
The new Rasmussen poll of Arizona has Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the 2008 Republican nominee for president, with only a single-digit lead over his challenger in the Republican primary, former Arizona Congressman J.D. Hayworth, and the incumbent McCain is under 50% support.
The numbers: McCain 48%, Hayworth 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. McCain had a much better lead of 53%-31% two months ago, shortly after the announcement that his former running mate Sarah Palin would come to Arizona to campaign for him. Back in November, when Hayworth was first making moves to get into the race, McCain had a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-43%.
Hayworth has bee running from McCain's right on issues such as immigration and the Wall Street bailout, and has been attempting to tap into the Tea Party movement for support. If McCain were to lose -- or if it were even close -- it sure would be a huge reversal of fortune for the man who led his party in a national election just two years ago.
farnsworth
March 18, 2010 9:33 AM
As bad as McCain is, Hayworth is worse.
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Michael A
March 18, 2010 9:47 AM in reply to farnsworth
Isn't it great. Arizona would have herman munster and an avowed racist who stole from poor indians. This is Excellent News for dems.
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tonigo
March 18, 2010 4:23 PM in reply to Michael A
Who are the Democratic candidates in the Senate race? Any of them have a shot if Hayworth gets the nod on the Republican side?
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mld678
March 18, 2010 1:46 PM in reply to farnsworth
JD Hayworth, right about now, makes McCain look like an angel. He's a good leader and will fight for policies with the voice of the people in his ear. JD? he's just a wingnut who has become synonymous with "deal-maker"
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mophan
March 18, 2010 9:34 AM
AZ Dems need to get their act together. McCain is beatable -- Hayworth would be even more vulnerable than McCain if he should get the nomination.
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jdb316
March 18, 2010 9:43 AM in reply to mophan
Problem is there aren't a lot of prominent Dems in Arizona, and most of what ones there are either focused on keeping their current jobs in a tough year for Democrats. Some of the others are running for Governor, which was a seemingly more winnable race.
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mld678
March 18, 2010 1:57 PM in reply to mophan
McCain has fought hard for our Nation's Security, he fought against the government run joke of a healthcare reform, he continues to fight hard against earmarks, big spending and big government. Washington would be a better place if we had more McCain's and less dems...
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farnsworth
March 18, 2010 2:16 PM in reply to mld678
You say that, but we all know you are really stupid, so we laugh.
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Shoto
March 18, 2010 3:05 PM in reply to mld678
And you're fighting hard for all our comedy benefit. Very nice.
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LarsThorwald
March 18, 2010 9:46 AM
Here's how I would love to see this play out.
Palin stumps for McCain. McCain loses. Palin's kingmaker credibility tarnishes a bit. Lieberman and Graham seen in the Hart Senate Office Building holding each other and sobbing hot tears of rage. Bitter, bitter concession speech by McCain.
Strong Dem opponebnt announces. Hayworth's true colors shine. More stupid statements like Man-Horse-Love. Polls narrow. GOP pours a lot of money into Arizona, money that could go elsewhere.
In that scenario, if a Dem wins, hallelujah. If Hayworth wins, it was a Republican seat anyway, but McCain is no longer on my television set as David Gregory's sidekick every other goddamned Sunday.
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rwp
March 18, 2010 9:49 AM in reply to LarsThorwald
Perfect scenario....
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nanorich
March 18, 2010 9:59 AM in reply to LarsThorwald
Yeah, the prospect of Lieberman crying like a little girl is very attractive.
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lkt
March 18, 2010 10:03 AM in reply to LarsThorwald
Perfect. I couldn't have come up with a better scenario...well, maybe I would add in - McCain uses up all of his campaign cash to defend his seat so Cindy Lou has to pitch in her own money, so much of it that they have to sell eight of their homes for financing. The ninth home goes into foreclosure. They have to move to public housing and live off of McCain's pension. Cindy Lou can't take that lifestyle and leaves him for Ms. Lindsey to become his beard. Shortly after their marriage, Ms. Lindsey gets caught up in a Massa-like scandal involving Joe Lieberman. Ms. Lindsey and Lieberman resign from the Senate and take advantage of DC's new marriage law. They rescue McCain from the Arizona projects, move to Utah, and the three of them live happily ever after.
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lousgirl84
March 18, 2010 10:43 AM in reply to lkt
That wasn't bad either..lol
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ondioline
March 18, 2010 11:57 AM in reply to lkt
I liked where Lars was going... I thought that was a slam dunk... But you went the extra mile! hahahaha
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Leftflank
March 18, 2010 2:01 PM in reply to lkt
Perfect, but what would Romney say?
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lousgirl84
March 18, 2010 10:42 AM in reply to LarsThorwald
That was great. Enjoyed that. If only.......
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Brownbagger
March 18, 2010 10:56 AM in reply to LarsThorwald
I like that, except Gregory, even if McCain should lose, pitch a hissy fit, catch himself a heart attack and die, Gregory would prop the carcass in a chair, ask softball questions, and marvel at the answers.
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Powkat
March 18, 2010 12:13 PM in reply to LarsThorwald
Agreed except McCain will still be on the Sunday shows as an 'elder (elderly?) statesman'. Addictions are an ugly thing.
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Tres
March 18, 2010 2:41 PM in reply to LarsThorwald
...But then there's Hayworth on national TV: Glen Beck's new sidekick >
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expat46
March 18, 2010 10:01 AM
In case you missed it, McCain and Lieberman have introduced a bill that would give the President the ability suspend habeus corpus for American citizens suspected of terrorism.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/c/m/cmaukonen/2010/03/just-when-you-thought-some-sen.php?ref=reccafe
If I were Hayworth I would make hay out of this... :)
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whosiwhatzit
March 18, 2010 10:04 AM
McCain is a RINO and ran a miserable race in 2008. He should do like Parker Griffith did and switch parties, that way he wouldn't have to trip over his shoelaces as he lurched to the left to reach across the isle. Democrats will lose miserably if AZ conservatives rally around Hayworth.
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Michael A
March 18, 2010 10:09 AM in reply to whosiwhatzit
That is hilarious. Now mcbush is a RINO? Hayworth is the way to go and a winner. Toooo f*cking funny.
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Dennis M
March 18, 2010 10:39 AM in reply to whosiwhatzit
You're absolutely right! Dems are most fearful of candidates like J.D. Hayworth, Tom Tancredo, Rick Santorum and Sarah Palin. If the GOP wants to win they should nominate people like the above.
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duck_tape
March 18, 2010 10:17 AM
is this the best the GOP can do? how sad. The GOP list of folks needing a DSM IV diagnosis include Hayworth, Bachman, Boehner, Bunning, Inhofe, the AG of Virginia, Jim Demint, and Andre Bauer who compared welfare recipients to stray animals. Then Mr. Beck tells us to avoid churches preaching Christian action, and Liz Cheney becomes Joe McCarthy redux.
And as a child I thought Goldwater was bad....the GOP does nothing constructive. It's existence is purely a strategy of negative, blocking input.
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linnylinder
March 18, 2010 10:19 AM
Arizona Dems do have a candidate to run against the Republican. Hi is Rodney Glassman, the Vice-Mayor with both a law degree and PhD in Arid Land Resource Sciences, and he is a U.S. Air Force JAG Reserve Officer.
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Michael A
March 18, 2010 10:33 AM in reply to linnylinder
Is he running? Seems like a straight up, good guy from what I can tell from a quick web search.
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Walter Mitty
March 18, 2010 12:41 PM in reply to Michael A
He is running, but will not announce yet because there is a pressing city council budget issue that he believes he needs to stick around for.
Glassman is actually a pretty solid candidate in a anti-incumbent/outsider election year. I think he could actually give McCain a run for his money as Glassman is really young and the juxtaposition between McCain and Glassman would be glaring. Given the way McCain has had to veer hard right given the Hayworth challenge, a lot of centrists might be turned off.
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WaitWut?
March 18, 2010 5:14 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
He's definitely running? I keep waiting for some news, but haven't heard. I signed up for his emails and said that I would volunteer, nothing...yet.
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Walter Mitty
March 18, 2010 9:11 PM in reply to WaitWut?
Yeah. He can't make it official because he'd have to resign from the vice-mayor post at the same time and feels he needs to make a key budget vote in early April.
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Prof Wagstaff
March 18, 2010 10:43 AM
Palin will be in Arizona schtupping for McCain.
Oops, sorry, I meant to say 'stumping' for McCain.
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boycottfaux
March 18, 2010 11:19 AM in reply to Prof Wagstaff
I think Grampa hasn't 'schtupped' in a long time, Prof . .
Maybe that's why his memory is 'gone'!!
I just hope Hayworth wins. Good for Arizona if they elect him!!
Wonder if he still has any of that Abramoff $$$ left over??
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Max Thrax
March 18, 2010 11:48 AM
Hayworth is gonna win. AZ is absolutely filled with old white people who are scared of brown people and McCain is the one who wanted amnesty, and THAT, they do not forgive. Rasmussen would be more supportive of establishment GOP candidates, so I have to assume it's closer than this even.
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mld678
March 18, 2010 3:04 PM in reply to Max Thrax
I highly doubt that Hayworth will pull ahead -- McCain's just going to keep gaining momentum. Arizona is beginning to see that they don't want a big spending, Mr. Me Too, who has convicted felon friends. McCain for the win
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LJG
March 18, 2010 11:56 AM
Hayworth could win, even if he is behind in the polls. His voters are far more passionate than McCain's. Also, if McCain does win the GOP nomination, many of the Hayworth voters will be angry and stay home at the general election. Democrats would be wise to put up their best candidate and invest money in a fight for this seat. Janet Napolitano could beat either of these men. In a way it is a shame she went to Homeland Security.
Arizona is a state Democrats should go after. Last time around the odds were better in Arizona than Tennessee. Kyl could have been beaten.
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Walter Mitty
March 18, 2010 12:46 PM in reply to LJG
I think Napolitano will go for Kyl's seat in 2012. Some believe Arizona would have went for Obama if McCain wasn't on the ticket.
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WaitWut?
March 18, 2010 5:17 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
I couldn't believe how close it came. McCain barely squeeked by here.
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texasspudro
March 18, 2010 11:57 AM
Ever since Napolitano left for Homeland Security, Dems in Arizona have been pretty thin. The likely candidate against McCain is Rodney Glassman who is currenty VICE-mayor of Tucson. His two advantages are that he's self financing and is crazy enough to think that a city councilman could beat a 6 term incumbent.
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Walter Mitty
March 18, 2010 12:44 PM in reply to texasspudro
It is an anti-incumbent/outsider/let's-throw-the-bums-out election climate, and Glassman could make his vice-mayor experience into a positive saying he's connected to the folks at a personal level whereas McCain has been in Washington for 30 years. Glassman is young, charismatic, and has a really impressive resume.
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Kenneth Thomas
March 18, 2010 3:16 PM in reply to texasspudro
Well, I hope she runs against Kyl for sure. Obama was not very strategic in his choices for the Cabinet, though he sure wasn't helped by some of the bad choices for Senate the governors made.
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Walter Mitty
March 18, 2010 12:48 PM
Also even if McCain wins - he might pull a reverse Lieberman. He'll be very pissed at the wingnut right for primarying him and making him work for the primary and might come back very moderate to stick it to them, knowing he's untouchable for six more years and this is likely his last term.
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ReaganEra
March 18, 2010 1:31 PM
McCain is going to get re-elected. As long as he keeps doing what he's dong and JD continues to look like a complete jacka** on National TV and Radio. Both candidates definitely have flaws, but McCain is by far the superior candidate.
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Leftflank
March 18, 2010 2:34 PM
Great choices, old fart vs. young & upcoming turd. I'm sure there are a few other considerations, I just can't think of any.
Seven points, that's only a touchdown. I'll take the turd to pull it out in the fourth quarter.
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Jane
March 18, 2010 3:01 PM
WHAT?!? Was this poll done months ago? I mean, JD is messing up and having foot-in-mouth moments left and right - how could anyone want him to represent them? I certainly don't as an Arizonian. I'm voting McCain!
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Shoto
March 18, 2010 3:04 PM
From Rage-o-holic to Certified Wingnut. Change we can believe in.
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Kaneblues
March 18, 2010 3:17 PM
McCain suspends campaign over crisis...
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ColtonAron
March 18, 2010 4:44 PM
I have a hard time believing that many people can look beyond the disgusting past of JD, the lack of an intelligent interview, and the lack of peer support to say they could vote for him??!!
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henryh
March 18, 2010 10:32 PM
Napalitano is a complete joke, she was in AZ and she is even more of a joke in Washington. As for the election btwn JD and McCain, it is not only 7 points. I have spoken to nobody who would even consider voting for JD. JD has a terrible reputation in AZ. JD was not only voted the dumbest member in Congress by his peers when he was there but he has a problem associating with criminals. NO thank you on JD, no more corruption needed in Washington!
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