TPMDC
With Health Care On The Line, Campaign Workers Swarm MA-Sen Race
MA Senate Candidate Scott Brown (R), the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and State AG and Senate Candidate Martha Coakley (D)
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Five weeks ago pollsters, pundits and politicians alike thought the special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts would likely be a snoozer. But as the battle over health care heated up in Washington and in the final days before Tuesday's election, the race has become a proxy for the national health care debate and one that Democrats could lose.
The bill Democrats have been working on for six months hangs in the balance and Republicans are flooding the zone in hopes of a symbolic victory to kick off the 2010 election year.
Sources tell TPMDC the battleplan laid out for both sides in December had to be scrapped as the race between Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and state Sen. Scott Brown (R) grew tighter. Since the final health care deal is so close and Brown is vowing to be the 41st vote to block it, all of the tension and national energy in that fight have channeled to the Bay State.
So have Senate staffers, top political consultants from both parties and outside organizations that are pumping money to air television advertising at unprecedented levels.
Democrats are invoking Sen. Ted Kennedy's memory - and the signature health care reform he championed over his career. And given the state's political leanings, everyone thought the Democratic primary would essentially elect Kennedy's successor.
Observers on the ground tell TPMDC the energy is crackling - in part because the state hasn't seen anything like this in recent political memory.
Their Senate races haven't been competitive in more than a decade, and a special election with national attention is almost unheard of.
"Who could imagine in the aftermath of Sen. Kennedy's death that any Republican could slide into that vaunted seat," said Paul Watanabe, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.
That's one reason Vicki Kennedy's fundraising appeal raised more than half a million dollars yesterday - and will be followed soon by an appeal from Ted Kennedy Jr.
Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. John Kerry will rally the grassroots tomorrow in hopes of generating enough enthusiasm to drive Democratic turnout Tuesday. Republicans have deployed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has been making his own push and campaigning at Coakley's side.
A Senate aide who soldiered North to help with the race told TPMDC that it's "not a doom and gloom scenario" that's being portrayed by the national media.
But Republicans think they have a fighting chance, especially by tapping into the frustration over government spending and appealing to health care foes.
And there are big implications beyond health care in a critical election year.
If Coakley loses, it "will be staggeringly difficult for the Democrats to go on offense in 2010," said Mary Anne Marsh, a Boston-based Democratic consultant.
Top senators from Chris Dodd, Al Franken, Pat Leahy and Majority Leader Harry Reid passed the Kennedy appeal on to their national fundraising lists. It reportedly raised more than $520,000 and crashed Coakley's campaign servers last night. That cash is added to the $600,000 MoveOn raised for Coakley over the last few days.
Brown raised more than $1.3 million in a one-day "moneybomb" earlier this week.
See all of our coverage of the special election collected here.
Late Update: The Daily Caller reports that Brown raised $1 million per day online this week.
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cube3u
January 14, 2010 12:17 PM
Political reporting makes me crazy sometimes. There is no benefit associated with a bunch of WDCers to sit around a table in Boston eating doughnuts and chatting to one another. The same thing applies to the over-reliance on television commercials in the fractured viewing environment we have now--cable and even those, like me, who rely extensively on the internet and just how many of us are absolutely nauseated by the TV ads to begin with.
The grump will now stop typing....
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JohnMcCSF
January 14, 2010 12:19 PM
Those polls were bad news for Brown
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Schmed
January 14, 2010 1:42 PM in reply to JohnMcCSF
So is having Rudy come out to stump for you.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:30 AM in reply to Schmed
Another confederate ucker that thinks 9/11 didn't happen on GWB'S WATCH......I THINK PROSTATE MASSED HIS STUFF
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Sailormarlowe
January 15, 2010 10:04 AM in reply to JohnMcCSF
Big Scott Brown
He goin' down
To Washingtown.
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JohnMcCSF
January 14, 2010 12:21 PM
Current Intrade Line - Coakley 83, Brown 16
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Schmed
January 14, 2010 1:40 PM
Good Lord! That picture of Ted suggests that he was taking too much carotene!
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twoviragos
January 14, 2010 6:17 PM in reply to Schmed
Thank you! I wasn't sure if it was Senator Kennedy or an Oompa Loompa.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:32 AM in reply to Schmed
Ja mama's nutts
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cambridgeMR
January 14, 2010 3:12 PM
I live in MA. I'm taking Tuesday off of work to volunteer for the Coakley campaign so I can get as many Democrats in the voting booth as possible. I suggest you do the same if you live in MA -- it's worth the loss of a vacation day.
When I was telling all of my friends to vote via email, one of them wrote back:
"A chance to vote for real sounds like fun."
Massachusetts Democrats have been yearning to cast a vote that matters. Now they have the chance; make sure that every single Democrat you know gets into the voting booth this Tuesday.
Volunteer for phone banks here Organizing for America! You don't have to live in Massachusetts to make phone calls to GOTV. Phone calls are the most effective way to get people to the polls on election day.
We can do this. There is no way in hell that I'm going to be represented by an empty suit tea-party conservative Republican for the next six years.
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davewtf
January 14, 2010 11:00 PM in reply to cambridgeMR
I also live in MA. Just today I was discussing this with fellow concerned voters at work. We all agreed that we were originally planning on sitting this one out because the Democrat always wins.
However, we are all now planning on voting to try to make sure.
How could we possibly give Ted Kennedy's seat to a Republican?!?
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:29 AM in reply to davewtf
Good for you clown!
I felt the same way until I realized that another confederate mofo may have a chance.
Not here not tuesday
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fiddystorms
January 14, 2010 4:57 PM
You don't understand... even if Coakley wins... it's still a huge loss! The fact that it's this competitive is bad news for Socialists all over this Country. Imagine if you people were honest about telling other old school Dems (the blind vote) that your platform mirrors that of the Socialists platform. I wonder how old school Dems would feel about backing Socialists?
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JNagarya
January 14, 2010 6:42 PM in reply to fiddystorms
Huh!? Are you for real?
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Barry Champlain
January 14, 2010 8:37 PM in reply to fiddystorms
You know what's great?
Before the 2008 campaign, nobody under the age of 50 knew what the fuck "Socialism" was.
It was the most ill-conceived smear in recent political history. Destined to make Republicans look like the irrelevant old dinosaurs they are.
But with zero pushback from the Obama campaign or the media, all the flying claims of "Socialist!" managed to get a nice toehold, so that now, low-information voters* (* = "fucking morons") know it must be something BAD.
You know. Like the Yankees, if you're a Red Sox fan. Like that. "Them".
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Silence
January 15, 2010 8:15 AM in reply to Barry Champlain
Nah. The socialist title is out. Obama sold himself as a socialist, but he lied about that too. In recent months, he's proven himself to be the golden boy of crony capitalism.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:34 AM in reply to Barry Champlain
Most republipigs can't spell socialism....ask sarah ALL OF THEM PALIN.
I can gaurantee she will reply 'ALL OF THEM"
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JadeZ
January 14, 2010 11:28 PM in reply to fiddystorms
i think you should take to the street with one of those signs you wear over your head and can be read on both sides that says, "even if you win you lose".
bring some pencils and a tin cup.
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Moloko+
January 15, 2010 8:12 AM in reply to fiddystorms
Winning is losing. Republicans and Orwell - happy together.
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fiddystorms
January 14, 2010 5:20 PM
Coakley's Greatest Hits:
1. October 2005: The curling-iron toddler rape case. Coakley brings no charges, then lets the rapist out on no bail.
2. The “Pedophile Priest” Case, 1995-2002: Coakley cut secret deal in 1995 that allowed Father Geoghan to molest again.
3. Gerald Amirault, who spent 18 years in prison for something he did not do, the last three at the express insistence of Martha Coakley
4. Man gets fined for hitting a pedophile caught in the act. Pedophile walks free.
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JNagarya
January 14, 2010 6:45 PM in reply to fiddystorms
Dick Cheney -- at your cherry-picking again!
And, of course, making it up.
Meanwhile, Brown has 100 per cent positive rating from the far-right luntic fringe NRA -- against the will of the vast majority of the MA electorate.
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mrCurmudgeon
January 14, 2010 7:22 PM in reply to fiddystorms
And yet STILL Scott Brown manages to be more evil that her. Go figure!
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ilovebacon
January 14, 2010 9:07 PM in reply to fiddystorms
slander.
while we're at it... brown had a secret homosexual affair with former nj gov. (who resigned) mcgreevey. the two were last seen on the nude beach at sandy hook fellating each other.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:31 AM in reply to ilovebacon
Tell him to shave next time....he's nasty maybe him and sarah will make out and have a real healthy baby.
TEABAGGERS SUX!
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JadeZ
January 14, 2010 11:32 PM in reply to fiddystorms
i worry about you little fellow,
so fixated on underage sex and rape............
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barbara63
January 14, 2010 7:24 PM
About that last item from The Daily Caller -- The Daily Caller is a very conservative website. How do you know it's true?
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willia451
January 15, 2010 5:24 AM
Not worried. Two things.
1. Fear. The drumbeats of a Republican potentially taking over Teddy's seat (and everything that implies) have gotten through. Watching the reaction is a bit like watching ants after you've kicked over an ant hill.
2. Now that the "cadillac" tax deal has been done relative to Health Insurance Reform (the dems submitting to worker / Union demands; more or less) Union and worker organizers should be "all in" for Coakley now. Before? Probably not so much.
1 + 2 should equal 10+ % win for Coakley.
If it does not, it might be that Coakley herself is to blame. She has not exactly been the most energetic campaigner to come along; for sure.
She needs to throw down a couple of "5 Hour Energy" shots. And lay off the oatmeal.
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ramboorider
January 15, 2010 7:00 AM
I just hope to hell the Dems have a plan to delay the swearing in and rush health care to the floor and get it passed in case Brown does win. Because its definitely a strong possibility at this point. The irony of health care going down because the Dems couldn't hold Ted Kennedy's seat are overwhelming. Another of those, "I gotta move out of this insane country" moments that I thought were over once Bush got out of town.
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Lucieann
January 15, 2010 7:03 AM
willia451, I would have to agree with you. I can't imagine people even thinking, let alone allowing a Republican, or a Tea-bagger taking over Teddy's Senate seat. However one thing strikes me, being from New England, as well, that MA has had numerous Republican governors that Teddy has often campaigned and campaigned vigorously against, yet they won. it doesn't seem riding on the coattails of Kennedy really means all that much, unfortunately. And it would be the fact that Coakley, herself could be to blame, for running a lacklustre campaign, which no doubt could have been the victim of that Kennedy legacy and the fact that everyone was so sure she'd win in a 95% Democratic state. This should be a lesson to all campaigns everywhere.....don't take anything for granted. I do think however when all is said and done, that Massachusetts will come back to their senses, and Coakley will be the Senator.
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willia451
January 15, 2010 8:44 AM in reply to Lucieann
Agree. When confronted with the polling numbers in a recent interview, Coakley stated:
"No. We DON'T know that we are behind. The polls have been all over the place."
While that is true, the converse is also true.
If you don't know that you are behind, you also probably don't know if you are ahead. Or by how much. Either way.
Her statements thus far, at least the ones reported, have indicated a level of willful complacency that, while they might not ultimately prove to be fatal, need to be a lesson to the Democrats just in general.
Don't let your guard down, even in your own backyard. Stay energetic, engaged, with a good ground game, organize and FIGHT. Especially if it's a Special Election. Where turn out is notoriously low.
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bluestatedon
January 15, 2010 7:57 AM
"We all agreed that we were originally planning on sitting this one out because the Democrat always wins."
If you and your friends are representative of Massachusetts Democrats in general, then you deserve to lose to Brown. I'm not sure you guys deserve democracy.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 9:47 AM
Better come out in vote because if one of Rush Limbo's peps wins, then Mass loses.
40 yrs of dem control the republipigs will stop life.
They don't care if you die, as Alan Grayson stated "The GOP plan for health care is die, die quickly"
Mit Romney ucked up the mandatory mess in MA and this slob willdo more.
Maybe cut you folks welfare bebefits or unemployment.
COME OUT AND VOTE your future depends on this.
The grande ole party will not bring $$$$$$$$$$$$ back to the state or much less fight for money for the middleclass.
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concerned parent
January 15, 2010 9:49 AM
Oh how this country is going the way of Rome. We all squabble about issues that seem to defy logic. Once Americans were for helping their own, now hedonism has a tight grip chocking our progress. One day we are going to wake up and our country no long be a super power because we are too dumb to do what is right.
All of these "-isms" thrown about like they were candy at a parade. When really we should just change our country's name to United States of Greed and Stupidity. What really is the point to having a country other than to leach off our fellow citizens?
Lets just divide the country up into 2 countries, red states on one side, blue on the other and be done with it.
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:27 AM
The confederate party has a wild dream again........what about the freaking latino/latina vote
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dem4life
January 15, 2010 10:29 AM
THEY ARE COUNTING THE RURAL/SUBURBAN VOTE WHAT ABOUT THE URBAN VOTE.
STOP THE MADNESS! DON'T GET YOUR JABALL'S WET IT'S NOT HAPPENING
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ilovebacon
January 15, 2010 1:50 PM
It's true. The media DESPERATELY--repeat, DESPERATELY--wants a horse race. So they've got it. (By the way, the latest Suffolk poll that gave Brown a 4 pt. lead, gave loser Dem. candidate Corzine, in NJ, a 9 pt. lead less than a week before the election. He lost by about 5.)
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FredF
January 15, 2010 2:29 PM
From Nate Silver:
"The Rasmussen poll shows the Democrat, Martha Coakley, up by 9 points. The Boston Globe poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire survey center, has her up by 15. But the PPP poll actually has Scott Brown up, by 1 point. All three polls are of likely voters.
In addition to these, there's also a rumor of a Boston Herald poll that shows Coakley up by just 1, a supposed leaked Republican internal poll that had Coakley up by 11, and some older polling (including one of likely voters) that showed Coakley up by margins ranging from 26 to 31 points. But we've already got our hands full with Globe, PPP, and Rasmussen, so let's focus on those for now.
....
Are you seeing a consistent pattern here? I'm not. All of the polls have positives and negatives. And any of them could be right."
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