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Poll: GOPer Castle Has Huge Lead Over Potential Dem Candidate In Delaware Senate Race
Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D-DE)
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A new Rasmussen poll of the Delaware Senate race shows Republican Rep. Mike Castle way ahead of the top potential Democratic candidate, in the race for Vice President Biden's former Senate seat.
The numbers: Castle 56%, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 27%. Coons is considering getting into the race, after yesterday's news that state Attorney General Beau Biden, a son of Vice President Biden, would not run for the seat.
From the pollster's analysis: "While 86% of Republicans support Castle, just 49%of Delaware Democrats back Coons. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democrats favor the moderate GOP candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state's unaffiliated voters choose Castle at this point."
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PorkBelly
January 26, 2010 2:27 PM
"County Executive"?
Yeah, running a party hack worked well in MA so why not use it in Delaware.
Doesn't the DNC have a recruitment arm anymore?
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terje
January 26, 2010 4:51 PM in reply to PorkBelly
Not sure why you think that a "County Executive" is a "party hack" - as a local elected official, County Executive is the equivalent of mayor, very close to voters in terms of delivery of services and day to day realities.
New Castle County has about 500,000 people, nearly about 2/3rds of the population of the state - as such, Coons represents more voters than any non-statewide elected official in the state. By most accounts, he is a progressive reform minded County Executive. He has comfortably won 3 county-wide elections (2000 for County Council, 2004 and 2008 for County Executive)
I don't know much about Coons, but a few quotes from his Wikipedia bio make him seem like somethings other than a typical party hack to me:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_A._Coons
"After college, Coons worked in Washington, D.C. for the Investor Responsibility Research Center, where he wrote a book on South Africa and the U.S. divestment movement. He then worked as a volunteer for the South African Council of Churches and as a relief worker in Kenya, before returning to the U.S. to work for the Coalition for the Homeless in New York. In 1988, Coons worked as issues director for the U.S. Senate race of Delaware Lt. Gov. S.B. Woo. In 1992, he earned his J.D. degree from Yale Law School, and a Master's degree in Ethics from Yale Divinity School."
He may or may not prove to be a strong candidate, but dismissing him as a "party hack" before knowing anything about him seems like a premature matter to me.
If not someone like Coons, exactly what kind of profile candidate do you want the DSCC to recruit? Seems to me that, at least on paper, he could turn out to be a strong candidate.
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terje
January 26, 2010 4:52 PM in reply to PorkBelly
Not sure why you think that a "County Executive" is a "party hack" - as a local elected official, County Executive is the equivalent of mayor, very close to voters in terms of delivery of services and day to day realities.
New Castle County has about 500,000 people, nearly about 2/3rds of the population of the state - as such, Coons represents more voters than any non-statewide elected official in the state. By most accounts, he is a progressive reform minded County Executive. He has comfortably won 3 county-wide elections (2000 for County Council, 2004 and 2008 for County Executive)
I don't know much about Coons, but a few quotes from his Wikipedia bio make him seem like somethings other than a typical party hack to me:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_A._Coons
"After college, Coons worked in Washington, D.C. for the Investor Responsibility Research Center, where he wrote a book on South Africa and the U.S. divestment movement. He then worked as a volunteer for the South African Council of Churches and as a relief worker in Kenya, before returning to the U.S. to work for the Coalition for the Homeless in New York. In 1988, Coons worked as issues director for the U.S. Senate race of Delaware Lt. Gov. S.B. Woo. In 1992, he earned his J.D. degree from Yale Law School, and a Master's degree in Ethics from Yale Divinity School."
He may or may not prove to be a strong candidate, but dismissing him as a "party hack" before knowing anything about him seems like a premature matter to me.
If not someone like Coons, exactly what kind of profile candidate do you want the DSCC to recruit? Seems to me that, at least on paper, he could turn out to be a strong candidate.
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TaylorB1
January 26, 2010 3:38 PM
Castle has been on the ballot almost every two years in Delaware pretty much since the beginning of time. Why would it be any shock that at this point he has a lead in the polls? It's January...it's all about the names that people know, not about the person they will be voting for in November.
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masanf
January 30, 2010 11:13 AM in reply to TaylorB1
I will say one thing, you are an optimist. Castle is one of the most popular politicians in that entire state, Democrat or Republican. He would have won against anyone. Coons has absolutely no chance. Will he get more than 27% of the vote? Obviously. Does he have a chance of winning? No.
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kman23
February 4, 2010 11:19 PM
I like Coons' chances. Sure it's not the 55%-60% chance of victory that Beau would have given us but it's not bad odds.
Castle has nearly a 100% name ID in Delaware. He has been an elected official in Delaware since 1981. He was the Lt. Gov. from 81-85, Gov. from 85-93 and US Rep since. He will not go above the 56% that he is currently at because of that fact. Everyone that likes Castle is already voting for him. The fact that Castle will surely be challenged by a Tea Party nut only hurts him because conservative Republicans will like him less and Castle might have to move right on an issue or two, hurting himself with moderate Dems. No Tea Party nut can beat Castle in a Republican Primary but I'm sure since they hate "moderates" a Tea Party nut will run for the Conservative Party or the Constitutional Party or another 3rd part in the general. This might take anywhere from 5% points (more likely) to 10-12% points away from Castle because he does have a strong image of being moderate, even though he isn't.
Coons currently has 40% of the state's residents living in his district. This is great for him because he can really focus over the summer on gaining name ID in the southern half of Delaware and then focus 80% of the fall on turnout in and around Wilmington (his base).
If he gains 2 points a month between February and October that's 18 points which would give Coons 45%. In a race with a 3rd party the winner might need around 47%.
Castle's 56% is inflated by it being a Rasmussen poll (5% point boost?) and the Democratic popularity numbers being far worse then they should be in November (10% points?). I think Coons can win this if he raises money well. If he does poorly out of the gates it's probably over.
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