TPMDC
Democrat Earl Pomeroy Won't Run For North Dakota Senate Seat
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND).
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Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) will not run for the open Senate seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan, RealClearPolitics reports -- a serious blow to Dems in their efforts to keep this seat.
A Democratic source has also confirmed the news to TPMDC.
Third-term Republican Gov. John Hoeven is set to run for the seat, and starts out the race as a heavy favorite. In addition to Pomeroy, who would have been the strongest possible Democratic candidate, the party has also been courting liberal talk show host Ed Schultz, who launched his broadcasting career in North Dakota.
It's been an interesting last 24 hours for Senate Democrats. Yesterday, they were more likely than not to re-elect Byron Dorgan in North Dakota (Hoeven was not in the race, and there was no top-tier opponent) and lose Chris Dodd in Connecticut. Now both seats are open, and as it currently stands they are likely to lose in North Dakota and keep Connecticut.
Late Update: DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) confirmed the news about Pomeroy to Greg Sargent.
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felix
January 6, 2010 3:20 PM
Big whoop. No one is going to beat Hoeven. Dorgan knows that. Pomeroy knows that.
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terje
January 6, 2010 3:26 PM
I think Heidi Heitkamp (or a number of other local ND figures) would be a stronger nominee than Ed Schultz
She was elected statewide numerous times in North Dakota (Attorney General and Tax Commissioner). She ran against Hoeven for Governor in 2000 and lost 55-45% -- a remarkable achievement since she was diagnosed with breast cancer in the middle of the campaign and that disrupted her election chances. She has remained in North Dakota, active in civic affairs, law and business. She is the kind of populist upper mid-west Democrat who gets elected in North Dakota.
While Ed Schultz is well known to a national liberal audience, he has never run for or been elected to office in North Dakota. While he has some local identification from his days as a sports broadcaster there, he doesn't have the deep electoral/political roots and on-going community ties that would be helpful in putting together an statewide campaign against a well-known popular governor.
And Ed's strongest political asset would also be he greatest weakness -- his combativeness, his willingness to say outrageous things - while they would guarantee a lively campaign, it also has huge potential to rub voters the wrong way and to become lightening rods for negative attention. (To say nothing of fodder for negative ads featuring out of context stuff coming out of his mouth). A Hoeven/Schultz race could become cast as a race between a popular relatively moderate governor vs. a brash media-star interloper with a penchant for over-the-top statements.
I'd love to see Ed in the Senate, but from a purely pragmatic point of view, I suspect that there are potentially stronger candidates out there -- whether it is Heidi Heitkamp, or her brother Joel Heitkamp (a former ND state legislator and popular local broadcaster who took over from Ed Schultz in local ND radio/TV), or Roger Johnson (former ND Ag Commissioner and current National Farmers Union president) .
Hopefully the Democratic-NPL (Non-Partisan League-- the name of the local ND party, kind of like the DFL in Minnesota) will settle on a strong candidate quickly -- and won't make the mistake of conceding the open seat to Hoeven without a real fight.
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ericf
January 6, 2010 4:10 PM in reply to terje
Off on a tangent, the NPL was active in Minnesota when it was at its height in North Dakota, though it was never as strong as in North Dakota. I always wondered that such a supposedly conservative state produced the NPL.
Back on subject, the obvious comparison for Schultz is Al Franken. A key difference between them is Franken was talking about his senate run at least a couple years before he declared --- it was why he moved his show to Minnesota allegedly (he was also an empty-nester with family still here, so only he knows). He declared for 2008 in February 2007, which gave him almost a year longer than Schultz would have to build a campaign. He used that time for retail campaigning, so a lot of people who weren't part of his radio audience got to see him in person and get an impression to counter whatever impression that had to begin with. I wonder if there's time for that even in a state the size of North Dakota. Since most voters are leery of talk radio hosts, which might explain their general lack of electoral success, I wonder if Schultz could win without having time to travel the state and campaign at a retail level.
And then Franken impressed people with how wonky he was. I don't know Schultz well enough to know how well he can pull that off.
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terje
January 7, 2010 9:59 AM in reply to ericf
The NPL was a real voice of agrarian populism -- in a rural agricultural state like North Dakota the resentment of big agribusiness and out of state financial interests was always a powerful political force (especially during agricultural downturns). Coupled with some ethnic voting patterns (Swedes, Russians and Catholic Germans tended to vote Democratic/NPL, while Norwegians and Protestant Germans tended to be Republican), it provided the political base that elected folks like Burdick and continues to this day with Dorgan and Conrad.
I agree with you that Franken had some significant advantages over Schultz in considering a possible Senate bid -- longer planning and preparation, greater policy depth, and much deeper roots in the state. Bottom line, Ed Schultz is no Al Franken -- if he wants to run for office in North Dakota someday, he needs to do a lot more work to get ready for a run in some future year, not 2010.
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roxsteady
January 6, 2010 3:29 PM
At least the CT seat will stay with the Dems. Hopefully Ed Shultz will talk to some of the people he knows in North Dakota who might be a good fit. He could then bring him onto his show to get some media attention.
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terje
January 6, 2010 3:30 PM
I think Heidi Heitkamp (or a number of other local ND figures) would be a stronger nominee than Ed Schultz
She was elected statewide numerous times in North Dakota (Attorney General and Tax Commissioner). She ran against Hoeven for Governor in 2000 and lost 55-45% -- a remarkable achievement since she was diagnosed with breast cancer in the middle of the campaign and that disrupted her election chances. She has remained in North Dakota, active in civic affairs, law and business. She is the kind of populist upper mid-west Democrat who gets elected in North Dakota.
While Ed Schultz is well known to a national liberal audience, he has never run for or been elected to office in North Dakota. While he has some local identification from his days as a sports broadcaster there, he doesn't have the deep electoral/political roots and on-going community ties that would be helpful in putting together an statewide campaign against a well-known popular governor.
And Ed's strongest political asset would also be he greatest weakness -- his combativeness, his willingness to say outrageous things - while they would guarantee a lively campaign, it also has huge potential to rub voters the wrong way and to become lightening rods for negative attention. (To say nothing of fodder for negative ads featuring out of context stuff coming out of his mouth). A Hoeven/Schultz race could become cast as a race between a popular relatively moderate governor vs. a brash media-star interloper with a penchant for over-the-top statements.
I'd love to see Ed in the Senate, but from a purely pragmatic point of view, I suspect that there are potentially stronger candidates out there -- whether it is Heidi Heitkamp, or her brother Joel Heitkamp (a former ND state legislator and popular local broadcaster who took over from Ed Schultz in local ND radio/TV), or Roger Johnson (former ND Ag Commissioner and current National Farmers Union president) .
Hopefully the Democratic-NPL (Non-Partisan League-- the name of the local ND party, kind of like the DFL in Minnesota) will settle on a strong candidate quickly -- and won't make the mistake of conceding the open seat to Hoeven without a real fight.
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ogliberal
January 6, 2010 3:35 PM
I'd prefer Pomerory remain in what will likely be a relatively safe seat in 2010 then to try his luck at a Senate seat he'd probably lose. The Dems are going to need every rep they can get in the House in 2010 where losses are probably going to be greater than in the Senate. (at least the Senate has some pickup opps for the Dems...the House, as far as I know, offers one - Cao's seat)
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holyhandgrenaid
January 6, 2010 4:23 PM in reply to ogliberal
Mark Kirk's seat in Illinois, and Mike Castle's in Delaware are pretty likely Dem pickups
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terje
January 7, 2010 9:48 AM in reply to ogliberal
There are many more than Cao's seat as Democratic pick-up opportunities
Several open Republican seats -- Jim Gerlach's in PA, Mark Kirk's in IL, Mike Castle's in DL, Todd Tiahart's in KS, Adam Putnam's in FL, and Harry Brown's in SC.
In terms of other potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents running for re-election against strong Democratic challengers, the list grows larger: Don Young in AK, several seats in CA (Bono, Calvert, Lungren, Bilbray, Campbell), Bill Young in FL, Bachmann in MN, Terry in NE, Schmidt and Tiberi in OH, Dent in PA, Wilson in SC, Sessions in TX, Reichart in WA, and probably a few others I can't remember off the top of my head.
While in a bad Democratic year few of these challenges would be successful, it is far too early in the election cycle to be claiming that there is only one Democratic pick-up opportunity in the House.
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