
Ever since Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the GOP's top budget guy, unveiled a proposal to slash and privatize entitlements in order to reduce long-term deficits, the media--and even some Democratic politicians--have praised the plan as a serious way to save money. The plan may be conservative, they say, but at least it takes a serious, honest stab at averting fiscal catastrophe. Ryan even had the Congressional Budget Office score the package, and they found that, by mid-century, it would eliminate federal deficits.
But it turns out that's not even close to true.
As we reported a month ago, the CBO's analysis of the Ryan plan was drawn up based upon revenue projections Ryan himself provided. The CBO doesn't analyze the impact of tax policy on revenue, so they were unable to estimate how Ryan's policy prescriptions would actually impact revenues--and just took Ryan's numbers at face value. Turns out, those numbers were pure fantasy.
The Tax Policy Center--a non-partisan think tank--did a thorough analysis on the impact of the tax changes Ryan proposes--a massive tax cut for the wealthy, paired with substantial tax increases on 90 percent of the country--and found that the so-called "Roadmap" would actually leave the federal government desperately starved for funds.
According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, "the Ryan plan would result in very large revenue losses relative to current policies."
[The Tax Policy Center] estimates that even with its middle-class tax increases, the plan would reduce federal revenues to 16 percent of GDP in 2014. Because the tax cuts for the wealthy would dwarf the tax increases for the middle class, the Ryan plan would allow the federal debt to continue growing for a number of decades to come, despite its steep cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
The result, they conclude, is ballooning, unsustainable deficits--a quirky feature for a plan touted far and wide for its potential to right the country's fiscal course. And yet, Ryan's star is on the rise in the GOP and in Washington.
By contrast to the Ryan Roadmap, President Obama's budget would increase revenues as a share of GDP from 14.5 percent in 2010 to 19.6 percent in 2020. There would still be deficits at that point--but at a much more sustainable level than under the GOP alternative.
FreeRider
March 11, 2010 10:08 AM
I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you! to learn that a Republican would offer a plan that balloons the deficit and gives the middle class an unlubricated proctology exam.
I'll be even more shocked when the toothless, double-digit IQ trailer park brigade which routinely votes against its own self-interest salute and say "Ummmm, can I have another, fine sir?"
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Shoto
March 11, 2010 11:39 AM in reply to FreeRider
"toothless, double-digit IQ trailer park brigade which routinely votes against its own self-interest"
That's not a very nice thing to say about Glenn Beck's regular viewing audience. Or Sarah Palin's supporters, for that matter.
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FreeRider
March 11, 2010 11:50 AM in reply to Shoto
The truth can be ugly.
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Docb
March 11, 2010 2:58 PM in reply to Shoto
Push this out to the media..all of us..This needs to get covered--looped looped looped...
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sbv
March 11, 2010 11:52 AM in reply to FreeRider
okay you are right of course, shocked shocked i say about this big DUH; but let's not have any more "rush limbaugh bend over and grab our ankles" references. we have too much work to do to sink to their level!
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lousgirl84
March 11, 2010 12:15 PM in reply to FreeRider
Good morning friend... amazing shit isn't it. The guy has the fricking nerve to tout this bill as an alternative. These folks are crazy
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FreeRider
March 11, 2010 1:10 PM in reply to lousgirl84
True dat. I like your new avatar!
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Cornelius
March 11, 2010 2:48 PM in reply to FreeRider
Your correct. Saw it all the time while living in lower AL. The trailer park brigade you mention would rather live in a trailer or under a fucking bridge than change their "beliefs". I mean, if 14 yr old Betty Sue got pregnant, well by God she's having that baby! And no I don't care if Uncle Leon is the father. Hell, he said he'd marry her. Plus, if I killed him I'd have no one else to go hunting with!
Could never figure it out. But Carl Rove did.
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Cornelius
March 11, 2010 2:49 PM in reply to FreeRider
Your correct. Saw it all the time while living in lower AL. The trailer park brigade you mention would rather live in a trailer or under a fucking bridge than change their "beliefs". I mean, if 14 yr old Betty Sue got pregnant, well by God she's having that baby! And no I don't care if Uncle Leon is the father. Hell, he said he'd marry her. Plus, if I killed him I'd have no one else to go hunting with!
Could never figure it out. But Carl Rove did.
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Chris
March 11, 2010 3:35 PM in reply to FreeRider
I concur. Just think, when the official history of Republican efforts is written, it will no doubt include such historical facts at all their efforts to limit the size of government.
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trblmkr
March 11, 2010 10:13 AM
Well, we already know the Senate Parlimentarian is a stinkin' librul, now the CBO is too! Who do they think they are with all their 'facts' and 'number' thingies?
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Cal Gal
March 11, 2010 12:52 PM in reply to trblmkr
No, no, no. This shows the CBO to be the lackies of WHOEVER gives them numbers. The stoopid Dems should just have cooked up some numbers that showed a public option would save a kagillion dollars and given THOSE to the CBO.
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mans_best_friend
March 11, 2010 10:13 AM
Who could have guessed??? Someone please point out to me ONE instance over the last 40 years when making the tax system less progressive has done anything except reduce total revenues and slowed economic growth. It's not that hard to understand. We're on the left side of the Laffer curve. The economy is not investment limited - it's demand limited. This is not even Econ 101. It's high school economics.
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geofu54
March 11, 2010 10:26 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
Yes, exactly. And given that, the fact too many ordinary people repeatedly voted against their own interests over the last 40 years really boggles the mind.
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Chico David RN
March 11, 2010 10:34 AM in reply to geofu54
That people vote "against their own interests" is largely due to one thing:
The failure, even willful refusal, of the Democratic party in modern times to make a credible economic populist case. By abandoning the language (and policies) of economic populism, the Dems have ceded that field to the Republicans who have filled the gap with a language of cultural populism - "liberal elites" etc.
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mophan
March 11, 2010 10:45 AM in reply to Chico David RN
And liberals have wrongfully been given the reputation of being the irresponsible "tax and spend" types.
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Given Up
March 11, 2010 10:57 AM in reply to mophan
Because it is so much worse than the repubs borrow and spend policies of course... /snark
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Rick Jones
March 11, 2010 12:41 PM in reply to Given Up
"Tax and spend liberals" is easier for the media to keep repeating. It plays into the whole adversarial meme - in this corner, wearing the blue trunks, the tax and spend democrat - even though the truth about which is the party of fiscal responsibility does not support this. Besides, tax and spend represents an immediate pain or sacrifice to actually pay for programs, wars, etc. in the form of taxes; like a gash on your arm it's noticeable immediately. Borrow and spend is more like a cancer; it grows unnoticed until it is too late to do anything except radical treatment or just suffer the inevitable.
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Matt Jones
March 11, 2010 10:58 AM in reply to Chico David RN
Well, now we know why the Republican leadership has been hesitant to embrace this plan - apparently, not all of them are quite ready to openly declare war on the non-rich. They've been fine with the covert attacks on the poor and the middle class, but this is a clear "tough shit" to 90% of America.
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Cool Blue Reason
March 11, 2010 11:24 AM in reply to Chico David RN
Actually, pursuant to Mans Be's comment above, it's not only the underclass GOP voters who are voting against their interests. The upper classes have also tended to do better under a tax regime that provides for a robust middle class -- precisely because it fuels aggregate demand and sustainable economic growth.
Enlightened self-interest would lead them to stop cannibalizing the system for short-term gains.
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davcbr
March 11, 2010 12:51 PM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
I generally put this in terms of someone's piece of the pie. When the pie itself is bigger, so is your piece.
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James D
March 11, 2010 7:22 PM in reply to davcbr
This reminds me of my core political principle:
There is enough pie for everyone.
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Nancy Irving
March 12, 2010 1:40 AM in reply to Cool Blue Reason
Yes--if poor Republicans vote against their own self-interest, rich ones do the same by continually demanding that the golden goose be slaughtered for their immediate delectation.
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NotBornEveryMinute
March 11, 2010 2:19 PM in reply to Chico David RN
Another large point in talking people into voting against their own interests which is brushed on many times in this tread bears emphasizing; Republicans have become great at framing the public discourse, including the creation of great-sounding short-hand phrases for their positions. "Tax-and-spend-liberal", "death tax", "rammed down our throats" - how could anyone be FOR any of that? And who could possibly oppose "stopping Saddam before the smoking gun is a mushroom cloud", or "the PATRIOT Act"? There are many, many other examples. This has been discussed before, but I see no progress being made to stop it. The MSM is complicit in the process, and seems the most likely place to stop it. Our liberal leaders must be vigilant, and smack down any question from the MSM which tacitly embraces any of these loaded terms. We mere citizens need to complain via mail, email and telephone when the media use these terms. Insist that unbiased, reality-based terms be used in any discussion. I'd love to see the talking heads be forced to use the horrible 'retronymic', "Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act of 2001" every time they wanted to say "PATRIOT Act".
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bluesplashy
March 11, 2010 5:11 PM in reply to Chico David RN
You are right about that but I think most of the congress persons on both sides don't want to know much about the economic issue and have to explain it back home. I think they are too worried pleasing the lobbyist for thier own hand outs. That is why they won't do ANYTHING except send out birthday greetings and name bridges. If Obama wasn't riding thier asses now they would never do a piping thing about health care EVER. I am sorry I can't remember the commentor here but I am going to quote 'em "Pass. The. Damn. Bill". I know you are talking about the budget but the same thing applies. The republicans are putting this out, knowing it is not going anywhere but they can point to it and say We tried but they didn't listen. Why the f don't the Dems turn on thier light bulbs and get someone to teach them how to communicate. JEEZUS F CHRIST. This is just another example of the most painfully stupid part of the Democrat Party - they couldn't carry a message down the block if you gave them a bucket with a lid on it.
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A Missouri voter
March 11, 2010 11:30 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
I think that part of the problem is that there is no high school economics, nor high school philosophy. At least I never had an actual philosophy or econ class in high school (home economics notwithstanding). Given that only about one-third of the population goes to college (and only a subset of that population takes an econ class), most people have no formal exposure to ideas like the Laffer curve. This makes it a lot harder to sell important budget reforms to the public. I think that we could all do with one less year of American history in high school (in my own high school school we had three years of that subject, and they were three highly redundant years) and we should use that year to teach one semester of formal economics and one of formal logic to high schoolers.
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Powkat
March 11, 2010 12:24 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
There is econ in high school, but it has morphed into how to balance a checking account, fill out an income tax form, create a simple household budget, etc. All well and good, but there is no longer any economic theory or comparison thereof.
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slb
March 11, 2010 12:51 PM in reply to A Missouri voter
I would second that. My senior year the subject was "government," required of all high school seniors in Virginia, and it was a total waste of classroom time. The only thing I learned in that class was not to sit too near the front, because the teacher had a tendency to spit when he talked. (And what he talked about mostly had nothing to do with the subject of the class.)
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Majorajam
March 11, 2010 11:56 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
Not sure I understand. Investment is demand.
Saying that, Ryan's tax proposals are an embarrassment from just about any angle you want to look at them. Aside from affordability, which this plan clearly isn't within a moon shot of, the way to evaluate tax policy is by its efficiency- essentially social disutility per dollar of revenue raised. What determines the relative efficiency of a tax policy includes disincentives for economically productive behavior, incentives for socially destructive behavior, transitions costs, transparency/predictability and any relevant implications for political/policy stability.
It also includes the degree to which the tax is progressive. Progressivity matters because we know that there is a diminishing marginal utility to wealth, i.e. the same wealth distributed more equitably increases the net benefit to society as a whole- what economists call aggregate efficiency. In other words, the more progressive a tax system, all else equal, the better. In a country with a gini coefficient as appalling as ours, the effect on income distribution is a considerable component of efficiency. As has been pointed out, this is the most notable area where Ryan's tax policy is an abject failure.
But it is also interesting to note that, while the (regressive) VAT realigns savings/investment incentives in a positive way, what truly exposes Ryan's proposal for what it is is its disregard for the importance of incentives, as evidenced by the elimination of the estate tax. Some background:
Unlike excise and income taxes, the deadweight loss to society created by the estate tax is very small- almost entirely circumscribed by the money spent on estate planning. There are otherwise no socially useless (much less destructive) activities an estate tax creates. More importantly there are no economically productive things that an estate tax discourages- none at all. This can't be said for any other taxes of which I'm aware. Finally, the estate tax is by far the most progressive tax on the books. It raises ALL its money from people who can afford to pay it, (something we can say with certainty following Republicans' futile decades-long search for the family that had to sell the company/farm/whatever they were left), and the most from the uber-wealthy (whose very existence, a decent argument could be made, is a threat to our democratic institutions. Another net benefit of the tax).
In short, the estate tax is the most efficient tax we have, and it is nowhere near a close call. Yet Ryan and the Republicans would like to see it eliminated, and feel like they have a winning political argument simply because they can call it a 'death tax'. The ONLY possible justification for that is class warfare. There is no other. Proof positive, as if we needed more, that class warfare is exactly what the Republicans are engaging in here.
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lousgirl84
March 11, 2010 12:17 PM in reply to Majorajam
Yes,and a fair tax I might add.
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storm
March 11, 2010 12:34 PM in reply to Majorajam
one quibble with the estate tax is liquidity. a coworker's father passed away, father owned 140 acre farm. The farm is now close enough to the city that maybe it is worth a bit, but who knows. to grow corn it is maybe worth 20k/acre, to grow houses it could be worth 50k/acre. There is a large difference in the estate tax bill based on a fairly arbitrary determination.
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Cal Gal
March 11, 2010 12:57 PM in reply to storm
If the family is actually FARMING the farm, there are provisions that reduce its value for estate tax purposes to its income-producing value, but if it is an INVESTMENT (i.e. they rent it to tenant farmers), no.
Family farms are not at danger from the estate tax.
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Cal Gal
March 11, 2010 1:03 PM in reply to Cal Gal
BTW, this applies to other family-run businesses as well. Caveat: the family has to run the business for 10 years or there is some estate tax recapture. And of course, like any asset, it has to be worth more than the estate tax exemption, which the ReThugs COULD have permanently enshrined at $5 million per parent had they not insisted on complete elimination. Now it will go back to $1 million per parent next year.
And of course, the coworker's father must have passed away before the beginning of the year, because this year, there IS no estate tax.
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storm
March 11, 2010 1:14 PM in reply to Cal Gal
the father was recently retired, died in his 90's. mother still lives there, but the land is rented out to other farmers.
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Given Up
March 11, 2010 1:20 PM in reply to Majorajam
The rich have been engaged in class warfare for the past 30 some years (at the very least), time we started shooting back. Figuratively speaking of course.
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Kevin Sutton
March 11, 2010 10:24 AM
I'm amazed at the GOP's inability to create even a remotely reasonable economic policy over the last few years. They can't even do smoke and mirrors right anymore. (Although as it turns out, there are people still entranced by the severed thumb trick so it may not be necessary)
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geofu54
March 11, 2010 10:30 AM in reply to Kevin Sutton
the GOP's inability to create even a remotely reasonable economic policy...
I guess that's all any ideologue has to offer... really, that's by definition what ideologues are all about.
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Steve LaBonne
March 11, 2010 10:25 AM
That the CBO was willing to participate in this charade suggests that there are serious problems with that office which need to be investigated. Knowing that they were unable to estimate the revenue side, they should simply have have declined to provide the requested scoring. Providing estimates based on Ryan's "brown" numbers was an inexcusable breach of professionalism.
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blkblt
March 11, 2010 10:51 AM in reply to Steve LaBonne
I agree, if the CBO knew they were supplying bad information they should have been able to amend it or clarify or something. And why didn't the Dems ask the CBO to score it without the fictional revenue numbers?
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Rick Jones
March 11, 2010 10:59 AM in reply to blkblt
What you guys said. The CBO knows that its reports will be cited and used to support one side against the other. So if it cannot make a valid analysis because a snake-oil salesman isn't giving full or accurate info, stay out of it.
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Bruce Webb
March 11, 2010 12:26 PM in reply to blkblt
CBO works for Congress. Their job is to answer questions. If a Congressman is clever enough to ask the question the right way he can get the answer he wants.
Good example. Congressman Camp asked CBO what was the range of penalties possible for refusing to pay the penalty for not buying insurance under the House HCR bill. Well it turns out that the section of law that controls this has penalties that range from simple civil fines (typically the amount in question plus interest and penalties) to misdemeanors to serious felonies (like drug kingpins hiding millions of dollars of income). The CBO Report itself was qualified from here to eternity and made it clear that the penalty for violating the mandate might end up having you get a tax lien or having your bank account seized but of course Camps office took the very most extreme penalty possible under the law and claimed that Nancy Pelosi would put you in jail for 5 years and fine you $250,000 if you didn't buy private insurance through the Exchange. Which 'fact' was of course immediately picked up by the Purist FirePups.
But the point is if you bother to click through and actually read CBO Reports they are quite upfront about what they are doing, in this case they openly admitted that at Ryan's staff request they assumed baseline revenues. Why did they agree? Because the Ryan Roadmap actually offers two choices. Every taxpayer has the choice of filing their taxes under the new rules or the old rules. If every rich person in the country chose to file under the old rules then obviously there is no hit to revenues even as you add new revenues via VAT. Result balanced budget. Now obviously there was no scenario under which millionaires would just continue to pay taxes on capital gains, interest and dividends out of altruistic desire to pay for services for people, BUT IF THEY DID you get the result in the CBO letter.
CBO Director Elmendorf has all too often allowed his shop to go along with this game but never that I have seen to the point that a careful reader can't figure out the game being played. Key word 'reader'. See the word 'CBO' check the CBO Publications page or else you are at risk of being a negative information voter.
http://www.cbo.gov/publications/
BTW all of this is announced on the CBO Director's Blog with a link back to the actual Report or Letter, you could do worse than just checking in regularly to see what Elmendorf is up to today so as not to get blind-sided by this crap. You can actually beat anyone except the Congressman who requested the analysis in the first place and be ready for the Press Release.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/
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Steve LaBonne
March 11, 2010 12:46 PM in reply to Bruce Webb
Sorry, that's not good enough. When he knows damn well that games are being played it's his duty as a professional NOT to go along with providing information he knows to be misleading. He should be fired.
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MASON
March 11, 2010 10:27 AM
Sure, "experts" say this with their fancy degrees and education, but what does your heart tell you? Would Ronald Reagan lie to you?
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kernel
March 11, 2010 11:58 AM in reply to MASON
He might have, but the poor guy wouldn't have remembered it.
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MASON
March 11, 2010 12:12 PM in reply to kernel
Fair point. But would the reanimated corpse of Ronald Reagan lie to you?
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/zombie_reagan_raised_from_grave
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Michael A
March 11, 2010 10:30 AM
Repukes have no idea how to run the government or the economy. It's been that way since hoover's response to the great depression. They are just clueless.
The primary problem is as goofy points out, the repukes are beholden to the uber rich who line their campaign coffers. Tax cutting, their taxes, does nothing to help the economy or benefit people. Taxing the uber rich proportionately to run the government and help the less fortunate, helps the economy and helps the uber rich make more money, legitimate money as opposed to monopoly money, such as based on triple double super secret credit derrivative swaps which do nothing to promote economic expansion or make money for the economy as a whole. The government needs to be used as a safety net and to build infrastructure to run the economy and regulate. This helps the super rich make more money. Isn't that what they want? Why is that so hard to understand? I just don't get it.
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mans_best_friend
March 11, 2010 10:34 AM in reply to Michael A
They all did pretty well in the 1990's. You'd think they would remember this. But then, these are the same people running corporations fixated on nothing more distant than next quarter's earnings.
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Rick Jones
March 11, 2010 10:31 AM
Ryan and Republican leaders say "This plan is a serious way to save money and reduce the deficits." Therefore, the media reports this verbatim. No analysis, no facts, no reporting that revenue figures are Ryan's own and are made up out of thin air, no reporting that middle class taxes go up and taxes for the rich are reduced again. Because that would be harder work, journalism if you will. So, the public hears the lies again and again, and accepts them as truth, and the misinformed and uninformed vote against what's best for them.
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LAB
March 11, 2010 10:31 AM
Why in the world anyone would want to go back to Reagan's failed economic policies is beyond me. But the public will be spoon fed these lies daily by the media--who would rather do "real" reporting on the likes of groping house members.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
March 11, 2010 10:35 AM
As if the Village Idiots will give a good goddamn. Don't you understand? The CBO Has Spoken! The holy CBO, acting under influence of Holy Bipartisanship has said a thing is so and so it must be!
What's that you say? "The CBO doesn't analyze the impact of tax policy on revenue?" Wonk gibberish. Blah blah blah policy blah blah blah. None of our readers/viewers will understand that, because its soooooo complicated, therefore it doesn't mean anything as far as we're concerned. Okay, fine. We'll "balance" our stories by saying "Critics say 'nuh-uh!'." There, satisfied?
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worthy9
March 11, 2010 11:17 AM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
Hold on, though - the CBO isn't always correct. When it scores the HCR bill, cap-and-trade and anything else the Democrats put forth it's way off. ;)
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
March 11, 2010 11:50 AM in reply to worthy9
Hence my poorly-rec'd blog comparing the CBO to the Oracle of Delph or the priests who cut open chickens and stared at their innards looking for potents last September. The whole CBO thing is a ritualistic sham.
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hey norm
March 11, 2010 10:41 AM
When can we finally just admit that tax cuts for the very rich don't do anything positive...unless you are the rich folks getting the tax cuts?
And the idea that republicans can cut spending - when they have never cut spending is ridiculous.
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CVille Dem
March 11, 2010 12:51 PM in reply to hey norm
The new Republican governor of Virginia is cutting spending ---- on schools! Thousands of teachers across the state will be laid of as of June. And guess what else he wants to do?
Ding! Ding! Ding! Right again!
Lower taxes (to help small business -- what an insulting lie that is!)
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Liberal Jesus
March 11, 2010 10:56 AM
I'm still waiting for any republican or conservative to explain to us how 2 unfunded wars, 3 unfunded tax cuts and a 500 billion dollar pay out to big pharma with the pill bill was a good idea? Who thinks you can start 2 wars and cut taxes at the same time? No time in our nation's history have we ever gone to war and not increased taxes....ever! And that clown Bush and the republican party didnt stop there with that lunacy...oh no! They also threw in 3 tax cuts for the upper 5% and a 500 billion dollar payout to big pharma and when they left office, they dropped a 3 trillion dollar debt on Obama and said " here you go, fix this!" Sailor....wanna explain the conservative policy on this?
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Rick Jones
March 11, 2010 11:01 AM in reply to Liberal Jesus
Simple. It's magic.
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Powkat
March 11, 2010 12:28 PM in reply to Liberal Jesus
The deficit fairy?
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Pete Bilderback
March 11, 2010 11:04 AM
Right. And then when the deficit balloons even further, the Republicans will claim the only solution is to further slash entitlements and cut taxes further for the wealthy. That's the plan. This is the course we've been on for the last thirty years.
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Cool Blue Reason
March 11, 2010 11:18 AM in reply to Pete Bilderback
"Starving the beast" has always been the game plan. When you are a reactionary, anti-government movement, that is what you do when you are in power. You break things, and then decry the resulting state of affairs as further proof that government is useless.
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human
March 11, 2010 11:09 AM
I was reading an analysis of this "plan" the other day, and although I was suspicious, I had no idea how truly awful it was--it would totally destroy the middle class, an almost complete shifting of the tax burden from the top 1% to everyone else. Elimination of the estate tax, capital gains tax, and massive cuts in income taxes for the very wealthy.
Even the talking heads on MSNBC are fluffing this guy and telling him what a serious person he his, all without discussing a word about what's actually in the plan. Of course he sits there with a smile on his face, soaking it all up.
Oh, and I didn't even mention that he would destroy Social Security and Medicare.
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human
March 11, 2010 11:11 AM
And then when the deficit balloons even further, the Republicans will claim the only solution is to further slash entitlements and cut taxes further for the wealthy.
The problem is, if Ryan's plan is adopted in its entirety, that would be almost impossible, since he eliminates most taxes on the rich, and eliminates SS and Medicare.
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human
March 11, 2010 11:15 AM in reply to human
his solution would probably be to increase his consumption tax, destroying whatever remains of a middle class, if anything, and pushing us further down the third world rankings.
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cwnidog
March 11, 2010 11:13 AM
Grover Norquist gets wood whenever he thinks of this plan.
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Rick Jones
March 11, 2010 11:28 AM in reply to cwnidog
Hey, his insurance plan doesn't cover Viagra. And he needs to keep his plastic doll satisfied.
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cwnidog
March 11, 2010 12:24 PM in reply to Rick Jones
Eewwwww!!!
But then I think that there's a certain symmetry to it; a ballooning deficit and a balloon girlfriend.
I'm ashamed to say that Grover and I share home states, but I guess we can always use him as proof that not everyone in Mass. is a latte-swilling Cambridge liberal.
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Left-wing-libertarian
March 11, 2010 11:15 AM
This is the distribution of the tax rates.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/10/who-do-you-love-part-ii/
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_agave_
March 11, 2010 11:18 AM
So then Just start GIVING the rich money! That'll fix it.
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Given Up
March 11, 2010 1:26 PM in reply to _agave_
Yeah since only the rich create wealth for everybody we should give them all our money and have it rain down on us from the heavens.
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Shoto
March 11, 2010 4:11 PM in reply to Given Up
Sounds like the classic "Prosperity Gospel" televangelist line. A whole other class of lowlife gangster. And speaking of the tax code, why do these criminals get the benefit of tax-exempt status? Pay up, dirtbags. Can I get an "Amen?"
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GTFOOH
March 11, 2010 11:27 AM
DOH!
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Shoto
March 11, 2010 11:37 AM
"Ryan Roadmap Balloons Deficits While Taxing Middle Class, Slashing Entitlements"
Well Duh...
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decisivemoment
March 11, 2010 11:40 AM
It's rather like the metaphor in Ned Lamont's ads from four years ago -- crash the economy into the wall. Results are undesirable. Solve problem by crashing the economy into another wall. Repeat.
Ryan's formula represents the same formula that drove Latin America into an economic ditch; overtax the vast majority, stagnate the economy and let the super rich make off with what loot is left.
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Walter Mitty
March 11, 2010 11:41 AM
Where are the Dems shouting this from the rooftops?
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blaneyboy
March 11, 2010 11:42 AM
Why can't I understand this?
One function of the Congressional Budget Office is to look at how new legislation affects expenditures and the federal deficit. Yet "the CBO doesn't analyze the impact of tax policy on revenue" according to the article.
How can CBO analyze a proposal's effects on the deficit without considering both revenue and expenditures? What am I missing?
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cwnidog
March 11, 2010 12:19 PM in reply to blaneyboy
I think where you're going wrong here is that you're assuming that they give an unbiased analysis, based on what would be considered standard accounting practices. In fact, they give analyses based on whatever set or rules and assumptions that they are asked to use.
I'm not saying that they'd be willing to score something with the assumption that a gajillion dollars will magically appear under the Capitol rotunda, but they are allowed to believe in unicorns.
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BeeClone
March 11, 2010 11:43 AM
Rep. Paul Ryan's is a fraud, and the repubs don't want there to be a middle class, the rich are the only Americans that need help in the form of more tax brakes. Tax brakes will put the country on the right road, well tax brakes for the rich that is right Paul.
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Icon
March 11, 2010 11:51 AM
Not really surprising. Politicians generally don't seem to understand economics, even when many of them have degrees in it.
Worse, it seems that right now the Republican party doesn't even listen to the advisers that they hire to explain the issues to them.
In the world of academia, they'd call the Ryan budget 'academic misconduct' for making up his numbers and it would be grounds for both termination and a general ban on serving in an educational position for the rest of his life. Why don't voters apply the same standard, particularly when such an idiotic breach of honesty would affect them directly?
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Jackster
March 11, 2010 11:53 AM
Ryan is a "serious" BIMBO (R)
Pretty, without a intelligent or original thought, under the lovely head of hair.
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NotFooledByDistractions
March 11, 2010 11:57 AM
I read this evaluation of Ryans plan last night - it's definitely worth your time - http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3114
It's astounding that he's considered a rising star. His plan is a roadmap alright - a roadmap to disaster.
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xargaw
March 11, 2010 11:57 AM
Why don't the Democrats frame Ryan's plan in a simple way that all Americans (since most Americans repel critical thinking)can understand. If you cut medicare and social security, seniors will be forced to move in with their adult children. I doubt that all those SUV driving, cell phone talking, latte sipping suburban republicans would welcome that outcome.
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Powkat
March 11, 2010 12:51 PM in reply to xargaw
That's what I keep wondering. "Killing Grandma" worked for the Republicans on health care. Why not go with "Bankrupting Mom and Dad" for this budget plan. Adult children may or may not be able to support their parents, but no parent wants to be a burden on their children.
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GayIthacan
March 11, 2010 12:13 PM
Why do so many people vote against their own interests?
For the same reason millions of people continue to buy Ab machines and diet programs.
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romath
March 11, 2010 12:29 PM in reply to GayIthacan
Because they've been taught, and continue to be taught, including by this website, that their interests are with capitalism and therefore they should vote for its parties' candidates. The arguments made for voting Democrat or Republican today are the same that were offered 100 years ago for voting for the mainstream parties. See where it's gotten us.
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willdabeast
March 12, 2010 3:04 AM in reply to GayIthacan
Just look at how incredibly popular the Airborne cold tablets are. Their catch phrase is, "...created by a school teacher." I have nothing against school teachers, but that statement right there should have stopped the product dead in its tracks. It's like buying cancer medication "...designed by an electrical engineer." Yes, Americans really are that stupid.
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toddincabo
March 11, 2010 12:43 PM
Does anyone know why the CBO would take Ryan's projections to begin with?
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Bruce Webb
March 11, 2010 1:00 PM in reply to toddincabo
Short version. They were set up.
Under the Ryan Roadmap the new tax structure is voluntary. Everyone has to pay the new VAT but theoretically everyone could of their own free will file under the old tax rules and continue to pay taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains and at the same marginal rates.
If you assume that everyone files under the old rules then revenues don't drop. Add a new source of revenue in the VAT and presto you get balanced budgets. Now the conditions are absurd, what millionaire or billionaire would just continue paying taxes they didn't have to, but once you jump that logical hurdle the conclusion follows.
CBO staff are not paid to cry "Bullshit" to Congressional staff. On the other hand they do let the cat out of the bag. The CBO document on the Roadmap is here: http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=466 In the first paragraph you get this revelation:
"CBO’s analysis is based on the proposal as modified by specifications provided by Congressman Ryan’s staff. In particular, the specifications for Medicaid and the tax system that CBO analyzed are highly stylized versions of the more detailed provisions in the bill."
Hmm, 'highly stylized". If you then click through to the actual document (pdf)
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10851/01-27-Ryan-Roadmap-Letter.pdf
"Other Tax Provisions. The proposal would make significant changes to the tax system. However, as specified by your staff, for this analysis total federal tax revenues are assumed to equal those under CBO’s alternative fiscal scenario (which is one interpretation of what it would mean to continue current fiscal policy) until they reach 19 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030, and to remain at that share of GDP thereafter."
Bolding mine. Basically it is like a statement released by a hostage, you have to read it for the clues it is a forced confession.
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Bruce Webb
March 11, 2010 12:45 PM
"Why don't the Democrats frame Ryan's plan in a simple way that all Americans (since most Americans repel critical thinking)can understand."
I already did. Too bad you guys don't follow the Angry Bear blog. I even titled the post in a way that would get reichnut attention.
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2010/02/republican-roadmapno-taxes-for-oprah.html
"Republican Roadmap: No Taxes for Oprah, Pelosi, Soros"
Billionaires don't get there by taking home wage income, instead they own things and draw income from them in the form of interest, dividends or when they sell them capital gains. Under the Ryan Roadmap all are tax free. Meaning that billionaires will pay no taxes worth mentioning during their lifetimes. And since the Roadmap also eliminates the Estate Tax neither will their children or grandchildren. Ever.
So if you ever run into a Trust Fund Baby cruising through life on money from that trust established by his millionaire/billionaire grandfather you can console yourself that under the Ryan Roadmap that he will never have to pay a dime in tax. Zero. Zip. Nada. If his income comes from interest and dividends he is home free.
Want some simple framing? "No Tax for Billionaires. Or Their Grandkids"
Depending on your political leanings you can pick out your own villain. I picked Soros, Pelosi, and Oprah to torment the wingnuts, but could have picked Kennedys. On the other side you could pick from Peterson, Waltons, Scaifes, Kochs. Either way under the Roadmap none of them would have ever paid taxes on any of their income. Ever. Apply compound interest onto tax free billions and in a couple of generations they own what slivers of the world they don't already control.
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Cal Gal
March 11, 2010 12:50 PM
Just WTF DOES the CBO score?
A "neutral" party, the MSM always says about the CBO. But if they just take numbers they're given, WTF is their "scoring" worth?
To me, THAT's the big story. Not so much that Ryan is cooking the numbers -- everybody expects that from ReThuglicans -- but that the all-knowing, neutral umpire CBO just uses the numbers they're given?
That is NEWS to me. Can't the Dems give them their own numbers to make THEIR plans look good?
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Oeno
March 11, 2010 1:05 PM in reply to Cal Gal
I think you should actually read some CBO reports. They don't just "take numbers they're given". They have baseline assumptions about the way that current law is setup (so if they are asked to score President Obama's budget, they'll say "Well this is the baseline, assuming that all of the Bush tax cuts expire and you want to change X, Y, or Z. This is how it would look."). I know that beating up on the CBO has become a fun parlor game for some, but if you actually read the reports carefully, they are an honest broker. It's the people who seize on a single number in a document are to blame, not the CBO.
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Bruce Webb
March 11, 2010 1:12 PM in reply to Cal Gal
Well no.
CBO has two jobs. One is to respond to letters from Congressmen which may or may not include prospective legislative action. For example Sen. Hatch asked for a score of tort reform last October based on a description of what that would look like. http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=389 The answer he got back was as follows:
$4 billion a year in savings to the government not being quite the golden bullet Hatch was looking for, this one was quietly dropped.But the other job of CBO is to score actual legislation with set legislative language, so a lot less room to fiddle with numbers and assumptions. So the game is stacked, which is why you have to keep a sharp eye on the actual work product.
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PAvoter
March 11, 2010 12:59 PM
I am certain that when Fox News, Hannity, Beck, Rush, et.al. pick up on this deficit ballooning result, it will result in a quick death.
Unless of course, they spend all their time attacking the Tax Policy Center as a liberal cabal.
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breakinn
March 11, 2010 1:26 PM
So I'm curious, given Ryan's revenue projections, what would the deficit look like under Obama's plan? Has anyone looked at that? Will someone? I'd love an apple to apple number crunch under Ryan's fantasy scenario. Is that doable. Quick, do this for me.
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nfbloch
March 11, 2010 1:34 PM
Now it's up to the CBO to do an analysis of the revenue. Can the Dems request that?
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winston smith
March 11, 2010 3:10 PM in reply to nfbloch
Yes, Any one Dem can. If my congressman was a dem i would be on the phone right now asking him to do it.
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macsurf
March 11, 2010 1:54 PM
Here's a question.
I've lived abroad for the first year of the Obama administration. I voted for him, I still support him, although I am a little disappointed up to now in his style of governance.
My question is, are these right wing loonies, like this guy with his kill Social Security, cut taxes for the rich, and screw the middle class plan, not to mention the Tea Bagger crowd, really as viable and significant a political force as so much of the media, be it Faux News or CNN, have been portraying them to be?
Because if the answer is yes, I may just stay abroad because anyone who doesn't think or can't see there is a real element of fascism in these right wing movements is living in a fool's paradise.
So, somebody please, are the media giving these yahoos more air time than they really warrant, or is this movement real and growing?
I'm quite serious here, I want to know.
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Max Thrax
March 11, 2010 3:12 PM in reply to macsurf
Good question. Hard to tell. The media loves them some Tea Baggers because they provide the controversy and the crazy. They're also against HCR and two of the top 5 advertisers for the MSM are Big Pharma and the Health Insurance industry. That's a lot of incentive to create a mountain out of a molehill.
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mcrose68
March 11, 2010 4:32 PM in reply to macsurf
I hadn't believed they were viable, but then I didn't believe GW was viable either.
We'll have to see what November brings, but I'm afraid that . . . well lets just say that I'm afraid.
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bluesplashy
March 11, 2010 7:15 PM in reply to macsurf
The MSM takes the tea people very seriously. They are noisy, obnoxious, ready to talk to any camera and carry signs. They provide free and easy entertainment. The MSM will carry the tea people on past their natural life just as they did Ms. Clinton and the Pumas. Six hundred (600) tea people paid to go to their first annual shindig. Six hundred more paid to see their Queen Sarah Palin. Twelve hundred people do not elect a president. Twelve hundred thousand people do not elect a president.
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glblank
March 11, 2010 9:15 PM in reply to macsurf
The scrotum suckers will burn out in time same as Joe who was never a Plumber. There will be a new Right rage to follow though aqd yes the Dems will lose seats in November. How many depends on many factors as the Right Wave is about to crest or already has. The cycle is the Right rages, loses steam, Obama follows up, wins the day and Congressional Dems check the polls and do God knows what. By 2012, the Wing Nuts will realize that the GOP will not advance their cause far enough Right and may go Third party. The Tea Party party and the Repugs will have to choose between Romney, Ryan or Huckabee. Ryan's star will go nova quickly, ever hear the guy talk, still hasn't hit puberty. He is as exciting and Wonkish as Al Gore on the campaign trail. Romney can't decide what he is but probably will win the nomination and Palin will go Rogue giving Obama the White House and a silver Tea set to boot.But that ois just my nickle.98
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Jen R
March 11, 2010 2:09 PM
"Experts: Ryan Roadmap Balloons Deficits While Taxing Middle Class, Slashing Entitlements"
Shorter headline: Republican Plan is Republican
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drkwanda
March 11, 2010 3:09 PM
You write - The CBO doesn't analyze the impact of tax policy on revenue, so they were unable to estimate how Ryan's policy prescriptions would actually impact revenues--and just took Ryan's numbers at face value. Turns out, those numbers were pure fantasy.
I'm pretty sure estimating the impact of revenues of tax policy is mostly what CBO does. I think what they don't do and most economists realize they shouldn't do, is estimate dynamically the effect of tax policy on revenues. In other words, we know that a tax cut will trim X billion from current revenues. But we don't know how the economy will respond. It might not, but it might expand in response, which brings revenues in. The problem with the Right these days is that they trade unequivocally and across the board in the myth that if you cut taxes you can increase revenues. CBO won't go there. But with a few whole cloth assumptions, you can project anything you want. That's why they really don't think they are lying when they say, as Scott Brown did in the Massachusetts election, my plan to cut the deficit is to cut taxes on the wealthy by 25% because this will lead to economic growth and an increase in revenues. They're dead wrong. They are intellectually dishonest. But they really don't think they are lying or being intellectually dishonest.
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glblank
March 11, 2010 5:15 PM
Paul Ryan is a pathetic lap dog to John Boehner. He worships Ayn "the whore" Rand Liberutopianism and like Clarence Thomas denies that without the Nanny State both would be slinging burgers at Mickey's Supper Club and like Thomas can not stand on his own two feet without paternal approval, Scalia to Thomas, Boehner to Ryan before making a decision and regards the Nanny that kept each from swirling down the toilet with misdirected umbrage. In short they're both cowards.
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dem4life
March 11, 2010 7:18 PM
Ryan is a clown at best and a dirty pig at worst
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Nancy Irving
March 11, 2010 7:25 PM
Wow. Higher taxes, slashes Social Security and Medicare--AND adds trillions to the national debt!
Only a Republican could have thought this up.
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willdabeast
March 12, 2010 3:18 AM in reply to Nancy Irving
You forgot to add in the huge tax cuts for the rich.
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Peter Principle
March 11, 2010 8:22 PM
Seems to me that if the CBO can't score revenue projections, it has no business opining at all on the Ryan Plan's deficit impact -- or the impact of any other budget plans, for that matter.
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Oeno
March 11, 2010 9:59 PM in reply to Peter Principle
Who said the CBO can't score revenue projections? Have you ever read a CBO report?
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Bob White
March 11, 2010 8:32 PM
So I am to believe that paying higher taxes is only good for the rich? I thought it was "patriotic" to pay taxes. I hope people are smart enough to realize that you can't get something for nothing. There is not enough money coming in to pay for SS & Medicare. We have to either cut benefits or raise taxes and there is not enough revenue to be gotten merely by taxing the rich. If the middle class gets the benefit (of SS & Medicare) the middle class should pay for it. What's unfair about that?
As for whining about getting less tax revenue through the Ryan plan, there is where we on the right disagree with you on the left. We hold that higher gov't spending is no virtue. Less gov't revenue is not inherently a bad thing. We hope that the Ryan plan (or something like it) is adopted and less of our money is taken for expansive gov't.
The article seems to assume that spending will increase even as revenue declines. Less revenue is only bad if the massive spending hikes of Obama and this Congress are allowed to stand. If spending is brought in line with reduced revenue, the deficits will not appear.
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bobzaguy
March 12, 2010 1:09 AM in reply to Bob White
"there is where we on the right disagree with you on the left. We hold that higher gov't spending is no virtue. Less gov't revenue is not inherently a bad thing. We hope that the Ryan plan (or something like it) is adopted and less of our money is taken for expansive gov't.
The article seems to assume that spending will increase even as revenue declines. Less revenue is only bad if the massive spending hikes of Obama and this Congress are allowed to stand. If spending is brought in line with reduced revenue, the deficits will not appear."
After 8 years of your "disagreeable right" economic policies, Bush –running things for the "right"– managed to turn a surplus in to a multi trillion deficit, wage 2 wars off the books, increase government spending, increase government hiring and continue the Reagan deregulation of everything. He single-handedly created a larger deficit than all other presidents before him combined in his 8 year term.
So much for bringing spending in line with reduced revenue. This type of sound economic policy is deadly to the American public.
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willdabeast
March 12, 2010 5:01 AM in reply to Bob White
Did you even read the article? It's not raising taxes that help the rich, it's the fact that this bill is LOWERING taxes for the rich while raising it for everyone else.
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Bob White
March 11, 2010 8:43 PM
As for the whining about Ryan reducing Medicare spending, you are aware that the President's vaunted health care plan cuts $500 billion from Medicare spending by slashing what doctors get paid. Typically Congress votes to restore these cuts, knowing that doctors will refuse to take Medicare patients if they do not get paid fees that are close to what their other patients pay. If that were to happen, though, the so-called deficit neutrality of the health care plan vanishes and the health care plan ends up costing taxpayers big.
So either agree that it is okay to cut Medicare under certain circumstances, or stick to defending Medicare without change and admit that the President's health care bill will be a monstrously expensive new entitlement.
If we cannot adequately fund the entitlements we have (SS, Medicare & Medicaid), then it makes no sense to add another bigger than the rest.
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rhytonen
March 12, 2010 12:23 AM
So, he wants exactly what we have today - except without Social Security and Medicare....
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Thomas Fisher
March 12, 2010 12:45 AM
Every proposal by Republicans starts with a tax-cut for the upper-class, followed by exploding deficits, and ending with cuts in services for everyone else. It's a winning formula that has worked every year for about 30 years.
Evidently the middle-class has become so small that proposing tax-increases on them doesn't hurt election prospects. The upper class, coupled with the massive and ill-informed lower-class, is all that's needed for Republican victories.
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SkeeterVT
March 12, 2010 5:35 AM
This time is long overdue to make it abundantly clear to the public that the Republican Party's sole mission is to protect the wealthy at the expense of everyone else. Congressman Ryan's long-term budget plan is proof positive of this.
The party founded by Abraham Lincoln in 1854 as an anti-slavery party and replaced the Whigs in the 1860s has degenerated into an oligarchal party.
Today's GOP is the party OF the rich, BY the rich, FOR the rich -- and to hell with everybody else!
I say TO HELL with the Republican Party!
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Swift63
March 12, 2010 9:13 AM
It doesn't matter to the right as long as they collapse Social Security and Medicare. They're willing to lie and cheat and go kamikaze on the middle class as long as they can gut these programs by FDR and LBJ which arose from the days when they had no power.
This is no longer the party of Lincoln, but the party of George Wallace.
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glblank
March 20, 2010 12:59 PM
Pretty interesting position for a boy raised on entitlements. The Clarence Thomas of Congress
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June 13, 2010 4:19 AM
I was reading an analysis of this "plan" the other day, and although I was suspicious, I had no idea how truly awful it was--it would totally destroy the middle class, an almost complete shifting of the tax burden from the top 1% to everyone else. Elimination of the estate tax, capital gains tax, and massive cuts in income taxes for the very wealthy.
Even the talking heads on MSNBC are fluffing this guy and telling him what a serious person he his, all without discussing a word about what's actually in the plan. Of course he sits there with a smile on his face, soaking it all up.
Oh, and I didn't even mention that he would destroy Social Security and Medicare.
m65 kamagra
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October 1, 2010 6:25 PM
First, I'd like to say how inspiring it is to see FreeRide the dog and Shoto the cat getting along. A black cat and blonde dog nonetheless. Kind of gives me hope. Of course I also agree with them both and I'm not a cat or a dog. It is sad how our govt. officials just manage our resources atrociously. If these people were estate planning for your parents they would have died due to insufficient funds long before you could have been conceived. www.estateplanninginfoblog.com
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