Poll: Dem Coakley Leads GOPer Brown In MA-SEN Race, But Low Turnout Could Help Brown

Rasmussen. I am supposed to be impressed with this. What is it with TPM and Rasmussen?

Coakley was in a 4-way primary and still got double the # of notes Brown got even though he was virtually unopposed.

Remember that Massachusetts voters have voted for Republican moderates (Bill Weld) and those they thought were moderates (Mittens Romney) before.

There is a conservative trend in reaction to Obama and the Democratic congress. I regret this but it is happening. It was evident in the VA and NJ gubernatorial results last year. It is very clear in Senate polls this year in CO,CT,DE,and OH. It is why Peter King is reassessing his chances in NY. And it is why Scott Brown is within striking distance of Martha Coakley, a good Democratic candidate, in MA. Commenter who disparage Rasmussen or otherwise ignore what is clearly occurring will get rude awakening this year. Coakley will probably win, given the Democrats edge in MA, but it will be the closest Senate election there since 1994, and maybe since Paul Tsongas beat Ed Brooke in 1978. There is indeed something happening here and what it is is all too clear.

There was certainly a swing toward liberalism,or at least the Democratic Party, in 2006 and 2008. That swing is over. It has now been reversed. And where the shift is most evident is among suburban and exurban voters concerned with too large budget deficits,tax increases, and increased regulation. It was those voters who swung hard for McDonnell in VA and Christie in NJ,though certainly also the Democratic "base" vote was down too. Such voters are also not fans of the health care bill, though that is more complex. Pleasing the base and pleasing suburban voters is very hard because they are angry about different and sometimes opposite things. Obama and his people are perfectly aware of their problems in the suburbs,which is why you are soon going to hear a lot about deficit reduction.

A Republican taking Kennedy's old seat? That would be a horrible shame.

No trend is absolutely effective and there is still plenty of opposition to the GOP, especially when it is taken over by extremists. The victory of Bill Owen in the Upstate district referred to by Stroszek is an instance of that. But he or she and others delude themselves if they think there is no conservative trend this year. I guess the argument is that when voters vote as liberals wish,the universe is in proper alignment. Conservative victories just reflect turnout anomalies or deceit by Republicans or racism or what the Marxists used to call "false consciousness" about voters' "real" interests. I don't why liberals are so comforted by such assumptions when they lose one election after another. Republicans won the presidential elections of 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004. They dominated American politics for 40 years. Don't such results reflect something deep in American ideological preferences? Obama broke the string by a centrist campaign which sought to transcend ideology. He is now perceived as a liberal, which is why is having problems with centrist voters.
Again, he knows this,even if his liberal critics don't. I am actually a Democrat and have voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since 1972. I do try to see what is in front of me however, and separate the world as I wish it to be from the world as it is.

Former male nude model State Senator Scott Brown (R) knows he likely won't win this one, but it positions him here for his next run, maybe when this seat comes up again in a coupla years. He'll have name recognition, and a tap on national winger funding.

You'll notice his photo ops include a daughter but no longer his wife Gail. The cynical among us might conclude it's because his daughter Ayla (of American Idol fame) is now more famous than Gail, a local newscaster. The man sure can photo op. And promise to cut taxes, because after all that's the only thing that will cure the economy.