TPMDC
New Poll Gives Dem Coakley Big Lead In MA-SEN Special Election
MA AG Martha Coakley
Share
Send to a friend!
Th new University of New Hampshire poll, commissioned by the Boston Globe, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley a big lead in the January 19 spacial election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.
The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 35%, and independent libertarian Joe Kennedy at 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. When undecideds were pushed, Coakley's lead became 53%-36%, with Kennedy's numbers staying the same. This poll contradicts yesterday's survey by Public Policy Polling (D), which gave Republican Scott Brown a one-point edge because of a lack of Democratic enthusiasm.
As the Globe notes: "Although the Senate race electorate is fairly firm in its choices - 61 percent say they have definitely decided whom they will support, and 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate - special elections can remain volatile until the last minute. Turnout is also highly unpredictable in an election that follows a holiday and could be affected by winter weather."
Comments (16) | Join the Conversation!
Leave a comment
Follow us!
Most Popular
TPM Stories Now Surging on Digg.com
TPM Top News
© 2010 TPM Media LLC. All Rights Reserved.
RhodaA
January 10, 2010 10:37 AM
If you want to help out in MA election:
YOU DON'T HAVE TO LIVE IN MA -
Just click:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/obamaforamerica/gGG5lp
or Google Organizing for America and you'll find the link to it quickly. The activity on the OFA website is called: "No matter where you live"
All you have to do is sign up with your email address and zip code and they'll send you a list of MA voters to call. YOU CAN CALL FROM ANYWHERE IN THE US; DON'T HAVE TO LIVE IN MA.
All the people I called were very nice and glad to get the call.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
JohnMcCSF
January 10, 2010 12:55 PM in reply to RhodaA
Yes I plan on calling myself. Got the email yesterday.
If you care about HCR, if you REALLY care, make the calls
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
kevbo
January 10, 2010 8:40 PM in reply to RhodaA
I hates the phoneses, but donated via actblue:
http://www.actblue.com/directory/MA/candidate/fed-senate
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
jb3147
January 10, 2010 11:46 AM
The Boston Globe is a liberal leaning rag that is on the verge of bankruptcy. The poll they quote, by its own admission, is dated (January 2, 2010). The most recent polls show Scott Brown with a slight lead in this historic race. VOTE SCOTT BROWN - THE REAL CANDIDATE FOR CHANGE IN MASSACHUSETTS!
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
vamonticello
January 10, 2010 11:54 AM in reply to jb3147
PPP polls are unreliable, they had the teabagger republican winning in NY-23 by double digits...they were off by 20% AND the teabagger LOST
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
The Emperor
January 10, 2010 1:53 PM in reply to jb3147
Let me help you out. When you go back to doing what you were doing a year ago, that is called "restoration" or "reversion," not "change." Similarly, voting for someone who represents the policy direction of 2008 is not a vote for "change." It's a vote for "restoration."
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
jsdc007
January 12, 2010 7:38 PM in reply to jb3147
You're typing tripe.
The Boston Globe UNH poll was conducted between January 2-6. Bother with the facts.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
inokeah
January 10, 2010 12:26 PM
Old Master Harry will be so happy he has a lighter skined woman that another a .......
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
GayIthacan
January 10, 2010 12:48 PM
PPP - where accuracy in Special Elections goes to die.......
They predicted Hoffman would defeat his opponent by 15 points in NY-23......and that poll was taken the weekend before the election.
Did anyone stop to think that, PPP being a Democratic-based firm, that they deliberately did this to SPARK THE DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN AND GET DEMOCRATS OFF THEIR ASSES AND TO THE VOTING BOOTHS - in other words, to shake up a possibly complacent Democratic voting block?
:D :D
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
JohnMcCSF
January 10, 2010 12:53 PM
Nate Silver's top rated poll in '08
Still I think the Dems have got the message. I got two in fact, DSCC fundraising and an OFA phone bank from home request
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
JohnMcCSF
January 10, 2010 12:56 PM in reply to JohnMcCSF
UNH not PPP
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
GayIthacan
January 10, 2010 1:00 PM in reply to JohnMcCSF
"Nate Silver's top rated poll in '08"
Not for predicting special elections. In that department, they suck.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
inokeah
January 10, 2010 2:01 PM
Massachusetts may have had enough of the Chains and Hoax. You dont need a tea bag to want to be free of oppressive government.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
M Miller
January 10, 2010 2:37 PM
Yeah, that's why we voted for Obama a year ago and will do whatever we can to make sure Brown isn't elected.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
mcc
January 10, 2010 3:21 PM
Doesn't PPP have a sort of Rassmussen-like voter screen right now? I thought I'd heard that claimed somewhere.
It seems like part of the problem is that because Republicans are so polarized right now, a poll which overrepresents Republicans could have wildly different results than a poll with normal makeup (or a poll which underrepresents Republicans). And this isn't necessarily PPP's (or Rassmussen's for that matter) fault, it's just that nobody knows what a "likely voter" looks like anymore.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?
sconset
January 10, 2010 9:55 PM
Additionally, the Boston Herald has a poll indicating that Martha Coakley is up by 13% points over Brown. There is no way in hell I would vote for Brown, especially after the way that Romney goverened and then left office with the state 2 billion dollars in the hole.
You would have to be nuts to hand the keys over to the crew that lead the country into an economic tsunami. I'll skate in hell before I ever vote for a republican again.
Reply | Flag Abuse
Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?