
For almost a year now, every time budget reconciliation has been in the headline, Republicans have been there to warn that they'll clog up the process by offering dozens--perhaps hundreds--of amendments on the floor, eating up valuable floor time, and forcing Democrats to take tough votes on controversial issues.
Most recently, Politico quoted a Republican aide laying out the threat: "While debate time is limited, the number and content of amendments are not. This approach to moving health care has a lot of problems, but one Democrats haven't yet focused on is the number of bad votes they'd have to take to get there. Amendments don't have to be germane (well, they do, and if they're not, Dems can move to set them aside, but we can move to waive that; either way, there's a vote)."
Conversations with reconciliation experts suggest that the minority can in fact flood the zone with amendments--but it also shows that Democrats can circumvent them if they want to.
Let's say the Republicans offer 100 politically charged amendments to the reconciliation bill, none of which are germane. Democrats can move to waive all of them, and, as the Republican aide said, the minority can force a vote on the motion to waive.
But it's important to remember: Reconciliation is intended to be an expedited process. It allows for 20 hours of debate, after which all amendments must be disposed of in a so-called "vote-arama." So all of those amendments (or motions to waive the amendments) must be voted on in rapid succession.
The grey area lies in exactly how Democrats can force an end to the charade once its clear that the Republican tactics are dilatory. That's uncharted territory--but, as one expert points out, the chair in the Senate--a.k.a. Vice President Joe Biden--has almost unlimited power to make rulings so long as 50 members are willing to go along with them. And if Republican tactics were to go over the line, Democrats would theoretically be able to put a stop to them.
As former Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove has pointed out, both the Republican strategy, and the Democrats' way around it, are far outside the traditional uses of the reconciliation process. But, hey, if both sides are exploring the limits of the rules anyway, who knows what will happen.
chimpale
February 26, 2010 3:48 PM
Use the Force, Harry.
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Brownbagger
February 26, 2010 5:01 PM in reply to chimpale
Love you I do.
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Docb
February 27, 2010 11:09 AM in reply to Brownbagger
51 votes is a majority--that is the rule! That is cramming nothing down but following the rules! which repub used 80% of the 22 reconcilitian bills that passed!
This could shed some light on the intractable no brainer of the republican meme:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/02/26/liberals.atheists.sex.intelligence/index.html?hpt=C2
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RKT
February 27, 2010 6:46 PM in reply to Docb
You do realize that majority rule is a socialist, Nazi, un-Constitutional, un-American, treasonous, freedom-hating, un-Christian, aetheist, devil-worshipping, Democratic doctrine. If you're not careful we'll loose Dick Cheney on you.
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 9:04 AM in reply to RKT
I hope you were being snarky, cause if you aren't then republicans would be those socialist, Nazi, un-Constitutional, un-American, treasonous, freedom-hating, un-Christian, aetheist, devil-worshipping troglodytes you were referring to - they've used it 16 times out of the 22 times it has been used.
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MaximusNYC
February 26, 2010 5:24 PM in reply to chimpale
Explore the studio space!
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Brownbagger
February 26, 2010 5:48 PM in reply to MaximusNYC
Understand this I do not.
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Doc Magnus
February 26, 2010 6:17 PM in reply to Brownbagger
It means "I want more cowbell!"
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Brownbagger
February 26, 2010 7:06 PM in reply to Doc Magnus
Helps not that.
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LarsThorwald
February 26, 2010 7:45 PM in reply to Brownbagger
Fear leads to hate. Hate leads to anger. Anger leads to smoking. Smoking leads to spray tans. Spray tans lead to orange skin. Orange skin leads to Boehner. Boehner leads idiots.
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JimmyBobby
February 26, 2010 7:53 PM in reply to LarsThorwald
Good logic. So lemme get this straight - all we have to do is...?
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glblank
February 26, 2010 8:20 PM in reply to Brownbagger
It basically means throw the kitchen sink at them, use every tool you have and be sure that each is top weighted to do the most damage to whatever it hits.
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Brownbagger
February 26, 2010 8:27 PM in reply to glblank
Understand now whatever do I.
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Value4America
February 27, 2010 12:32 PM in reply to chimpale
Why aren't the Dems hammering home the point that a full bill has already passed both the House and the Senate with 60 votes?!? The reconciliation process will only be used to tweak the final product into a more acceptable form.
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ottis
February 26, 2010 3:50 PM
Are they allowed to bring concealed weapons?
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Doc Magnus
February 26, 2010 6:18 PM in reply to ottis
Only reconcealed weapons.
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LarsThorwald
February 26, 2010 7:45 PM in reply to Doc Magnus
Zing!
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Hyla Brook
February 26, 2010 6:35 PM in reply to ottis
Might be one way to end the deadlock. I bet Coburn is packing, maybe some of our guys should be doing the same thing too.
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dmacgregor
February 27, 2010 4:10 PM in reply to ottis
Only if they hold the vote in a National Park!
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 3:50 PM
The R's are bluffing. They'll look like complete jackasses (not that they don't already). Call their bluff.
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JZ
February 26, 2010 3:59 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
They've got members who hold up extending the unemployment and health benefits for people who've been out of work for more than a year. They'll go to the mat for this. They'll lose, but they'll do so in the most ugly way imaginable.
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 4:18 PM in reply to JZ
Again, call their bluff. Harry should hold the Senate in session over the weekend. Make a big announcement citing why he's doing it. It's a tailor-made issue to expose the R's for what they are. They'll cave in no time.
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fourstick
February 26, 2010 5:00 PM in reply to JZ
So what? Let them? They should have had to filibuster at least 25 pieces of legislation up to this point. Seriously -- if they want to stand in the way of getting anything done, let them. Just make sure that the populace knows exactly what is going on.
I, frankly, would loved to have seen them try to filibuster the original jobs bill when 10% of people are out of work. The threat of a filibuster shouldn't be a filibuster in and of itself, you should physically make them do it. Can Mitch "saggy bags" McConnell really stand up there for 36 hours and ask silly questions or read from Encyclopedia Britannica? I'd love to see it.
If they want to resort to dirty tricks to keep things from being voted on, then let them pull out the dirty tricks and then blast their asses in the media for it. Democrats need to get tough. Until they get the "Fuck you, get out of my way, this is good for the country and needs to be done" attitude they will make things easy for Republicans -- they have to this point.
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gharlane
February 26, 2010 5:16 PM in reply to fourstick
Bub...bub.... but.... Harry sez that would slow Senate business down to a crawl and they Wouldn't Be Able to Get Anything Done!!!!1!..... oh, wait.... nevermind....
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oskieoskie
February 26, 2010 8:52 PM in reply to fourstick
That would just let them play to their base, slobbering slackjaw rightwingers to whom political hacks who drone platitudes to deliberately stall Obama's agenda are national heroes.
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 9:08 AM in reply to JZ
oh so true!
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glblank
February 26, 2010 8:27 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
They are trying to stay relevant. Being Rethugs, they just might slip and propose something that has merit and the Dems could accept it, appear to be more bipartisan, similiar to when Gas Oil and Petroleum filibustered their own amendments to hold up the original vote. f history repeats the Newts of the party will try to bog down proceedings such as when Newtron tried to shut down government and got his ass kicked when Clinton stood up and said fuck you.
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 9:11 AM in reply to glblank
That's what I'm hoping for. I really want them to cause the entire government to go into lock-out mode and nothing but emergency services available.
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barbara63
February 27, 2010 11:16 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
Absolutely right, man's best friend. Should the Dems fear the GOP? No. But they should fear the Democratic voters who will abandon them in November if they don't pass HCR.
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Indie Pro
February 26, 2010 3:57 PM
Should Democrats Take Republican Reconciliation Threats Seriously?
if history stands, they will
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Bill From PA
February 26, 2010 4:00 PM
mans be, they'll fellate a jackass if they thought it would work for them.
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 4:11 PM in reply to Bill From PA
It won't. It will blow up in their faces. Remember the government shutdown of 1995? How'd that work out for them? The only way to put a stop to this nonsense is to call their bluff. The first time might be painful, just like it was in 1995, but it put a stop to their nonsense then and it will do so again. Moreover, it will give the public a good hard look at what they're about.
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expat46
February 26, 2010 4:06 PM
vote-arama! Sounds like fun. Let's have a bill-a-palooza or a vote-arama.
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jdb316
February 26, 2010 4:10 PM
If the Democrats do go the reconciliation route (and I'm still not sure they actually have the stomach to do so), they'll have to beware of Republicans tacking on amendments that ask for funding for Gitmo or other issues that fit into the Republican talking points. Even if they are completely irrelevant to the bill being discussed, reconciliation means that they'll at least get on the floor. Any Democrats who vote against them will be subject to campaign ads that say they're weak on national security, don't want to protect America, etc. And since those ads will surely fit into the existing political narrative, they'll have problems.
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Skybolt
February 26, 2010 4:35 PM in reply to jdb316
If Obama was deployed into the field along with every Democrat in the House and Senate, and they personally hunted down every terrorist on the planet and killed them with their hands and teeth, and then marched on China and forced the disbanding of the entire Chinese military, Republicans would say that the Democrats are weak on national security.
The Republicans have three things they say about Democrats:
1) My opponent is gay.
2) My opponent is a Communist.
3) My opponent is a terrorist.
That's all (from the Republican perspective, being weak on national security is a form of being gay). So there is no point in any Democrat adjusting their behavior in order to avoid being called a gay Communist terrorist, because Republicans will call them that no matter what they do.
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Cool Blue Reason
February 26, 2010 5:05 PM in reply to Skybolt
Obama's bloody adventures in Pakistan and China only underscore his cannibalistic, godless roots. He seemed a little too comfortable over there, not like a real American. Those Asiatic children idolize him, and their leaders bought into the Nobel Peace Prize hype. They won't make the same mistake again.
Now, Obama and his band of gay communist cannibals are coming back to cut the defense budget by 90%! They're going to disband the U.S. military and replace them with bands of inner-city youth and illegal immigrants patrolling the streets as Obama's personal defense force! And blue-helmeted UN shock troopers will be administering the global carbon tax, now that the Chinese have been brought to heel!
[Message truncated following the author's rapture.]
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gharlane
February 26, 2010 5:23 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
He is Risen? Again? And I didn't even see any driverless cars on the freeway this afternoon.
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Impishparrot
February 26, 2010 8:19 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
Might I submit my favorite 'Rapture' joke?
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 9:16 AM in reply to Impishparrot
Excellent!
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Brownbagger
March 1, 2010 12:44 PM in reply to Impishparrot
This is not a "joke" is it? It actually happened, right?
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Impishparrot
February 26, 2010 8:07 PM in reply to Skybolt
Humbly, I offer my favorite quote as it might be yet another helpful analogy:
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The Podge
February 26, 2010 4:36 PM in reply to jdb316
Yes, there are costs to reconciliation, and the non-germane amendment possibility is one of them (not the biggest one by a long shot either). But the costs of not using reconciliation (and therefore failing to deliver anything whatsoever on the largest, most public Dem-led domestic initiative since the last time we tried this in the early 90s) are so so so much higher. The day Brown was elected reconciliation became politically inevitable.
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cwnidog
February 26, 2010 4:45 PM in reply to jdb316
If they waive, it won't a vote for or against, just not to act upon the amendments as part of the bill under consideration.
Of course, the rethugs will call that a vote against or for (whatever's most damaging), but the amendments can always be described as attempts to stop the functioning of the Senate by a hyper-partisan minority who are unwilling to relinquish power after losing two elections.
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 5:03 PM in reply to cwnidog
You need to know how to play the game. The bigger news story is always the one that plays to the media narrative of the time. The current narrative is "government is broken". Having the Dems shitcan some dopey amendment that has nothing to do with healthcare doesn't fit that narrative and will be ignored by the media. Having the R's offer dozens of irrelevant amendments in an attempt to gum up the works plays directly to the current narrative. That's the story with legs. Also, make sure you schedule the vote for a Monday. That way you can stretch it thorough the whole week's news cycle.
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cwnidog
February 26, 2010 6:51 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Exactly. Like the psychopath whose girlfriend jilts him for another guy. He kills her vowing "If I can't have her, than no one can!". Portray the GOP in just such a light.
Don't hold the vote on a Monday. Schedule 10 hours of debate each on Saturday and Sunday, with the vote at 4:30 PM Eastern on Sunday - sure to make the news, especially if it interrupts football. Would they interrupt football for it? Probably not, isn't Football on FOX?
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fourstick
February 26, 2010 5:08 PM in reply to jdb316
Fine. The Dems can then run campaign ads stating that they got more people health insurance, made it cheaper in the long run, allowed for competitive insurance coops in a number of states, and did all of that without any Republican support.
I, (insert name of congressman), passed a bill that helps the American people, or my opponent, who voted to keep the same system that is bankrupting our country and leaving people to die without insurance.
I think that would be a far more effective campaign ad.
Seriously, get this shit done. It's stupid to worry about ridiculous ramifications like this one, when the attack ads are already going to slander Democrats anyway. Stop being pussies. Shit and get off the pot on health insurance reform and trumpet the victory!!!
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Thornhill
February 26, 2010 4:18 PM
Considering that this will probably be the last time in the next 20 years that there are the votes to push through major health care changes, and that political damage of taking up this issue is already done, it's time to go for broke, bring back the public option, and ram this thing through.
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Tommy Douglas
February 26, 2010 6:32 PM in reply to Thornhill
Couldn't agree more. Go for broke and pass the public option.
Why not pass something that is BOTH popular with Independents and your base?
DO IT and we'll rally the troops for November.
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heraldsquare
February 26, 2010 4:19 PM
Re: reconciliation: Um, COBRA benefits? That's where the name comes from, right?
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benjoya
February 26, 2010 4:32 PM in reply to heraldsquare
yes, the "R" in COBRA stands for "reconciliation."
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Cal Gal
February 26, 2010 4:51 PM in reply to benjoya
And the B stands for Budget.
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bvd
February 26, 2010 6:30 PM in reply to Cal Gal
And the "A" stands for Assholes.
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Cool Blue Reason
February 26, 2010 4:46 PM in reply to heraldsquare
Indeed... COBRA = Continuation of Benefits Reconciliation Act, I believe.
I say Harry Reid needs to get on board with PENUMBRA -- the Painfully Executed, Notwithstanding the Understated Medical Benefits, Reconciliation Act
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Cool Blue Reason
February 26, 2010 4:49 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
My wonkery fell short this time -- it's actually the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. Almost makes sense the other way...
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DKDC
February 26, 2010 4:29 PM
Add another arrow to the Dems quiver - schedule the "vote-a-rama" just prior to the Easter/Passover recess, forcing the Pubs to choose between further stalling or being home for the Easter Bunny-Elijah. It worked last time, before Christmas.
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 4:42 PM in reply to DKDC
Now we're talking. There's a simple way to stop Republican obstructionism. Make. Them. Pay. A. Price.
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calbearinillinois
February 26, 2010 8:37 PM in reply to DKDC
As long as you aren't counting on Lieberman as vote 50 (assuming Biden is 51) because sure as shit he'll find some reason he can't be there the entire week before Passover.
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CommieBlaster
February 26, 2010 4:29 PM
OBAMACARE - YEAR IN REVIEW
This Brand New, 5-Star Hilarious and Shocking Video provides a Fast-Paced Look at the No-Lie-Too-Big, Socialist Ideologues Who Now Run Our Country.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rv7aW3NF7w
MUSTÂ WATCH!Â
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agio
February 26, 2010 4:30 PM in reply to CommieBlaster
Spam somewhere else, troll.
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Brownbagger
February 26, 2010 7:16 PM in reply to CommieBlaster
Sorry, I'm due back on planet Reality. Kind regards, shitforbrains.
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Clavis
February 26, 2010 4:34 PM
What's that? There's an opportunity for Republicans to dishonestly demagogue this issue on TV for weeks and weeks, and for Democrats to weakly capitulate, cede the media battleground and do whatever makes Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham happy?
Three guesses what happens.
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SavannahGA
February 26, 2010 4:41 PM
In this time of all possible times, we are relying on the toughness of Harry Reid to face down the Repub Senate frontline?
May the gods forfend.
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brianm0122
February 26, 2010 4:45 PM
Call their bluff, have the debate, on live TV, and make them show the country how they are working against their own constituants interests, and for the interests of the big insurance companies.
I really don't know why this hasn't been more a part of the Dem's talking points. Insurance companies have got to have the worst approval rating than every other industry.
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Joe Monster
February 26, 2010 4:46 PM
Do it. Cheat. Steal. Lie. Circumvent. Lance. Spindle.
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Cal Gal
February 26, 2010 4:49 PM
TPM's article about Saint Ronnie being the patron saint of reconciliation needs to be sent to EVERY Democratic member of Congress AND every MSM outlet.
I really, REALLY want to Stretch Gregory asking Eric Cantor what what Reagan did is not good enough for Obama.
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SavannahGA
February 26, 2010 5:07 PM in reply to Cal Gal
Yeah, I wish MTP had a more alert host, too.
But lest we forget.....Stretch Gregory was an extremely eager-to-please dancer behind MC Rove. That performance was all in the game, all for beltway in-laughs, right, Dave?
IMO it said all there is to say about the grand telejournalism of one David Gregory.
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fourstick
February 26, 2010 5:13 PM in reply to SavannahGA
Rachel Maddow should be in charge of that show, imo. She's not afraid to ask tough questions and will keep asking the same damn question over and over and over until she gets and actual answer. Kinda like how she slaughtered that GOP lackey a couple of weeks ago:
RM: "You didn't vote for the stimulus bill, yet you went to the ribbon cutting ceremony of two projects paid for by the stimulus funds that you didn't vote for. How do you respond?"
GOP Dipshit: "Well, I think the important thing here...ahem..."
RM: "HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THIS HYPOCRISY!!!" *Reaches into GOP Dipshits chest and pulls out his cold, bleeding heart*
Or at least that's how I remember it anyway.
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Donald from Hawaii
February 26, 2010 9:19 PM in reply to SavannahGA
How dare you insult the great David Gregory, you liberal pinko commie worm!
Just for that, you're going to have to endure yet another hour of John McCain as Mr. Gregory's exclusive guest on this Sunday's Meet the Press.
Now, STFU, if you know what's good for you, or next week's exclusive guest will be Dick Cheney.
;-)
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Andrew
February 26, 2010 4:57 PM
Republicans are already conflating reconiliation with the nuclear option. Ergo deploy the nukes. No amendment votes required.
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Cool Blue Reason
February 26, 2010 5:22 PM in reply to Andrew
Agreed. If they're going to call it the nuclear option, we may as well nuke them for real and kill the 60-vote barrier.
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akatla
February 27, 2010 10:45 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
Right on. Sure as shit, the only way anything will get done is to do it without them. If Dems don't grow a pair of hairy huevos pretty goddam soon, they are done for. If Repubes take over, they will goosestep all over this fine country and break every "rule" in the book.
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chriss1519
February 26, 2010 5:20 PM
I wonder if Republicans have considered the parliamentary procedure of targeted assassinations. For instance, Senate Republicans could introduce a motion to the floor to kill their Democrat colleagues. If Democrats threaten to block or vote down these bills, Senate Republicans could simply open fire and take out the opposition. I estimate that at least 10 Democrat Senators would have to be brutally murdered on the Senate floor to give Republicans a majority, though there's no reason why theoretically they couldn't bump off the lot. At that point, passage of the Democrat's Health Care package would be pretty much DOA.
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Stevenln
February 26, 2010 5:21 PM
The congressional Republicans are in contempt of congress. Hell, they are in contempt of all the rest of us. Please, Please people show them the love of a wise mommie and send them off to bed without their suppers. Let them cry themselves to sleep.
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oleeb
February 26, 2010 5:22 PM
The premise of this article is just assinine. Really.
No the Democrats shouldn't be worried about what the enemy is going to do regardless. The Democrats should be worried that they've accomplished nothing in this Congress and so must get off their cowardly asses and start passing some legislation that is meaningful to the common people of this country. That, and only that, is what Democrats should be worrying about.
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Bwakfat
February 26, 2010 5:26 PM in reply to oleeb
Yep, they use this partisan bickering as an excuse not to pass anything
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slb
February 26, 2010 6:00 PM in reply to oleeb
Well: they should be worried enough to lay plans to counter it when the Republicans try to carry out their threats, as they almost certainly will. But certainly they shouldn't be afraid of it; they should be more afraid of what will happen if they don't manage to get some form of HCR passed. They should be afraid not only for what will happen to them in the 2010 election, but for what will happen to the country over the next decade or two if we don't start trying to change the insanity that we call a health care policy.
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oleeb
February 26, 2010 7:57 PM in reply to slb
You're right except they're a bunch of pusillanimous pussyfooters just like Wallce used to say they were and they don't have the balls even to defend themselves from what they know is going to happen. It's amazing what cowards they are.
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AnswerFrog
February 26, 2010 5:27 PM
I think I speak for many here when I say to the GOP:
"Bring it on, motherfuckers."
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oleeb
February 26, 2010 5:52 PM in reply to AnswerFrog
Many citizens perhaps, many grassroots Democrats perhaps, but certainly not anyone in the Democratic leadership and that is the essence of the problem. Can you even imagine anyone of them standing up to anyone for any reason? I can't. Neither can the Republicans and that's why they keep threatening, cause they know the Democratic leaders are a bunch of pussies.
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FreemanW
February 26, 2010 5:32 PM
They're in contempt of humanity.
My favorite part of this entire clusterfuck is the Reprobates always claiming that under any Democratic plan, health care costs will increase and the elderly who depend on Medicare and Medicaid will have less coverage and higher costs and grandma will die.
The Reprobates will guarantee all of those events occur, and they'll do it with a shit eating smile.
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DaddyD
February 26, 2010 5:35 PM
So, what;'s the difference. R's have already slowed progress in congress to a snail's pace. And now their threatening to slow progress in congress to a snail's pace. BFD. Next.
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salame
February 26, 2010 5:55 PM
It's their freakin m.o.
They are pretty sure they have this President boxed up, in a corner and that he's afraid to make a bold move (can't imagine why - but I digress). Anything that gets them in front of a camera, a chance to throw red meat to their growing, gnarly, blood thirsty audience, will be used.
Man up, dems, it's time to show some spine, balls, moxy, whatever - just pass the damn bill.
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salame
February 26, 2010 5:57 PM
It's their freakin m.o.
They are pretty sure they have this President boxed up, in a corner and that he's afraid to make a bold move (can't imagine why - but I digress). Anything that gets them in front of a camera, a chance to throw red meat to their growing, gnarly, blood thirsty audience, will be used.
Man up, dems, it's time to show some spine, balls, moxy, whatever - just pass the damn bill.
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hoppycalif2
February 26, 2010 6:10 PM
Well everyone knows that when you have a 41 to 59 vote majority, as the Repubs do, their threats have to be taken seriously, After all if the voters hadn't wanted the Democrats to give it all up for the Repubs they wouldn't have given the Repubs such a big majority of the votes in 2008.
Just think of all of the harm the Repubs can to to Democrats, controlling all of the reins of government as they do, with their 41 to 59 majority, plus control of the Presidency with McCain in charge.
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subzer0epsil0n
February 26, 2010 7:01 PM in reply to hoppycalif2
http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-treatment/how-reconciliation-would-work
This article does a pretty good job of roadmapping the reconciliation process.
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mans_best_friend
February 26, 2010 6:10 PM
Here's a question for people who are up on all the arcana of Senate rules: Can the Dems make one motion to waive all the Republican amendments, creating a single vote, or do they have to have individual votes on every one?
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cwnidog
February 26, 2010 7:00 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
I seem to remember back in the dark days of W, the GOP were actually able to get motions barring amendments.
But then, I'm getting old and I remember all kinds of shit that never happened. Like a time when Senators actually worked together to give wise consideration to a bill, crafting it to get the most benefit to the people. Yep, I'm ready for the home.
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runfastandwin
February 26, 2010 6:22 PM
Senator Reid, we got your back. The truth is the majority can do whatever it wants, as long as the Vice President goes along. The real issue is, does Senator Reid have the cojones?
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subzer0epsil0n
February 26, 2010 6:40 PM
Pass.
The.
F$^%ing.
Bill.
Already.
All of the talk of difficulty surrounding this bill seems to focus on the troubles in the Senate. But by my calculations, I think the media is overlooking the real issues with the House whip count. Progressives want the public option badly and I am not sure they will give that up without a contentious fight. On the other side you have the Stupak block that will refuse to support the bill unless their abortion language is inserted into the bill, which is a non-starter for House progressives and probably not kosher with a majority of the Senate Dems either.
Methinks this is a bridge too far and the plug will be pulled on HCR sometime in mid-March because progressives feel that they have given up so much to get so far already that I am unsure they want to (or should) concede any more ground. I'm also sure the Blue Dogs are going to say the same thing.
Ironically we have more votes to work with in the Senate with reconciliation. The Dems have 9 votes to give in that scenario. Correct me if I am wrong, but I am counting 4 senators as a NO right off the bat: Nelson, Lieberman, Lincoln and Landrieu. And let us suppose that Lautenberg might be away from the Senate for a few more weeks. All told, that still leaves a possible 54 votes and there might be a few more to vote NO based on procedural objections, bring it close to but ultimately (IMHO) above the VP tiebreaker threshold.
If this bill is going to cross the goal line, it is going to take leadership from the White House. And while yesterday's summit showed a good step in that direction, I am not how much sway they can ultimately have over this Congress.
Here's hoping for the best but bracing for the worst...
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mcc
February 26, 2010 7:32 PM in reply to subzer0epsil0n
Two notes:
1. Although I expect they will fight for it-- as they should-- I don't think the House progressives will treat the public option as make-or-break the way some blogs have. For one thing the House democrats already threatened once to kill a bill over the public option (specifically they signed a letter saying they would vote against the House bill unless it contained a "robust" public option-- it ultimately didn't) then backed off when the votes were not present. (The Stupak crowd seems like a more believable problem.) For another thing the leadership seemed to honestly believe before Scott Brown was elected that they could pass a pseudo-conference bill much like the reconciliation proposal now on the table.
2. Ben Nelson:
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lawschooldropout
February 26, 2010 8:59 PM in reply to subzer0epsil0n
I don't know why more isn't made of the VP tie-breaking vote. Dems seem to concede Constitutional argument to the GOP. It's the same as economics, patriotism, and defense. Dems dare not even state the claim. Yet, here is a golden opportunity to play the Constitutional trump card. Art.1 sec.3 cl.4 of the Constitution, in plain language grants the VP the power to decide outcome in a divided Senate. Per the Constitution, all that is needed is 50 votes in the Senate (assuming support of the VP), not 51 and definitely not 60. This has been the occurred 244 times by 46 VP's with the express authority of the text of the Constitution. I say it's time for the dem's to assert the Constitution.
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n0name
February 26, 2010 6:50 PM
Add the public option already..... Contact your Senators and encourage them to put public option with reconciliation.
Funny the Corporate Republicans from what I understand used reconciliation 22 times in the past including stuffing a medicare-d down the throats of seniors to profit the drug companies....
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sukabi
February 26, 2010 7:01 PM
so how would this be any different from what they've already been doing with threatening to filibuster everything?
Reid needs to sack up and call their bluff... and make the MFer's do a real "you can't leave to pee, eat or sleep filibuster."
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bdtex
February 26, 2010 7:17 PM
There is no other way to do it. Repubs aren't gonna allow an up-or-down vote and the "reset button" is a kill switch. Budget reconciliation is the only way to get it done.
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dswx
February 26, 2010 7:31 PM
Of course if the Repubs should attempt to shut down the Senate, the MSM will unquestionably blame the Democrats. I can hear David Gregory whining about it already.
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ajkrueger
February 26, 2010 7:36 PM
Swish! Just Do It!
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synchronicity
February 26, 2010 7:43 PM
Time for the democrats to force the republicans to follow through on every bit of energy they 'threaten' to use to obstruct. Make them do it. And get the damn job done anyway.
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xargaw
February 26, 2010 7:47 PM
The Democrats have a lot more to fear from their base than from the Republicans. If they fail on healthcare, they are toast in November and any GOP retribution won't matter.
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bluestatedon
February 26, 2010 7:53 PM
Well, now that the Republicans have merely issued the threat of holding their breath and throwing a tantrum on the floor of the Senate, it's time for the Dems to soil their trousers in fear and retreat to their offices, sucking their thumbs and rocking back and forth in their chairs.
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des
February 26, 2010 8:15 PM
The Senate parliemantarian (or perhaps, the VP) can rule that the amendments are being offered solely with the intent to slow the progress of the legislation and are therefore ALL are disallowed. The Republicans will whine and the MSM will scramble to provide coverage of said whining, but it's perfectly legal and according to Hoyle, if not exactly Robert's.
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des
February 26, 2010 8:17 PM
That's "parliamentarian" not "parliemantarian" (an alien, perhaps?).
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glblank
February 26, 2010 8:28 PM in reply to des
Menthol cigarette
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Leftflank
February 26, 2010 8:45 PM
Should we take this question seriously? It's just the continuation of the smokescreen. It started with lil' puppet bush to steer attention away from what they we're doing to us & the rest of the world. It continued with cheney blowing smoke for the last year. Now, it's all about diverting the focus away from the pathetic factual record they are stuck with & hoping no one ever asks them to show their supposed cures for America, complete with an actual workable budget.
Fear, threats, terrorists etc etc. = Big-Ass, Lame, Republican Smokescreen.
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doggie daddy
February 26, 2010 8:58 PM
Bring
It
On.
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dougom
February 26, 2010 9:17 PM
Let's hope the Democrats have the cajones to face down Republican B.S. for a change. I'm not holding my breath, though.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
February 26, 2010 9:40 PM
So are they also going to hold their breaths until they turn blue? Stop up the crappers with paper towels?
I mean, seriously, if they want to explore the limits of the rules and grind Washington to a halt, I say go for it. Nothing like a good constitutional crisis to get Republicans to show their ass to the nation. Watergate, the Big Shutdown, Whitewater/Blowjobgate, all times they massively overplayed their hands and got punished for it.
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baba2nde
February 26, 2010 10:14 PM
"Should Democrats Take Republican Reconciliation Threats Seriously?"
Wrong question.
"Should Democrats charge Republicans with endangering national security?"
Now, there!
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acf_ma
February 26, 2010 10:42 PM
Sure, they should take them seriously. One move is to advance an improvement for our prospects for affordable health care, and the other is a spiteful move to maintain the status quo. What are you going to do, back down in the face of a threat, or stand up for your beliefs?
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billpaustin
February 26, 2010 11:04 PM
The Republicans are acting as if President Obama is an illegitimate President. So the Southern Conservative Senators will just shut the Senate down, rather than do anything to help the first black President.
This complete lack of compromise is what caused the Civil War, and over 600,000 American dead, in 1860.
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edfreeze
February 27, 2010 11:34 AM in reply to billpaustin
I believe this is true completely, and not ever discussed or taken seriously in panel-show discussions. There are some states in this country whose constituents will never support a black president, and whose elected officials will never take orders from a n****r, who, in fact, must go back to those constituents proudly defying anything this n****r would have them do.
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Michael A
February 26, 2010 11:31 PM
Uhhh, I can't believe all these posts and the simple answer is . . . ..
No.
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Cal Gal
February 27, 2010 1:00 AM in reply to Michael A
I was JUST about to say the same thing. But I'm ahead of you local time, so I'll just say, "should Dems Be Worried About GOP Reconciliation Threats?"
No.
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OIC
February 27, 2010 12:56 AM
"Republicans have been there to warn that they'll clog up the process..."
Because they are fucked up hypocrites!
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Demosthenes
February 27, 2010 1:51 AM in reply to OIC
Were the Democrats "fucked up hypocrites" when they filibustered regulatory reform of Fannie and Freddie during the Bush Administration?
Do you think the GOP and Bush should have used reconciliation to overcome the Democratic filibuster, and how do you think the Democrats would have responded if Bush tried this?
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OIC
February 27, 2010 2:36 AM in reply to Demosthenes
NO! NO! Not sure... but they (Dems) are far from hypocrites. And they don't just block/obstruct shit just for the sake of doing so; for political reasons like the GOP hypocrites!
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Dave
February 27, 2010 4:30 AM
Two could play at that game.
I'm sure there are even more controversial or embarrassing issues they could be forced to vote on.
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Cornelius
February 27, 2010 8:44 AM
The only thing you have to worry about is the POTUS. Don't turn your back. Guaranteed he's going to go the reconciliation-lite route and give the American people all the crumbs and call it HCR.
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glblank
February 27, 2010 11:03 AM in reply to Cornelius
I suppose Hillary would have done so..... much better, Obama is doing nothing different than what Lincoln did on the slavery issue and where is the latters name in history. If there is worry, it's congressional Dems and SCOTUS down the road. Roberts, Alito and Scalia are already licking their chops to get at this.
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mjclare
February 27, 2010 9:06 AM
Go back to the main TPM page an look at the picture of Senator McConnell (rhymes appropriately with waddle :-)) and the two senators standing behind him with their chins stuck out.
Now imagine that the two chins have cartoon thought balloons over their heads that say "Don't get sick" and "Die Quickly".
It is a mental image that you won't be able to get rid of :-)
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glblank
February 27, 2010 10:56 AM
If Dems need to worry, its about rounding up votes, BO needs to show he can do top down management and grab some resisting Dems by the short hairs. As far as Nelson, any monies approved for pet projects to buy his vote should suddenly dry up, like Shrub did to his Faith Based bullshit initiatives. Beat Nelson senseless and leave his lifeless carcass hanging over the Dem side of the aisle. If he wants to play reconciler give Loserman what he wants, the spotlight, but then turn up the wattage until he requests waterboarding just to cool off.
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edfreeze
February 27, 2010 11:23 AM
You people are deluding yourselves. There will be no reconciliation. What makes you think the Dems will grow a set of balls? What have they done - name it! - in the past year that might give you an inkling that they might show even a tiny bit of spine? This question of how the Rethugs will react to reconciliation is moot. IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN - DEMS ARE SPINELESS WEAK LOSERS.
ps im not happy about this.
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RKT
February 27, 2010 6:53 PM in reply to edfreeze
Are you SURE Democrats are spineless and weak? Have we eliminated the possibility that it suits them to try to make it appear they are helpless against the big, bad, scary Republicans when they are actually clandestinely serving the same corporate masters as the Republicans? It appears to me they work really, really hard at being ineffective.
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edfreeze
February 27, 2010 11:57 PM in reply to RKT
I agree with everything you say. The only difference between the Ds and Rs is that that Rs are 100% in the pocket of corporate interests, and the Ds are 50-75%. There are some elected Dems who do want to help our country. There are no Rethugs that do.
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lousgirl84
February 28, 2010 7:42 AM in reply to edfreeze
Go troll somewhere else and peddle that bullshit to someone who cares.
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edfreeze
February 28, 2010 4:39 PM in reply to lousgirl84
lou - I am NOT a troll - I am someone who cares! But I don't have my head up my ass, I have two eyes and can see. Everyone here is laughing and giggling and squealing at how miffed and impotent the Rs will be when we pull reconciliation on them. It's a nice fantasy, but the Ds have given no indication they've got the guts to pull it off. This is not trolling, it's REALITY. I'm not a sheep, my eyes are open! Or is anyone who critisizes them Dems automatically a troll? Like Greenwald and Digby? Welcome to the real world, sorry you don't like it. Fuck I don't like it.
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edfreeze
February 28, 2010 4:41 PM in reply to edfreeze
lou - see the posting RIGHT BELOW ME! talk about counting your chickens!
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Knothead Jake
February 27, 2010 1:12 PM
Repudlikins are always most entertaining when they lose their shit and freak out. Let the show begin. I think the Dems should wear party hats when they do the reconciliation vote, just to make the Repudlickins even more crazy. WEEEEEEEEEE
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FreemanW
February 27, 2010 2:05 PM
edfreeze has it right--as does Glenn Greenwald in his Salon article.
Anyone given to believing that the Democrats are going to be our salvation is out of touch with the all-to-obvious and painful reality, supported by fact.
Much of the Bush Administration policies survive to this day, after a DEMOCRATICALLY controlled majority in the Congress have voted to CONTINUE those policies.
People projecting their deepest needs onto these "D" politicians need to get a grip and face the facts. They're just another corporation of a different stripe than the Reprobates.
Should the Democrats take the Reprobates threats seriously?
That is the wrong question as this Kabuki Theater gets played out.
How can the People's business possibly get done with these two corporations in the way?
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FlownOver
February 27, 2010 2:48 PM
Doesn't McConnell realize that under a reformed health care system he could get that long-awaited chin?
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Kuro
February 27, 2010 3:30 PM
Enough is enough fight back!!!
http://www.youtube.com/user/coffeepartyusa
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democracy4ever48
February 27, 2010 3:51 PM
I like the metaphor of the Civil War because we are in a political civil war and have been since 1980. I can not believe that the current Democratic Party even hesitates to use whatever it takes to get a HCR bill passed even with possible imperfections. This will only be one of many fights in the next several years to take back our medical system from the blood sucking insurance companies but we need to open Pandora's box now before the opportunity passes. Use reconciliation NOW as every health care change has had to in the past.
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dnegri
February 27, 2010 7:11 PM
Check out this site/movement...I joined, because it has the potential of being a reasoned, rational alternative to the goofy tea party movement. Anyway, worth the try (and please share...):
http://coffeepartyusa.org/
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Sir T
February 27, 2010 8:14 PM
In short, no.
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MikeW67
February 27, 2010 8:18 PM
In 2/09 Obama had GOP leaders in for a meeting which produced the famous "I won the election" quote. While some (GOPapologistFox) outlets reported that quote out of all context, it did not happen out of all context.
It was in reply to the blanket "NO" on all Obama initiatives including health reform, from the usual obstructionists McConnell, Boehner, et al. The same policy blank-slates, whom rubberstamped the failed cut taxes/cut govt ideology of the corrupt Bush Regime. (Palin: ...hey, let's go back to THAT! Wheee!! America! Morons Only! ;^)
So the present claim that Obama's side never tried to include the GOP on health reform, is categorically false. They mailed their no in early, and weren't called back for any more stonewalling. Duh.
Of the proven-wrong GOP and their sheep, Abe Lincoln would have said;
"You can fool some of the people, ALL of the time"... ;^)
Balkingpoints / www
@Balkingpoints / Twitter
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larmar
February 27, 2010 8:59 PM
If this happens and if that happens, then maybe this will happen.
So far the only for sure thing is how gutless Dems have become.
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FreemanW
February 27, 2010 9:06 PM
For the last time, they're not gutless.
The Democratic politicians are doing EXACTLY what they want to do.
NOTHING for their constituents and EVERYTHING for their corporate masters.
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Brownbagger
February 28, 2010 8:30 AM
Can there be any clearer indication that the Repubs got their heads handed to them at the summit than David Gregory have an "exclusive interview" today with John McCain? Hilarious.
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FreemanW
February 28, 2010 3:04 PM in reply to Brownbagger
More a statement upon exactly how pathetic our state of politic.
This is the exemplar of the best the "opposition" has to put forward on the Sunday propaganda hours.
How anyone in their right mind can continue to characterize the Democrats as gutless, spineless, without ballsack, etc., is absurd.
They do exactly what they chose to do, nothing.
The Democratic party have held a larger majority in Congress than the Reprobates have held in DECADES. Wrap your head around that. Now, what great social programs and advancements have been made?
We have nothing to show for their "mandate" from the voter.
They're not our good intentioned friends.
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netskinner
February 28, 2010 4:53 PM
Great article. Congressional reconciliation is a procedure to match Senate and House bills. It is now widely abused by lawmakers to limit debate to 20 hours.
House should appropriate money. Senate should vote yes | no. But, oh wait, money disappeared during the "Great Depression." Are we now in the "Greater Depression" | "Greatest Depression" ?
Paper currency always returns to its intrinsic value, Voltaire.
Central Bank creation of debt (pretending to be money; see: "Money as Debt" "MoneyMasters" "Ron Paul sound money" "Dishonest Money, Honest Money") always hits a limit of the ability to pay.
Bankers can fool all their customers some of the time.
Bankers can fool some of their customers all of the time. But Banker can not get repaid all the time, and then they become the fools. Read history of banking.
Central Bank creation of debt (pretending to be money) always hits a limit of the ability to pay.
Central control of money always over time, favors Banks.
Sound money, please.
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a Mary Queen of Scott
March 1, 2010 1:23 AM
maybe we can leave the same lame headline ALL WEEKEND !! YAY !! Maybe the Dems will lose their entire backbone!!
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Lucieann
March 1, 2010 8:18 AM
Republicans used the reconciliation process many, many times. The Democrats need to hammer that fact home, and if the GOPers want to show how much they support the insurance companies over human beings by making and/or carrying out these ridiculous threats...I say let them do so.....the GOPers are so out of touch with reality, plus their talking points on the issue of health care is getting rather mundane.
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Tosh
June 6, 2010 2:43 AM
The premise of this article is just assinine. Really.
No the Democrats shouldn't be worried about what the enemy is going to do regardless. The Democrats should be worried that they've accomplished nothing in this Congress and so must get off their cowardly asses and start passing some legislation that is meaningful to the common people of this country. That, and only that, is what Democrats should be worrying about.
m65 kamagra
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