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Poll: Rubio Has Double-Digit Lead In Florida GOP Senate Primary

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Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)

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The new Rasmussen poll of Florida has former state House Speaker Marco Rubio taking a big lead over Gov. Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for Senate.

The numbers: Rubio 49%, Crist 37%, with a ±5% margin of error. Back in December, Rasmussen had the two of them tied at 43% each. A Quinnipiac poll from last week gave Rubio a narrower lead of 47%-44%, but this also showed clear movement in Rubio's favor compared to the previous numbers.

Rasmussen's analysis points directly to the likely cause of Crist's problems: "Crist's fortunes appear to be tied in part to national unhappiness over President Obama and his policies. Many conservatives began rebelling against Crist when he became one of the few Republican governors to embrace Obama's $787-billion economic stimulus plan last year. The national Republican party establishment endorsed Crist early on, but a number of prominent national party conservatives have since announced their support for Rubio."

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February 1, 2010 12:32 PM   

Are you referring to Charlie Crist-Scozzafava?

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February 1, 2010 12:40 PM   

Well, since the primary isn't until August, maybe Charlie is hoping the right-wing surge will have abated by then. Otherwise, he's looking to get whipped.

And, no, he's not going to switch to the Dems.

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February 1, 2010 1:31 PM    in reply to felix

Do you know that for a fact? The instinct for self-preservation is strong (Specter). It's clear that Crist can't win the GOP nomination, but he could certainly win a general election. So it'll be either (I) or (D) for Crist, and soon, if he really wants to be a Senator.

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February 1, 2010 1:39 PM    in reply to jenesq

I don't doubt that he might go independent.

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February 1, 2010 12:44 PM   

We'll see, but I doubt Rubio will be the nominee. Maybe in Oklahoma or Alabama, but he's too conservative for Florida.

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February 1, 2010 12:47 PM    in reply to runfastandwin

Not in a Republican year he's not. And not against a boneless chicken like Kendrick Meek.

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February 1, 2010 12:48 PM    in reply to runfastandwin

Yeah, but he's not too conservative for the Florida GOP, which is the point.

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February 1, 2010 12:46 PM   

I think he's going to go indie. He could carve out the middle 40% leaving 35% to Rubio and 25% to Meek.

I think this could be the reverse Lieberman. With Dems voting strategically for Crist realizing that Rubio is so toxic.

Crist could also frame himself as "Florida first" not "Party/ideology first" and could claim the center saying as Governor he did what he thought was best for Florida regardless of how it would look politically. he knew the stimulus spending was right for Florida even if the Republican ideologues didn't like it.

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February 1, 2010 12:50 PM   

Wait for the Crist-is-a-closet-gay whisper campaign to seal the deal for Rubio.

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February 1, 2010 2:10 PM    in reply to tchamp77

that's already done been out there, no? you don't think that's a factor in what's driving this?

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February 1, 2010 12:54 PM   

If Rubio's lead gets any bigger they won't need Katherine Harris.

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February 1, 2010 12:54 PM   

It's still several months out, but Rubio will likely pull off the win.

Florida's ostensibly a swing state, but look at Mel Martinez. If Rubio wins the primary, he's the favourite to win the general against a candidate as weak as Meek.

Crist had better withdraw and start running as an independent. For the sake of Florida. And the nation.

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February 1, 2010 12:58 PM   

Rasmussen's analysis points directly to the likely cause of Crist's problems: "Crist's fortunes appear to be tied in part to national unhappiness over President Obama and his policies."

Bullshit. It's not "national" unhappiness with Obama's "policies". At most, nationally there is unhappiness with slow pace of implementation of those policies. The policies themselves, when presented without partisan spin, enjoy majority support (see recent polling on public option, repealing DADT, federal support for jobs, etc.)! Nobody who actually supports Obama's policies, but is unhappy with the pace of implementation, is going to vote for either Crist or Rubio.

Many conservatives began rebelling against Crist when he became one of the few Republican governors to embrace Obama's $787-billion economic stimulus plan last year.

This I can believe. It's a conservative reaction, not a national one.

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February 1, 2010 1:29 PM    in reply to Boidster

Right, this is about Republicans, not about the general public. I thought I saw somewhere that Crist would win a general election in FL, just not the GOP primary...so that rather shoots Rasmussen's theory down. At most, this indicates that self-identified Republicans tend to be more wingnutty than in the past...not a news flash.

Crist may become #60 for the Ds.

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February 1, 2010 2:21 PM    in reply to Boidster

Rasmussen assmussen. I wouldn't trust that slimy SOB as far as I could throw his big bald head.

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February 1, 2010 2:35 PM    in reply to Boidster

Rasmussen's analysis points directly to the likely cause of Crist's problems: "Crist's fortunes appear to be tied in part to national unhappiness over President Obama and his policies."

Bullshit. It's not "national" unhappiness with Obama's "policies". At most, nationally there is unhappiness with slow pace of implementation of those policies. The policies themselves, when presented without partisan spin, enjoy majority support (see recent polling on public option, repealing DADT, federal support for jobs, etc.)! Nobody who actually supports Obama's policies, but is unhappy with the pace of implementation, is going to vote for either Crist or Rubio.


here, here!

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February 1, 2010 1:50 PM   

Are John "Boner" and Charlie "Christ" competing for the most unnatural skin color in the Republican population? These men are bizzare! And ridiculous.

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February 1, 2010 2:23 PM    in reply to glogrrl

At least Crist comes by it more naturally, living in a sunny clime. Put another way, unlike Boner, he doesn't keep his head where the sun don't shine.

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February 1, 2010 1:53 PM   

For more on-the-ground coverage of Crist vs. Rubio, please visit http://bit.ly/l6KKw

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February 1, 2010 2:03 PM   

As a Floridian, I think this is insane!!! Anybody who is even thinking about voting for Marco Rubio has gone off the deep end...and has forgotten to look to see if their was any water in that pool. Rubio is nothing but a roboton to the infection of the outsider tea-baggers who know nothing about the people of the state of Florida. I do not think Charlie Crist's problem is President Obama, I know the President is well-liked here in Florida, at least in my corner of the state and other parts where I do have people I talk to. And I don't think Rasmussen is polling people who are not Republicans. Republicans supposedly have to sign a "purity clause" to qualify as "true conservative Republicans....well, that explains a lot.....Crist is moderate, and the moderate voice the state of Florida needs.....please, we have been embarrassed enough by politics in this state, and a vote for Rubio will make us the laughing stock we can't hope to recover from~

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February 1, 2010 2:10 PM    in reply to Lucieann

"a vote for Rubio will make us the laughing stock we can't hope to recover from~"

Sadly, I don't think that makes a difference to most "conservatives" or Republican voters these days.

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February 1, 2010 3:24 PM    in reply to glogrrl

No difference at all. Rubio is going to be the Republican candidate. The only questions are what will Crist do about it, and what will we.

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February 1, 2010 2:05 PM   

Ach. Citing Rasmussen for anything? Why bother?

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February 1, 2010 2:13 PM   

One's cute, the other's orange. And the third is, well, meek.

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February 1, 2010 3:17 PM    in reply to Lalo35adm

Rubio is young and handsome ..... just like Scott Brown ..... people project a lot of things on to these types of guys that they would not project onto someone like Dennis Kucinich. That is just how the human brain works folks .... so look out!

And why if Meek is so weak is there no thought of running someone with some charisma on the Dem side? There is plenty of time to get a better plan. Anyone?

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February 1, 2010 10:53 PM    in reply to hollywood

Unfortunately, Dan Gelber dropped out to run for Attorney General.

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February 2, 2010 12:27 AM    in reply to Lalo35adm

Damn, if you had an avatar of Bush, I guess his nose would grow off of the screen and start running in a marathon back to Texas.

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February 2, 2010 11:41 AM    in reply to Lalo35adm

Is that avatar Reagan or Bush?

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February 1, 2010 2:26 PM   

Good news for Rubio and the Tea Partiers is bad news for the GOP. Crist, a Scott Brown Republican, would have cruised to a general election victory. Rubio is very much a risk.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

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February 1, 2010 3:42 PM   

Will Charlie Crist get divorced if he loses?

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February 1, 2010 3:53 PM   

I read somewhere that if Gov. Crist became a Democrat he could be the Democrats 60th vote in the senate. Well after seeing the 60 Democrats in action this last year I don’t think they could pass legislation with 90 votes. So what is the point? Now before you all go crazy---I am a yellow dog Democrat and was just reflecting on what I have seen.

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February 2, 2010 11:44 AM    in reply to benny 4 facts

I totally agree with you Benny. It hasnt been republicans that have stopped legislation and stabbed Obama in the back, its been senate democrats. Any and all blame for lack of action in Congress falls on the spineless gutless senate centrist democrats.

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