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Poll: Reid's Still In A Deep Hole, But The Tea Party Could Save Him
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)
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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is still way behind a slew of GOP candidates in his bid to win a fifth term in the Senate, according to a new poll. But there's a glimmer of hope for Reid contained in the numbers -- if the Tea Party (which appears to be a real thing in Nevada) mounts a serious candidate in the race, Reid could find himself back in a competitive fight.
The details are all contained in the newest Mason-Dixon poll of Nevada, published in the Las Vegas Review-Journal this weekend.
Reid trails all GOP candidates tested in the poll, a position he's found himself in for more than a few polls now. Former state GOP chair Sue Lowden leads the GOP field for the nomination in the Mason-Dixon poll. The current TPM Poll Average"TPM Poll Average shows Lowden beating Reid by a 48.8-39.1 margin
The race is expected to include at least one Tea Party candidate, Las Vegas business leader Scott Ashjian. And there's evidence in the Mason-Dixon poll that Reid would benefit, should Ashjian become a serious third candidate in the race (which is a big if). The pollster pitted Reid against a nameless Republican and a nameless Tea Party candidate in a hypothetical matchup. Asked how they'd vote, Nevadans gave Reid a slight edge in three-way race. Reid got 36% of the vote, the GOP candidate 32 and the Tea Party candidate 18%.
It's not surprising that a Tea Party candidate would be more damaging to a Republican nominee than a Democrat. Polls have suggested that for months. But for Reid, one of the few Democrats who may actually face a field that includes a Tea Party nominee this year, the continued divide among conservatives between the tea party movement and the Republican Party is a rare bit of good news for the embattled Democratic majority leader.
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bpurcell
March 1, 2010 11:32 AM
If I were Reid, I wouldn't hold out hope for a split conservative vote. A hypothetical vote is easy to do when there's no consequences. My suggestion to Reid is something he'll never do; don't run for reelection. Seven months is a long time in politics, but I feel Reid is likely to lose. He should lead by example and work this year as if it's his last. Show the other likely Dem losers that it's better to walk away accomplishing something than to squirm your way around and still lose.
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KeithL
March 1, 2010 11:48 AM in reply to bpurcell
I like the sentiment. The only problem being, is there a viable Democratic candidate who would have a better chance than Weak Reid? I'd rather not automatically cede any seats to the Republics.
If he would agree to stand down as Majority Leader next year, even if re-elected, I would throw him some love myself! He's not a bed Democrat, just an awful Majority Leader!
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KeithL
March 1, 2010 12:20 PM in reply to KeithL
Whoops! He's not a BAD Democrat. I WILL use the Preview. I will! I will!
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EastWest
March 1, 2010 2:14 PM in reply to KeithL
Whichever kind he is, bad or bed, he really is a lousy Leader.
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 2:17 PM in reply to KeithL
That's why we Nevada Democrats will vote for Reid...any republican is far worst than Reid.
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JorgeOrwell
March 1, 2010 12:38 PM in reply to bpurcell
The only things that could save Harry are 5% unemployment or the passage of a Public Option. I think we know neither of those is gonna happen, so it looks like he'll be working for the pharma/insurance lobby, this time next year.
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CityGuy
March 1, 2010 11:51 AM
Yeah but the sight of Rethugs eating their own is always somehow uplifting. This country would end up better off if more teabaggers challenged "mainstream" GOPers.
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runfastandwin
March 1, 2010 12:11 PM
Reid should retire. 4 terms is plenty. That said, it seems he has been "in serious trouble" in every one of those 4 elections, and yet, there he sits.
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hollywood
March 1, 2010 12:44 PM
My god you people are fair weather friends! Harry Reid has done a remarkable job GIVEN the fucked up system we have in the Senate. I always feel that we talk endlessly about how the rules are so completely ridiculous and yet that is his fault? How exactly did all you experts on Senate rules figure you would have navigated this last year of complete obstruction and Democratic defection? There is no answer except stomp your feet and fire everyone ...... not an answer at all ..... Now you say you would rather have one more rethuglican vote for chaos than one more Democratic vote for reason. Even a conservative Democrat is still a yes vote on many many issues but another rethuglican is just a no vote on EVERYTHING YOU CARE ABOUT!
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FreeRider
March 1, 2010 1:26 PM in reply to hollywood
Amen! There's a word for people who say Reid is a bad majority leader--STUPID!
Reid did something no other Democratic majority leader has EVER done--get 100% of his caucus to vote for a controversial legislative reform. LBJ and Mike Mansfield never even came close.
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Darrius
March 1, 2010 1:31 PM in reply to FreeRider
People like to forget that LBJ had 67 or 68 Senators in his party.
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FreeRider
March 1, 2010 2:27 PM in reply to Darrius
People seem to forget that 21 of those 67 Democratic Senators voted against Civil Rights.
People seem to forget that it was Democrats who led the filibusters against the Democratic agenda.
People seem to forget that LBJ/Mansfield could get Republican support whereas Reid can not.
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I love this country
March 2, 2010 5:49 AM in reply to FreeRider
But these are not the Goldwater Republicans, who had compassion and care for America, these are the neo-con, crazed, hate people who don’t agree with them, pro-corporation, anti-middle, anti-poor, part of no, obstruction, want the Democrats and the President to fail, hypocrisy, lead by one of the all time biggest liars, Boss Limbaugh, Fox Circus, and 450 other windbags who spread their propaganda and falsehoods. Did I miss anything? The proof is in the pudding, remembers the Boss saying he hated liberalism and wanted the President to fail? Or DeMint saying if we can stop Obama’s Health Care, this will be his Waterloo. That is proof enough that they put politics in front of what America needs.
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EastWest
March 1, 2010 2:16 PM in reply to FreeRider
Here, FreeRider. Drink some more Kool-Aid.
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 2:19 PM in reply to EastWest
get a life
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FreeRider
March 1, 2010 2:30 PM in reply to EastWest
So, you're lugging around a big jug of kool-aid just in case you run into someone who wants a drink?
More proof that you're a dumbass.
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lousgirl84
March 2, 2010 8:32 AM in reply to FreeRider
Great post as usual FreeRider. I'm not jumping on the I hate Harry bandwagon either. I don't even count him out yet. This guy has a tough re-election fight every time and he seems to win. I'm not saying the climate is the same now, but I still think he hasn't been a terrible leader considering the makeup of the senate
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Cal Gal
March 1, 2010 1:00 PM
Don't count the Man from Searchlight out yet. It is WAY to soon to predict November races. Talk to me in October, when there's a real candidate, a real campaign, and (hopefully) a passed health care reform bill for Democrats to PRAISE.
Every single POPULAR item in the HCR bill will be a platform to run on. No one will have to defend their votes on "the bill" unless they are too dumb to break it down and say "Republicans voted AGAINST x,y,z."
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bpurcell
March 1, 2010 2:04 PM
I was probably a little harsh with the suggestion that he should not run for reelection, especially since there is no other viable Dem option (except maybe the mayor of LV). But the rest of my argument stands. He should act in a way that says he's willing to lose in order to get something accomplished. And he should use himself as an example for the other Dems that have a high likelihood of losing in November.
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hollywood
March 1, 2010 6:07 PM in reply to bpurcell
You know I actually think he is doing that right now. I think if he was all about reelection there would be the whining about centrism and bipartisan suicide etc... but Harry is going all in to give Obama a landmark piece of reform and head us all in a new direction. Dems EVERYWHERE can run on the bill because every single piece of it is constructive moves in the progressive direction. Not as progressive as I would like but absolutely going my way. Thanks Harry!
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Beetlejuice
March 1, 2010 2:23 PM
By the way, the mayor of LV represented The Mob in Las Vegas. You really want him to replace Reid? Before you criticize Nevada politics, politicians and the public how about learning something about it first.
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FreeRider
March 1, 2010 2:31 PM in reply to Beetlejuice
You're not actually suggesting that people know what they're talking about before they jump in with erroneous knee-jerk bullshit, are you?
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bpurcell
March 1, 2010 4:33 PM in reply to Beetlejuice
First, I had no intention of saying the mayor should run. I'm just stating a fact that he's someone that would consider it, and polls have shown he might do well. You're right that I have no idea about Nevada politics; I never claimed to.
I'm just using Reid as an example of all the Dems out there with a real risk of losing their seats. Since he's the majority leader in the Senate, he can lead by example of how to react to a possible election loss.
I have nothing against Reid personally or politically. If he wins, great. But realistically, he is one of the Senators most likely to lose their seats.
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libdevil
March 1, 2010 2:47 PM
If the teabaggers really want to stifle the Democratic agenda, they couldn't pull a better strategic move than getting Reid reelected. Of course, if this happens it'll be because of the frothing anti-everything rage of the teabaggers, because 'strategic' isn't really among their attributes, but still.
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Leftflank
March 1, 2010 5:25 PM
The tea partiers are an enigma. For any supposed good that they do, there is a hidden bad (bad for them, that is). For all the frustration of watching them in action, they do us the favor of seeing them in action. If they are actually helping the GOP in any short term way, they are damaging them in the biggger picture of being tied to the radical & shallow views that they cling to.
The tea partiers are the proverbial red-haired step child that the GOP is stuck with.
My apologies to the red heads of the world.
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Rob R.
March 1, 2010 8:35 PM
The lack of a proper run-off system is embarrassing. Allowing someone to be elected to office with under 40% of the vote is just silly... it's even less than a filibusterable minority!
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Greg G
March 16, 2010 9:42 AM
Yes, yes, yes!!!! Just as Rush Limbaugh encouraged Repugs during the 2008 Dem Pres primary to do 'Operation Chaos' Dem should encourage TeaBagger candidates and if necessary fund TeaBagger 3rd party efforts. Sow division w/in the teaBagger movement and between teaBaggers and the Repug party...Yes, yes, yes!!!! Divide and conquer..by any legal means necessary to keep these stalth bigots and willfully ignorant partisans out of power.
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