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Poll: Blanche Lincoln Trails GOP Opponents -- And So Do Other Possible Dem Candidates
Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)
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A new survey of Arkansas by Public Policy Polling (D) reaffirms that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in serious danger this year. Furthermore, it also says that Democrats would have a tough time even if they replaced her with a new candidate.
Republican Rep. John Boozman, who is poised to officially enter the race soon, leads Lincoln by 56%-33%. A Republican candidate already in the race, state Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker, is ahead of Lincoln by 50%-35%.
Other Democrats were tested in place of Blanche Lincoln, and would still have a tough race. Boozman edges out Gov. Mike Beebe by 44%-43%, leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by 51%-36%, and leads Rep. Mike Ross by 48%-37%. Baker ties Ross at 39%-39%, trails Beebe by 46%-38%, and leads Clark by 45%-39%.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Bill Halter -- who has been urged by some liberals to run against Lincoln in the primary, trails Boozman by 53%-30%, and trails Baker by 45%-34%.
PPP communications director Tom Jensen writes: "A look inside the health care issue gives a good indication of how Lincoln has managed now to get it from all sides. 61% of voters in the state oppose the President's plan, and among those folks Lincoln's approval rating is just 8% with 79% of them expressing the belief that she's too liberal. But she's managed to antagonize a lot of the people who support the Democratic health care plan as well- 36% of them think she's too conservative and her approval with them is just 57%. Barack Obama's at 95% with that same group of voters."
Late Update: The new Rasmussen poll has Lincoln trailing Boozman by 54%-35%, and behind Baker by 52%-33%. In addition, state Sen. Kim Hendren leads Lincoln by 51%-35%, businessman Curtis Coleman is ahead of her by 50%-34%, and businessman Tom Cox is ahead by 50%-36%. This poll did not test other hypothetical Democratic candidates.
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Rich in NJ
February 2, 2010 11:15 AM
She still needs to step aside or face a primary challenge.
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Africanlivedit
February 2, 2010 12:18 PM in reply to Rich in NJ
Really NEEDS to. Not like she won't have a lobbyist job lined up afterwards!
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davcbr
February 2, 2010 12:56 PM in reply to Rich in NJ
She has painted herself into a corner. What she needs to do is concede to a replacement and vote for the people that backed her.
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jana47
February 2, 2010 11:19 AM
Blanch thinks she's getting kicked out because she supported Health Care, it's just the opposite according to some in Arkansas
Blanch is getting kicked out because she played games with health care and Arkansas is one of the Poorest states and has significant poor who don't have health insurance
Unfortunately she choose what she thought would get her "RE-ELECTED_vs DOING RIGHT BY THE POOR PEOPLE AND THOSE WITHOUT HEALTH INSURNACE IN ARKANSAS
FOR THAT WE SAY GOOD RIDDANCE
SHE SHOULD STEP A SIDE AND LET SOMEONE RUN WHO REALLY CARE ABOUT THE DISADVANTAGE IN ARKANSAS VS. HER PRIORITY BEING RE-ELECTION AND HAVING HAD TO BE TALKED INTO VOTING TO SUPPORT HEALTH CARE AT THE 9TH HOUR.
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tchamp77
February 2, 2010 11:35 AM in reply to jana47
Yes but in the meantime she should vote strongly with progressives.
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EastWest
February 2, 2010 11:41 AM in reply to tchamp77
Dream on. She'll do what Democrats always do when they get hammered in the polls. She'll run as far right as she can, as fas as she can.
These people believe the demonstrably untrue MSM/Fox News meme that liberal policies lose elections.
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dtOZONE
February 2, 2010 12:02 PM in reply to jana47
Except no one does any better, except for two candidates probably more conservative than her.
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tgh86
February 2, 2010 11:19 AM
Great. How much has the DNC blown on this loser?
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Dogger
February 2, 2010 1:43 PM in reply to tgh86
When the DNC asked me for money in January, I asked whether they could guarantee that sell-outs like Lincoln, Baucus and Ben Nelson wouldn't get any of my money. They couldn't, so I told them I'd be saving my cash for Grayson and other progressives.
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Barry Ragin
February 2, 2010 11:22 AM
Perhaps she should move further to the right.
That might help.
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ohyeathatsright
February 2, 2010 11:23 AM in reply to Barry Ragin
Love your icon.
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Shoto
February 2, 2010 11:23 AM
Anyone placing bets on what firm she starts lobbying for after she gets kicked out of Congress? From cushy gig to cushier gig.
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Walter Mitty
February 2, 2010 11:32 AM
That's three senate seats lost - N.Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, along with the Massachusetts loss, Reid in trouble and Illinois probably going to choose banker-turned-politician Giannoulias who will get killed by Kirk. And Toomey will probably beat Specter. So that's seven seats lost come November.
And potential pick-ups are struggling, Carnahan has fallen behind and is now attacking Obama, Ayotte smokes Hodes, Dems are going to choose the lame duck Fisher over Brunner in Ohio, Meek is so bad that most Dems want Crist to switch parties.
53-47 here we come.
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Dorn76
February 2, 2010 11:39 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
Good, maybe we'll stop acting like we need 60 votes to do anything.
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human
February 2, 2010 11:41 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
You are without a doubt the most pathetic defeatist chicken little on the face of the earth. Did you ever read a collection of your old posts? Quite the profile in cowardice.
All is lost, let's just pack it in 10 months before the election. I can't imagine you've ever run for public office yourself, because I just assume you'd concede defeat before you even declare your candidacy.
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FreeRider
February 2, 2010 11:46 AM in reply to human
I totally agree. Mitty is pathetic and revolting in his defeatism.
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EastWest
February 2, 2010 11:51 AM in reply to human
Quick question, obamaman: How often has WalterMitty been wrong?
Faux News didn't like the message being sent, and they cut away from Obama's drubbing of Congressional Repubs. Seems like a case of same song, different verse coming from you here....
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oleeb
February 2, 2010 11:42 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
In all these cases we see that wishy washy corporate Democrats are getting their heads handed to them. Why? Because they aren't doing anything for the people. That would require them to start acting like real Democrats instead of cheap whores for servicing corporate America's needs.
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dtOZONE
February 2, 2010 12:04 PM in reply to oleeb
Paul Hodes is a wishy washy corporate Dem?
News to me.
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Backcountry
February 2, 2010 11:32 AM
She is such a wimp. She deserves to be thrown out.
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oleeb
February 2, 2010 11:40 AM
Another classic case of the typical political whore being too stupid to understand what is going on. Trying to ape the Republicans is ALWAYS a losing strategy. Why vote for a Democrat who acts and votes like a Republican when you can vote for the real thing? What morons these corrupt corporate Democrats are! The only way to keep the seat in Democratic hands is to primary her and run a real live Democrat instead of a faux Republican like her. Only be offering a contrast to the rotten policies of the Republicans can the Democrats hope to win in Arkansas and elsewhere. I pray for her defeat as she is no asset for Democrats. I just hope she's defeted in a primary so we can have a shot of having a real Democrat take her place.
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human
February 2, 2010 11:44 AM in reply to oleeb
Agreed, these DINOs never, ever learn. The more they move to the right, the greater their margin of defeat.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
February 2, 2010 12:45 PM in reply to oleeb
Dude, if you think there's a snowball's chance in hell of a "real" Democrat replacing her in Arkansas, I want some of what you're smoking. Yeah, Clinton did great there. In the fucking eighties. That was then, this is now. The people who made the state viable for Democrats in those days have died, moved away or just gotten stupider as they got older.
I hates me some Blanche because she's a gutless snivilling coward and a political nincompoop, but I'm under no illusions that she'd be doing better if only her politics were further left. She'd just be losing with dignity and, possibly even panache. Not in Arkansas. Nor in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Wyoming, Idaho. Not any time soon.
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wbgonne
February 2, 2010 1:02 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
At least there would be one less asshole undermining the Democratic party from within. Blasting "liberals" and "the left" only makes it harder and harder for Dems to pass anything meaningful and it adopts the GOP frame which means, basically, the Dems have lost the war. Good riddance, Blanche. Addition by subtraction. And I'm not sure what you're getting at, comparing now to the 80s, but if you're suggesting the country is more Conservative now, you are dead wrong. As for Arkansas, I'll the Arkansans speak to that. But better to lose promoting your principles than win by undermining them. And since the only conceivable purpose for Republicrats is that they can win where real Dems can't, and since Lincoln is going to get clobbered anyway, then her candidacy has no purpose. Let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Blanche. Hard.
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mrut
February 2, 2010 1:05 PM in reply to wbgonne
Arkansas is much more conservative now than it was in the 80s.
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wbgonne
February 2, 2010 1:06 PM in reply to mrut
Please explain.
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onecrappyusername
February 2, 2010 4:32 PM in reply to wbgonne
Hi! I live in Arkansas.
I think you can understand a lot about Arkansas by understanding Bill. It still boggles my mind that a man as sharp as he, who had the experience of going to georgetown/oxford/yale, could retain such an immense, unabashed good ol' boy charm - and have it be authentic. He was able to bridge the gap between people who voted logically, to whom he would speak (at great length) about policy minutiae, and people who vote based on who appealed to them on a personal level - the old "person you would have a beer with". He knew on an instinctual level how to get people to like him.
The problem is that every other democrat in the state looked to him - an anomaly, an outlier, a freak of goddamned nature - as a model for long-term electoral success. They thought they could work the middle, keeping enough moderates and independents to win elections. They were right, for a while, but neglected the fact that such a strategy is unsustainable by anyone without Bill's gifts. Lincoln is exhibit A - I doubt she could get a dog to like her at this point. She's incapable of appealing to either side of any debate, and winds up alienating both.
I truly believe it is possible for a progressive to win in arkansas, but it really has to be someone special. It has to be someone who can make a case for liberal values, liberal morals, not liberal policy. Any dem who runs on policy alone is pissing in the wind.
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wbgonne
February 2, 2010 4:48 PM in reply to onecrappyusername
Yes, that what I thought. Clinton was a unique talent and the Dems are mistaken to think his DLC-Conservadem strategy is a winner elsewhere. And even if it was then, now is different. The other commenter said Arkansas is "more conservative" now than in the 80s. Do you agree with that?
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onecrappyusername
February 2, 2010 6:06 PM in reply to wbgonne
Hard for me to say since I came here in the 90's. I've got half-baked thoughts about dixiecrats, their kids leaning conservative....but ultimately I really think the terms "conservative" and "liberal" are absurdly over-generalized bullshit, as if they're trying to classify everyone into groups just to divide them. Uh, hope that helps?
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wbgonne
February 3, 2010 8:13 AM in reply to onecrappyusername
I agree. I'd add that, since the country HAS been conservative for 40 years it would be surprising if very many people, given the choice between "liberal" and "conservative," declared themselves liberal. For that reason, in addition to those you've mentioned, such label are counterproductive and are employed by the Repubs to drown out the actual policy implications of positions. Much easier to scream LIBERAL! than to explain why Americans should die in the gutter without health care.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
February 2, 2010 7:41 PM in reply to wbgonne
My point is this: "I just hope she's defeted in a primary so we can have a shot of having a real Democrat take her place."
There is no shot. It's magical thinking. I'm against magical thinking. It's my most substantive beef with many in the left--the conviction they share with the right that they can just wish desired states of fact into existance.
Ummm . . . unless of course 'Leeb meant "take her place in the primary and at least go down to defeat with integrity and a message that's more respectable than 'pick me, pick me, I'm fowl that smells fishy! Yum!.'" In which case, totally agree, apologies and a big Emily Latella "never mind."
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wbgonne
February 3, 2010 8:17 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Well, yes and no. I think it is a temporal thing: No, a "real" Democrat may not be elected statewide in AR in the next 5 years. But the Dems must lay the groundwork for future success. Soemtimes, the future comes quickly and you must be ready. My beef with the Republicrats and their boosters is that, by undermining core Dem principles, these Republicrats actually make it harder to elect real Dems down the road.
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mrut
February 2, 2010 1:04 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Absolutely right.
Just do the right thing now, Blanche! You're going to lose the election no matter what. Give your people HCR so you have something good to point at when you leave.
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farnsworth
February 2, 2010 11:44 AM
Wow, I am losing Democratic support because I betrayed the Democratic Party. Maybe it will help me if I betray the party more.
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The Decider
February 2, 2010 11:58 AM
Liberals like Lincoln and Nelson are all in trouble. Heh, heh!
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traitorjoe
February 2, 2010 12:06 PM
Agree with Farnsworth, Oleeb and Obamaman. Lincoln gives the voters a terrible choice: running as a faux Right Winger or the real Right Wingers. Can we name anyone who has gone hard Right and actually won an election recently?
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dtOZONE
February 2, 2010 12:11 PM in reply to traitorjoe
Rep. Jim Marshall comes to mind.
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precisioncontrol
February 2, 2010 12:15 PM
LOL no surprises there. Neither Democrats nor Republicans want to vote for a fake Republican. She's a tool and I'll be happy to see her out of the Senate. She's no leader and a poor rep for her state.
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cmaukonen
February 2, 2010 12:17 PM
Another corporate whore going down to defeat. Gee...can't imagine why. Just because most of the people in the country want to hang the bankers and insurance people by their gonads. Are pissed as hell because the Democrats in congress are too chicken shit to pass any regulatory reform or in the pockets of Wall Street or both.
C
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xargaw
February 2, 2010 12:44 PM
Primary her! She is a Republican in a Donkey suit.
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rbe1
February 2, 2010 1:13 PM
No sympathy for this person. Under the proverbial political bus.
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VictorLH
February 2, 2010 2:28 PM
Best news I've seen all day.
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Max Thrax
February 2, 2010 2:59 PM
The bottom line on these white bred Heartland states is that they will never send Progressives to Congress. Never. They're going to have to suffer a whole lot more before they ever take a good look at themselves, but more likely, they'll be looking for someone to blame. They cannot admit error and the entire culture for the last 30 years has been built upon patting these people on the head and telling them how super, duper great they are....the 'real' Americans.
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wbgonne
February 2, 2010 3:07 PM in reply to Max Thrax
When things go wrong people need somebody to blame. If you are in power and you don't provide an alternative, then YOU get blamed.
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