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MA-SEN Race: A Fight To The Finish

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Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Senate candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA), and President Bill Clinton.

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We've hit crunch time. With just a week to go until the special Senate election in Massachusetts, top Democratic Party leaders are descending on the state in an effort to help Martha Coakley pull out the win. And, both sides are raising and spending massive amounts of money in the final push to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Massachusetts is getting a mini-stimulus this week, with capital flowing rapidly into the state's economy. Yesterday, of course, Republican Scott Brown conducted a money-bomb fundraiser, claiming to have brought in $1,303,302.50 in one day. Today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased $567,000 in ad time for the Boston and Springfield markets. Massachusetts Democrats have already spent $288,000 for a race that seemed like a lock just a few days ago.

Massachusetts should be an easy walk for the Democrats. But over the last couple of days, the polls have tightened. According to the latest Rassmusen poll, Brown has pulled to within two points of Coakley, within the margin of error of ±3%. The Democrats have moved into crisis mode, deploying such heavy-weights as former President Bill Clinton and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). Clinton will headline a rally for Coakley in Boston this Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

Democrats have a reason to be freaking out. If Brown wins, he would be the 41st Republican, giving the minority party the ability to block bills from passing against even 59 unanimous members of the Democratic caucus. And Brown has made it clear in his campaign that he would vote to block the health care bill. This would leave Democrats with the only remaining options being to have the House pass the Senate version from December, to somehow find a Republican to bargain with (not likely), or simply fail at the whole venture.

Meanwhile, as Greg Sargent reports, the Democratic National Committee sent a memo to top donors warning that the race is "very tight," based on internal polling. The DNC is making an "urgent" call for help, Sargent adds.

And as Greg also reports, Coakley herself expressed a lot of worry to donors on a private conference call, over Brown's surge in the polls: "It's a little frightening how much traction he's been able to get so quickly." Coakley also asked donors to send more money her way so the campaign could buy more television adds, saying "It's astounding how expensive this is," according to Sargent. "We can't stress enough how urgent it is. We need $400,000 in additional TV, $325,000 in getting out the vote mailings, and $80,000 in robocalls."

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine was also on the call and said party leaders were "cautiously optimistic."

Comments (16) | Join the Conversation!

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January 12, 2010 7:03 PM   

Coakley was a crummy candidate, but hopefully the national dems are realizing that their "please the middle" keeps your supporters disinterested while keeping the opposition riled up to the same level if the Dems went far left.

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January 12, 2010 7:06 PM    in reply to Walter Mitty

Leftie Teabaggery

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January 12, 2010 8:35 PM    in reply to JohnMcCSF

Why don't you just scream "Heretic!" and be done with it?

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January 12, 2010 9:51 PM    in reply to Walter Mitty

If your argument is true about the Dems needing to go hard left, why didn't Howard Dean win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004? If your argument is true, why has Dennis Kucinich been nothing more than a congressman whom many consider a crackpot?

You all need to understand something - THIS IS NOT A LIBERAL COUNTRY!!! At best, it's center-left. And more likely it's dead center or center-right. This is certainly the case outside of the major coastal cities and Chicago.

The progressive agenda on things like universal health care that countries like England and what not have accepted for decades is considered unacceptable in most of this country. Changing that culture and mindset is possible, but it's going to take a lot of time. Right now, running far-left candidates is a sure fire way to scare moderates and independents and send them to the other side, seeking the relative comfort of the devil they know.

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January 13, 2010 12:05 AM    in reply to Walter Mitty

Perhaps you haven't noticed Coakley has been running as a VERY LEFT candidate.

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January 12, 2010 7:04 PM   

Another bad sign..perhaps a key indicator

Coakley/DSCC released an internal poll yesterday showing Coakley +14 (Jan 8-10)

Been my experience that candidates who release internal polls are in candidates in trouble

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January 12, 2010 7:20 PM   

Coakley is not a very good candidate. That much is clear from Kleefeld's report on last night's debate and on the back and forth commercials between Coakley and Brown

And that is about all you can say because that is all there is to it....

From Nate Silver on the Rasmussen Poll:


According to the poll's internals, right now about 8 percent of the electorate both (a) favors health care reform, and (b) has not brought into Coakley's column. This includes 5 percent of the electorate which favors health care but is planning to vote for Scott Brown, 2 percent for the independent candidate, and 1 percent who favor health care who are undecided.
In addition, about 11 percent of the electorate approve of Barack Obama but are not planning to vote for Coakley.
If this were just about turnout, I would feel relatively safe about Coakley's position. The Democratic establishment has, somewhat belatedly, woken up to the closeness of the race, and polls like these will wake voters up too. And the Democrats have an experienced GOTV team on hand, with veterans from both the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns.
But if the Rasmussen numbers are right, there's also a chance that Coakley could lose even with a less-than-worse-case turnout scenario. Although I sometimes have concerns about the tightness of Rasmussen's likely voter screens, the fact is that an electorate which gives a 57 percent approval rating to Barack Obama is one that they ought to be reasonably contented with on election day.

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January 12, 2010 7:33 PM   

Clinton & Kerry? In other words, the same old lying creepy corrupt politics-as-usual crowd? Coakley has thin lips & short hair. She cannot be trusted.

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January 12, 2010 7:54 PM    in reply to Sailormarlowe

GTFOOH

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January 12, 2010 8:18 PM    in reply to Sailormarlowe

Glad you share my feelings on Mitch McConnell then.

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January 12, 2010 8:26 PM   


With only a week to go, supporters should be wondering whether or not Kerry can actually finish an endorsement speech before the polls close.

TheWeekinRebuke.com

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January 12, 2010 9:51 PM   

When the party is realy dead... Send in the Clowns

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January 12, 2010 11:12 PM   

Coakley reminds me of Geraldine Ferraro and Brown looks like Richard Gere.

Congressional Dems better stop fooling around on HCR and get something done BEFORE February.

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January 12, 2010 11:50 PM   

John Kerry is a big gun? To who?

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January 13, 2010 8:40 AM    in reply to destor23

LOL, I guess he's the biggest gun they got.

On second thought, this is TPM trying hard to imitate HuffPo, so it's all good.

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