The new survey of Missouri by Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Rep. Roy Blunt narrowly ahead in the race for the open Senate seat of retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond. More importantly, however, other numbers show that the Democrats could have a very tough time ahead in this perennial swing state.
The numbers, among registered voters: Blunt 45%, Dem Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 41%, with a ±4.4% margin of error. Carnahan edges the other Republican candidate, state Sen. Chuck Purgason, by 42%-38%. The TPM Poll Average gives Blunt a lead of 47.0%-40.7% over Carnahan.
Below the surface, President Obama’s approval rating is only 43%, with 52% disapproval. In addition, voters said by a 51%-42% margin that Republicans should work to repeal the health care bill. And voters oppose the health care bill by 54%-37%.
It’s particularly notable that Carnahan’s personal favorability is actually better than Blunt’s, and yet Blunt is still leading in the horse race. Both are in negative territory, but Blunt is much worse off at only 25% favorable to 41% unfavorable, compared to Carnahan’s 38%-43%.
“The Missouri Senate race has very little to do with Roy Blunt or Robin Carnahan and everything to do with Barack Obama right now,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “If his numbers don’t improve it will be very hard for Carnahan to win.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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