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Poll: Brown Takes The Lead In MA SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 15, 2010, 8:55AM

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MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

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The latest poll in the Massachusetts Senate race shows Scott Brown (R) taking a slim lead over Martha Coakley (D) as the clock ticks down in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate.

The poll, conducted by Suffolk University Jan. 11-13, shows Brown leading Coakley by four, 50-46. It's the latest in a string of polls showing the race is too close to call less than a week before voters go to the polls Jan. 19. The Suffolk poll has a 4% margin of error.

Yesterday, both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report officially listed the race as a "toss up." National political forces have shifted their attentions to Massachusetts, with both Brown and Coakley backers dispatching millions in money and resources to the state in the final days of the campaign.

The race reverberates far outside the Bay State. The idea of a Brown win is more than just an embarrassment for Democrats trying to hold the former Senate seat of Kennedy, one of the party's icons. It would also be a serious barrier to the passage of comprehensive health care reform, Kennedy's signature issue, this year.

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January 15, 2010 9:13 AM

Wasn't there another poll done yesterday that has Coakley up by 8?

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January 15, 2010 9:16 AM in reply to loria

Yes.

This poll used a likely voter screen that asked respondents if they knew the exact date of the election. Consequently, it shows an electorate that is much whiter, older and more rural than other pollsters.

It's a worst case scenario, but it's yet another good reason to make some calls for Coakley.

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January 15, 2010 10:33 AM in reply to Stroszek

IF you want to make calls for Coakley, you can do so through Organizing for America at www.barackobama.com. For those that are off on MLK day, this is a great time to make last minute Get out the Vote calls.

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cambridgeMR

January 15, 2010 11:18 AM in reply to bentd

MA Dems like me need to bust their asses all weekend over this. (I'm already signed up for every phone bank possible.)

Out of state Dems need to take out their checkbooks and donate right now, then sign up for phone banking via www.barackobama.com

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January 15, 2010 9:18 AM in reply to loria

Whatever the real numbers.... Come on Mass Dems, double down and GOTV on Tuesday!

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Sailormarlowe

January 15, 2010 10:30 AM in reply to loria

Big Scott Brown
He going down
To Washingtown.

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henk

January 15, 2010 12:23 PM in reply to Sailormarlowe

On Washington. (Banksters really) Isn't that what you meant?

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Sailormarlowe

January 15, 2010 1:00 PM in reply to loria

Poll say: Coakley got short hair, thin lips. She can't be trusted.

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January 15, 2010 9:19 AM

This is the same poll that had Obama beating Clinton in the MA primary and the NH primary. He lost by 15 in MA and 2 in NH.

May their crummy polling continue.

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January 15, 2010 9:43 AM in reply to FreeRider

Yeah and this daily up and down polling information is really silly. I am tired of looking at the same story with different headlines every day.

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January 15, 2010 9:21 AM

If he does win, what are the Dems in the Senate led by old wizened fool Harry Reid planning to do w.r.t. the healthcare bill? Does he became Senator instantly as of Tuesday night? Or does he have to be sworn in as per some legally mandated procedure a certain number of days after winning.

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January 15, 2010 9:22 AM in reply to jsdc007

Basically, there are two options:

1) Convince the House to pass the Senate bill with the promise that changes will be made via reconciliation
2) Secure a cloture vote before MA SoS certifies the election (which would take 10 days or so)

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January 15, 2010 9:24 AM

He's not going to win, of course, but the panic is amuzing to watch.

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January 15, 2010 9:31 AM in reply to Lalo35adm

On second thought, the fact that Obama decided not to campaign for her in MA suggests the Dems are going to write her off as a terrible candidate who couldn't even handle the "coronation" election.

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January 15, 2010 9:34 AM in reply to Lalo35adm

You had a first thought?

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

January 15, 2010 9:41 AM in reply to FreeRider

Apparently so, but it was back during the primaries and there hasn't been another one since.

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January 15, 2010 9:46 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

And here's a third one: if he does win in MA, the bluest of the blue, what does that mean for Dems in states that aren't so "proudly progressive"....

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January 15, 2010 9:54 AM in reply to Lalo35adm

It would mean they should have kept their base happy by supporting a public option.

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

January 15, 2010 9:57 AM in reply to Stroszek

Or, you know, maybe actually campaign their guts out rather than sit on their complacent asses and wait to be coronated once they win the primary. One would think they'd have learned that from FDL-darling Ned Lamont.

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January 15, 2010 10:18 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

NCSteve,

I agree with that too, but I think being able to campaign on a public option would have really helped Coakley. It's very popular in MA and without it, there's very little in the bill to run on since MA has already instituted the most popular reforms.

With that said, the Republicans are [unsurprisingly] misreading the role HCR plays in this race. MA Dems and Indies aren't cold on HCR because it's too liberal. They're cold on it because it's not offering them much.

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January 15, 2010 10:35 AM in reply to Stroszek

So, they are voting for Brown because they already have the health care reform needed by the rest of the country? I have a hard time understanding that mentality.

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January 15, 2010 11:18 AM in reply to loria

No, they're staying home because they don't have the same sense of urgency when it comes to health care.

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January 15, 2010 1:48 PM in reply to Stroszek

I still don't get the mentality. They've got theirs so they won't help the rest of the country get what they have?

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January 15, 2010 10:39 AM in reply to Stroszek

So the people of MA are upset because the bill wasn't liberal enough and therefore they turn their back on a liberal candidate and send a right-winger to the Senate?

Makes sense to me.

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January 15, 2010 11:20 AM in reply to FreeRider

They're not upset, they just don't care, and since they don't care, a handful of extremely motivated right-wingers have a shot at winning an election on the back of very lower turnout.

Part of this is Coakley's fault since she has completely failed to articulate how the bill might help MA.

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January 15, 2010 11:27 AM in reply to FreeRider

Those who are voting (less than half of eligible voters by last tally) are responding more to Brown who brings up issues that are of acute interest to them (jobs, Jobs, JOBS!) and could care less about the HCR issue that Coakley is harping on because 1) HCR is a done deal here in MA; 2) a 60 vote majority has proven to be absolutely meaningless for the feckless Democrats so far, so why worry about losing another one?

Once again, don't conflate MA Dems (approx. 35% of registered voters and 26% of total population) with "the people of MA." That was Coakley's most arrogant error.

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January 15, 2010 1:51 PM in reply to Schmed

Just how is Brown, or anyone from the GOP, planning to bring more jobs? I don't see how standing in lockstep against anything Obama plans to do brings jobs to MA or anywhere else in the country.

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January 15, 2010 4:36 PM in reply to loria

Who knows? It doesn't matter if he can do it or not. It matters if he TALKS about it. It's what people are worried about here. Not HCR.

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Chris Weagel

January 15, 2010 9:34 AM

I'm a proud progressive. The race being this close illustrates to me what an utter inept job Obama's team has been in reaching and sustaining a true mass movement. Their priorities clearly aren't with the millions they cultivated to win the White House. Their priorities are with the same moneyed interests that control everything else in this country.

What a missed opportunity and embarrassment. Part of me hopes the Republican does win and is able to sink this health care bill joke. It might wake someone up.

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January 15, 2010 9:41 AM in reply to Chris Weagel

Yeah, part of you wants the GOP to win, just to prove a point about how stupid Dems are. What an important point to prove, and what a better way to prove it -- by killing any hope for financial reform or climate change. We need more "loyal" Dems like you. LOL

A better explanation that perhaps doesn't entertain your resentments as well is that liberals got lazy and complacent because of a string of victories. History will show that parties in power almost always lose midterms to some degree.

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garp

January 15, 2010 9:49 AM in reply to AnswerFrog

And yet another explanation is that the Obama team got hit by a speeding bus containing 2 wars, the biggest financial meltdown in two generations, and their own ambitious agenda. In short, they've spent the last year trying to govern, and took their eye off the campaign. Just the reverse of the previous administration.

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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

January 15, 2010 9:54 AM in reply to AnswerFrog

The thing that gets me about "proud progressives" is the persistant counterfactual belief that their views are representative of the mainstream such that if only we would do what they want, when they want and in the way they want, massive electoral success would be assured.

But hey, it's a great delusion to have. With one self-contained fantasy, they can magically dispense with the hard, generational work of actually dragging public opinion leftward, give themselves permission to denigrate those who are actually doing that work as centrists, tepid incrementalists or corporate sell-outs, and, best of all, when the world-weary disillusionment that comes with their moral purity and perfect rightousness requires them to abstain from voting for the tepid incrementalists, they get to blame Republican victories that set their obstensible goals back by a generation on everyone but themselves.

It's very elegant and economical. Right wingers have to string together multiple delusions into a coprehensive alternative reality in order to achieve the same degree of self-satisfaction.

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January 15, 2010 11:38 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

I hope that you're just as critical of those who condemn progressives for the failure of the Dems to win elections that they arrogantly believe these Dems own or are in the bag or are part of their birthright (see "MA Dems" for details). Progressives may have as skewed a world view as you suggest, but I've observed that they're willing to get off their asses and work for it rather than take for granted that "the election is in the bag, so no need to campaign really hard."

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January 15, 2010 11:49 AM in reply to Schmed

Progressives willing to work for it? LMAO! I guess showing up to vote isn't work.

A bunch of whiny babies. I didn't get my pony so what's the point of having a Democratic congress?

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January 15, 2010 12:19 PM in reply to FreeRider

I guess showing up to vote isn't work.

So, Free Baby, in what part of MA do you live? And what brand of MA Dem is actually working to GOTV there?

Where I live (MetroWest), it's those loony liberal progressives, you know, like those Barney Frank supporters and Ed Markey types. Who is it in your MA neighborhood?

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January 15, 2010 1:51 PM in reply to Schmed

Well, we know you're not among them since you've been on TPM whining and bashing Coakley non-stop.

The only thing people like you know how to work is your mouth.

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January 15, 2010 4:38 PM in reply to FreeRider

Keep going. You'll see your duodenum on your right in just a few minutes....

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January 15, 2010 10:06 AM in reply to AnswerFrog

Well put!

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January 15, 2010 9:47 AM in reply to Chris Weagel

Wow, it's even hard for me to respond to a comment like that. I am a true liberal democrat and I would never wish for a Republican win so I question your true progressiveness, but then given the whining from most of the progressives, I am not surprised.

Obama never ran as a progressive, never. He ran as a democrat. It is something Progressives just can't seem to get into their heads. No matter what Progressives think, you cannot govern from the left or the right, you have to govern somewhere in the middle. Politics is the art of compromise. This is at least a 4-year term and to write him off in a year is just simply ridiculous. Left of Center has a great post.

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January 15, 2010 9:57 AM in reply to lousgirl84

"I am a true liberal democrat and I would never wish for a Republican win"

- you mean of course "a true partisan"

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January 15, 2010 10:19 AM in reply to Lalo35adm

Are you pretending to be a disgruntled liberal again?

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January 15, 2010 10:42 AM in reply to Lalo35adm

Whatever!! And just what are you, other than a first class complainer who likes nothing and stands for nothing!

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January 15, 2010 11:20 AM in reply to lousgirl84

I think I would use the term "ideologue".....uncompromising and dogmatic.
From the debate we can see that progressive Democrats are willing to compromise - and Republicans of any persuasion are not.

The issue of compromise is around the notion of entitlement of healthcare for all citizens and the incapacity of markets alone to implement it.

It's like going to the moon. The goal was to get there in 10 years. Private engineering companies were hired to accomplish the goal.

The engineering corporations were not left to decide what the goal was - the country did that.

Now we are saying the same thing with healthcare.

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January 15, 2010 11:09 AM in reply to Chris Weagel

You can always tell when someone posts claiming to be a true progressive but is in fact a trolling thug, because when called out, you don't see another post from them defending themselves.

I suspect Charles Weasel is one of those.

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LeftofCenter1

January 15, 2010 9:42 AM

Chris, if Massachusetts elects a Republican to replace Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, effectively killing his lifelong dream of reforming health care, it will be the DEATH KNELL for all progressive goals. The stunning upset in the bluest state in the country will energize Republicans and disillusion Democrats like you wouldn't believe and the Democrats will be exterminated in the November elections, handing the reigns of power to Limbaugh-Palin-Beck-Hannity-Bachmann club of right-wing extremists.

This health care bill is far from perfect, BUT....it does lay the framework for true reform and more meat can be added to it later. Social Security & Medicare were far from perfect when they were first signed into law, but over time Congresses worked on and improved both programs. So, with health reform, let's at least get our foot in the door now. This opportunity will probably not come again for decades.

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EnnuiDivine

January 15, 2010 9:46 AM

Coakley's in trouble..but that poll is horseshit.

First, it's a statistical dead heat (MoE of 4%)

Second, there is ZERO chance that 2/3 of MA's independents are voting for Brown. Independents in MA tend to be pretty centrist, if not leaning a bit to the left. Brown doesn't even feign centrism.

Third, Obama's approval rating is too low in that poll. National approval is around 50%...which would mean he'd be doing a lot better in a state like MA.

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January 15, 2010 9:55 AM in reply to EnnuiDivine

It's only a statistical dead heat when the Dem is ahead. Otherwise, any within-the-MOE-difference is a Republican lead.

See the headline for the Rasmussen poll for reference.

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January 15, 2010 10:48 AM in reply to EnnuiDivine

Bottom line GOTV wins this election and OFA better gas up their cars and get those bluehairs to the polls.

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January 15, 2010 11:41 AM in reply to glblank

They need to get the disenchanted young voters to the poll. Those are the ones who need to be convinced that their future is at stake here.

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January 15, 2010 9:49 AM

Better come out in vote because if one of Rush Limbo's peps wins, then Mass loses.

40 yrs of dem control the republipigs will stop life.

They don't care if you die, as Alan Grayson stated "The GOP plan for health care is die, die quickly"

Mit Romney ucked up the mandatory mess in MA and this slob willdo more.

Maybe cut you folks welfare bebefits or unemployment.

COME OUT AND VOTE your future depends on this.

The grande ole party will not bring $$$$$$$$$$$$ back to the state or much less fight for money for the middleclass.

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January 15, 2010 9:57 AM

With any luck Coakley will see Obama's YouTube video and get involved in the campaign.

TheWeekinRebuke.com

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Sailormarlowe

January 15, 2010 10:07 AM

Big Scott Brown, he the man. Wake up, Massachusetts! Make a right turn. Kennedy clones need not apply.

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January 15, 2010 10:15 AM in reply to Sailormarlowe

That's the most vomit-inducing post I've ever seen.

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mrCurmudgeon

January 15, 2010 10:27 AM in reply to Sailormarlowe

Sailor is fantasizing about the Cosmo pose. Looks like Brown has the self-hating gay vote in the bag.

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CranialRectalLoopback

January 15, 2010 10:15 AM

Good.

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January 15, 2010 10:17 AM

Don't believe it. Another poll yesterday showed Coakley ahead by 8. Basically, this means that Coakley will win by less than 5% (which is, in effect, a tremendous loss). But Brown will not pull it off. Even if every Republican and 65% of Independents vote for Brown, Coakley would still win. The math is impossible for Brown. Thank God for it.

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DKDC

January 15, 2010 10:31 AM in reply to ilovebacon

I think you're right, and unfortunately that also will mean we will get endless spin from the media about how even though the Dem won it's a "wake up call" to Obama and Congress to be more conservative.

And considering that, if there really are any "proud progressives" on this site hoping for a loss or close win as opposed to RW trolls, that will only bolster the idea that Democrats need to be more conservative in an election year and you will get absolutely zilch of your vaunted progressive agenda. So quit bitching and start working for it.

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January 15, 2010 10:44 AM in reply to DKDC

Bingo. Thank you. Unfortunately, your advice will fall on deaf ears because it's all about them (the progressives).

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January 15, 2010 10:55 AM in reply to DKDC

I could give a rats a$$ about the spin-a win is a win is a win. After a few weeks and HCR passing it'll fade, I'd rather have a Democratic Senator win by 1 vote than lose by any number. Obviously.

BUT, it'll be a wakeup call to Coakley. Teddy always *campaigned* and she'll have to learn that fact quick.

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January 15, 2010 11:46 AM in reply to DKDC

So quit bitching and start working for it.

I guess that makes Coakley and Co. "progressive" because they've been sitting on their asses and measuring the windows for new drapes rather than getting out there and working for it (until....uh....wait for it....right about....now!).

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January 15, 2010 10:40 AM

Printed Today:

"Mr. Clinton, who will attend two events with Coakley on Friday, is much loved in Massachusetts and has “a magical ability to motivate voters here,” says Charles Stewart, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. He notes that Clinton has always had success fundraising in the state over the years."

I wonder if the events will be televised.

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January 15, 2010 11:22 AM

If anyone wants to see why Coakley could lose this race go over to the Daily Dish and get a whiff of the candidate in Andrew's 10:35 post. She stinks on ice. She has that Hillary air about her that the election is merely a coronation. Time is running out and she still is on Mount Sinai. OFA and the Clinton machine had to come to her rescue. You would think the NY23 race would have wizened Dems but then hubris is not solely a Repuke quality

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January 15, 2010 11:24 AM

If she does manage to lose (I still think she'll pull it off), it's clear that the GOP will sweep the midterms, possibly taking back both houses. What will this mean? It will mean gridlock. Nothing progressive will pass. Remember the Clinton days when the only thing he could pass was welfare reform? It's the same. Liberals will say that losing the 60th seat will be a "wake-up call," but for whom?

I'm starting to think that representative democracy is not the best form of government. Makes one almost long for the stability and constancy of China's government.

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January 15, 2010 12:20 PM in reply to ilovebacon

But, the economy recovered and people prospered.

Allow me to take a page from the HCR sell sheet and modify it ever so slightly.

From:

"Thousands of people are dying everyday without health insurance."

To:

"We have millions of people unemployed and starving!!! The homeless need food, shelter, shoes and coats. They need jobs."

My assessment is much more accurate.

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January 15, 2010 12:28 PM in reply to Silence

Your assessment fails to identify which party put us into those straits. Handing the wheel back to them is pretty much an act of suicide.

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January 15, 2010 1:37 PM in reply to Schmed

Obama is a corporatist.

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January 15, 2010 1:52 PM in reply to Silence

And you're a right wing troll who's known as "Voting Present" on HP.

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January 15, 2010 2:01 PM

No way in Hell will a right wing tea bagger Republican win the late Senator Kennedy's seat.

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mechsixnine

January 16, 2010 1:30 PM in reply to bw

you people are sick. I'm not rep or dem I'm more Ron Paul. This lady is far from that, she's gone too far with her ads. I'm embarrassed more and more everyday, not only with our pathetic charity for weakness but now our school yard childish commercials. That money could go to feed people! What the hell is wrong with you people, just to insult!!!!!! Kennedy would turn over in his grave over this pathetic loser poor excuse for a woman!!! I just wish there was a canidate that really was for the people, without the godamn drama! Mike from cape cod

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HonestBrokerBoston

January 16, 2010 5:20 PM in reply to mechsixnine

You are too dumb to respond to.

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January 17, 2010 7:38 PM

No, No. This can be a positive.

-Lose the seat.
-Wake up the base.
-Go to reconciliation with a robust public option.

I'm finished.

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