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Top Dem Pollster: Pass Health Care Or Face 2010 'Disaster'

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Democratic pollster Celinda Lake

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A top Democratic pollster said today if Congress fails to pass health care it will be a "disaster" this fall.

Celinda Lake, who most recently served as the pollster for Attorney General Martha Coakley's losing campaign in Massachusetts, said there is deep frustration with Washington but moving away from health care would be the worst decision.

"We can't talk about it for a year and deliver nothing, that would be a disaster," Lake said. "We should pass it and then we have to go sell it. We have to tell people what is in it."

Lake made her comments during a panel on Obama's first year in office hosted by the American University College of Law this morning. I also was a panelist at the event, which will be podcast in full later today.

She said the biggest problem related to health care in the Massachusetts race was that voters didn't understand the measure being debated in Washington.

"Voters had no idea what was in it," Lake said, and therefore rated it poorly in polls. But when her team polled on specific elements of the bill voters rated them highly.

Lake was asked by a student questioner if she'd do one thing differently in the race. Her answer shocked the political reporters in the room - she would have done a daily tracking poll that would have let her know earlier that the race was so close.

Before Coakley was defeated, Lake told reporters the campaign didn't have the money for polls. Some Democrats blamed her in part for the loss.

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January 21, 2010 1:01 PM   

Bad messenger, but she's still right. We need to communicate to Democrats in the House that they need to pass health care reform and that there's only one way to do it. The sooner they figure that out, the sooner we can get it over with and pivot to more popular legislation for the mid-term elections.

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January 21, 2010 1:49 PM    in reply to Xantar

I agree.

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January 21, 2010 1:54 PM    in reply to Xantar

And you are so right, because you obviously know more about the reelection chances of the people who don't want to pass this bill and what their constituents want than the people who actually have the burden of passing this piece of shit bill that is about as popular as Satan.

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January 21, 2010 2:02 PM    in reply to Xantar

Can we all call Masa Rush Limbaugh and ask him for his advice?

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January 21, 2010 1:13 PM   

"Voters had no idea what was in it," Lake said, and therefore rated it poorly in polls. But when her team polled on specific elements of the bill voters rated them highly.

This is so simple and it's the thing that is most frustrating to me. Why can't people in Congress who understand the bill, as well as the need for it, articulate that to constituents? In fact, why can't they explain it to people like Nelson, Lincoln, and Landrieu?

If they can't figure out how to put it into words, then I'm offering my services for free. I'll make sure they understand it. And I promise I won't rough them up. Much.

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January 21, 2010 1:17 PM    in reply to chimpale

Nelson, Lincoln, and Landrieu all voted for the bill.

The problem is now progressive members of the House.

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January 21, 2010 1:43 PM    in reply to Zell

They voted for it after they wrecked it and made sweetheart deals that sabotaged the party.

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January 21, 2010 2:10 PM    in reply to wbgonne

It sabotaged a better deal than what we have on the table now. That does not imply that what we have on the table now is worse than the status quo.

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January 21, 2010 1:46 PM    in reply to Zell

Nelson, Lincoln, and Landrieu all voted for the bill.

They voted for a piece of crap after progressives had repeatedly given ground to them. It wasn't progressives who threatened to join the GOP filibuster.

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January 21, 2010 2:11 PM    in reply to chimpale

I understand that progressives did not threaten to join the GOP filibuster, and I am not absolving Nelson et al of blame that they so rightfully deserve. That does not change the fact that the hold up right now, for the only bill that there is a chance at, is due to House progressives.

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January 21, 2010 3:07 PM    in reply to Zell

I don't dispute that. But, I don't think it's the progressives who need an education about health care reform. I still think the blue dogs are clueless or indifferent or worse.

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January 21, 2010 1:52 PM    in reply to Zell

And that still doesn't address the fact that Nelson, Lincoln, and Landrieu don't seem to have a clue about why there's a need, in particular, for health insurance reform. They don't seem to be aware of the problems that millions of Americans have in just trying to get and keep health insurance coverage. Either that or they don't care and they're more interested in maintaining insurance companies' obscene level of profitability.

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January 21, 2010 2:12 PM    in reply to chimpale

Everyone knows that those people are to blame. That does not change the fact that there are also other people to blame, nor does it change the fact that there is currently an immediate and pressing problem which those people have absolutely no control over.

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January 21, 2010 3:01 PM    in reply to Zell

Lets not forget our lawmakers have a trillion-dollar "medsurance" industry spending millions through K-Street to keep them from voting for the public good.

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January 21, 2010 3:03 PM    in reply to JEP07

The pressure must be awful! (Please pass the caviar!)

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January 21, 2010 3:04 PM    in reply to Zell

Progressives are holding out for a pound of flesh from Obama and I don't blame them. After being shit on all year by Rahm & Co., Obama needs to perform an epic mea culpa and sign an oath in blood that he will work tirelessly to improve the bill.

Reid needs to do the same, but his pound needs to come from his heart.

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AJM

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January 21, 2010 5:03 PM    in reply to bdop4

Can't.

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January 21, 2010 3:17 PM    in reply to Zell

Jesus, here we go again. "ConservaDem good. Progressive bad."

Yeah, it's such a shame the progressives watered this bill down until it's really nothing but a few new rules and millions of new customers for the insurance industry. Those damned progressives. If only they'd tried to stop this train wreck from happening.

Oh, wait. That's right....

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January 21, 2010 8:54 PM    in reply to EastWest

I never said anyone was good, let alone "ConservaDems". I'm pissed off at the blue dogs.

That doesn't change the fact that the current Senate bill is better than anything else that will come out of the Senate now.

Nor does it change the fact that the House could pass that bill, which is the best bill that will come out of the Senate, right now.

Nor does it change the fact that the reason that the House will not do so is that the progressive wing of the House caucus will not vote for it.

Nor does it change the fact that health care reform will die for yet another generation.

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January 21, 2010 1:16 PM   

the top dem pollster is from that loss. that does not speak well for dem pollsters.

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January 21, 2010 2:30 PM    in reply to Indie Pro

True dat.

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January 21, 2010 1:43 PM   

She's absolutely right on the money. Whatever she might have done wrong on the Coakley campaign -- and she might not have done anything wrong, she might have been placed in an impossible position -- every Democrat should hear this message.

Every Democrat should understand that failure to pass health care reform would prove their party isn't fit to govern -- and it would result in millions of Democratic activists sitting on their hands and not giving a penny this fall.

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January 21, 2010 5:31 PM    in reply to Moose49

They already did that in Massachusetts BTW; they'll just be more assertive now.

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January 21, 2010 1:51 PM   

More echo chamber cluelessness. Hey, we lost in Massachusetts to a guy who promised to block the health care reform, so obviously the message from that is not pushing health care will cause huge losses. Up until the last day or two, I was worried the Dems would catch on and perhaps limit their midterm losses. Now I can see they are going to get clobbered.

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January 21, 2010 2:43 PM    in reply to masanf

Here comes the new argument of intractables around here.

So what is it, did the Dems lose in Mass because they ignored their progressive base, or because they were catering to it?

We retort, you decide!

The fact is, both "sides" are rejecting incumbents as a protest against the status quo, and both those "sides" are represented here in our discussions. TPM has become something of an ecumenical political blog, which can be refreshing if you learn to understand how stuck either side is on itself. If that was not true, we would only hear one side of this argument.

But now we are seeing a review of what the next 10 months will bring; lefties claiming there's a backlash from the left because Obama's too far to the "right" , and wingnuts claiming it's a backlash from the right because Obama's too far to the "left".

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January 21, 2010 3:27 PM    in reply to JEP07

"seeing a PREVIEW"

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AJM

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January 21, 2010 6:33 PM    in reply to JEP07

Not mutually exclusive.

Also, when you run on promising to make things right but don't explain what you think right is the voters -- as Obama well knows and deliberately took advantage of -- believe that you mean the same thing they do but since the voters do not agree among themselves what right is you unavoidably lose supporters when you have to actually do anything because you can't please them all.

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January 22, 2010 4:57 PM    in reply to masanf

Well, here's the thing: the Dems are in a bind. Conservative-leaning independents motivated by opposition to HCR are already going to vote against him, regardless of whether the bill passes. The question is whether they can sustain any degree of morale among the base. Doing that will make the difference between a "clobbering" and the electoral equivalent of a thermo-nuclear blast to the face.

As Massachusetts shows us, the reforms in question are quite popular once implemented and understood. If you pass the bill, you can run on the things people like. If you don't pass the bill, it remains a complete cipher that you'll still get hammered for without being able to defend yourself in a reasonable way.

On top of that, it's usually wise for any party to do the opposite of whatever advice the opposition is suggesting. Just as the GOP were wise not to listen to early Democratic advice to be bipartisan with Obama, Democrats would be wise not to listen to people like yourself who are, quite simply, motivated by a desire to defeat Democrats and will merely dispense "advice" intended to motivate people towards acts beneficial to your party.

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January 21, 2010 1:53 PM   

Pass it ASAP. By the time the midterms roll around, it will be old news.

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January 21, 2010 1:53 PM   

"She said the biggest problem related to health care in the Massachusetts race was that voters didn't understand the measure being debated in Washington."

And yet more bullshit about how the real reason behind the bill's unpopularity is because people are ignorant yokels. The bill has been out there for months and months. People know what's in it. That is why it is unpopular you moron.

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January 21, 2010 4:36 PM    in reply to masanf

If most people know what's in the bill--and I've seen nothing that supports that--the majority would be opposing it because it doesn't do enough (i.e. no public option), not because it goes too far.

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AJM

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January 21, 2010 6:36 PM    in reply to masanf

See FiveThirtyEight. Polling proves you wrong -- some people didn't even get that it assured coverage for pre-existing conditions.

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January 22, 2010 4:48 PM    in reply to masanf

Talking points robot likes talking points.

But yeah, people don't know what's in the bill. That's not a knock on people, more a testament to the failure of the media to inform people about policy issues and the failure of Dems to present a coherent message. Most of the people I know who have advanced degrees, both Democratic and Republican, know nothing about how the reforms are supposed to work. I guess John Q. Voter could be keeping up with the Kaiser Family Foundation blogs, but I'm inclined to doubt it and the polls would seem to back me up on that.

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January 21, 2010 1:53 PM   

I'm not an activist but I have been a contributor in the recent past to Obama, Tom Udall (boy, was that a mistake) and Joe Sestak. It's hard to conceive of circumstances that will induce me to contribute again to any Democrat for a long, long, time.

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January 21, 2010 1:56 PM    in reply to bluestatedon

President Sarah Palin. Can you concieve of that?

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January 21, 2010 2:05 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Does anyone think we should call MASA Rush Limbo

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January 21, 2010 2:06 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

I certainly can. We in MA just elected the male Sarah Palin to replace Ted Kennedy. Our politics is so rotten that should just skip the whole election thing and have American Idol style tele-votes. And with the Supreme Court's ruling today, things will only get worse before they get better. I hope America is still a great power by the time we grow up.

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January 21, 2010 2:19 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Having a halfway sane President is pretty damn important. So I'll keep working for Democratic candidates for that post no matter what.

I've gotta say though, Steve, I'm wondering whether I should care how many seats the Democrats have in Congress. They can't seem do get anything done whether they're the majority or the minority.

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January 21, 2010 3:43 PM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

We pretty much already have her...

Democrats stand "strong" for an issue until Republicans start to attack it, and then they fold and want to "compromise" or "find a better way forward" (which has lately been code for neutering legislation just to keep Democrats on board with moving an initiative forward).

Palin got end-of-life care pulled from the bill, and she arguably rallied enough attention to this bill to heighten opposition to it.

I know it's easier to win when an argument when you're concerned about facts. But you certainly can't win an argument if you're not even willing to engage in it. Where were the Democrats talking about how many lives would be saved by this legislation? Where were the Democrats drawing attention to people whose lives had been devastated by insurance rescission?

President Obama, with his bully pulpit and "great oratory skills," couldn't (and didn't really even try) to highlight the human cost of inaction.

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January 21, 2010 8:33 PM    in reply to hewhohasnoname

You guys say stuff like that. "How much different is it, really?" "Why should we care who controls Congress?" Yada yada yada.

Take a step back and try to separate mere frustration-based hyperbole from the potential reality.

Show of hands. How many people here believed we were just one more big terrorist act away from martial law and concentration camps (build by Halliburton and staffed by Blackwater) at some point during the Bush-Cheney administration? How many people here had specifically identified which country they would flee to if necessary at some point between 2002-2006? How many weighed Canada vs. Australia vs. some specific country in Europe?

How many have felt that way since 2006? Or at least since Bush and Cheney hightailed it out of the Village a year ago yesterday?

Now then, take a breath and imagine it. President Sarah Palin. Or, scarier, and more likely still, President Jim DeMint. Speaker Bachmann. Attorney General Steve King. House Majority Leader Wilson. Senate Majority Leader Inhofe.

They are crazy people. They do not believe in democracy or free elections. They do not believe in Due Process or the presumption of innocence or the right to an attorney. They do not believe in any of the rights in the Bill of Rights except the right of conservative white people to own guns. Their eliminationist rhetoric about us is every bit as serious as Hitler's raving about Jews and Slavs in the late 20's. And, just as then, people routinely discount it as puffery or ignore it because they're too busy playing their own power games or jsut too self-aborbed to acknowledge the danger.

It's the difference between living in a country that's a bit of a mess and a country where the microcosmic police states we've been nurturing in our airports leak out onto Main Street.

It's not fearmongering. It's not some boogieman being waved in your faces to squelch your sacred right to be drama queens. It's the reality looming just on the other side of the horizon . One that will be here in a heartbeat if we don't get our priorities straight and start differientiating between the actual enemy and people who merely disagree with us on questions of political tactics or the granular policy details of shared principles.

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January 21, 2010 3:30 PM    in reply to bluestatedon

Stopped doing that last summer....

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January 21, 2010 1:59 PM   

masanf, there is the tiny possibility that you're the moron here. I know it's inconceivable to you, but it does exist. Lake stated, "But when her team polled on specific elements of the bill voters rated them highly."

Are you telling us all here that you know what specific elements were polled in the survey, and what the responses are? Do you work for Lake? Did you somehow gain access to the polling results?

American citizens on the left and right can be amazingly misinformed about issues facing our country all the time, and this health care bill is no different.

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January 21, 2010 2:01 PM   

Looking like "BIG TIME CLOWNS"

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January 21, 2010 2:22 PM   

So if they pass the Senate bill, midterms will go well?

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January 21, 2010 2:43 PM   

Man, she must have gotten that insight from some of the polls she commissioned--oh wait, she didn't commission a tracking poll?? But she did blame the White House before the election was over? Wow, let's all gather round to listen to the incompetent lady! I bet she has a lot to teach us about losing elections, her central area of expertise.

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AJM

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January 21, 2010 6:38 PM    in reply to ultracool

And meanwhile back at the White House they hadn't a clue either?

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January 21, 2010 8:48 PM   

One of the "changes I could believe In" was the one about "Transparency". I am not a Democrate but he had me with that one. I wanted to believe that he was different and would take health care to a new level. What did we get, The same old, same old.
Then when the back room deal started; Nelson, Lincoln, Landrieu, I sent a check to Massachusetts to get some change I can believe in for real.

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January 22, 2010 4:49 PM    in reply to inokeah

Yeah, I'm sick of Massachusetts pols like Landrieu and Nelson.

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January 21, 2010 11:41 PM   

I am a proud liberal who has never voted for a Republican in my life. I have volunteered for, worked for, and donated to countless Democratic candidates in every election since 1992. But I have to say that I've had enough with the spineless incompetence that the Democrats have continued to show.

I met President Obama in March 2003 when he was running in the U.S. Senate primary in Illinois and volunteered my butt off to support his candidacy. I wrote policy papers, organized volunteers on the northside of Chicago, and canvassed virtually every weekend in the bitter cold winter of 2003 (and the warmer spring and summer of 2004). When then-Senator Obama announced his candidacy for President, I was estatic. The day Obama was elected President was a day of great pride for me - not only had I met Mr. Obama, but I thought we finally had a brave leader who could strongly and eloquently communicate the progressive message to the American public. When the Democrats also got a 60-seat majority in the Senate and a large majority in the House, I was even more elated, as I expected real action to address the critical economic, health care, national security, civil liberties, and environmental issues facing our nation.

I am not naive - I did not expect change to be easy in light of the mindless right-wing control of our media and the intransigence of the do-nothing Republicans. And I realize that most elected officials are less liberal than I am, so I did not expect my wish list of liberal policies (such as single payer health insurance) to be passed. But I did expect the Democrats to use the overwhelming mandate the public had given them to actively fight for real reform and improvement for every day Americans, and to challenge the Republicans who have proven themselves to be an illegitimate political party who have little interest in actually trying to govern.

Instead, we have gotten the same spineless, afraid-to-take-a-stand approach to governing and campaigning that has stricken the Democratic Party for the past 30 years. Instead of fighting for the real health care reform and other progressive changes that President Obama was elected on, the Democrats have spent the last year negotiating away every progressive policy proposal in an absurd effort to try to placate folks who do not hold progressive values but instead seek to continue the same conservative policies that got our country into the mess it is in. Instead of loudly and proudly fighting for the progressive policies and values that have made this country great, Democrats continue to cower in fear of criticism from Tea Baggers and Fox News. And the person in charge of our party - President Obama - has done virtually nothing to push back against the conservatives or to bring his own party into line in favor of progressive principles and policies, and is now basically raising the white flag on real health reform because the Democrats now have only 59 Senators instead of 60.

Enough is enough. I have been told for the past two decades that I need to concede my liberal values so that Democrats could win elections and achieve incremental change. Over those two decades, I have seen income inequality escalate, our health care system continue to collapse, our military budgets skyrocket, our social safety net be dismantled, our infrastructure crumble, our civil liberties corrode, and barriers to unionization continue to increase. Yet now that Democrats have an overwhelming majority in the House and Senate, and have the Presidency, they are not fighting for progressive values or even attempting to fundamentally alter the conservative political frame that has gotten our country into this mess.

In short, the Democrats are once again proving that they are too spineless and scared to fight for, much less achieve, the real change this country needs. Continued spinelessness is both horrible for our country and will lead the Democrats back to the political wilderness as the American public wants leadership, not cowardice.


My wife, who is possibly more livid and disappointed with the President and the party than I am, and I have just taken down are picture of President Obama off of our wall. If the President Obama and the Democrats do not start fighting soon, they will lose the rest of my support, as I will be left with no other choice but to conclude that working for Democrats is not the way to achieve the progressive change this country needs.


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January 22, 2010 1:41 AM   

Well the pollster is half right. Not passing health reform is going to be a huge disaster for millions of people. However, not a single one of them is a Democratic Congressman or Senator. Several of them will not be reelected, and will have to somehow scrape by on six figure pensions with free health care for life.

Cry me a damn river, Ms. Lake. You just worked for a bigger putz than John Kerry.

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January 22, 2010 8:49 AM   

It's not true. The democrats are poised for another landslide in 2010.

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