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Poll: Pence Leads Bayh In Potential Indiana Senate Matchup
Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
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Add another reason for the rumor mill to churn about a Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) run for Senate this year. A new Rasmussen poll out this morning shows Pence leading the man he'll try to unseat should he enter the race, Sen. Evan Bayh (D), in a head-to-head matchup
The poll shows Pence ahead of Bayh by 3 points, 47-44. Bayh, a moderate who has at times clashed with the White House over spending during the past year, would be a particularly sweet target for the GOP. The prospects of a Pence win is also likely to fire up the tea party base of the GOP, who consider Pence one of their kind of Republicans.
Pence hasn't said whether he'll run or not, but reports show he's been seriously considering it. Last week, Reid Wilson reported Pence met with the NRSC to discuss the possibility.
Late Update: Rasmussen has posted the full poll to their site. The margin of error on the poll is 3.5%, meaning the Pence-Bayh results essentially show the race to be a dead heat. But the data also shows that voters may be ready to replace Bayh. He's also locked in a dead heat with another potential GOP opponent, ex-Rep. John Hostettler (though in that matchup it's Bayh with the three point lead.)
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barbara63
January 25, 2010 9:49 AM
Considering that this poll tends to lean toward Republicans and considering the current state of the Democratic Party, I'm surprised Bayh is within (I'm assuming) the margin of error. I think that if the Dems can actually get their acts together and pass healthcare reform, Bayh will gain a good lead.
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EnnuiDivine
January 25, 2010 9:59 AM
Prior to the Citizens United ruling, you could probably toss this poll out.
Bayh had around $13m in his re-election fund in October and the number's only grown by now.
Even with the trend towards the GOP this year, Bayh remains pretty damn popular in Indiana.
With the influx of corporate cash, though...anything can happen.
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felix
January 25, 2010 10:02 AM
I don't think Pence will run. He has a fairly high profile in the House already. Why would he risk it?
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stevelaudig
January 25, 2010 10:20 AM
Senator Bought's, err Bayh's popularity isn't very deep among Democrats. He has pissed away any support from progressives who see him as just a pretty mask on an otherwise Republican vote. Other than his friends that he placed on the federal bench who are solidly progressive he has no liberal or progressive credibility. Enough otherwise Democratic voters will skip voting for him. His time is over. He just doesn't know it yet.
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chimpale
January 25, 2010 11:01 AM
Oh no, Evan, you've been too liberal for Indiana. You've got to move even further to the right!
In the same way that Republicans seem to think that cutting taxes is the solution to every problem, Bayh seems to think that being more like Republicans is the solution to every problem the Democrats may have.
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jana47
January 25, 2010 11:37 AM
Why hasn't this guy changed to the Republican party? After all he's continuing to carry their water!
He's one of the reason's every issue includig Health Care can't get done by the Dems
Just go Republican BAHY please, we don't need Dems/Blue Dogs who can't work withing the party and he's one of the worst.
Check out his campaign contributions from Healthcare and Big Business, therein lies the answer.
Bayh is the dems worst nightmare
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
January 25, 2010 11:54 AM in reply to jana47
In fairness (though it chokes me to say so) Bayh, was not part of the problem with healthcare. Early in the year, he made two or three attempts to assemble a RINO-DINO coalition as part of his own personal power-enhancement program, but the exercises apparently forced him to recognize the obvious. He actually said in the NYT that bipartisanship isn't possible anymore because the Republicans have purged all the moderates so if we're getting this done, it's all on us, which rather badly undermined the hostage takers.
I can't stand him. His political outlook on everything is catastrophically stupid. But on one hand, the prospect of his seat being taken over by Pence, who's one of the most odious figures in the House, is horrifying and, on the other, the prospect Pence giving up his house seat and losing the Senate race is delightful.
Put it all together and I'm finding myself saying "Go Bayh." (Then I retch, rinse my mouth out and try it again. My goal is to only throw up in my mouth a little bit when I say it rather than the full-on blowing of grits.)
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Sailormarlowe
January 25, 2010 11:59 AM
Get rid of Bayh. Do dah Republican rock.
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dswx
January 25, 2010 12:00 PM
As I have been beating the drum here for ages against TPM for not understanding what the margin of error means in a poll, let me say "Thank you!" for the "Late Update" which really tells the story! Well done. Now if you could change the headline to more accurately reflect what the "Late Update" says about the race being a dead heat.
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Kevin Sutton
January 25, 2010 12:19 PM
Byah may be really stupid, but how often is he a major stumbling block for Dems? I don't think he's caused all that much trouble of late, so unless there was some better Democrat who would win, or unless the GOP gets a lot less obstructionist really soon, there's no reason for Democrats to see want the back of him.
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pseudonymous in nc
January 25, 2010 1:17 PM
Oh, Assmussen, I can't wait for you to come up with a poll showing how Michele Bachmann beats Al Franken in a hypothetical 2014 Senate matchup in Minnesota.
Because we know you want to.
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Sailormarlowe
January 25, 2010 3:12 PM in reply to pseudonymous in nc
In fact, highly regarded, powerful populist princess Michele Bachmann will easily defeat sadsack Fabian Al Franken, should she choose to run against him. She is dynamic, demanding, discerning, and delightful. She enchants, she inspires. He is a drab, dumpy little dwarf.
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IndyLinda
January 25, 2010 1:53 PM
As an Indiana voter, I get very frustrated with Bayh, but let me suggest that anyone bashing him do a little research on Hostettler and Pence to put things in perspective. It's no surprise that the tea party crowd thinks that Pence is "one of their kind."
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June 8, 2010 4:06 AM
I can't stand him. His political outlook on everything is catastrophically stupid. But on one hand, the prospect of his seat being taken over by Pence, who's one of the most odious figures in the House, is horrifying and, on the other, the prospect Pence giving up his house seat and losing the Senate race is delightful.
Put it all together and I'm finding myself saying "Go Bayh." (Then I retch, rinse my mouth out and try it again. My goal is to only throw up in my mouth a little bit when I say it rather than the full-on blowing of grits.)
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