
Nancy Pelosi has a problem. A bare 220 members of the House voted to pass her health care bill. Only one of those 220 was a Republican--Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)--and he's since defected. And several of the 219 Democrats, for one reason or another, won't be there this time around. Reps. Robert Wexler (D-FL) and Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) have abdicated their seats. Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) passed away. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) has promised to bolt over the Senate health care bill's abortion provision, which he views as too lenient, and he's promised to bring other pro-life Dems with him.
That leaves Pelosi at a deficit. Because of vacancies, she'll likely only need 216 votes to pass the Senate health care bill, but she's short by an unknown number of votes. And she'll have to fill that hole with the votes of members who opposed reform the first time around. They're not exactly a willing bunch, but Pelosi has 38 members to mine from.
Of that bunch she's looking into two distinct camps to find potential flips: retiring members, and freshman--even from vulnerable districts--over whom the party has the most leverage.
The Associated Press has identified nine "no" votes who now say they're now undecided: retiring Reps. Brian Baird (D-WA), John Tanner (D-TN), and Bart Gordon (D-TN); freshmen Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), Frank Kratovil (D-MD), Scott Murphy (D-NY), Glenn Nye (D-VA), and Michael McMahon (D-NY); and Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA). Before the special election in Massachusetts, another freshman, Betsy Markey (D-CO) was keeping an open mind, and vulnerable sophomore Jason Altmire (D-PA), has said positive things about the Senate bill.
All of these young members represent vulnerable districts. But though they won by a range of margins, many of their districts only narrowly went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. Some went for Obama.
Many of them have been rattled by the vitriol of the fight over health care and the public option. Yesterday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said one thing that might ease some of them in to changing their minds is that the public option isn't part of the Senate health care bill.
"I think the Senate bill, which is now the center of the President's consideration, I think you had a lot of people who indicated they'd like the Senate bill better," Hoyer told me yesterday. "It doesn't have the public option that gave a number of people concern. But there's still a way's to go."
It's unclear how many of these members Pelosi--with an assist from President Obama--can flip, and it's equally unclear how many she'll need. But she'll need some of them. And figuring out which ones could get tricky.
FreeRider
March 2, 2010 3:42 PM
Yesterday, you declared that no one would switch their vote to yes and that more are likely to vote no.
It does help to have something more than uninformed opinion before you spout off.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:02 PM in reply to FreeRider
What makes Hoyer think Progressive Dems will go for a bill WITHOUT a public option? Those progressives will go down in November, if they don't deliver what they and Obama promised.
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:18 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
STFU, you old senile geezer!
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:22 PM in reply to FreeRider
Geezer, eh? I'm 40. What are you 12?
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:31 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
Brain rot so early? Ohhhhh. Better lay off that bathtub gin.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:38 PM in reply to FreeRider
Brain rot at 12? Dude, where do you live, Kentucky? Go JIM BUNNING!
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:57 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
My bad--for thinking you even had a bath tub!
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 6:30 PM in reply to FreeRider
Whoo! You are funny! We live in the 21st century, unlike you Republiturd pieces of human waste. Its called a shower. Look into it. They are much more convenient than the bucket and ladle system I'm sure you're used to.
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 6:58 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
The shower is not a 21st century invention, genius.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 8:42 PM in reply to FreeRider
Well then, what are you waiting for?
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 9:08 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
Waiting? I don't make gin--in the bathtub or the shower, Junior.
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gmiked23
March 3, 2010 12:21 AM in reply to FreeRider
What the hell was that about? You guys are both part of the problem. Grow up. Your invective isn't even entertaining.
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FreeRider
March 3, 2010 12:24 AM in reply to gmiked23
Fuck you.
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JorgeOrwell
March 3, 2010 1:37 AM in reply to gmiked23
Who knew "FreeRider" was Rahm Emanuel's handle on TPM?
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Jaymay
March 3, 2010 4:04 AM in reply to JorgeOrwell
Free Rider and Jorge Orwell are clearly the same person.
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JohnW1141
March 3, 2010 6:57 AM in reply to Jaymay
Jay,
I'm thinking the same thing.
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JorgeOrwell
March 3, 2010 12:40 PM in reply to Jaymay
I think you guys give "FreeLunch" way too much credit.
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jeffgee
March 3, 2010 10:13 AM in reply to JorgeOrwell
It would seem that way. He seems to be trying to be an ad hominem attacker, in your face and obnoxious like Andrew Breitbart.
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JorgeOrwell
March 3, 2010 2:09 PM in reply to jeffgee
Come on now. We don't need the fancy "logic" terminology. She has nothing but name calling. Always been the case with FreeLunch and her ilk (Republicans).
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George C
March 2, 2010 4:02 PM
Give the guy a break. In addition, there were progressives who voted against the House bill (unless they were critically needed) because of Stupak, and they will likely vote for the Senate bill.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:09 PM in reply to George C
Ya think? I'm not sure they would commit political suicide like that. That is unless, they have a lobby job lined up.
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:19 PM in reply to George C
Two progressives voted against the House bill--Kucinich & Massa--and it had NOTHING to do with Stupak.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:40 PM in reply to FreeRider
Right, it had to do with NO PUBLIC OPTION. Hoyer Seems to think he will get REAL Dens to vote for this thing if it looks like the Senate bill. What planet does he represent, again?
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 9:07 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
Fuck you and your "Independent" ass. You don't know anything about REAL Democrats you senile old prick.
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George C
March 3, 2010 8:22 AM in reply to FreeRider
It looks as though there are now about 35 Senators who've signed the letter saying they'll vote for the public option. That's 16 short of the majority -- ASSUMING the Parliamentarian is prepared to agree that the PO either adds to revenue (hard to make that argument) or subtracts from the deficit (maybe easier). If the Parliamentarian doesn't make that finding, then the PO amendment is subject to filibuster.
It doesn't do any good to rail against the lack of the PO in the Senate if you can't at least count to 51, and at the moment it doesn't seem they can.
Is there any more to it than that?
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FreeRider
March 3, 2010 11:58 AM in reply to George C
Fuck you.
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exregis
March 2, 2010 4:09 PM
There's so much posturing going on now, it's not remotely worth investing brain cells on anonymous counts. So why do I keep on reading these stories?
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George C
March 2, 2010 4:15 PM in reply to exregis
Blue in the bones.
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AJM
March 3, 2010 12:32 AM in reply to exregis
Because we are sticking to our knitting and making lists ..... as Blanche found out.
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felix
March 2, 2010 4:22 PM
Soooo...I guess today health care reform is "dead" again, huh Brian?
Take a few days off.
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masanf
March 2, 2010 4:31 PM
"Jason Altmire (D-PA), has said positive things about the Senate bill."
Yeah, he also said this:
"I just don’t know where they get the votes in the House."
and this:
"It’s a huge challenge because ... the people who voted yes would love a second bite at the apple to vote no this time because they went home and had an unpleasant experience as a result of their ‘yes’ vote. I don’t know if there is anybody who voted no that regrets it.”
Altmire also indicated that he wouldn't support the bill if it didn't include the Stupak language.
According to another article in Politico, John Tanner has already privatetly told at least one other Democrat that there is no way in hell he is switching his vote.
As for the AP survey, those nine people didn't necessarily say they were undecided. The article indicated all that had to happen for those individuals to get on that list was a non-response from the Rep. or his spokesperson. Not answering is not the same as saying you are undecided.
The most interesting part of this whole saga will be watching the reaction of the so-called progressives once it becomes obvious the public option won't be included. Spineless blowhards like Raul Grijalva went on and on for weeks about how they couldn't support a bill without a public option. I imagine we will find out soon that they were talking out of their ass. Kucinich, it seems, is the only one who is actually willing to put his vote where his mouth is.
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:21 PM in reply to masanf
Why don't you put a sock where your mouth is, Festus?!
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:41 PM in reply to FreeRider
Nice new avi, BTW!
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masanf
March 2, 2010 9:51 PM in reply to FreeRider
Hey moron, I am typing, not talking.
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FreeRider
March 3, 2010 12:26 AM in reply to masanf
You're farting. My bad.
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 5:46 PM
Hoyer must be a closet Republican. Looks like he wants to deepsix the PO as much as any of them. He is asking REAL dems to commit political seppuku by signing on to this Senate piece of human dung.
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 5:56 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
You don't know a damn thing about REAL Democrats, since you have never been or never will be a registered Democrat.
Stay out of Party business, you fucking fence-sitter!
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 6:26 PM in reply to FreeRider
Nutter and FreeLunch together again!
You two posers will be rejoicing when Republiturds take back the House and Senate next November. Nice try.
Go back to counting your stock options, douchebags!
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FreeRider
March 2, 2010 6:54 PM in reply to JorgeOrwell
Says the douchebag who has said repeatedly he no longer supports the president or the democrats.
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Nutter
March 2, 2010 5:50 PM
Really, all you libs pretending that a public option would be instantaneous is really fucking stupid. Would even a Medicare for all be up and running last year? Fuck no! You are talking about over a hundred million people trying to force their way into a program that is already being targeted for making fundamental changes.
Just think about how long and how much effort it took to even plan the Post Office System. Or the interstate highway. You are talking at least that long.
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theone718
March 2, 2010 5:56 PM
So you would vote for the bill because it doesn't have the MOST POPULAR PROVISION in it? Does that make any fucking sense?
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JorgeOrwell
March 2, 2010 6:32 PM in reply to theone718
theone,
These losers are Republicunt scum. Nothin' to see here
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ericAZ
March 3, 2010 12:58 AM
Somewhere between, "Hi, how ya doin'. I was wonderin' about how you feel about health care and all." And, "You'll never work in this town again." The votes will be delivered when needed. Anything else would be mass suicide for the Dems.
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Cal Gal
March 3, 2010 2:54 AM
Never underestimate the power of The Pelosi to deliver just enough votes. The ReThuglicans certainly don't. That's why you see so much vitriol directed towards her.
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George C
March 3, 2010 8:24 AM in reply to Cal Gal
I agree. Newt went down when he believed his own hype and closed the gov't in 95. Automatically made Clinton "relevant" again. This is the point, I think, upon which Pelosi's legacy will be made or not.
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mfortner
March 3, 2010 9:04 AM
What about Dennis Kucinich? He voted against the original bill. Is he going to place ideology over health care reform?
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George C
March 3, 2010 9:08 AM in reply to mfortner
If he does, he should be tossed by his constituents. It's one thing to vote "no" on the first round, when (as now appears likely) it may still be possible to extract some additional concessions later. But now? Folks who are this kind of purist should be priests, or Fox commentators, not politicians.
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democratICnproud
March 3, 2010 9:39 AM
The number of weak-kneed, no backbone, milk toast Democrats (progressive or NOT)in the House/Senate gives me great concern BUT the alternative of allowing the morally bankrupt, mean-spirited, heartless, trolls of the Rethuglican Militia to regain control of the agenda in our government would surely be an exercise in terror. I have no suicidal tendencies and hope my fellow Democrats of every stripe join me in urging a massive turnout in Nov. The future of our country depends on it.
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dick_data
March 3, 2010 10:28 AM
i just have one question. Since health care reform has about an 85% approval rating among Democrats, if you are a Democratic member of the House, and you vote to kill health care reform, who do you expect to vote for you in November? Republicans? Not too likely. And when you get a primary opponent who get millions from progressives, are the coporations going to match that or are they going to go with a more reliable Republican?
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TDGoddard
March 3, 2010 10:43 AM
If Democrats now think they can get the bill passed in the next two week, don't you think that means they have already lined up the votes?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/03/03/two_weeks_for_health_care.html
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George C
March 3, 2010 11:51 AM in reply to TDGoddard
The last sentence of the "First Read" says it all:
"If Democrats can't get a vote in the House by then [i.e., March 18], we'll know if this last push is in trouble."
This is where Pelosi earns her stripes. She's among the best at this kind of thing (she hasn't lost a big one yet), but this is a real test.
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