Ehlers' Retirement Sets Up Open-Seat Race For GOP

Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI) officially announced today that he is retiring from Congress, after 16 years in the House.

"Each of us should recognize that the world doesn't depend just on us and I've been there 16 years now and that's more than enough time for most people and I've accomplished a great deal," Ehlers told the Associated Press. "I just felt this was a good time to go."

Ehlers' district could be a competitive race for this fall, though it does have a Republican lean. John McCain only carried it narrowly with 49% of the vote in 2008, but before that it generally voted for Republicans by stronger margins. The district is a long-time Republican bastion, and decades ago was represented by Gerald Ford. (The district briefly went to the Democrats after Ford became Vice President, due to the continuing scandals over Watergate, but went back to the GOP in 1976.)

A Republican source argued to us that the 49% McCain result was not the best measure of the district, due to the fact that the McCain campaign had abandoned the state of Michigan during the final weeks of the 2008 election. Instead, the source pointed to George W. Bush's 59%-40% win here in 2004, as an example of what happens when both parties are actively campaigning in the state.

Potential GOP candidates, according to the source, include state Sen. Bill Hardiman, Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (who is currently running for Lt. Governor), former Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus, and state Sen. Mark Jansen. Already, state Rep. Justin Amash is in the race, having launched his campaign yesterday before Ehlers's retirement was official.

"We're very confident we're gonna hold on to this seat," the source said. "It's a pretty Republican district. Ehlers has always won with over 60% of the vote. We're confident that whoever ends up being the Republican nominee will have similar proportions."

No Democratic candidates have immediately emerged. The Grand Rapids Press reports that potential Dem candidates include former state House Speaker Pro Tempore Mike Sak, state Rep. Robert Dean, and former state Rep. Steve Pestka.