Is Russ Feingold In Trouble This Fall?

Three recent polls -- each not without its critics -- show Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) trailing in a hypothetical match up with former Wisconsin governor and Bush administration cabinet member Tommy Thompson (R). He hasn't decided whether he'll seek the GOP nomination yet, but is rumored to be seriously considering it.

If he does, polling suggests Thompson could depose one of the strongest progressive voices in the Senate. With the two latest polls added in, the TPM Poll Average for the race shows Thompson leading Feingold by a margin of 46-42.8.

Media reports have picked up on the polls, painting the picture of an incumbent on the ropes. The Feingold campaign rejects that assertion outright, claiming that the polls are the problem, not the Senator.

Feingold's slide began in January, according to the TPM average. On the 26th, Rasmussen released a poll showing Thompson ahead 47-43. The margin held in Rasmussen's second poll of the race, which came on Feb. 17.

Rasmussen has many critics among progressive and Democratic communities, which claim that the pollster's proprietary model for determining likely voters skews results toward the GOP. Rasmussen has dismissed those claims and defended its results as more accurate than other pollsters.

Last week, the conservative think tank Wisconsin Policy Research Institute confirmed the Rasmussen results, showing Thompson ahead in the hypothetical match up 51-39. A WPRI poll from last October also showed Thompson ahead 43-39.

WPRI does not include cell phones in its polling, according to the group's polling releases, a decision that some experts say tilts results away from younger voters, who more and more do not have land line phones. And in recent days, the institute has been the subject of media reports suggesting its pollster slanted results to support WPRI's policy aims. Further aggravating Democrats in the state, the firm is run by two ex-Thompson aides. WPRI has said its polls are accurate.

"First off, neither Rasmussen or WPRI are credible polls," Feingold strategist John Kraus told me in an email conversation this afternoon. "There will be a lot of polls between now and Election Day eight months from now."

The data from all the polls suggests that Thompson's singular role in Wisconsin, a state he governed for 14 years before becoming Health and Human Services secretary in 2001, could be playing a role in that result. When matched up against another potential GOP opponent, developer Terrence Wall, Feingold is ahead.

The only bright spot for Feingold in polling against Thompson came from the Democratic firm PPP, which reported Feingold ahead of Thompson in its survey of a hypothetical match up in November. That poll showed Feingold leading Thompson by 50-41.

Kraus also said that regardless of what they say, polls aren't his main concern. "Our focus will not be on polls and horserace politics," he said. "It will be on continuing to build a strong grassroots campaign that is organizing people in every corner of the state."

He declined to answer when I asked if the campaign saw Thompson as the Feingold's biggest threat. "No matter who the Republican Party puts forward in September, we will continue to talk with voters face-to-face about Russ' record of independence and his hard work to move our state forward." Kraus said.

Kraus told me the campaign is already in full swing, and laying the groundwork for what could be a tough race. "We are doing our fourth statewide canvass this weekend in 57 communities across the state while Thompson makes plans for an exploratory committee," he said, referring to Thompson's early steps into the race announced last week.

"Unlike any of our current or potential opponents, we have been tested," Kraus said. "We are ready."

Late Update: NRSC spokesperson Brian Walsh responded to the Feingold camp's take on the recent polling.

"It's interesting that the Feingold campaign would dismiss these polls while at the same time they've already started attacking Governor Thompson publicly," he said. "The reality is that they know, as we do, that Senator Feingold is vulnerable because his record of supporting the failed stimulus, supporting government run health care, and supporting more rights for captured terrorists stands at odds with a majority of voters in his state."

"Whether its Governor Thompson or someone else who Republican voters choose as their candidate," he added, "we believe that this will be a very competitive race in November."