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Poll: Salazar Might Have Lost In Gubernatorial Race
Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar
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A new Rasmussen poll of Colorado suggests that if Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar had run for governor -- he has just decided against it -- the former Colorado Senator and state attorney general may well have lost, and might not even have been the strongest possible Democratic candidate.
Salazar and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper were both tested in the poll, which was conducted yesterday, against Republican former Rep. Scott McInnis. Salazar trailed McInnis by 47%-41%, while Hickenlooper is also behind by a narrower 45%-42%.
That said, the pollster's analysis argues that Democratic chances of holding this governor's mansion have actually improved since the retirement announcement by incumbent Dem Gov. Bill Ritter, noting that Ritter trailed McInnis by an eight-point margin last month.
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DCCyclone
January 7, 2010 3:10 PM
The notion that the Rasmussen polling shows Dems have improved odds of victory in CO-Gov is misplaced.
It's not a valid comparison to look at a Rasmussen poll with Ritter a month ago and a new poll without him today.
And the only tea leaf that comes close to an apples-to-apples comparison actually supports the opposite conclusion, that Ritter was polling relatively evenly with the other Dems now talked up as possible replacements. That tea leaf is that Rasmussen shows Ritter's job approval at 44%, with 52% disapproving. Incumbents usually poll very close to their job approval number, so Ritter really appears to be in the same ballpark as Hickenlooper and Salazar.
But playing devil's advocate to my own devil's advocate, one thing counters the notion that Ritter would be equally strong, and that's that incumbents with negative job approval seldom have much room to grow unless their own job approval improves. In contrast, a good share of those respondents who disapprove of Ritter are keeping an open mind on Hickenlooper (and Salazar, absent his quick decision not to run).
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
January 7, 2010 3:25 PM
An eight point gap for a Democra,t in a Rasmussen poll, this far out from election day, before any candidates have declared or started campaigning, and right at the point when employment numbers are finally at the brink of moving, isn't exactly what I'd call dire news if I were contemplating a run.
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lousgirl84
January 7, 2010 4:29 PM
Yes, it is Rasmussen so it is meaningless - but who cares if "he might have lost". He's not seeking the Governorship so who cares? WTF???? Need to fill up space on the website?
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