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Extreme Makeover! Facing Daunting Electoral Odds, Lincoln Swerves Right

Brian Beutler | February 5, 2010, 10:23AM

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Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

AR-SEN, Barack Obama, Blanche Lincoln, Democrats, Environment, Health Care

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Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) hasn't been what some might call a "model Democrat" this Congress. Behind every vote she casts and word she utters in public is a simple--and for her terrifying--political reality. Up for reelection in an extremely unfriendly electoral climate, and deeply unpopular among her constituents, Lincoln has been guarding her right flank for a year, putting her at odds with the bulk of her colleagues on issue after issue, and requiring considerable arm-twisting (and concessions) from leadership to win her support for major initiatives, including health care reform back in December.

But in just the past few weeks, Lincoln's MO has changed. When health care reform was the issue driving national politics, and Democrats were in "must do" mode, Lincoln laid low. Almost comically so--dodging reporters via privileged exits, and through the Capitol's labyrinthine hallways. Now, with Washington preparing for what could be a watershed mid-term election in November, Lincoln has found her voice...and it's an increasingly conservative one!

On health care, she took a more substantive turn right. After voting for the Senate bill in December, she probably hoped she could put the controversial issue behind her, or at least have something to run on. But when Democrats lost their supermajority in the Senate, and suddenly needed to find a clever way around a final filibuster, Lincoln was first out of the gate saying she wouldn't help.

"I am opposed to and will fight against any attempts to push through changes to the Senate health insurance reform legislation by using budget reconciliation tactics that would allow the Senate to pass a package of changes to our original bill with 51 votes," she said in a statement. "I will not accept any last-minute efforts to force changes to health insurance reform issues through budget reconciliation, and neither will Arkansans."

And just this week, when President Obama addressed Senate Democrats, Lincoln used the opportunity to ally herself with the GOP and distance herself from the "extremes"...sitting in the room with her.

"Are we willing as Democrats not only to reach out to Republicans but to push back in our own party for people who want extremes, and look for the common ground that's going to get us the success that we need not only for our constituents but for our country in this global community, in this global economy?" she asked Obama. "Are we willing as Democrats to also push back on our own party and look for that common ground that we need to work with Republicans and to get the answers? And it's really the results that are going to count to our constituents. And we appreciate the hard work that you put into it."

When the League of Conservation Voters--a far cry from Greenpeace--put Lincoln on its "Dirty Dozen" list of environmentally unfriendly legislators, Lincoln took umbrage. But instead of letting it slide, she blasted the influential interest group.

"Threats from extremist groups from outside our state tell me I'm doing something right for Arkansas," she said.

Much of this is posturing--signaling to voters back home that she's not like other Dems. But each episode confirmed what many liberals and political observers already knew: That Lincoln has responded to the political maelstrom she faces back home not by standing tall with her party and running as a populist (think Sherrod Brown), but by transparently obstructing her own party's agenda.

Has it worked? Not in the slightest. A recent survey by the firm Public Policy Polling finds Lincoln dramatically behind her likely Republican challenger John Boozman by a staggering 56%-33%.