Anything can happen, but it looks like the House is poised to pass the Senate health care bill tonight sometime between 10:15 and 10:30 tonight. They are plowing through two hours of debate which is expected to wrap up right before 10 p.m. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer kicked off the official debate, and members have taken to the floor for several minute speeches with various talking points. Some lawmakers have spoken for less than 45 seconds.
When the two hours of debate time expires, expect to see Speaker Nancy Pelosi assume the dais to call for the official yeas and nays. House Press Gallery staffers say that is looking like it will happen at 10:15 at the earliest. It’s always a bit confusing when the House holds a major vote, but it is likely the Republicans will get an attempt to kill the bill and kick off a series of procedural votes. Those votes always fall along party lines to prevent the minority party from defeating the legislation. Usually the minority party is allowed 15 minutes of debate time - split between Republicans and Democrats - to argue their case for killing the bill.
When Pelosi asks the question, bells will sound signaling the vote series. As members are scattered all over the Capitol (some even having dinner nearby) it will take awhile for them to get into the chamber for the vote. So the actual voting time, which includes that series of procedural votes, could last an hour. Gallery staff say it could also happen in any order, so pay close attention to what the speaker says at about 10:15 p.m. The last vote in the series will be on passage of the Senate bill. After that, there will be about an hour window where - technically - the Senate measure could become law.
A big caveat is how long Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will choose to speak tonight. It’s been a tradition that while each party’s senior speaker is given a set time to speak, they often have been granted time to give a longer speech than allowed.
After that series, the House will immediately vote on the budget reconciliation measure fixing the Senate bill. That includes student loan reform and removes the unsavory elements from the Senate plan.
We’re hearing that after that vote, Democrats will speak to the press in Statuary Hall, though nothing official has been announced. President Obama is expected to speak from the East Room of the White House after that, which looks like it will be between 10:50 and 11:15 p.m.
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