TPMDC

Plan B: Democrats Consider How To Pass Health Care If Coakley Loses

Spread the word. Share this article on Facebook!

Share

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Share

Twitter Fark Reddit Send to a Friend

Send to a friend!

To email:    Your Name:    Your email:

A new way forward on health care is gaining some traction among Democrats, who are preparing for the possibility that Democrat Martha Coakley will lose her bid to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate, costing Democrats their 60th vote, which they'll need to overcome the filibuster.

The House has been preparing to tweak the Senate bill with a package of amendments based on a deal reached last week with organized labor, send it back to the upper chamber for final passage, and claim victory. But Coakley could well lose her race, depriving Democrats of the 60th vote they'd need to overcome a filibuster, and that unthinkable possibility is forcing party leaders to consider a Plan B.

As I noted last week, the House could simply pass the Senate bill unchanged, and Obama could sign reform into law. As recently as last week, a number of high-profile Democrats were saying that would never fly. But many are now suggesting that the House might still pull through, if House members are promised that the deal they agreed to last week will be passed separately--and quickly--through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process.

Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, told the Boston Globe, the idea is "well within the scope of the rules of the Senate," and, indeed, the deal with labor is largely a change to the tax structure of the bill, which is the sort of issue the reconciliation process is designed to address.

But there's another, extremely important X-factor.

Even if progressives can be convinced, in light of the Massachusetts curveball, to hold tight and pass the Senate bill, there's still the question of whether vulnerable members (freshmen, sophomores, red-state Democrats) will react to the loss of Kennedy's seat in sky-Blue Massachusetts with panic, and rush for the exits.

And yet, this is the most appealing option on the table for Democrats. There's almost no chance that the White House or Senate leadership could convince Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) not to filibuster the bill if the House sent it back over with their changes. Dems also don't want to start from scratch, and pass an entirely different bill through the reconciliation process. And all of those long-shot possibilities are much more appealing than defeat.

Discussions between members are ongoing, and nobody thinks moving ahead will be easy. But Democrats aren't willing to accept a Coakley defeat as a death knell for the year long fight over health care. At least not yet.

Comments (85) | Join the Conversation!

Recommend Recommend (3)

January 18, 2010 10:39 AM   

Why stop there? If you're going to amend the thing through reconciliation, why not go for the touchdown (public option, Medicare expansion, etc.) instead of settling for three points? You're inside the friggin' one yard line, for crying out loud!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:57 AM    in reply to Steaming Pile

It's simple, it's brilliant, and it will work with bells on.

Even if progressives can be convinced, in light of the Massachusetts curveball, to hold tight and pass the Senate bill, there's still the question of whether vulnerable members (freshmen, sophomores, red-state Democrats) will react to the loss of Kennedy's seat in sky-Blue Massachusetts with panic, and rush for the exits.


And they will fuck it up.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:09 PM    in reply to Steaming Pile

Agreed. Without having to kowtow to the fine Senator from United Health Group (Lieberman) or the Senator from Mutual of Omaha (Nelson), we can get *real* reform passed. Reconciliation with or without Coakley looks good. I say, "Ship it!"

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:43 PM    in reply to Isepick

Christ, you people couldn't be anymore tone-deaf. A Republican is on the brink of winning in Massachusetts for the first time in almost three decades because he has explicitly campaigned against the health care "reform" and you people still don't see that as a sign that the American public doesn't want these reforms.

Go ahead, try and use reconciliation. Come November 2010, you will be able to fit the Democratic Caucus in the back of a taxi cab.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 2:14 AM    in reply to masanf

With all due respect, your comment exemplifies what the media has madly missed throughout this process - namely that:

Yes, this health care bill is unpopular with Americans.

But why it's unpopular is misinterpreted. It's not unpopular because people want it to be more right wing.

Poll after poll show public support for a public option, but poll after poll show that this bill is unpopular. Put two and two together!

People don't like it because it's not progressive enough! It is a hand out to corporations. People will love expansion of medicare or a public option!

Reconciliation bitches!!!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:14 PM    in reply to Steaming Pile

Absolutely! This may actually work out better if Coakley loses. Of course it will require that magic ingredient that is sorely lacking in the Democratic Party: Intestinal Fortitude

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:17 PM    in reply to Steaming Pile

Thats what Im saying. Go all out and pass the HOUSE BILL. its 5 freaking blue dogs. thats WAY over the dems we need to pass the house version of the bill

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 4:18 PM    in reply to Steaming Pile

BINGO! Coakley getting knocked off may be just what this bill needs. They should have just let the filibuster threat be fulfilled. Just like old LBJ did on his '64 Civil Rights legislation!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 4:32 PM    in reply to JorgeOrwell

Unfortunately, there are many in Congress who would lose a lot of corporate handouts by passing the public "option" and anti-trust reform clauses.

They like this Senate bill just as it is, despite the more 70% public approval on amending both.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 8:10 PM    in reply to JorgeOrwell

Thats what I wanted them to do. Push the strongest bill forward and let 5 democrats decide to filibuster it.

I dont understand these people who the hell voted for Joe Lieberman to be president of the USA.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 8:20 PM    in reply to 3star2nr

That was the DLCers and they lost it for Dems in 2000

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 8:35 PM    in reply to 3star2nr

A to the MEN!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 5:02 PM    in reply to Steaming Pile

The answer is that if the House makes any changes to the Senate bill, then it has to go through reconciliation to come up with a common bill that both the House and Senate can agree to. That action exposes the bill to the filibuster threat of the Senate Republicans. By simply voting to accept the Senate bill, the House vote can be their vote on what would be the agreed to bill of both chambers, and would then be signed by the President.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:39 AM   

Sounds good to me, but I question whether the Democrats have the nerve to face the nonsense the GOP and media will throw. They seem not to understand that a few days or even weeks of an onslaught would fade, and would beat the hell out of abject failure to pass the bill. But I guess we'll see. If Mass. voters to the left of Sarah Palin get their heads out their asses Tuesday, it won't matter. It's no comfort that Scott Brown would be crushed in 2012; we need Plans B, C, D and E if this aging Ken doll actually wins the seat.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:52 AM    in reply to Weeferdog

Sounds good to me, too, this reconciliation plan. So good, in fact, that I'm hoping Brown wins in Ma.
He will be crushed in 2012, and not by Coakley, but by a better Democrat. We do not need Coakley entrenched in that office.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:06 PM    in reply to yellowdogD

You're dreaming - there's no way reconciliation happens. It's gonna be the Senate bill or nothing.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:24 AM    in reply to Weeferdog

Exactly right.

Problem is, virtually every Democrat in both Houses will be hunkering down after Coakley throws this seat away, fearful that they've moved too far to the left and now need to out-con the cons. Rather than believe the narrative before their eyes - that Obama was elected on a "change" mandate - they'll choose to believe the old, familiar MSM narrative that they've once again over-read their mandate.

It's time to remove the pansies, and put some real Progressives in their seats: http://www.actblue.com/page/messagetodemocrats

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:17 PM    in reply to EastWest

One thing: I really wish everyone would stop with the stupid meme about how Coakley "threw it away" (hello, the election hasn't even happened, yet!). Name me ONE other possible Dem candidate in Massachusetts, who ever dreamed that a teabagger would beat the Dem contender for Kennedy's seat.

Coakley's only mistake, in 20-20 hindsight, was not hiring a ruthless political shark, on the order of Karl Rove (who, it is rumored, has his hand currently up Brown's butt crack).

It doesn't matter where I look in media... "far Left" blog or "mainstream" newspaper... all I ever hear about "Martha Coakley" is what a shitty campaign Martha Coakley's run. Paying no mind whatsoever to the truth or falsehood of that... do you maybe think there's anything else the world could have stood to know about the Attorney General of Massachusetts? Because I, a high-information Democrat, don't even know Squat about her. Beyond that. The fact that she's supposedly run a lousy campaign. Surely, she must have accomplished something? Not being a resident of Massachusetts, damned if I know what it was.

The corollary to that is: how many "independents" in "deep blue Massachusetts" know what a flaming right-wing teabagger the guy they're planning to vote for is? How many Democratic women, who are planning to vote for Brown, have heard the remark about shoving a curling iron up Coakley's ass?

It seems to me that whatever her faults or virtues, Ms. Coakley's biggest crime was having a rotten p.r. firm.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:42 PM    in reply to Barry Champlain

That may be, though I spoke to someone this morning that wouldn't be dissuaded by ANY PR firm from her negative opinion of Coakley, which she formed upon actually meeting her.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 21, 2010 1:57 AM    in reply to Barry Champlain

Yes seriously. Coakley made the second worst political gaffe I have ever heard in my life (after Macaca). "What do you want me to do? Stand outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?"

A political science with a supercomputer might compute this as the worst one sentence gaffe mathematically possible in a Massachusetts Senate race.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:22 PM    in reply to Weeferdog

Seconded, about the media. The election is tomorrow, and already I have read "independent" journalists, Republicans and Democrats, all dutifully repeating the conventional wisdom that "the Democrats have misread the public, and gone too fast on health care reform. The voters are rejecting big government..."

Jesus. Might as well have had Frank Luntz' photo and signature on it.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:43 AM   

This seems like the most likely result.

As difficult as it would be to make progressive members of the House swallow this bill, the political consequences of NOT passing health care could be disastrous.

It's one thing to pass an imperfect bill, it's wholly another to have the whole effort scuttled and to have the whole "Dems can't govern" meme start up again were HCR not to pass.

The bill passed with 60 votes, I doubt any argument by Republicans about how un-democratic reconciliation is would pass muster, considering all Obama would have to say in response is that the only thing that passed through the reconciliation process was some budget-related details.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:47 AM   

I don't see them having the votes, or the will, to fix the crappy Senate bill, even if they can get it through the House. "We'll fix it later" is never a good option, because something else always comes up to block that 'later'.

If they hadn't gotten locked into the idea that they need 60 votes to do anything they'd be in a better position right now.
They'd also have a better shot at winning elections: what voters are seeing is a party that can't get its act together under any circumstances.

They asked for a majority, and we gave them one.
They asked for 60 votes in the senate, and we got it for them.
They still can't get anything done.
So why should we give them anything more?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:47 AM   

It would seem to be in the best interest of those in the House who voted for the original bill to pass a bill, even if it is identical to the Senate bill. If they voted for the original House bill, they're already on the hook when it comes to attack ads in the fall. The best way to mitigate those ads is to have a bill already passed which does concrete good things, and allows those members to discuss the things that are in progress.

Assuming it is in those members' best interest, it will be easier to convince them of that and thereby get the bill passed. To be certain, it would be better to have the House changes in the bill, but I don't think it's likely that the bill will falter at this stage.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:50 AM   

Thank heavens - this is the only sane way to pass it at this point. I even think if Coakley wins, this is the way to go.

I don't trust putting the compromise bill up to a 60 person vote bill in the Senate at all. The Senate has done their work for now - let Rahm and Pelosi arm twist their votes into getting this thing through.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:18 PM    in reply to GermanyOrFlorida

Agreed! I think this is the best way to go too. I never thought it was a good idea to put it back in the Senate's hands in the first place. Pass the Senate version and fix it through reconciliation. The Democrats can do this!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:50 AM   

Should this Brown fellow win a close election who is to say he would be seated any more quickly than Franken was in the Minnesota senate race. I'm sure all of the Repub leaders are on the record about taking the time to get these things right and not seating a candidate prematurely. It all goes both ways.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:02 AM    in reply to mattfitz

Not in our idiocratic media culture, it doesn't. The endless Minnesota recount--which, incidentally was a key part of the delaying tactics that made this election so important-was more than three weeks ago, therefore, for the braindead asshats, it never happened.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:49 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Let's not forget that the real delay tactics that may defeat the bill came from the Blue Dogs. I've been reading all over this site that it's all the fault of FDL and a few lefties. But let's put the blame where it belongs - on the Blue Dog caucus, the Liebermans and Nelsons who get themselves on the MSM every Sunday and have the ear of every pundit and who have sold out the party all year long. Of course the irony is that Rahm and the geniuses running the White House political operation seem to have felt that was just swell. Delay the bill for months so you can screw the unions, serve the lobbyists and triangulate to victory. Maybe not.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 3:58 PM    in reply to bluebell

Hey, there'll be plenty of blame for everyone if it fails. And if it does, every person and every group that bears some of the responsibility will be declaring themselves innocent and fully vindicated and that it was all other people who bear some of the responsibility who are to blame.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 7:45 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

True. What is also, true, however, is that some people will IN FACT be to be blame while others will not.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 9:47 AM    in reply to wbgonne

In their own minds, certainly.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:09 AM    in reply to mattfitz

The Franken-Coleman race was very close, decided by only a few hundred votes. Your comparison would only be valid if this election is similarly close.

If Brown wins by a more than 1.5% or so, it's going to be hard to justify delaying his seating more than absolutely necessary. The Democrats can probably get a week and a half or so - it will probably take that long to verify the final totals and get the Certificate of Election issued.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:45 PM    in reply to jdb316

And if he doesn't? You really think the Republicans are going to say "Well, fair is fair!"???

You really think the mainstream media won't crucify the Democrats, in a way they would never have dared crucify Coleman and the GOP?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:55 AM   

The wafflers are already committed. They are more at risk by demoralizing their own supporters by failure than by passing the bill.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:59 AM   

The House could swallow the Senate Bill whole, Obama could sign it, THEN the House could immediately introduce legislation to change it.

That change in the payment structure, such as what was negotiated with the unions, could then be passed through reconciliation in the Senate.

Done.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:02 AM   

Dems plan dictatorship of proletariat.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:17 AM    in reply to Sailormarlowe

When are you haters going to make up your mind? One minute Obama is a Nazi facist, the next minute he's a commie! Which is it?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:27 AM    in reply to celldumceen

Ummmm.... You're assuming LittleSailorTwinkie is educated enough to know the difference. Don't assume.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:43 AM    in reply to Sailormarlowe

I'm sure you said the same thing when the republicans passed all those tax breaks for the wealthy using reconcilliation. If you love your party more than your country, you are not a patriot.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:05 AM   

This will hopefully be a wake-up call for the President. The collaborationist path he has chosen for his administration has put him in a situation he should never have been in, just as with the Liebermann episode a few weeks ago. Obama has done a lousy job of hanging the financial albatross around the necks of the conservatives whose failed theories and policies brought our economy to the edge of the abyss.He has tried to play ball in health care reform with people who are bent on destroying his presidency. And they are. So here he is trying to pull off a nail-biter against a tea bagger in an election which should have been a smackdown instead of a referendum on health care reform. His own popularity is now so low, the question is how much difference did his coattails really make.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:08 AM   

I had been wondering whether this approach was possible and it certainly sounds to me like the best of a bad set of options.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:09 AM   

The more I learn about the Senate Bill the more I'm convinced America (as opposed to the Democratic Party) would be better off if indeed nothing passed at all.

Marcy Wheeler's latest on the Jonathon Gruber scandal (which it appears TPM has chosen to studiously avoid writing about)

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2010/01/17/on-gruber-i-dont-want-apologies-i-want-independent-analysis/

points out how in all likelihood the expected tax revenues from the excise tax passed by the Senate will never materialize. This means, among many other things, less money for the subsidies to mitigate the individual mandate. It also means that in all likelihood not only will most Americans receive less health care with higher out of pocket expenses, but, for the time, we also get the privilege of paying taxes on these awesome benefits.

The Senate Bill is a recipe for disaster.

And anybody who believes the Senate will actually come back and fix this, Rahmbama's promises notwithstanding, really needs to stop smoking whatever it is they're smoking...

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:17 AM    in reply to McMia

Adding I don't believe Coakley will actually lose tomorrow anyway and what will end up passing will be a slightly less crappy bill...

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:37 AM    in reply to McMia

I believe one problem with selling this bill to the public is that they don't believe the b.s. You're going to insure 30 million more Americans, it's going to be deficit neutral and it's not going to increase my taxes or diminish my healthcare? Why would anyone believe that? It defies common sense. But since they must appease the "war is free domestic spending is for wimps" caucus, the bill is an underfunded behavior modification plan designed to regulate the middle class since it's forbidden to regulate corporations or tax the wealthy.

But the spin is we must pass it anyway. Ask not what your party can do for you, ask what you can do for your party.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:59 AM    in reply to bluebell

As we all know, "common sense" trumps economic analysis. Intuition is perfect, whereas deduction is just the form of reasoning people use when they want to trick you.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:41 AM    in reply to McMia

Oh for Christ's sake. They're ignoring it because it is a fake scandal ginned up by people who, frankly, have completely lost their goddamned minds.

Unless you think Krugman's in on the gigantic conspiracy of silence as well, which, no doubt, Jane and her Firebaggers do by now.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/11/jonathan-gruber/

FDL is a feedback loop. The few times I've been there lately, the comments seemed to consist almost entirely of people firing off one-liners cheering on the poster and patting each other on the back for agreeing instead of the, *ahem,* vigorous discussions we have here. They've spent the last two years burying themselves ever deeper in that feedback loop convincing themselves that they were powerful and relevant oh so important. When reality checked in on them and they were confronted with their own irrelevance, the result was a mass nihilistic tantrum.

The Firebaggers are burying themselves. And they're still digging.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:13 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Bottom line is the WH, Senator Kerry and Gruber himself all sold him as an independent player when in fact he was receiving hundreds of thousands of dollars from the very people who were holding him out to be objective. You can honestly say if the D's involved were R's you would react the same way?

Besides, Gruber's, Kerry's and Rahmbamas lies aren't the important part anyway:

The second is through the fact that firms will spend less on health insurance – and this reduced spending will be shifted to workers in the form of higher wages. This conclusion of wage shifting is supported by both economic theory and evidence, and is assumed in modeling by both the JCT and the CBO. This division is very informative: the JCT estimates that about 80% of the revenues raised by the High-cost insurance tax will come from revenue from higher wages, not from the excise tax itself.

The quote is from Wheeler's piece linked above. These are Gruber's own words. What he is saying is 80% of the expected revenues from the excise tax will come to the gov't in the form of income and\or payroll taxes on the higher wages passed on to employees from their employers after health care costs go down.

Get that? Not only are health care costs going to plummet, but employers are going to pass on 100% OF THE SAVINGS AS WAGES TO THEIR EMPLOYEES!!

Yeah, ok then.

Please, read the whole thing. I urge you.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2010/01/17/on-gruber-i-dont-want-apologies-i-want-independent-analysis/

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:45 PM    in reply to McMia

Why, it's almost as if the people who are affected by the excise tax are either in unions which collectively bargain for their wages and benefits (and therefore can hold employers to current compensation levels through increases in wages rather than the obscenely expensive health benefits previously received) or highly compensated executives (who have sufficient bargaining power on their own to receive ludicrous compensation even when bargaining alone, as the current fight over banker bonuses demonstrates).

As for your independent analysis, that's what the CBO provides. The reason why Gruber was contracted by the Democrats was to provide them with models to use for the legislative work *before* things went to the CBO.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:56 AM    in reply to McMia

If you think that the Gruber "controversy" is evidence that the bill is flawed, you're an idiot.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/15/more-on-jon-gruber/

"That is, he was hired as an economist, paid to provide technical analysis — not as a pundit, paid to promote policies to the public. Maybe Glenn Greenwald can’t see any difference between the two — and the more of this I read, the more sense I have that the attackers are deliberately obfuscating the difference — but they really aren’t the same.

Now, there have been sweetheart consulting deals in the past, which were really a way of buying support. And if Gruber were a highly implausible candidate for this kind of consulting, you might suspect that this was one of them. But Gruber had a well-established record as a prominent health care modeler long before any of this came along; here’s a quick list from Google Scholar. It was perfectly natural that he would be hired to do this.

In fact, it’s hard to see who else you could have hired. Modeling health reform is a very detail-driven business: you need a detailed statistical representation of the population, together with detailed estimates of behavioral responses to incentives. Gruber has spent years developing such a model, which is maintained and update at considerable expense. Who else could bring the same resources to bear? Well, I guess the administration could have turned to the Lewin Group, but aside from the fact that Gruber has such sterling academic credentials, Lewin is owned by United Healthcare."

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:16 PM    in reply to AnonymousCoward

If the fact he was paid almost a million dollars is so inconsequential why did they ALL choose to intentionally hide that fact?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:55 PM    in reply to McMia

Simple: either they failed to realize that idiots like yourself would see an issue where there wasn't one, or they did realize it, and hoped not to draw attention to it in a vain attempt to prevent the daft from doing what they do best - frothing over nothing.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:19 AM   

Personally I think Plan B is better than Plan A!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:23 AM   

Everywhere I turn, online, TV, newspapers I see nothing but negative reporting for Dems on the Senate race in Ma. Someone from the White House made a negative comment the other day. If it isn't newscasters its talking heads, but the worst is when Democrats add to it. Now they're talking about contingency plans and reconciliation for health care if she loses.

This is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:26 AM   

And if the people in Ma allow this republican to win that seat then they deserve everything that follows, but sad to say, me and many others don't deserve what will follow.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:57 AM   

Well, they should have passed this 4 months ago, if this was the game plan. Why did it take soooooo long? This is nuts.

People are pissed because the dems aren't addressing the economy and the other problems. The "left" is pissed because this bill sucks and the dems are ramping up the war in afghanistan. They should just have passed this thing 4 months ago and got on with business.

Now, if she loses, they reap what they have sowed. This is not looking good at all for dems for tomorrow and next november. How people could vote in the tea baggers and the reich wingers just defies logic. However, it is what it is. Thanks b-movie actor for that war on education. It is bearing fruit.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:10 PM   

The best offense is a good concession speech.

TheWeekinRebuke.com

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:16 PM   

Pass the Senate bill and then use reconciliation to pass the changes that the House and Senate compromised on.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:21 PM   

Pass the bill and MOVE ON TO THE ECONOMY.

It is time to work on JOBS!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:31 PM   

The progressive Dems in the House should stand firm and refuse what the insurance companies and other limousine riding laves to wealth want, namely, the passage of the make private insurers wealthier Senate Bill.

No Bill is better than this Bill.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:58 PM    in reply to tbhull

Insurance companies sure are looking forward to having to pay out 85% of their income in medical claims, thereby reducing their maximum profit by a significant margin.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:22 PM    in reply to AnonymousCoward

More than offset in multiples by a federal law that requires everyone buy their shit.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:38 PM    in reply to tbhull

Cosign. That "85%" is extraordinarily mushy in any event. What is included as an "expense" or "claim." It is a corporate handout big time. I haven't seen the airwaves flooded with anti-reform adds from the industry. There have been some, but nothing that you would think if it was so "bad" for the industry. Mostly, the ads have been from repukes to derail the obama presidency and not concerning health reform per se.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:56 PM    in reply to Michael A

How is it mushy?

The types of spending which must make up 85% of the income of premiums are expenditures:
(1) on reimbursement for clinical services provided to enrollees under such coverage; and
(2) for activities that improve health care quality
-- Sec. 2718 of the Senate bill, page 2040, http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_bills&docid=f:h3590eas.txt.pdf

The classification of expenditures under (2) will have to be uniformly prepared by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and certified by the Secretary of HHS.

It is also important to remember that the 85% is a floor, and that individual states can decide to raise that percentage if they so choose.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:40 PM    in reply to tbhull

If you are correct, why has the insurance industry been trying so hard to defeat this bill? Why haven't they been running ads in support of the bill if they love it so much?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:44 PM    in reply to barbara63

The silence is deafening.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:38 PM    in reply to barbara63

Yeah, they hate the bill so much, the Coakley fundraiser was packed with insurance company and pharmaceutical lobbyists. But hey they hate it, right? What are you going to argue next, the fact that every single poll shows about 35% or less of the public wants the health care bill is actually evidence that it is super fucking popular?

http://www.sfexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Timothy_Carney/Martha-Coakley-K-Streets-choice-for-senator-81295092.html

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 1:49 PM    in reply to tbhull

Those multiples are more than offset by the requirement that they cover anyone, regardless of pre-existing conditions or prior insurance coverage (or lack thereof).

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:14 PM    in reply to AnonymousCoward

Getting rid of pre-existing condions and forcing insurance companies to actually pay for healthcare gives Americans the peace of mind that they will no longer have to worry about insurance companies denying them coverage if they or someone in their family ever comes down with a serious illness. Freeing people from the fear of bankruptcy due to illness is a huge accomplishment. It may cost everyone a little more, but health insurance that actually pays for healthcare is worth it.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:28 PM    in reply to barbara63

Exactly.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 3:23 PM    in reply to barbara63

Another thing about pre-existing conditions: When they deny coverage, do insurance companies give refunds? This whole pre-existing conditions nonsense is just a tax on people who get sick. Let's get rid of this Sickness Tax.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:45 PM    in reply to barbara63

This in no way would prevent people from going bankrupt over insurance costs. Why because there are no cost control measures here, as you yourself even admit with your "health care may be more expensive" comment. Christ, wasn't the whole fucking point to lower the cost of health care?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 12:38 AM    in reply to masanf

Well, I think a very important part of the bill is that it makes sure that you actually get what you've been paying for. Right now, you can pay your insurance company thousands and thousands of dollars over many years, and just when you need them most, they can deny you covearage and keep your money. That's just plain wrong.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 3:43 PM    in reply to tbhull

And so the hundreds of millions they've been spending fighting the thing--and are still spending--is, what, all an elaborate, half billion dollar version of "please don't throw me in that briar patch?"

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:34 PM   

The plan B should be to start over, simplify the message, simplify the bills, and pass bills with overwhelming public support.

For example, pass a bill called "Medicare for Kids" that provides Medicare coverage for everyone under 18, regardless of existing coverage. Not only would this be extremely popular and hard to vote against, but also it would relieve beleaguered state budgets of the some of the costs of Medicaid.

Then pass "Health Insurance Bill of Rights" that curbs abusive practices by health insurance companies such as dropping coverage when you get seriously ill, low lifetime maximums, and dropping coverage for minor but irrelevant undisclosed conditions such as acne.

Then pass "Buy into Medicare" that allows anyone, regardless of age, to buy Medicare coverage at competitive rates.

All of these would be overwhelmingly popular, simple to understand, hard to smear, and hard to vote against.

Together, they would substantially improve health insurance in this country, providing single payer through Medicare for all kids and relieving states and struggling households of that expense, improving consumer protections for everyone that currently has insurance, and setting up a public option (buying into Medicare) that provides a new choice to people who otherwise might not have insurance and pressures private insurance companies to do better.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:05 PM    in reply to GregGreg

As much as I hate the Senate bill (and I do), not to pass it at this point is PCP for the GOP. As obstructionist as they've been up until now, you ain't seen nothing yet. Dems will pass NOTHING, by which I mean 100% of everything, and someone will try to impeach the President again (probably Lieberman :-), and the Dems will claim they can do nothing, without "100 senators".

You must never, ever again, utter the words "start over" with reference to the health care bill. This is a longtime Luntzian bamboozle from the GOP ("Let's scrap the whole, flawed mess and just start over!"), and you can bet your firstborn that these concerned Republicans have absolutely zero intention of hunkering-down and "getting it right". They've been richly compensated by the for-profit health care industry, and the idea is to stop all reform. Not to "start over and get it right". Gimme a break.

And if they ever do attempt to initiate one of those fab "bipartisan" bills and call it "health care reform", what it will be is the Bush solution to everything from recession to psoriasis: tax cuts!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 12:36 PM   

Anything they pass through reconciliation will have a sunset provision attached, and it's not certain they can get fifty votes using that tactic. The House Dems should have passed the Senate bill word for word as soon as they could schedule a vote. There was no way to convince Lieberman and Nelson to vote for a more progressive bill. They screwed around pretending there was no Senate for a month, and now the entire bill is at risk. If they had been smart, the bill would now be law, they would be on to climate change or the economy now, and Obama would be able to talk about his great victory in the SOTU. Instead, they decided to play pretend for weeks and we might get nothing.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 2:53 PM   

I am hoping Ms. Coakley wins on Tuesday. If she loses, however, the Republicans will press to get Brown certified and seated quickly. I read that the Democratic state officials in Massachusetts have 10 days for the certification, during which period the Democrats in the US Senate with Senator Kirk could pass a modified health care bill.

My suggestion is that if the Republicans try to make a big fuss about getting Brown seated quickly, the Democrats can push back hard -- and with legitimacy -- by pointing out that the Republicans in Minnesota took many months to certify Al Franken as the winner of the 2008 Senate election in that state, and the Republicans like Cornyn in the US Senate were very supportive of that extensive delay in seating Franken. If the Senate Democrats and White House are forceful in pointing that out to the press, it will make Republican complaining about any delay in seating Brown much less effective.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 4:01 PM    in reply to David Dunham

David, that would seem the most logical path, and perhaps doable, but as I posted beneath another article:

If the CNN "Political Ticker" story from last night is to be believed, this (the 15-day delay for Brown to be seated) will have no impact whatsoever on a Plan B for health-care reform. Discussing a possible Democratic fast-tracking of a conference bill before Brown is seated, CNN noted fear of "a huge public outcry" (WTF?) and said that several Democratic senators who voted "yes" on the bill have told the White House they would now vote against it under any kind of fast-tracking circumstances.

Absolutely insane and timid beyond belief, but there you have it.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 11:46 PM    in reply to David Dunham

Wrong. There is nothing in the law that gives them ten days. The law states quite clearly that Kirk cannot cast votes after Tuesday.

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 7:28 PM   

Just have to say, the easy way to avoid having the Senate sticking its fingers in the pie a second time is for the House to pass the Senate bill, and send it to the President. Very simple, and that ends the discussion.

It's a technique Sen. Paul Tsongas used on a controversial bill, the one that resulted in the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act, which required Congressional consultation to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), in 1980. Carter signed the bill in December, after he lost the election.

See page 230 onward through 245 at: Paul Tsongas and the Battles over Energy and the Environment, 1974-1980, By Dane Morris Netherton
(A PhD dissertation, WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY, Department of History, MAY 2004 )

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 18, 2010 10:49 PM   

Hello, I'm sort of unfamiliar with politics; what does it mean when they are trying to pass a more "progressive" bill? Is it just more distinguished from our present healthcare system?

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 1:19 AM   

Best case scenario is that Brown wins, the the socialist/progressive/Democrats either refuse to seat him until they pass the big pharma/health insurance bailout... I mean health care reform... bill despite the obvious opposition of the majority of the American people. The backlash will be so great that even Barbara Boxer may not be safe!

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

January 19, 2010 9:26 AM   

January 18, 2010
http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0110/Pelosi_We_will_have_health_care_one_way_or_another.html?
showall

Pelosi: "We will have health care, one way or another"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tells reporters back home in San Fran that there will be health care reform whether or not Republican Scott Brown wins the Massachusetts Senate race tomorrow. A Republican win would cost Democrats the 60-vote majority they need to pass reform.

SanFran Chron's Joe Garofoli reports:

"Certainly the dynamic would change depending on what happens in Massachusetts," Pelosi told us and our notebook-toting brethren Monday in San Francisco at an MLK event. "Just a question about how we would proceed. But it doesn't mean we won't have a health care bill."

She went on to say that Brown has said he want to go back to the drawing board on health care. Not in my House, Madame Speaker said.

"There is no back to the drawing board," Pelosi said. "The Republicans in Congress have said we will kill health care reform. They are the handmaidens of the insurance company."

"Let's remove all doubt, we will have health care -- one way or another," Pelosi said. "Back to the drawing board means a great big zero for the American people."

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

June 6, 2010 2:52 AM   

Let's not forget that the real delay tactics that may defeat the bill came from the Blue Dogs. I've been reading all over this site that it's all the fault of FDL and a few lefties. But let's put the blame where it belongs - on the Blue Dog caucus, the Liebermans and Nelsons who get themselves on the MSM every Sunday and have the ear of every pundit and who have sold out the party all year long. Of course the irony is that Rahm and the geniuses running the White House political operation seem to have felt that was just swell. Delay the bill for months so you can screw the unions, serve the lobbyists and triangulate to victory. Maybe not.

m65 kamagra

Reply | Flag Abuse

Are you sure this comment violates TPM's Terms of Service?

Leave a comment

Your response:

Follow us!

Most Popular

TPM Stories Now Surging on