The new survey of Ohio by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman a narrow lead in the race for the open seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich. But more importantly, a lot will ultimately ride on President Obama’s popularity or lack thereof in November — and as of right now, Obama is not doing too well in Ohio.
The poll of registered voters finds that Portman, a former Congressman and ex-Bush administration official, leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 41%-36%, and has a statistically insignificant edge of 38%-37% over Dem Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with a ±3.9% margin of error.
The TPM Poll Average currently gives Portman a lead of 40.8%-37.2% over Fisher, and a lead of 40.9%-37.9% over Brunner.
By and large, all the candidates are unknowns, and thus the undecideds are quite high. The pollster’s analysis notes the importance of President Obama: “Given the obscurity of all the candidates the key to this race may be how Ohio voters feel about Barack Obama, and that’s not very good. 53% of the state disapproves of the President’s job performance with only 40% giving him good marks. Portman’s lead may be more a reflection of that and a good political climate for Republicans than anything else.”
“None of the candidates in Ohio is really standing out right now,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “But if Barack Obama’s numbers in the state remain this low it’s not likely to elect a Democratic Senator this year. His popularity could be the deciding factor in this race.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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