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Poll: Nevada Souring On Not Just Reid, But Dems In General
Pres. Barack Obama and Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)
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The new survey of Nevada by Public Policy Polling (D) not only finds that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in trouble for his re-election. It suggests that Democrats would still have a hard time with a different nominee in most situations, with Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman coming out the best.
Reid trails former state GOP chair Sue Lowden by 51%-41%, and he's behind former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian by 50%-42%. Other Democratic names in the state were tested, and most of them didn't do well, either. Rep. Shelly Berkley trails Lowden by 46%-38% and Tarkanian by 47%-39%. Secretary of State Ross Miller trails Lowden by 44%-34% and Tarkanian by 45%-34%.
Goodman edges Lowden by 42%-40%, within the ±3.6% margin of error, and ties Tarkanian at 41%-41%. Goodman has been widely discussed in the local media as a potential independent candidate for governor, not as a Senate candidate. (He could also have plenty of material that an opponent could try to use against him statewide, such as his famous answer when a group of schoolchildren asked him what his hobbies were. His answer: "Drinking.")
In addition, President Obama's approval rating in Nevada is only 44%, with 52% disapproval in a state that he won by 55%-43% in 2008. The poll also has Nevada's likely voters opposing President Obama's health care plan by 36%-54%. This issue has done a lot in recent polls to contribute to Reid's unpopularity back home, polls have shown.
What this all suggests is that the situation in Nevada is different from the recent developments in Connecticut, where Sen. Chris Dodd's retirement and his replacement as Democratic candidate by state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal have vastly improved Democratic chances. Connecticut did not have a problem with Democrats, it had a problem with Chris Dodd. Nevada genuinely has a Democratic problem, and might be persuaded to support Goodman.
PPP communications director Tom Jensen writes: "Goodman's initial polling numbers are encouraging comparative to Reid, but it's hard to say how he would hold up in a statewide campaign. One thing for sure is that Reid's issues are not exclusive to him and reflective of a general souring on national Democrats in Nevada."
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Bloggin
January 14, 2010 12:01 PM
What this sounds like is the beginning of a 'Get out to vote' campaign for Democrats to energize the base to vote in the november elections.
If Democrats/Independents feel it's going to be an 'easy' election, people won't show up. So the big push is will be to get the active voters energized and out to the polls to defend Democrats, and the president, against the GOP if they want anything done in the next 3 to 7 years.
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CityGuy
January 14, 2010 12:02 PM in reply to Bloggin
Agreed. And really, Nevada is still a pretty Red state.
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btbradley86
January 14, 2010 12:15 PM
I honestly and sadly decided a few weeks ago to quit volunteering for Sen. Reid because even in the most liberal sections of Las Vegas I was getting screamed at and spit at. Nevada may have more registered Democrats, but the anger in the vast rural area has infected the state as whole. I dont see Dems doing well here next year at all. Ill go back to volunteering in some capacity, youth voter turnout maybe, but party politics is awful dangerous this cycle.
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Dogger
January 14, 2010 4:58 PM in reply to btbradley86
Look at the bright side. If that weakling Reid gets booted, the Democrats may finally resort to choosing a strong leader for the Senate.
The GOP needs to think this through. Reid is an appeasing pussy, and capturing his seat may hurt them when new leadership is chosen.
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Backcountry
January 14, 2010 12:21 PM
I think this illustrates how terrible of a job Obama has done in leading the health care debate especially and of selling the Democratic message as a whole.
This is one thing that George W. Bush did much better than Obama. Every day W. used his bully pulpit to rip on the "liberal" anti-American Dems who opposed any item on his agenda. The language was almost always unfair and built on lies -- but he got out there and set the agenda for the whole country.
On the other hand, W didn't have a 24/7 network set up to discredit him and his agenda. The rest of the media, which cannot bring itself to label a LIE as a LIE played right along with him, since he was the one who was usually lying instead of his opponents.
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dtOZONE
January 14, 2010 12:31 PM in reply to Backcountry
Bush was an asshole, Obama's not...you mean we need an asshole to lead the country and constantly slam the other side?
How's that supposed to make the Democrats look better?
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Cal Gal
January 14, 2010 4:03 PM in reply to Backcountry
I agree that Obama's use of the bully pulpit has been disappointing to the max.
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G33k Dude
January 14, 2010 12:26 PM
My apologies, but this is a distorted poll conducted by robocall asking very rapid fire questions in the middle of the day for "those who would vote today".
Additionally, the results come as no real surprise as most of the media in Nevada is controlled by the Los Vegas Review Journal/Stephens Media hate mongers who daily bash Reid and Democrats for everything. The flyer insert identified as the Sun newspaper is a joke(George Will is a regular columnist.) and of little or no opposition to the LVRJ. Local television news and editorial comment is normally stenographic to Repug talking points. So it comes as no surprise that these polls reflect what they do as there is very little opposition media.
Perhaps the only saving grace is that Democrats lead in voter registration. I'm not having a lot of faith in that.
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ericf
January 14, 2010 12:31 PM
In both state and issue polls, the important question is where the erosion came from. Did support drop because Reid, Obama, etc. are seen as ineffective, too far left, or too far right? I'm thinking of the polls indicating drops in support frmo health care reform came from liberals who thought it was too watered down, and those polls in Connecticut showing Blumenthal doing so well. Is that because he's personally popular for some reason, or because Wall Street hates him and that energizes the base?
It amazes me so many Democrats can't figure out that independents aren't enough to win. You have to have your base too. Those are the people manning the phone banks, knocking on doors. If they just vote and don't volunteer, you're doomed.
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dnegri
January 14, 2010 12:35 PM
My favorite comment recently came on the 538 site, where someone stated that Reid's popularity has declined because he's become too "partisan" and hasn't "delivered the goods" for Nevada. Other than wondering if that's because Nevada get bullet-train money...I can only assume it means that Reid hasn't delivered enough "pork" to Nevada. So once again we see that even for Republicans, it's easy to decry "pork" in general but not when it's your congressman, of course. And the punish him/her for not getting enough.
Hypocritical voters.
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cube3u
January 14, 2010 1:11 PM
Well, of course they are! Pass healthcare and these numbers will change within a week.
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AJM
January 14, 2010 3:44 PM in reply to cube3u
Wishful thinking.
The health care bill is compromised beyond belief and the validity and/or usefulness of those compromises have yet to be sold. Quite a number of those in favor of the public option feel betrayed and doubt that the bill in the current form is worth passing.
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Cal Gal
January 14, 2010 4:05 PM
One word: milquetoast.
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