Poll: Specter Surge In Pennsylvania

A new poll out this morning shows Sen. Arlen Specter on top for the first time in a while in the Pennsylvania Senate race. The new Quinnipiac poll shows Specter ahead of GOP nominee Pat Toomey by a 7 points, 49-42.

The new poll is good news for Specter, but internal numbers inside the poll show he still faces a tough road to reelection. The TPM Poll Average for the Specter-Toomey race shows Toomey ahead 43.8-41.7.

In the Democratic primary race, Specter appears to be opening up a huge gap with Rep. Joe Sestak, the choice of most progressives. The Q poll shows Specter leading Sestak, 53-29.

The TPM Poll Average for the Specter-Sestak matchup shows Specter ahead by a margin of 43.4-29.2.

Though the horse race numbers in today's Q poll suggest smooth sailing for Specter, other results from the poll show he's still vulnerable in his bid to keep the Senate seat he first won in 1980.

"Specter's edge is that he is so much better known than his challengers at this point," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. "Only 11 percent of voters say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion," said Brown, "while 74 percent of voters including 73 percent of Democrats say Sestak is too unfamiliar for them to have an opinion."

Specter has done a good job battling back against the negative attacks from Sestak and Toomey, Brown said. "Arlen Specter seems to be having a good winter politically," he said, citing Specter's gains from the last Q poll that showed him tied with Toomey. As for Sestak, Brown said "there remains no evidence that [he] has made much progress."

According to Brown, Sestak's remaining name ID problems could be his undoing in the May 18 primary. Where Toomey has almost a year to close the name ID gap with Specter and convince voters he's the better choice before the November election, Sestak "has a much shorter timeline," Brown said.

Pennsylvania voters seem especially open to replacing Specter, which gives Toomey room run in a race that most polls still show him leading. The Quinnipiac poll found that just 38% of voters think Specter deserves another term, while 52% say it's time for him to leave the Senate. That number has remained basically steady since last October.

Quinnipiac polled 1,452 Pennsylvanians on Feb. 22-28 to produce today's numbers. The margin of error for the poll is 2.6%.