
A new Franklin and Marshall poll of Pennsylvania has a lot of bad news for Sen. Arlen Specter, with the incumbent Democrat and former Republican viewed unfavorably by his state's voters and trailing his longtime nemesis, Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey, among the likely general election voters.
Among all registered voters, Specter is viewed favorably by only 32%, with an unfavorable rating of 45%. Only 25% said he deserves re-election, with 63% saying it is time for a change. Among those who say he doesn't deserve re-election, the most commonly listed reasons are his long time in office, and his party-switch.
The only good news for Specter is in the Democratic primary, in which he leads Rep. Joe Sestak by 33%-16%. But in the general election, the horse-race numbers show just how much the current enthusiasm gap has become destructive for the Democrats. Among all registered voters, Specter leads Toomey by 33%-29%, and Toomey leads Sestak by just 25%-22%, with very high undecideds in both cases. Among the more important category of likely voters, Toomey leads Specter by 44%-34%, and Toomey leads Sestak by 38%-20%.
Maritza
February 24, 2010 9:29 AM
9 months ago Specter was ahead of Toomey.
Fast forward and now Toomey is ahead of Specter.
We have 9 months to change that around.
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JohnW1141
February 24, 2010 9:35 AM
Electing Toomey would be like electing Santorum minus the religious fanaticism. I have a bad feeling about this election.
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Acewrap
February 24, 2010 10:22 AM in reply to JohnW1141
What else was there to Santorum?
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vandinem
February 24, 2010 10:07 AM
I want a third option. Specter is unreliable and not always truthful. Who needs another Lieberman? Pennsylvania has trouble providing quality candidates, it seems, in either party.
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human
February 24, 2010 10:58 AM in reply to vandinem
Sestak is an excellent candidate, he just doesn't have the statewide name recognition. I'm hoping he can pull it out in the primary because he'd have a much better chance of winning than Specter--who so obviously changed parties and positions in a desperate attempt to retain his seat. He should have just retired.
BTW--Sestak is a better candidate than either one was in Mass., or many other states for that matter.
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Thornhill
February 24, 2010 10:37 AM
Once the primary is over and Democrats see that Toomey is the second coming of Rick Santorum, they'll rally around the Democratic nominee.
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brendancalling
February 24, 2010 11:20 AM in reply to Thornhill
no they won't. a lot of them, especially young voters, will stay home because they'll be forced to choose between a republican and a republican.
I live in Philadelphia, one of the democratic strongholds of this backwards state. Specter is unpopular here, and despite his recent spate of endorsements, he is a weak candidate. People see it as insider, opaque politics, and they're not prepared to line up and vote for the guy, like we did in 2006 facing the threat of more Santorum and GWB. It's not 2006 anymore. People want change. Putting a donkey suit on Arlen Specter no more makes him a democrat than it makes him a real live burro.
it's sad really, but not surprising given the mindset of the PA Democratic party,
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Metzengerstein
February 24, 2010 11:37 AM in reply to brendancalling
That makes sense, but what about Sestak? Is he no good, like a DINO? I really don't know, but surely voting for Sestak in the primary would seem like an alternative to the opaque, insider politics thing. Do the people you talk to say anything about him?
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Peter Principle
February 24, 2010 11:45 AM in reply to Metzengerstein
Sestak is pretty good, but he picked a bad year to try for the Senate. It's going to be tough to hold his congressional seat -- which is one of those districts (i.e. moderate Northeastern suburb) the Dems have to have if they're going to hold on to their House majority.
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Thornhill
February 24, 2010 11:49 AM in reply to brendancalling
I live in Philly too and work in PA politics.
On paper PA is the simplest state for Democrats to win because of their huge margin, and the fact that Democrats rarely vote Republican at the top of the ticket (Specter has been one of the last exceptions). It's merely a turnout game, and Specter is the last person that should be underestimated. Once the primary is over and he (or maybe Sestak, but that's unlikely) can focus his attacks on Toomey, the poll numbers will quickly change.
What's also going to help is that Dan Onorato will run a strong campaign -- he'll help turnout voters.
And there aren't many young voters in PA -- its electorate is the second oldest after Florida.
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MarciaJ720
February 24, 2010 10:39 AM
I'm getting the feeling that "older" congress members are going to be a big target in 2010. Just see what McCain is having to do (try to rewrite his own history).
Then again, I believe in term limits. Like they would ever vote term limits for themselves.....
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Pete Bilderback
February 24, 2010 11:00 AM
The Democrats would have been better off is Specter never switched parties. Right now Specter would be in a losing primary fight with Toomey, with the party establishment siding with Specter. Instead, the Democratic party establishment is wasting its resources on a guy whose political career is over.
And to that the fact that getting to an illusory 60 seat "filibuster proof" majority was nothing but a headache for Harry Reid, and the switch looks even more unfortunate.
Sestak might be able to beat Specter in the primary anyway, but the Democrats would have been better off if there had been a robust competition among a number of candidates in the primary so that they could have sent the strongest possible nominee against Toomey.
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Pete Bilderback
February 24, 2010 11:02 AM in reply to Pete Bilderback
"better off if Specter never switched parties" that is.
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human
February 24, 2010 11:12 AM in reply to Pete Bilderback
I agree, the whole magic number 60(which they didn't have for half of last year anyway) created more problems than it was worth. This is one of them.
I hope voters wake up to the truth about Toomey and come to their senses. He could actually be worse than Santorum, more like Tom Coburn--which would be a complete nightmare.
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brendancalling
February 24, 2010 11:14 AM
this was so utterly predictable and predicted.
PA is throughly fucked for 2010.
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maildls
February 24, 2010 11:19 AM
As a PA voter from the northwestern suburbs of Philly,
( in other words, where these things are decided ), I would say that
this polling data reflects people who are expressing frustration. There
is simply no way Pat Toomey is going to get elected once the campaign
begins. I would also never bet against the Arlenator. I am not being a
cheerleader for the Dems, I am simply reflecting years of experience
with PA politics. Toomey is considered a looney.
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Pete Bilderback
February 24, 2010 11:26 AM in reply to maildls
There is no doubt that Spector is what you might charitably call a "survivor." But he is also an incumbent and when only 25% of voters say you deserve to be re-elected, it's not good.
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serenity now
February 24, 2010 11:20 AM
Strange headline on this story...when you look at the actual poll, it appears that Toomey's support is waning.
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Peter Principle
February 24, 2010 11:41 AM
It took us 12 freaking years to get rid of that idiot Santorum, and now it looks like we're going to have to spend the NEXT 12 years trying to get rid of his ideological clone, Toomey.
Major bummer for us Keystoners.
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LAB
February 24, 2010 12:03 PM
I think Sestak would be a great candidate. Spector is too old--what with him, Byrd, and Lautenberg, we need some young dems!
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dnegri
February 24, 2010 12:14 PM
This is why they have primaries. But once the primary ends, PA Dems need to not shoot themselves (and the rest of us) in the foot. Support whomever wins the primary. For all his faults, Specter has been a heck of a lot more reliable a Dem than several others that we can easily think of.
Wait till Specter or Sistak start reminding voters that Toomey is the candidate launched by the Club For Growth, the PAC of corporate America. It'll be time to remind voters that the seat is "the people's seat" and not "corporate America's seat".
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Joe Monster
February 24, 2010 12:23 PM
I'll be voting Specter.
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Carter
February 24, 2010 12:42 PM
In this year of anti-incumbency fever, there is no way Specter can win. His biggest problem is with Democratic women who remember that he supported Clarence Thomas for the SC & basically painted Anita Hill as a whore & liar in the confirmation hearings. Add to this that he was probably the biggest senate mover in killing Prez Clinton's national healthcare effort.
Sestak, who has little name recognition outside his district, would be a strong candidate against RW nut Toomey. He appears & acts senatorial, is generally progressive (unlike Specter who changes positions with the tide if it benefits him) & has core beliefs.
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JohnW1141
February 24, 2010 4:00 PM
I wish we had a stong candidate from western Pa in this Senate race; having both Senators from the east might be a handicap.
I've said since the start, as others here have said, that Sestak lacks name recognition across the state. He has a good biography which could carry the day for him, but that anme recognition thing is tough. Hopefully he's spending a lot of time around the state meeting people.
I think Specter's age is a problem for him too.
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EvanR
February 24, 2010 4:54 PM
It seems like Toomey has been fairly smart about repackaging himself as a guy who is focused on debt and spending and "waste", (issues that are primarily animating both the Tea Party activists and the more moderate independents) as opposed to pushing divisive social issues to the forefront, a la Santorum. People closer to the ground and media markets in PA could better confirm if that's how Toomey is coming across. But I don't think you could've taken a long-cultivated defection by one of the last moderate Rs and just blown it off. Sounds like a lot of pointless post-hoc second-guessing to me. If the argument is that Specter is hobbled by being so obviously desperate to do anything to hold on to his seat then the Democrats spurning him might easily have pushed him to pander back hard to the right -- doing that might not have worked for him, but look how reliable he's been to Dems once he switched and needed to clear the D primary. I know virtually everyone on here regards the senate health care reform bill as about the worst legislation the body's ever produced (and I'm not thrilled by lot about it, too). But Dems needed Spector's vote to even get that much through. With a smaller majority Democrats would have automatically done everything bolder, stronger, more progressive, via reconciliation? Or would have just gone and eliminated the filibuster entirely? Don't be so sure. The idea you can get a comprehensive bill through via reconciliation without having half of it carved out by the parliamentarian is wishful thinking...I'd say the Dems were lucky to have sixty votes while they did. Did it make repulsive pseudo-Dems like Ben Nelson too pivotal? Sure. But there are certain things you can't do without sixty votes. Spector's defection was on balance a good thing.
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Measure for Measure
February 24, 2010 5:20 PM
Polls this early are close to meaningless.
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DugFmJamul
February 28, 2010 12:24 PM
The good people of Pennsylvania who answered that poll have more integrity concerning local politics and greasy politicians than some people on this thread are willing to give them!
To me Benedict Arlen Specter represents the model grease-ball career politician that would ignore his oath of office and the Constitution whenever it would be politically advantageous to him personally. He also stands against everything I would admired in a trustworthy public servant, putting his political career above the people's business is just one of Specter's many character flaws.
It's nice to know the majority of the good people of Pennsylvania agree with me and will vote against Benedict Arlen Specter whenever possible.
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