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Poll: Specter Leads Sestak By 15 Points In Dem Primary
Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)
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The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania Democrats shows Sen. Arlen Specter continuing to lead his primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak.
The numbers: Specter 51%, Sestak 36%. Last month, Specter led by slightly more, at 53%-32%, but the month before that was closer at 48%-35%. Specter switched parties last year, after 28 years as a Republican Senator, because his support for the stimulus bill had served to guarantee his defeat in the GOP primary. Sestak has been attempting to parlay distrust of Specter among Democrats into a successful primary challenge, but the incumbent has been holding on.
From the pollster's analysis: "Specter's support has ranged from 46% and 53% in the earlier polls. Incumbents who fall below 50% on a consistent basis are viewed as vulnerable, but this is the second month in a row where he's crossed that critical line. In the five previous Rasmussen Reports polls on the race, Sestak's support has ranged from 32% to 42%. He was most competitive in October when the numbers showed Specter with 46% of the vote and Sestak at 42%."
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oblio
February 9, 2010 11:26 PM
I think Sestak is pretty much toast -the question is if the Democratic base is motivated enough to beat hard-right tea-partier Toomey in the general election against a Republican turned Decomcrat who who has obviously turned left to please his base.
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Solomon Drek
February 10, 2010 12:42 AM
Another factor will be moderate Republicans and independents. In the past they voted for Specter but will they do so this time around.
I think Specter will do well with Philly suburbanites, many of them Republicans, who tend to be moderate and have voted for him
in the past. A decent turnout in SE PA should help Specter and other Democrats, especially since a heavy turnout in western and northern portions will help Toomey and Republicans. There is also a governor's race which should help turnout as well.
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Homefries
February 10, 2010 5:47 AM
Spector has fought harder for Democrat initiatives than a lot of other Demos. He burned a lot of Republican bridges to get to where he is today.
If the so called "Democratic base" want to stay home, then that's their choice. Just don't complain, like the Reagan Democrats eventually did, when stuff doesn't go your way down the road. God knows whether we can handle another bout right now of total Republican domination, but then again we always seem to want to do things the hard way in this country. What will be, will be.
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