 votes, out of a total of 912,662 votes.

At a Hynes press event (streamed on the ABC affiliate in Chicago), Hynes spokesman Matt McGrath announced that Hynes had called Quinn about a half an hour earlier. Hynes then took to the podium. "Well, the people have spoken, and the votes have been counted. And I'm here to report that we rose up, but fell just a little short," said Hynes. "And if democracy means anything, it means that the campaign with the most votes wins. We did the right thing, we made sure all the votes were counted, and now we know for sure that it wasn't us. And now let's do the right thing again."

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Democrats

Another Filibuster? Senate Republicans Mulling A Filibuster Of Jobs Bill

Brian Beutler | February 4, 2010, 10:43AM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Senate Democrats want to vote on the first installment of a jobs package as early as Monday, amping up the pressure on Republicans to get aboard. But for the moment, they're not biting.

"We'll have a vote on a jobs bill on Monday," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said at a press conference today.

There's just one wrinkle: According to the Senate's top vote counter, there is currently no Republican support for the proposal Democrats are putting forth--and with Scott Brown to be seated today as the 41st Republican Senator, they'll need at least one member of the minority to come aboard.

"You need two to tango. And you need Republicans for bipartisanship," said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL).

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Deficit

Poll: Republicans Prefer Having A Deficit With Tax Cuts, Over A Balanced Budget And Higher Taxes

Eric Kleefeld | February 4, 2010, 10:12AM

Tea Party in Washington, D.C.

A new Rasmussen poll supplies a very interesting data point in the ongoing debate about the budget deficit: As it turns out, Republican voters would prefer having a deficit if it meant they can get more tax cuts, instead of raising taxes in order to balance the budget.

The national poll of likely voters asked: "Would you rather see a balanced budget with higher taxes or a budget deficit with tax cuts?" A 41% plurality would rather have budget deficit with tax cuts, with 36% calling for higher taxes and a balanced budget. The internals of the poll show Republicans favoring deficits and tax cuts.

"The partisan differences on the questions are notable," says the pollster's analysis. "While 50% of Republicans would rather see a budget deficit with tax cuts, a plurality (46%) of Democrats favor the opposite approach - a balanced budget with higher taxes. Voters not affiliated with either party are evenly divided on the question."

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House Republicans

Slash and Privatize: How House GOP's Shadow Budget Eliminates Deficit ... In About 50 Years

Christina Bellantoni | February 4, 2010, 9:26AM

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)

President Obama has read it, and the detailed plan is the only thing the Republicans have so far, but it seems like Rep. Paul Ryan is out there on his own with a budget blueprint that cuts the deficit by slashing Social Security and Medicare benefits and by creating private accounts and a voucher system.

The talk about Social Security changes that would essentially amount to privatization of the entitlement plan raised eyebrows earlier this week - and even prompted some in the GOP to back away - but it's right there in black-and-white in Ryan's formal budget plan released last week.

The official line from House Republican leadership is that Ryan's budget is not the GOP alternative. Leadership aides pointed TPMDC to last year's far less specific budget proposal and stressed their plan will be presented during floor debate that is likely to happen this spring. Ryan, the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, will write that plan too.

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IL-SEN

Public Poll Clashes With Kirk Internal Numbers in IL-Sen

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 4, 2010, 8:59AM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new public poll shows the freshly-minted nominees for Senate in Illinois are running a tight race as the general election campaign begins in earnest. Yesterday, GOP nominee Mark Kirk released an internal poll showing him with a double-digit lead over Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias. But today's public poll from Rasmussen shows the race is much closer than that, with Kirk leading Giannoulias 46-40 with a margin of error of 4.5%.

Internal polls are often released by candidates in an attempt to influence the storyline of a race. Yesterday, the Kirk campaign pushed its internal numbers on reporters yesterday in the hours after Kirk swept a crowded field to win his party's nomination. While today's poll still shows him ahead of Giannoulias in the race for President Obama's former Senate seat, the six-point lead suggests the race is basically up for grabs.

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CA-SEN

CA-SEN Candidate Fiorina Unleashes Demon Sheep Web Video

Rachel Slajda | February 3, 2010, 4:25PM

A still from Fiorina's "FCINO" web video.

Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard who is running for Senate from California, released a web video today claiming her Republican primary opponent, former Rep. Tom Campbell, is a "fiscal conservative in name only."

In other words, a wolf in sheep's clothing.

The video begins with a pastoral scene of sheep grazing and the pleasant voice of a female narrator describing fiscal conservatives as people "we admire."

Then, one of the sheep -- the Campbell sheep -- rises on a pedestal. The sky turns dark. Lightning strikes. The music becomes ominous. Campbell Sheep falls, tumbling from the pedestal as a deep male voice says, "But one way to fall."

The video then bashes Campbell on deficits, budgets, tax increases and the like. But it returns to the sheep pasture for the climax. Just watch extra closely at the 2:26 mark. And then at 2:38. There are no words:

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John Boehner

Republicans Trying To Raise Money Off Question Time Performance

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 3, 2010, 3:50PM

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)

House Republican leaders are calling on their supporters to send money after last week's extraordinary Q&A session with President Obama. Their recollection of the meeting, as described in the fundraising letters? We stuck it to Obama, so give us some money.

In a fundraising email sent out to the NRCC list today, House Minority Leader John Boehner argued the GOP came out on top in the session "[Obama] finally acknowledged that we'd been offering solutions -- Democrats just haven't listened," Boehner wrote. "You see, we're not just fighting to put the brakes on their jobs-killing agenda - we're showing what a new Republican-led Congress would do differently."

Reports today indicate that Boehner's not the only Republican to see the Q&A as a fundraising opportunity. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) -- the man whose take on the budget Obama called "factually inaccurate" during the session -- said his performance at the Q&A merits some campaign donations, too.

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IL-SEN

Mark Kirk Internal Poll Claims Lead In Illinois Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | February 3, 2010, 2:29PM

Illinois Senate candidates Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), the newly-nominated Republican candidate for President Obama's former Senate seat in Illinois, is out with a new internal poll claiming that he already has a strong lead over the Democratic nominee, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

The numbers: Kirk 47%, Giannoulias 35%. The poll was conducted February 1 and 2, before the primary. Independent polling has generally shown Giannoulias ahead of Kirk.

As David Freddosso points out: "This poll is an outlier, and it's Kirk's poll, so take it with a grain of salt. But it should put a fresh scare into the White House."

Chris Coons

Democrat Chris Coons Running For Delaware Senate Seat

Eric Kleefeld | February 3, 2010, 1:55PM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D-DE)

Senate Democrats now officially have a candidate for the Senate seat formerly held by Vice President Joe Biden, to run against long-time Republican Rep. Mike Castle. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons declared today that he is in the race.

After Biden resigned in order to become vice president, his former aide Ted Kaufman was appointed as a caretaker who would serve in the Senate and not run for election in 2010. Much attention was focused on state Attorney General Beau Biden, one of the vice president's sons, as a potential candidate. However, Beau Biden announced last week that he would not run.

On paper, Coons would appear to be a major candidate who could make the race. New Castle County is home to about 60% of the state's population, so he does begin with a clear geographic base. He will nevertheless have his work cut out for him, as a recent Rasmussen poll put Castle ahead of Coons by 56%-27%.

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IL-GOV

The Illinois Primary: Who Won, Who Lost -- And What's Next In Super-Close Gubernatorial Primaries

Eric Kleefeld | February 3, 2010, 1:07PM

IL Comptroller Dan Hynes (D) and IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D)

The Illinois primary is now over. And with 99 percent of the precincts reporting, we have a variety of results to share with you. The primary has seen not one but two super-close statewide races -- in the party primaries for the exact same office, no less -- with both the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries still not settled. So what comes next?

The primaries for President Obama's former Senate seat saw clear, unambiguous wins by the two nominees. For the Democrats, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias beat former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman by 39%-34%. On the Republican side, Rep. Mark Kirk beat attorney Patrick Hughes by 57%-19%. This will be a top-tier Senate contest this fall.

In House-race primaries, the most notable result was in the 14th Congressional District. The seat was held from 1987 until 2007 by Republican Dennis Hastert, who served for eight years as Speaker of the House. After Republicans lost the majority in 2006, Hastert resigned during his next term, and the seat was picked up by Democrat Bill Foster in a March 2008 special election. One of Hastert's sons, Ethan Hastert, was running for the GOP nomination this year -- and lost by 55%-45% against state Sen. Randy Hultgren.

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Democrats

The Democrats' Politics Problem: It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid!

Brian Beutler | February 3, 2010, 12:34PM

Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

As hard as you might try, you'll probably never forget the words "I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it." That awkward phrase was supposed to explain why he'd voted against funding the Iraq war (Kerry wanted to pay for the effort by raising taxes on the wealthy--but Republicans didn't want to pay for it at all). But instead it haunted Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) for months until the day he lost the 2004 election.

Fast forward to 2009, when Republicans did much the same--voting against war funding under Obama after years of supporting it under Bush -- and yet they're poised for a landslide victory in the 2010 midterms. Why can't Democrats make stuff like this stick? That's a question with many answers. And with the economy in the pits, Democrats have done themselves few favors by not learning them.

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Tea Party Nation

Tennessee Dems Plan Happy Hour To Counter Palin At Tea Party Convention

Christina Bellantoni | February 3, 2010, 11:13AM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

The tea partiers are coming to Nashville tomorrow for their first official convention, and the state Democratic Party is holding a counter happy hour where they'll serve "anything but tea."

As we've been reporting, former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) is the keynote speaker at tomorrow's Tea Party Nation convention at Opryland. The Tennessee Democratic Party is trying to get Democrats to show up at the Cabana Restaurant in Nashville. (See the actual invite here.)

"This event is about bringing people together to celebrate our hope for the future," the Dems wrote in an email. The "Anything but tea!" happy hour is free (compared with a $549 banquet ticket for the convention).

Dan Coats

Report: Former GOP Sen. Dan Coats To Seek Comeback Bid Against Evan Bayh

Eric Kleefeld | February 3, 2010, 10:35AM

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and former Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN)

Former Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) will reportedly announce that he is running for the Republican nomination for his old Senate seat, which is currently held by Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, Indiana journalist Brian Howey reports.

Coats was first elected to the House in 1980, and appointed to the Senate in 1989 after Dan Quayle's election to the vice presidency. Coats was then elected in his own right in 1990 and 1992, and then retired in 1998, with Bayh picking up the seat.

Coats is a late entrant to the primary race, with former Rep. John Hostettler, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, and Tea Party activist Richard Behney already in the race. The election is also approaching its filing deadline -- Coats will have to gather at least 4,500 ballot petition signatures, 500 within each of the state's nine House districts, in the next two weeks.

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NY-GOV

Poll: No Problem Of Racial Division In Paterson-Cuomo Primary

Eric Kleefeld | February 3, 2010, 9:41AM

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) and NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D)

The new Quinnipiac poll of New York finds that state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo continues to have a very wide lead over incumbent Gov. David Paterson in a potential Democratic primary match-up. The poll also finds that voters do not believe race would end up being a divisive issue, if such a primary were to occur.

Among registered Democrats, Cuomo leads Paterson by 55%-23% in a primary. The poll also asked: "Some people say that if Andrew Cuomo runs against David Paterson in a Democratic primary for Governor that it would be racially divisive. Do you agree or disagree?" The top-line number was only 14% agree, 80% disagree. Among Democrats it was 15%-78%, among whites it was 13%-79%, and among blacks 22%-73%.

As the pollster's analysis notes, black Democratic voters favor Paterson in such a match-up, by a 42%-34% plurality. At the same time, though, black Dem respondents give Cuomo higher approval numbers for his job as attorney general, at 78%-12%, compared to their 60%-30% approval of Paterson as governor. So although race can often be a third rail in American politics, in this case it doesn't appear that it would end up being all that divisive.

Budget Reconciliation

How And When? Health Care Reform Crawls Through Congress

Brian Beutler | February 3, 2010, 8:59AM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

For the first time since the Massachusetts special election last month, Democratic leaders in Congress have signaled an agreement in principle on a way to finally pass health care reform, despite the loss of their filibuster-breaking 60th vote in the Senate. However, though both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appear to have settled on an overall framework, they have backed off a timeline for reaching a workable solution as they resolve some outstanding procedural issues.

Emerging from a meeting with Pelosi yesterday, Reid acknowledged that the most likely scenario for passing reform is what has come to be known as Plan B: Congress would preemptively pass an amending bill through the 51-vote budget reconciliation process, allowing the House to adopt the Senate bill word for word.

"That seems like a strong possibility," Reid said.

That puts him in agreement with House leaders, who say they can't pass the Senate bill until the reconciliation process is completely wrapped up.

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CA-GOV

Week Of Shenanigans Makes The CA-Gov Race Interesting Again

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 2, 2010, 6:48PM

CA-GOV candidates Meg Whitman (R) and Steve Poizner (R)

The battle of the billionaires in the California Republican gubernatorial primary was turning into a bit of snooze. But suddenly, out of the blue, the race has become replete with racists and calls to the FBI alleging illegal campaign tactics.

Billionaire former tech company executive Steve Poizner has been trailing in the polls to billionaire former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman. Both candidates have more than enough money to pay for a top-notch campaign out of their own pockets. So it was maybe a bit ironic that Poizner held a press conference yesterday to accuse Whitman of, among other things, threatening to leverage her fortune to "destroy him" if he doesn't agree to drop out of the race. Poizner waved an email from celebrity pundit and Whitman adviser Mike Murphy he said proved the plot. He's handed over the evidence to law enforcement. On Tuesday an FBI spokesperson told me, "I'm not touching that" when asked for comment on the situation. That came a day after Murphy wondered in the press if Poizner had literally gone crazy.

We should have known this would happen -- ain't no party like a West Coast party, as a wise man once said.

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J.D. Hayworth

Hayworth Launching GOP Primary Challenge Against McCain On February 15

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 6:47PM

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ).

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) will officially launch his Senate campaign, in which he is challenging 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain in the GOP primary, on February 15.

Hayworth was first elected to Congress in the big Republican year of 1994, and was ultimately defeated in the big Democratic year of 2006. Since then, he's spent time as a right-wing talk radio host in Arizona, and is ready to challenge McCain from the right.

"2010 is the Second Great American Revolution - or if you prefer - the Second American Restoration," Hayworth says on his Web site. "It's people like you who will make it actually happen!"

Rick Perry

Poll: Perry Up 15 Over Hutchison In GOP Primary, Runoff Possible Thanks To Strong Third Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 5:48PM

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

The new Rasmussen poll of Texas finds incumbent Gov. Rick Perry continuing to lead Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, the leader in that race could end up remaining under 50 percent, and thus face a runoff, thanks to significant support for a third candidate.

The numbers: Perry 44%, Hutchison 29%, and Debra Medina, a nurse and conservative activist, at 16%. Two weeks ago, Perry was ahead by 43%-33%-12%. The pollster's analysis points out just how daunting the math is for Hutchison at this point: "Turnout is often difficult to project for primaries. However, for Hutchison to win with the current attitudes, she would need more than 50% of the primary voters to be politically moderate."

Hutchison pointed out recently that this race could be headed to a runoff. At the rate things are going, that could very well happen, which would extend the race from the March 2 primary all the way to the April 13 runoff. A big question is whether Medina can continue to have a high level of support -- and if Hutchison can stop her own political bleeding.

Health Care

Pelosi: No Hope For Public Option At This Time

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2010, 5:23PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

The public option already died once. Today it died again.

House progressives have been trying to use the health care stalemate to revive the public option. Almost 100 have signed a letter urging Congressional leaders to include a public option in a separate bill, which could in theory pass the Senate with a simple majority of votes. If that happened--a big if--it could then be included as part of comprehensive legislation, securing progressives a major victory. But on a conference call today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put a second set of nails in the public option's coffin, saying it would not be part of any grand bargain to push ahead with health reform. But in so doing, she took a veiled swipe at the White House for not standing enthusiastically behind the proposal.

"The Senate never supported the public option," Pelosi said.

There was talk that there would be 51 votes for it, but it never passed on the floor of the Senate. It did pass in the House and, of course, I think it would be the way to go. But it isn't the way that the Senate went. And so I think that what you might see coming out of some reconciliation would be those areas of agreement that all three--the White House, the Senate and the House--had already agreed to...more than two weeks ago.

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Health Care

Pelosi: No Obstacle To Senate Acting First On Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2010, 4:54PM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says there are no procedural hurdles facing the Senate if it wants to take the necessary steps to make sure health care reform passes.

Pelosi has insisted for some time now that the Senate health care bill can not pass the House unamended, but that she can probably round up the votes if the Senate and the House both pass a sidecar bill making a number of pre-emptive changes to it.

"Don't even ask us to consider passing the Senate bill until the other legislation has passed both houses so that we're sure that it has happened, and that we know that what we would be voting for would be as effected by a reconciliation bill or whatever parliamentary initiative they have at their disposal," Pelosi said on a conference call this afternoon.

Senate aides have complained that her plan presents them with a big parliamentary difficulty: they don't know if they can pass legislation amending a bill that hasn't been signed into law yet.

Pelosi says that's simply not true.

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Jobs

Dorgan: Baucus Will Have Say Over Part Of Jobs Package

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2010, 3:51PM

Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT)

Democrats leading the Senate jobs push will likely unveil their initial package of legislation Thursday, but it will not include a key section, which will likely be adopted separately after action by the Senate Finance Committee, headed by Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT).

"Senator Durbin and I will be disclosing the jobs bill that we put together...will probably do something to disclose that on Thursday," said Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND).

"Our jobs bill...contains the things that we think represent a consensus in our caucus of what we can do to stimulate the creation of additional jobs," Dorgan added.

But the package will not include a tax credit aimed at stimulating employment.

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Social Security

Privatizing Social Security Unlikely To Appear In GOP Campaign Mailers

Christina Bellantoni | February 2, 2010, 3:50PM

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Though two prominent Republicans have offered ideas for privatizing Social Security, the official GOP line in 2010 won't include that plan.

After Rep. Jeb Hensarling talked about wanting to privatize Social Security last night on MSNBC's "Hardball," TPMDC checked in with Republican aides on Capitol Hill.

Most of the GOP aides were reluctant to even entertain the question of whether Republicans will formally campaign on the idea, suggesting that it's a political third rail they would rather avoid. Indeed, the Democrats already jumped on Hensarling's remarks to suggest the GOP is "dusting off the old playbook."

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Climate Change

Obama Acknowledges Senate Unlikely To Adopt Pollution Limits

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2010, 3:39PM

President Barack Obama

It's been apparent for quite some time that the Senate is unlikely to follow the House's lead in calling for the creation of an economy-wide market in greenhouse gas emissions. But today, at a town hall meeting in Nashua, NH, President Obama seemed, however reluctantly, to acknowledge the political reality.

"The most controversial aspects of the energy debate that we've been having: The House passed an energy bill, and people complained about, well, there's this cap and trade thing, and you just mentioned, you know, let's do the fun stuff before we do the hard stuff," Obama told former New Hampshire Rep. Dick Swett.

The only thing I would say about it is this. We may be able to separate these things out, and it-it's conceivable that that's where the Senate ends up, but the concept of incentivizing clean energy so that it's the cheaper more effective kind of energy is one that is proven to work and is actually a market-based approach.

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Health Care

TV Ad Spending On Health Care Slows From $1M Per Day To $1M In A Week

Christina Bellantoni | February 2, 2010, 2:46PM

Meet Patriot Baby

The interest groups who invested millions in gripping television ads to sway lawmakers to support or oppose health care reform seem to have gotten the message their money can be better spent elsewhere.

Analysts who track political advertising told TPMDC the spending has dramatically decreased since Scott Brown won a special Senate election in Massachusetts to become the 41st Republican vote.

One month ago, interest groups on both sides of the health care debate spent more than $1 million per day on television ads, with more than 390,000 ads airing in all of 2009 through today. Now, that spending has dropped off to just "barely" $1 million per week, said Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis group.

Tracey said there was $210 million spent on health care ads in all of 2009 through January. Most of that was in the summer and fall of 2009, and only $12 million was spent in January.

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Democrats

Fool Me Twice? Dems Say Jobs Agenda Won't Get Bogged Down Like Health Care

Brian Beutler | February 2, 2010, 1:21PM

Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Senate Democrats have pivoted, at times clumsily, from a universal focus on health care reform to a universal focus on jobs legislation. But is jobs destined to get bogged down by the same legislative morass that ultimately stymied health care? Democrats say not on their watch.

Yesterday, Politico reported that Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) had told Democratic leadership that he'd like to take a crack at some elements of the Democrats' burgeoning job proposal in his Finance Committee. The news gave progressives, and rank and file Democrats flashbacks to the Baucus-led Gang of Six negotiations on health care reform, which dragged on for months and ultimately failed to secure any Republican votes.

But numerous Senate aides said today that the jobs push is--and will be--different. They say the sense of urgency is greater, and that leadership is busily figuring out how to enact a meaningful jobs package as expeditiously as possible.

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Polls

Kos/R2K Poll: Republican Voters Are Extremists

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 1:05PM

At a tea party in Philadelphia

Markos Moulitsas has formally unveiled his new Research 2000 poll of Republicans nationwide, setting out to demonstrate the GOP's party base are extremists with whom the Democrats can't possibly try to work.

Kos declares that this poll shows that bipartisanship, or compromise with the Republicans, are not an option: "Ultimately, these results explain why it is impossible for elected Republicans to work with Democrats to improve our country. Their base are conspiracy mongers who don't believe Obama was born in the United States, that he is the second coming of Lenin, and that he is racist against white people. They already want to impeach him despite the glaringly obvious lack of high crimes or misdemeanors. If any Republican strays and decides to do the right thing and try to work in a bipartisan fashion, they suffer primaries and attacks."

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2010 elections

Poll: Dems In Trouble Whether They Pass Health Care Or Not

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 12:11PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

A new national survey from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests that Democrats are now between a rock and a hard place when it comes to health care reform. Whether they pass it or not, they would still trail the Republicans in a generic ballot test -- though it's possible that passing the bill could be the better path.

In an initial generic ballot, the Republicans led with 43% to the Democrats' 40%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. The poll then asked: "If the Democrats don't pass their health care bill will you vote Democratic or Republican for Congress this fall?" The result here is Republicans 43%, Democrats 38%.

A follow-up question asked: "If the Democrats pass their health care bill will you vote Democratic or Republican for Congress this fall?" The result here becomes Republicans 45%, Democrats 41%. The margins among Republican and Democratic base voters remain nearly the same in the two scenarios, with independents shifting from 40%-26% Republican in the no-bill scenario to 42%-34% in the bill-passing hypothetical.

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IL-GOV

Adam Andrzejewski Is Tea Partiers' Illinois Dreamboat

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 2, 2010, 11:50AM

IL-GOV candidate Adam Andrezejewski (R)

Every cloud has a silver lining. And for tea partiers in Illinois smarting over their failure to mount a strong challenge to Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the Senate race, that silver lining goes by the name Adam Andrzejewski. He's running competitively in the crowded GOP gubernatorial primary, and as voters go to the polls today, conservatives are predicting an upset victory for the man who Erik Erickson calls "a Rubio" and Rush Limbaugh labeled "the Scott Brown of this contest."

As Christina reports this morning, conservatives appear to have struck out against Kirk. But, as a myriad of conservative thought leaders wrote yesterday, Andrzejewski has given tea partiers a new reason to get excited about Primary Day in Illinois.

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Blanche Lincoln

Poll: Blanche Lincoln Trails GOP Opponents -- And So Do Other Possible Dem Candidates

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 11:05AM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

A new survey of Arkansas by Public Policy Polling (D) reaffirms that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in serious danger this year. Furthermore, it also says that Democrats would have a tough time even if they replaced her with a new candidate.

Republican Rep. John Boozman, who is poised to officially enter the race soon, leads Lincoln by 56%-33%. A Republican candidate already in the race, state Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker, is ahead of Lincoln by 50%-35%.

Other Democrats were tested in place of Blanche Lincoln, and would still have a tough race. Boozman edges out Gov. Mike Beebe by 44%-43%, leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by 51%-36%, and leads Rep. Mike Ross by 48%-37%. Baker ties Ross at 39%-39%, trails Beebe by 46%-38%, and leads Clark by 45%-39%.

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Michele Bachmann

Bachmann: If You Criticize Government Health Care, They Won't Treat You (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 10:54AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann spoke at an event on health care in Rochester, Minnesota, where she warned that with government involvement in health care, critics of the system can have their own health care revoked.

Bachmann said she spoke to somebody who lived under Japan's health care system, who communicated to her a horrible thing "that people don't know" about: "In Japan, people have stopped voicing their opinion on health care...He said it's because they know that they would get on a list, and they wouldn't get health care. They wouldn't get in, they wouldn't get seen, and so people are afraid, they're afraid to speak back to government. They're afraid to say anything. Is that what we want for our future? That takes us to gangster government, at that point."

Bachmann continued to warn against the specter of socialized medicine: "We aren't going to give up. We're not going to quit fighting because a government takeover of health care is the crown jewel of socialism, and I will fight it until my last breath."

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Sue Lowden

Nevada GOP Senate Candidate Sue Lowden Up With First Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | February 2, 2010, 10:03AM

Sue Lowden (R), NV Sen candidate

Sue Lowden, a former Nevada state Senator and state GOP chairwoman, has her first ad up in her campaign for the Republican nomination to run against Senate Majority leader Harry Reid.

The ad does not ever mention Reid. It instead focuses on Lowden herself, in order to introduce her to the electorate in her Republican primary against former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian and former state Rep. Sharron Angle.

"She worked through college, earned a degree, became a teacher," the announcer says. "Sue Lowden went on to become an award-winning journalist, job-creating businesswoman, conservative state Senator, fighting for lower taxes, less spending."

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Polls

Poll: Crist Has Long, Dark Road Ahead

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 2, 2010, 9:38AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R)

A new poll from a GOP pollster confirms yesterday's striking poll from Rasmussen showing Marco Rubio opening up a big lead in the GOP Senate primary in Florida. But in even worse news for Charlie Crist, the new poll shows Rubio has room to move even further ahead while Crist appears to be running out of options. The pollster told the Miami Herald that the poll shows the best path for Crist would be to drop out of the race with Rubio and run as an independent. But even then, Crist would face an uphill climb against Rubio.

The Senate questions were added by pollster Tony Fabrizio to a poll he was conducting for a private client, according to the Herald. The results show Rubio leading Crist 44-30, with 25% undecided. Behind those numbers, though, are signs that Rubio's surge is growing while Crist may have peaked.

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2010 elections

The Tea Party Dog That Didn't Bite?

Christina Bellantoni | February 2, 2010, 8:35AM

IL-SEN candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), Patrick Hughes (R), and Judge Don Lowery (R)

Are Republicans really in danger of being selectively picked off by tea party candidates?

Moderate GOP candidates across the country are closely watching today's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, where a centrist Rep. Mark Kirk is poised to beat out two conservatives who have the backing of the tea party movement.

And if Kirk pulls it out tonight as he's expected to, a sigh of relief will be heard from Lynchburg, Va. to Seattle.

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Budget

Orszag Insists He's No Peacock

Christina Bellantoni | February 1, 2010, 5:18PM

CBO Director Peter Orszag

I asked Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag this afternoon about criticism from the left of President Obama's proposed spending freeze.

Specifically, I asked his reaction to Brian's report about the Center for American Progress suggesting that discretionary spending freezes were used by "deficit peacocks."

CAP's tax and budget expert Michael Linden suggested that those who "claim that we could get the budget back to sustainability if we only cut out earmarks, or say that the solution is to simply freeze discretionary spending, are just peddling fiscal snake oil."

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Polls

Poll: Republicans Think Obama Is A Socialist, And Palin More Qualified To Be President

Eric Kleefeld | February 1, 2010, 3:58PM

At a tea party in Philadelphia

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, conducted among 2,000 self-identified Republican respondents nationwide, gives an interesting peek into the psyche of the minority party's base.

Kos has not yet released the full numbers, but here's some early info on the poll that he has posted on his Twitter account:

• 39% of Republicans want President Obama to be impeached.

• 63% think Obama is a socialist.

• Only 42% believe Obama was born in the United States.

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Polls

Obama's Approval Ratings On The Rise After SOTU

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 1, 2010, 3:51PM

President Obama delivers his first State of the Union address.

The Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll is registering its highest level of strong support for President Obama in months. At the same time, the number of poll respondents saying they "strongly disapprove" of the job Obama is doing has dropped to it's lowest level since Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts Jan. 19. According to the pollster, the shift came after Obama's State of the Union address last week.

The latest numbers from Rasmussen's rolling poll of 1500 likely voters shows 35% "strongly approve" of the job Obama is doing as president. The last time the number was that high was in June. The day before Obama's State of the Union, it was 27%. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 39% strongly disapprove of Obama's performance in the latest results. That's down from 42% before Obama's address to the nation.

Obama's overall approval is on the rise in Rasmussen's poll as well. For the last three days, Obama's approval rating has hovered around 50%. It had fallen to 44% after Brown was elected. Today's approval/disapproval split was 50/49.

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Judicial nominees

DeMint's Hold On Obama Nominee Putting D.C. Court In 'Dire Situation'

Christina Bellantoni | February 1, 2010, 3:45PM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

D.C. Superior Court officials have warned that Sen. Jim DeMint's hold on President Obama's nominee for that bench could harm the court's ability to hear cases in the nation's capitol.

DeMint (R-SC) has said he is holding up Marisa Demeo's nomination to serve on the D.C. Superior Court because she has a "history of very leftist activism," the Legal Times (sub. req.) reported today.

"There are just a number of things that don't look like a fair and balanced approach that you'd like in a judge," DeMint told the Legal Times.

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2010 elections

Americans Don't Know Much About The Tea Party Movement, But They Like It Anyway

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 1, 2010, 1:51PM

At a tea party in Kerrville, Texas

Americans don't claim to be experts on the Tea Party movement, but that hasn't stopped them from getting behind what they think the movement is about. That's according to a new poll from Republican pollster McLaughlin conducted for National Review.

About 65% of likely voters said they know just "some" or "not too much" about the Tea Party when asked. Nevertheless, the Tea Party seems to be winning the message war, capturing the voice of populist anger in the country -- the majority of respondents expressed support for the goals of the movement and the people in it.

Though the numbers would seem to bode well for the GOP, which is more closely aligned with Tea Party than the Democrats are, the poll could actually cause heartburn for Republicans hoping for big victories this fall. When lined up against a Democrat and a Republican on a generic congressional ballot, 8% said they'd pull the lever for a third, Tea Party candidate enough to give the Democrats the win in a three-way race. The Democrats won the hypothetical matchup 31-26-8, with 35% undecided.

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Barack Obama

Obama To Visit Indonesia, Australia And Guam Next Month

Christina Bellantoni | February 1, 2010, 1:28PM

Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters this afternoon that President Obama will make several stops in the Pacific in mid-to-late March.

Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama will stop in Indonesia and Australia. He will stop and visit with U.S. service members in Guam while en route, Gibbs said.

Gibbs noted that Indonesia is the most populous Muslim country and said the president will announce a comprehensive partnership between the two nations during the trip. Obama considered stopping there during his November nearly two-week visit through Asia, but the White House opted to wait in part due to last summer's attacks in Jakarta.

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PA-SEN

Toomey Out-Raises Specter In Fourth Quarter

Eric Kleefeld | February 1, 2010, 1:05PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) was out-raised significantly in the last quarter by Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey, though the incumbent still has a lead in cash on hand.

Between October and December of 2009, Specter raised $1.15 million, compared to Toomey raising $1.67 million. However, Specter's cash on hand is $8.66 million, way ahead of Toomey's $2.8 million. Specter will have to spend some of that money in the Democratic primary, however, which would potentially narrow cash gap.

Specter and Toomey have a long history with each other, much of it negative, going back to when Toomey challenged Specter in the 2004 Republican primary, and just barely lost it in a 51%-49% race. Specter switched from the Republicans to the Democrats last year, in large part to avoid a likely loss in a GOP primary rematch with Toomey. He still faces a challenge in the Democratic primary from Rep. Joe Sestak, which could become costly.

PA-SEN

Specter To Sestak: Imma Let You Finish ...

Rachel Slajda | February 1, 2010, 12:26PM

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)

At a Pennsylvania Progressive forum this Saturday, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) were supposed to be doing separate Q&As, one after the other.

But Specter apparently jumped the gun and climbed onstage while Sestak was giving his closing remarks, and a moderator asked him to get off the stage.

Watch, care of PCN:

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Marco Rubio

Poll: Rubio Has Double-Digit Lead In Florida GOP Senate Primary

Eric Kleefeld | February 1, 2010, 12:24PM

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)

The new Rasmussen poll of Florida has former state House Speaker Marco Rubio taking a big lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for Senate.

The numbers: Rubio 49%, Crist 37%, with a ±5% margin of error. Back in December, Rasmussen had the two of them tied at 43% each. A Quinnipiac poll from last week gave Rubio a narrower lead of 47%-44%, but this also showed clear movement in Rubio's favor compared to the previous numbers.

Rasmussen's analysis points directly to the likely cause of Crist's problems: "Crist's fortunes appear to be tied in part to national unhappiness over President Obama and his policies. Many conservatives began rebelling against Crist when he became one of the few Republican governors to embrace Obama's $787-billion economic stimulus plan last year. The national Republican party establishment endorsed Crist early on, but a number of prominent national party conservatives have since announced their support for Rubio."

Ben Nelson

Dems Say Sen. Ben Nelson's Deal Was Setback For Health Care

Christina Bellantoni | February 1, 2010, 11:58AM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Democrats are privately admitting the deal they made with Sen. Ben Nelson on Medicaid funding for Nebraska was a major factor in souring the America people on the health care reform bill.

Senate leadership inked a deal in December to win over Nelson (D-NE), allowing him to insert pro-life language in the measure and to secure federal funding for the cost of any Medicaid expansion in what has now been dubbed the "Cornhusker kickback."

It's been the target of lawsuits and scorn from both the right and the left, and leaders in both chambers believe it ultimately will be stripped from the final measure, whenever one surfaces.

Instead of considering more dealmaking to get a final health care bill passed, Democratic sources privately acknowledge that Nelson's compromise did more harm than good. Several sources said it tops a list of problems that have hurt the health care process.

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Rand Paul

Sarah Palin Endorses Rand Paul In Kentucky Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | February 1, 2010, 11:24AM

Sarah Palin and KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul, a conservative activist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has just put out a press release officially announcing the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Paul also announced that his campaign has received a "generous contribution" from Palin's PAC.

"Governor Palin is providing tremendous leadership as the Tea Party movement and constitutional conservatives strive to take our country back," Paul said in the press release. "Sarah Palin is a giant in American politics. I am proud to receive her support."

Paul is running in the Republican primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is widely regarded to be the party establishment's favored candidate in the race.

Questiontime

White House Jumps On Unexpected Boost - Touts Obama's Q&A With GOP

Christina Bellantoni | February 1, 2010, 9:10AM

The State of the Union was supposed to be the event the American people talked about this weekend at the dinner table, but when President Obama's question-and-answer session with House Republicans caught fire on the Internet, the White House went with it.

Aides weren't prepared for the mid-afternoon talk to generate so much buzz - and weren't even sure the full session would be televised - but even Obama critics of late praised him for answering every question. Democrats especially liked seeing Obama, in some cases, calling Republicans on the carpet for misleading voters about his policies.

Obama also surprised Republicans by revealing that he'd read their bills.

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