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Poll: Blumenthal Already Way Ahead Of Connecticut GOP Senate Candidates
CT Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT)
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There is already a poll out of the Connecticut Senate race, demonstrating that Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) retirement has drastically improved Democratic chances of holding the seat, with state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal holding landslide leads over the Republican candidates.
By a very fortunate coincidence, Public Policy Polling (D) was already in the field with a poll testing both Dodd and Blumenthal as Democratic nominees, in order to determine whether Democrats would do better by dumping the incumbent. The answer is an emphatic yes.
Dodd and Blumenthal were each tested against the three Republican candidates: Former Rep. Rob Simmons, former Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, and financial analyst and Ron Paul activist Peter Schiff. Dodd trailed Simmons by 44%-40%, was tied 43%-43% with McMahon, and led Schiff by 44%-37%. By contrast, Blumenthal leads Simmons by 59%-28%, is ahead of McMahon by 60%-28%, and leads Schiff by 63%-23%.
PPP also tested second-term Rep. Chris Murphy as a potential Democratic candidate. This is purely a hypothetical issue now that Blumenthal will likely be the Democratic nominee, but Murphy also would have led the GOPers, albeit by lesser margins due to his low statewide name recognition. Murphy leads Simmons by 42%-35%, McMahon by 43%-36%, and Schiff by 44%-28%.
This poll was conducted before the retirement news itself, and before Blumenthal got into the race. While in theory Blumenthal's numbers could change due to the switch from being a hypothetical candidate to an actual candidate open to public scrutiny, it's still very clear that he's an unambiguous step up from Dodd in terms of electability. The seat should now be considered a likely Democratic hold.
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SqueakyRat
January 6, 2010 12:43 PM
A poll that should be of some interest to Joe Lieberman, I'd think.
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junkmailqueen
January 6, 2010 1:30 PM in reply to SqueakyRat
Oh, CO-SIGN. Also to what everyone else says further down, especially on Rosa DeLauro taking on the Aetna senator. Oooo I feel so good today.
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CT Voter
January 6, 2010 12:49 PM
Blumenthal has tremendous name recognition.
And Chris Dodd sealed his chances when he moved his family to Iowa in what was an obviously futile quest for the nomination.
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Sailormarlowe
January 6, 2010 1:09 PM in reply to CT Voter
"Blumenthal has tremendous name recognition"...and 64 teeth..looks like.
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docrocktex
January 6, 2010 12:53 PM
I don't doubt that Dodd has seen similar results from his internal polling, hence the retirement. Smart move on his part, I'm glad he was man enough to get out of dodge.
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Kubrick
January 6, 2010 12:54 PM
This is great for Connecticut and the Democratic Party. We wish Dodd well. He deserves a breather.
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dick c
January 6, 2010 12:55 PM
Could Dodd be talked into running against Lieberman?
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Libertine
January 6, 2010 12:58 PM in reply to dick c
NOOOOOOO!!! Rosa DeLauro needs to be the one. She will clobber Lieberman.
:)
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CityGuy
January 6, 2010 1:16 PM in reply to Libertine
Agreed!
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theone718
January 6, 2010 3:51 PM in reply to CityGuy
Unless Jodi Rell runs. If she runs...........it's over no matter who we put up.
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Libertine
January 7, 2010 12:09 AM in reply to theone718
She claims she's through with politics. But, yeah, if she changes her mind in the future she would be VERY tough...
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TrivTriv
January 6, 2010 12:58 PM
FYI, Eric (and I've seen this same mistake on TPM before), it's World Wrestling Entertainment (not "Worldwide," although the company was called "the Worldwide Wrestling Federation" decades ago). Whatcha gonna do, TPM, when nit-picking readers run wild on YOOOUUU!!
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ohyeathatsright
January 6, 2010 1:17 PM in reply to TrivTriv
True; because WWF was already taken by the World Wildlife Foundation.
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Libertine
January 6, 2010 1:01 PM
I am happy. I love Chris Dodd and want to give him a heartfelt thanks for representing us here in CT so well for all these years. But in political terms he hit his expiration date for freshness. Blumenthal is da man up here right now. He should kick some ass this fall.
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CT Voter
January 6, 2010 1:14 PM in reply to Libertine
As a fellow CT voter, I cosign this.
Good day for Democrats in CT.
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Dorn76
January 6, 2010 3:43 PM in reply to CT Voter
This lifelong Nutmegger in total agreement.
Blumenthal is steeped in local issues, and a tough SOB.
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Libertine
January 7, 2010 12:20 AM in reply to Dorn76
A tough savvy politician with impecable credentials and integrity who has shown repeatedly he can get things done for CT. He is arguably the best of CT's Democrats right now...even though DeLauro and Larson occupy leadership positions in the House now and, in DeLauro's case, the past. This is his race to lose no way anyone will beat him, he'd have to defeat himself...and I would be shocked if that happens. A Simmons-Blumenthal race should be a good one with a lot of issues, probably with a minimum of name calling and mud being slung, being discussed. As most major races are run in CT...
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sconset
January 6, 2010 1:27 PM
I have known Dick Blumenthal since he served in the CT. General Assembly and he has been waiting for this day for the last 20 years and is more than prepared to be the next US Senator from CT. He is extremely smart, has built a terrific coalition, and is very, very well liked throughout New England.
CT voters know he has done an excellent job as AG and he will throttle all other candidates--he has a great record to run on and will be next to impossible to beat. Watch the money this guy raises---I just wish he were taking on Lieberscum instead.
I live in Massachusetts but I am very aware of the good will he has.
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EnnuiDivine
January 6, 2010 1:32 PM
Blumenthal was the favourite to challenge Jowly Joe in 2012, but the party is strong enough to field any number of candidates that will give him a solid whomping.
Any of the Representatives currently in Congress and any of the candidates who lose the 2010 gubernatorial primary would demolish Lieberman, even if Lieberman runs as a Repub (in which scenario he loses the primary and AGAIN runs as an "independent")
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Steve LaBonne
January 6, 2010 1:46 PM
Chris Dodd has done a great service to the country and the Democratic Party by retiring, and he deserves a lot of gratitude. Thanks, Senator.
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ru4862
January 6, 2010 1:53 PM
Many of us were hoping to see Attorney General Blumenthal wipe the floor with Joe LIEbermnan's "UGLY MUG" but I'm glad he he'll be coming to senate in 2011.
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JohnC
January 6, 2010 2:00 PM
Another grateful CT Dem here. Thanks, Chris, for your terrific service, and for your wisdom and devotion to the cause in getting out now. We need to keep the seat, and Dick Blumenthal will make a great senator.
There was a story on the local TV news this morning that Dodd last week spent some time sitting at Ted Kennedy's grave before he came to a final decision. Torches passing, and all that.
Now we have to get rid of Joe.
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El Puerco
January 6, 2010 2:08 PM
Do any of you CT voters know anything about this rep. Chris Murphy that PPP tested against the Rethuglians. Would he be a step up or a step down from DeLauro?
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CT Voter
January 6, 2010 2:34 PM in reply to El Puerco
Chris is my rep. He defeated Nancy Johnson in the 2006 election, and won handily against David Cappiello this year. He's in his second term.
I think in terms of name recognition he'd be a step down from Rosa. In terms of actual politics? I wouldn't say he'd be a step down or up. He's quite articulate when interviewed.
Here's his web site
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Dorn76
January 6, 2010 3:42 PM in reply to CT Voter
Different animals altogether. Rosa is very close to Pelosi, and carries alot of weight in the caucus. Murphy is new blood, and good on policy, though he LOOKS like a classic CT rich guy from Fairfield County...
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Dorn76
January 6, 2010 3:46 PM in reply to Dorn76
That's irrelevant of course, but quite a contrast from Rosa.
I like Rosa alot, I must admit, she was my Rep for 20 years or something until recent district changes...Got no complaints with my new guy Courtney, though, actually quite the contrary.
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CT Voter
January 6, 2010 3:56 PM in reply to Dorn76
I don't know Rosa that much--I've only lived here for 7+ years at this point--but I quite like Murphy. And I think he'd be a pretty good candidate were he to run for Bitter Joe's seat. . .
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JohnC
January 6, 2010 4:49 PM in reply to Dorn76
"Murphy is new blood, and good on policy, though he LOOKS like a classic CT rich guy from Fairfield County..."
He may LOOK like that guy, but he really ain't. More of an overachiever/wunderkind/politics wonk. He grew up in Wethersfield, a middle-class suburb of Hartford, went to Williams College and UConn Law School, practiced law for a while, was elected to a town planning and zoning board, then the state legislature quite young (25). No family bucks to ride on, as far as I know.
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El Puerco
January 6, 2010 9:02 PM in reply to JohnC
Thanks for the info, folks.
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Weitberg
January 6, 2010 2:36 PM
Come on Dodd, do the right thing. Register as an Independent and challenge Lieberman in his next go-around.
TheWeekinRebuke.com
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JohnC
January 6, 2010 2:37 PM
Re DeLauro vs. Murphy: I like them both. There's a big age/experience gap. DeLauro will be 69 years old in 2012, and she's in her 10th term. Murphy was first elected to Congress in 2006, and he'll be 39 in 2012. He's a really bright guy, with solid mainstream Dem ideas, and I think he's a great pol. He knocked off longtime rep Nancy Johnson (she was one of the last moderate Repubs) in '06, and I think he's made a great impression in D.C. So I guess on balance, thinking of the future, I'd be likely to support Murphy, but I'd be very happy to see Rosa DeLauro in the Senate.
Of course, after the last 8 years of Joe L., I'd probably be happy to see Rosa's dog in the Senate.
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Walter Mitty
January 6, 2010 3:49 PM in reply to JohnC
Murphy is definitely the way to go against Lieberman. Give voters somebody to elect that could work their way up in seniority.
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Silence
January 6, 2010 2:43 PM
The depth to which your oppressive heads are lay buried in the sand is truly astounding. Months ago, I told you that there are many Dem TEA partiers. Of course, I was called names because dissent is not something that you folks tolerate very well.
The TEA party exists to wipe out the crooks and thieves from both parties.
Embrace it.
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Schmed
January 6, 2010 2:52 PM in reply to Silence
Oppressive? You're being oppressed by someone's head?
Or are you saying that your head is pressed up somewhere?
What's astounding to me is your grasp of English.
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Silence
January 6, 2010 3:03 PM in reply to Schmed
The sand can be very comforting for those incapable of accepting the truth.
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Libertine
January 6, 2010 3:27 PM in reply to Silence
The truth? You can't handle the truth. This is strictly about CT politics. Tea partiers? What a joke. Peter Schiff? The Ron Paul acolyte? Not a chance in hell he'll be elected to represent this state in the US Senate. Obviously you didn't pay attention to the poll numbers. This has nothing to do with the political ideology of CT voters and has everything to do Chris Dodd and his foibles, real and perceived.
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Silence
January 6, 2010 3:54 PM in reply to Libertine
Really? So, CT still holds firm as a shill for Wall street? Thanks for the info.
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Libertine
January 6, 2010 11:43 PM in reply to Silence
Yeah his name is Joe Lieberman...
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Stroszek
January 6, 2010 3:34 PM in reply to Silence
The truth of what? That the tea partiers didn't care one iota about "wiping out crooks and thieves" until a black man was in the Oval Office?
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Silence
January 6, 2010 3:58 PM in reply to Stroszek
I guess it takes a black man to beat down a black man.
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Bwakfat
January 6, 2010 11:39 PM in reply to Silence
There are black TEABAGGERS? Where?
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Stroszek
January 6, 2010 3:23 PM in reply to Silence
ROFL!
I thought Tea Partiers were opposed to regulation and new government programs? Now you're trying to take credit for a liberal like Richard Blumenthal? Are you guys really that desperate?
Pathetic. And funny.
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CT Voter
January 6, 2010 4:01 PM in reply to Silence
No soap radio.
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Dorn76
January 6, 2010 3:39 PM
So Blumenthal is lookin good against the GOP, but the NYT says this means "bad year for the Dems" on the online headline...
Media meme anyone?
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AnswerFrog
January 6, 2010 4:19 PM in reply to Dorn76
You can't let the facts get in the way of a good story!
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
January 6, 2010 5:06 PM in reply to AnswerFrog
Christ, they wrote this story back in August after Charlie Cook started talking like one of those idiotic 2012/Nostradamus they seem to be showing nonstop on the History Channel these days and they filed it away until January. It's 1994 again. It must be, because if it isn't, they might have to use their brains and engage in critical thinking and other icky stuff like that.
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commie atheist
January 6, 2010 5:43 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
If voters want to embrace "The Party of Crazy," they're welcome to, but I kind of doubt they will. When reasonable people see that the tea partiers have taken over the GOP, it's not good news for Republicans, despite what the corporate-owned media would like us to believe:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_01/021793.php
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salan-john
January 6, 2010 6:33 PM
What about Peter Schiff. Enough, is enough with lawyers. They don't usually know anything about economics. Peter Schiff is the answer for CT but instead voters would rather put in lifelong politicians. We need this to end.
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salan-john
January 6, 2010 6:35 PM
The greatest problem Libertine facing this country is economics. Peter schiff forecasted the .com bubble of 2000, he forecasted the housing bust just recently. But since he is not a lifelong politician or because his poll numbers are low he is not qualified? Get real. If a politician can't pass a basic economics test they should not even be allowed to run.
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Libertine
January 6, 2010 11:17 PM in reply to salan-john
I'm not saying he is not qualified. But first off I think he stands no chance in the GOP primary against Simmons. And McMahon is ahead of him too. Simmons was only defeated in 2006 by less than 200 votes out of 242,000 cast. He is relatively moderate by today's GOP batshit crazy standards...and CT does like our moderate Republicans, from Weicker, to Shays, to Simmons, to Rell. Blumenthal has monster name recognition and monster favorables with the voters. Many of us on the left, center and maybe some from the right have been chomping at the bit for him to seek higher office. It is gonna get a bunch of people, who might otherwise have sat it out, very excited to get the polls for this midterm. Schiff being the relative political novice and complete political novice in terms of running for even statewide office never mind national office...I don't see him possibly beating Blumenthal.
I was not commenting on his positions per se just Schiff being overmatched politically by Blumenthal. Simmons is the GOP in CT's best chance. He has to run a perfect campaign and clearly beat Blumenthal in their debate(s) to even stand a chance.
I will say I disagree with Schiff's positions especially his 'starve the beast' and more tax cuts for the wealthy ones. I am not saying he is not qualified to run for office though. He is as serious as any of the candidates running in terms of having well thought out positions...and I can't think of the last time we elected someone to statewide/national office who was that conservative. Granted he isn't as conservative as Sam Caliguiri, another GOP hopeful for the seat, is but Schiff is still very conservative and probably unelectable right now in CT.
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