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Poll: Coakley Up By Eight Points In MA-SEN
MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).
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The new Research 2000 poll of the Massachusetts special Senate election, commissioned by the local liberal blog Blue Mass Group, give Democrat Martha Coakley a lead of 49%-41% over Republican Scott Brown, with a ±4% margin of error.
From the internals, Coakley wins Democrats by 82%-12%, Brown wins Republicans by 85%-7%, and Brown wins independents by 49%-36%. If Coakley has indeed solidified Democratic support and is winning even just a significant minority of independents, that should be enough to put her over the finish line in this heavily Dem state.
This is the first publicly-released poll conducted entirely after the final debate from this past Monday.
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George C
January 14, 2010 12:57 PM
Sheesh! This is like watching Marv Throneberry play first base for the 62 Mets!
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celldumceen
January 15, 2010 9:27 AM in reply to George C
LOL! I don't think its gotten that bad!
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ilovebacon
January 14, 2010 12:59 PM
Looks like she'll win but only because the bejezus was scared out of Dems.
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Mateo123
January 14, 2010 2:32 PM in reply to ilovebacon
More than anything, I hope this signals to Democrats everywhere that safe is not always good, safe is not always successful. And, I hope it tells the consultants to, well, back off.
This is a candidate who campaigns by not holding rallies. She campaigns by working her internal contacts and has them call their supporters on her behalf. And, she seems to have her foot in her mouth all the time, recently sarcastically criticizing Brown for campaigning "at Fenway Park, in the cold, shaking hands."
It's a U.S. Senate seat. She should be knocking on doors. Her people should be knocking doors. She should host a rally once in awhile for Pete's sake. She's running to be a U.S. Senator, not a dog catcher. People have a right to hear from and an expectation to be proud of their senator.
I didn't love Norm Coleman or anything, but he had the courage and commitment to hold rallies to win the seat. Sure, as a senator he was awful, but Brown is really pulling a Coleman. He is simply outworking Coakley. Yes, the schedule is expedited, but still. There are plenty of smaller towns that are filled with people who would stand out and listen to Coakley give a talk about what is important to her. Brown is doing it. Coakley is not doing this, and that is why the race is so close.
Perhaps the DC Democrats should notice this.
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JC Aevaliotis
January 14, 2010 1:15 PM
I know that the conventional wisdom on this race is that it's an indicator of how tough 2010 will be for Dems. And that's clearly the case. But I wonder how much having the bejezus scared out of them early in what will surely be a tough election year mobilizes Democrats and liberal orgs and raises the awareness of Democratic voters. Knowing early what kind of fight this year will take could be somewhat good. Or, at least, help make an inevitably tough year less bad.
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pol
January 14, 2010 1:40 PM in reply to JC Aevaliotis
I agree. I think this has shaken many Democrats out of their sleep state.
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mrCurmudgeon
January 14, 2010 2:19 PM in reply to pol
DO NOT COUNT YOUR CHICKENS. I'm in Mass. and can still see a lot of enthusiasm for Brown. This ain't over. If anything, the impulse is strong to just "vote for something new" among moderates; pack Kennedy's thing and repaint the office. Very few lay-people here seem to understand the national ramifications of a Brown win. He's a snake, but a polished one.
8 point lead! For a seat held by Kennedy! In Liberal Massachusetts!! Outrageous!!!
GOTV people!! GOTV!!
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cambridgeMR
January 14, 2010 2:53 PM in reply to mrCurmudgeon
I am in Massachusetts and I am going to campaign every single day until the election. If you are in Massachusetts, you had better be pulling out your address book to call every single Democratic-leaning person you know! We need to swarm the polls on Tuesday!
Go volunteer at a call center. Check out www.marthacoakley.com to find where you can volunteer.
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AJM
January 14, 2010 4:40 PM in reply to mrCurmudgeon
People voted for Bush because they thought he was a nicer guy to have a beer with -- look where that got them.
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Pete Bilderback
January 14, 2010 1:52 PM in reply to JC Aevaliotis
Hope so. Democrats ignore the problems in MA, or assume they are particular to MA, at their peril. Clearly they need to find a way to engage and excite their base voters between now and November.
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W T F
January 14, 2010 1:27 PM
"Brown wins independents by 49%-36%"
Hmmm... this is going to be closer than people think.
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dswx
January 14, 2010 1:54 PM in reply to W T F
Not really. The number of Independents in MA is relatively low compared to most states as it is a strong Democratic party state.
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cambridgeMR
January 14, 2010 3:25 PM in reply to dswx
Incorrect. Plenty of people here are independents. I don't know the figures, but there may be more independents than Republicans.
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jsdc007
January 14, 2010 3:49 PM in reply to cambridgeMR
The split is basically 43% Dem, 17% Republican, and 40% Independents. So there is a sizable Independent base in MA. Coakley should have been promoting her experience instead of listening to the likes of the useless DNC Dems and hatching eggs. I'm shocked at how few Dems actually know anything about her.
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JNagarya
January 14, 2010 5:54 PM in reply to cambridgeMR
That ain't hard. There are approximately five Republicans in MA -- and three of those are lying.
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acf_ma
January 14, 2010 11:29 PM in reply to W T F
That's the reason why his ads always portray him as independent. Certainly, a conservative Republican would vote independent of an otherwise all Democrat Congressional delegation, but the use of the word "independent" is intended to speak to those unenrolled voters. Of course, parroting the national Republican rhetoric from before the ink on his announcement to run even dried, is hardly independent.
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Mellie
January 14, 2010 1:58 PM
I really wish this poll was never released. Massachusetts Democrats have had a rude awakening in these last 10 or so days...we need to keep the fire under them so they can get to the polls on Tuesday. For that, I'm not posting this on twitter :)
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Adam
January 14, 2010 2:06 PM
I think that saying this race is indicative of 2010 Democratic chances dramatically mischaracterizes the way this has played out.
Martha Coakley is a terrible candidate. She was the first to get into the race, and she coasted through the primaries without ever really saying anything, and it looks as though she's trying to do the same in the general. She might be a fabulous senator, but her unwillingness to actually ENGAGE in the election leaves a foul taste in my mouth.
Don't get me wrong, I'm voting for her despite my distrust of her tactics. But there were two better candidates in the primary field, both of whom would have made much better efforts to crush Brown early and win with a sweeping mandate. How I wish Michael Capuano or Alan Khazei had walked away with it. I was a Khazei supporter from the day he got into the race, and he had the grassroots support Patrick and Obama had statewide that would have made Scott Brown a Ken-doll-shaped asterisk. And Capuano is an old-school bulldog who would have torn pretty-boy Brown to shreds for his disingenuous "I drive a truck!" nonsense.
The reason this race is close isn't because of voter fatigue or disenchantment with Democrats in MA, but because Brown's the only one who's actually CAMPAIGNING. If Coakley gave two shits, she'd be up 20.
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gingersnap77
January 14, 2010 11:25 PM in reply to Adam
I completely agree with your post. Here in Massachusetts, I got at least one phone call per day from Coakley during the primary, then she up and disappeared after she won. I preferred either Capuano or Khazei, but I'm working hard for Martha now, just to keep that phony Mitt-wannabee Brown out of office. Finally, I think people are so hung up on Brown's newness that they're ignoring the national ramifications of his election. They just want new and shiny and Martha ain't that.
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JohnW1141
January 14, 2010 3:31 PM
If Dems in Ma. let this Repub get elected they deserve everything that follows.
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cambridgeMR
January 14, 2010 3:46 PM in reply to JohnW1141
Get a broom.
Donate or volunteer to do a call center if you're not from MA.
If you're from MA, you must herd every Democrat you know into the voting booth without exception.
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lousgirl84
January 14, 2010 3:49 PM
Oh my goodness.
http://gawker.com/5440502/naked-dude-compares-self-to-kennedy-plans-massachusetts-senate-upset
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GoodFoot
January 14, 2010 3:52 PM
Brown wants voters to forget what he stood for in the past.
Believing him now is risky business for Massachusetts.
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truthseeker77
January 14, 2010 4:59 PM
I am very surprised that Research 2000 told the liberal group that commissioned their poll exactly what they wanted to hear.
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The Emperor
January 14, 2010 5:12 PM in reply to truthseeker77
As surprised as when Rasmussen, run by conservative Scott Rasmussen, unveils poll results to conservative Fox News viewers that show exactly what conservatives want to see?
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JNagarya
January 14, 2010 6:05 PM in reply to The Emperor
At least one Boston TeeVee "news" program quotes the Rasmussen poll/s. The media like political campaigns to be "close" -- even if they have to lie to make it so -- so you'll tune in to watch.
And a friend tells me that one of that station's "reporters" is married to Scott Brown.
They haven't yet reported the fact that Brown has a 100 per cent rating from the NRA. Or that he's been getting money from the far-right lunatic fringe teaparty politics-illiterate.
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Lord Mike
January 14, 2010 5:30 PM in reply to truthseeker77
This is the same result as everyone else has been reporting. Coakley is at about 50%, Brown's numbers are up and down with various polls, but those numbers are irrelevant. It's only the top number that matters and this is still Coakley's race to lose!
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ericf
January 14, 2010 5:43 PM in reply to truthseeker77
Beware of believing what we want to believe. I still don't think Obama is going to beat McCain. OK, that's a bit far, but I'm willing to believe whichever poll motivates people to take things seriously.
My biggest hope is that no DC Democrats saw 1994 coming until election day, or at least close to it, so maybe they'll take nothing for granted.
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Max Thrax
January 14, 2010 5:57 PM
Am I crazy to think that perhaps an avalanche of ads displaying the increasingly insane behavior of conservatives would be enough to wake Dems up in the fall? Would a concentrated campaign to make black voters aware of the spate of overt racist acts towards BHO(if they don't already know) be enough to get them to vote in numbers approaching the 2008? Of course this assumes a competent Democrat Party....big assumption.
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