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Poll: Toomey Momentum Grows In PA

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Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

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Pat Toomey, the man who drove Sen. Arlen Specter from the Republican party last year, is now threatening to drive the Democrats from the Pennsylvania Senate seat they've held since Specter left the GOP last April. A new poll from Franklin & Marshall University shows that among registered voters, Toomey is tied with Specter and leads Rep. Joe Sestak, who's challenging Specter for the Democratic nomination.

Among likely voters, Toomey leads both men by double-digits. He's ahead of Specter 45-31, and leads Sestak 41-19. Inside those numbers, Franklin & Marshall polling director Dr. G. Terry Madonna told me, is a similar story seen in the 2009 gubernatorial elections and last week's Massachusetts Senate race: Toomey's voters are far more motivated and excited about the race than Democratic supporters.

Madonna said the screen his poll uses to determine likely voters essentially turned into a measure of voter motivation in this poll. He suggested analysts ignore the direct results among likely voters until a few weeks before election day. But he said the numbers do show that Toomey's supporters are already more fired about about turning out than the Democrats are. In recent elections, a similar motivation gap in polling foreshadowed big wins for Republicans, including the upset win in Massachusetts.

A Rasmussen poll of likely voters last week also showed Toomey leading both potential Democratic nominees.

The likely voter numbers may not be an accurate read on what the results would be were the election held today, Madonna said, but "they are very revealing of the state of the political environment."

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January 27, 2010 11:44 AM   

What this really demonstrates is that Specter should perhaps consider stepping aside for Sestak

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January 27, 2010 12:46 PM    in reply to holyhandgrenaid

Agreed, the fact that Toomey's numbers go up against Specter means there are a lot of people out there who would vote for anyone as long as they aren't Specter.

The same was true for the other linked polls:

"Toomey leads Specter by 49%-40%, and he leads Sestak by 43%-35%. A month ago Toomey led Specter by 46%-42%, and led Sestak by 44%-38%."

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January 27, 2010 1:26 PM    in reply to Cy Guy

What's the sampling error?

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January 27, 2010 11:49 AM   

Toomey looks like a freaking hillbilly madman.

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January 27, 2010 11:59 AM   

OK, Toomey is ahead in January. Coleman led Franken in January. And August. Maybe even September, I don't recall. But that guy in the Senate sure looks like Franken.

Wait, don't tell that to Toomey. Just tell Republicans they're bound to win and we just give up. The cockier they are, the sweeter it will be if we can pull off an upset in November.

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January 27, 2010 1:03 PM    in reply to ericf

Wasn't Croakley ahead of Brownie like 30 points a month before the election?

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January 27, 2010 1:37 PM    in reply to ilovebacon

didn't you get the memo that says that was just a rare anomaly?

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January 27, 2010 4:24 PM    in reply to Lalo35adm

David Vitter is safe too.

Sorry, what was that about an attempted wiretap in New Orleans?

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January 27, 2010 12:00 PM   

I wonder if the fact that the Pennsylvania Democrats can't stop tearing each other apart has anything to do with this?

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January 27, 2010 12:29 PM    in reply to OhioGuy

Specter should stay where he is. Of the 3 candidates that get the major press, Specter is the one in the center. He is better able to pivot in either direction as we go through the rest of the year.

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January 27, 2010 12:33 PM    in reply to Darrius

I didn't intend the above post to reply to Ohio Guy; I meant to respond to Holyhand.

BTW, Ohio Guy, the fact that Democrats are in fighting with their own left is causing more problems than you could imagine...or maybe you can imagine, but it is no doubt causing problems.

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January 27, 2010 12:00 PM   

"Toomey's voters are far more motivated and excited about the race than Democratic supporters"

Dear Democrats, When you run on a platform of change and govern on a platform of warmaking and shilling for the biggest lobbies, people aren't really inspired to vote for you, regardless of your opponent.

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January 27, 2010 12:07 PM   

Specter is going to be politically toxic come November. The ultimate establishment insider cut a deal to switch parties to save his own skin. When base motivation is an issue, how can the Dem party expect to rally their base around a 30 yr Republican who voted with Bush 95% of the time and campaigned for and voted for Mccain/Palin?

If Sestak got machine backing I think he could beat Toomey, but the machines tried to clear the way for Specter and Sestak wouldn't move - I guess that could be a campaign point for him as an outsider.

Toomey has said a lot of wingnutty things in the past, but is frantically trying to moderate himself now - he can successfully do that if Specter runs as Specter will be running from his own past votes and statements so can't call Toomey on them. Sestak on the other hand can challenge Toomey on his past statements and views.

Another problem is Sestak probably isn't the best candidate either. Dems tried to clear the deck for Specter, meaning other potential candidates got out of the way.

If I was advising Specter I'd have him declare an independent and run as a 3rd party independent. He'd have to do it now while he's still polling well ahead of Sestak, so it couldn't be claimed he did it only because of further political opportunism.

He could claim that the Dem party isn't for him either. That he is an independent and doesn't feel he fits in any party. He could claim the middle with Toomey a far right wingnut and Sestak already being framed by Toomey as a Pelosi liberal.

Toomey attacking Specter or his jump to Dems and his votes while there and sestak attacking Specter for his 30 years of GOP votes would only help cement him as an independent centrist.

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January 27, 2010 12:49 PM   

Just a note - it's Franklin & Marshall College, not University. It's a small, regional liberal arts school in Lancaster, PA.

As for Mr. Toomey, he is virtually unopposed in his primary, which has allowed him to position himself as a moderate. Even a cursory foray into his record as a Congressman shows him to be an extreme conservative. Once the primaries are over and the Dems focus on Mr. Toomey, the public will see him for the super-conservative he is. The man is even more conservative than Rick Santorum!

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January 27, 2010 12:51 PM    in reply to GAK001

I also forgot to mention, he started his career on Wall Street and even personally wrote part of the legislation that repealed parts of Glass-Steagall, leading to the financial crisis.

Fat Cat Pat Toomey is more concerned with Wall Street than he is about Main Street, and it's a shame.

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January 27, 2010 2:30 PM    in reply to GAK001

He's no different than all the rest of the republicans

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January 28, 2010 10:51 AM    in reply to GAK001

Franklin Marshall. A tad higher than your avg. community college.

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January 27, 2010 12:52 PM   

Anybody who votes for somebody who looks like Toomey has serious issues. I'd hide my kid if I saw that creep walking down the street.

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January 27, 2010 1:02 PM   

Doesn't this turd-muffin run in every Senate election? He looks evil, plain and simple. About as un-Christlike as they get.

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January 27, 2010 1:08 PM   

Sestak needs to give it up

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January 27, 2010 1:10 PM    in reply to JohnMcCSF

As I said in comment on the Rubio surge, there are likely to be several little Rubios bouncing about the Senate cloakroom next year if things keep going as they are...

PASS THE BILL YOU IDIOTS

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January 27, 2010 1:12 PM   

We who live here and work in the party know that Toomey is going to win. The Obamoids who flooded the state are gone, and in the November, 2009 election Democrats got crushed because all the independent who voted for Democrats in 2008 stayed home, even though there were lots of important local races. Rendell's popularity is at an all time low because of the state's budget problems, and because legislation he signed in 2003 raising teachers' judges' legislators' and his own pension will result in real estate taxes rising 30% this year. In addition, electrical deregulation he pushed in 2003 will cause everyone's electrical rates to go up 30%. Those who vote are mad at the state government, do not realize that Rendell had to have the help of Republicans to create the mess he is leaving behind, and will take it out on Democrats because theirleaders are too frightened to fight back. Rendell is a big talker now, but he was a frightened little mouse in his first seven years in office when all he cared about was passing his legislation with resultant tax and utility bills that would come due only when he left office.

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January 27, 2010 2:31 PM    in reply to Harry Truman

That's some frickin crystal ball you got there Harry !!! Take your b/s somewhere else

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January 27, 2010 10:52 PM    in reply to Harry Truman

a lot of people? 3 points isn't a lot of people. All those polls say to me is people haven't really started paying attention. 43% or 45% -- he's going to need 50%+ to win.

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January 27, 2010 1:24 PM   

Toomentum!

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January 27, 2010 10:57 PM   

Toomey going to win but in May not November, not against Spector. Lots and lots of people have voted for Spector and in the moderate republican parts of suburban Philadelphia, he remains popular.

I'm worried that we are likely to elect a republican governor this next time around and Spector's health ain't that great. There's a reason Gerlach isn't running for the Republican nomination for Governor. I think he's getting in line for an interium appointment as US Senator.

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