Poll: Rand Paul Surges Ahead In Kentucky Senate Race

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Kentucky finds that Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), has been succeeding in his anti-establishment, Tea Party-style campaign for the Republican nomination for Senate.

The numbers: Paul 40%, Secretary of State Trey Grayson 28%. In the last Kos/R2K poll, conducted back in late August and early September 2009, Grayson was ahead by 40%-25%. Grayson started the race as the clear choice of the party establishment, but Paul has thus far been able to mobilize conservative activists and bloggers. The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 42.3%-25.3% in the Republican primary.

For the Democratic nomination, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo leads Attorney General Jack Conway by 47%-31%. Mongiardo was also the 2004 nominee for Senate against Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring this year, with then-state Senator Mongiardo making it a 51%-49% race in a red state in a Republican year. This was widely thought to be due to Bunning's own gaffes, however, which are not a factor anymore.

In the general election matches this time, both GOP candidates maintain leads over the Democrats. Paul leads Mongiardo by 46%-37%, and Paul leads Conway by 45%-39%. Grayson leads Mongiardo by 43%-38%, and Grayson leads Conway by 44%-36%.